Weekdays (8-11 May, 2023) Thread.

[keysersoze123]

Tuesday's are notoriously difficult to project from partial data. But Empire has looked at this data for a long time and so he should be close. But I would rather wait for studio estimates tomorrow. 

[Spidey Freak]

8 hours ago, Nate said:

What am I missing here? Would genuinely love the reasoned, data-influenced argument for an above 2.7 multiplier.

 

The important thing to note is that GotG2 had May pretty much all to itself. There wasn't a Fast & Furious film opening in its 3rd frame (F8 incidentally released a month previously) and it had franchise killer Pirates 5 in its 4th frame instead of a Disney Renaissance live action remake (BatB came out more than a month earlier).

 

So yeah, ## of screens might be an issue 3rd weekend on, something GotG2 didn't have to worry about.

[Liiviig 1998]

Monday number was standard drop so really didn't get the whole sub "50% drop  second weekend is coming"

 

Let's see what Wednesday number brings but expecting drop closer to 55% than 50% which is still pretty good.

 

Think this has a shot at topping guardians 1 but 315-320m more likely

 

800m+ looks a done deal which is great considering how things looked last week.

Topping guardians 2 box office is also in sight depending how much past 500 it goes OS.

 

But yeah some competition is coming .

 

 

[Unfitclock]

If guardians grosses over 7 million tomorrow than a sub 50% drop is still very much in play

[Liiviig 1998]

34 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

If guardians grosses over 7 million tomorrow than a sub 50% drop is still very much in play

7.5

6.75

14

25

18

57-58m .

 

It needs 7.5 to have a shot . But I'm thinking 53-55m second weekend.

[Flamengo81]

3 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Reddit has been very silly the last few days (and in general) but I can’t honestly defend the 80-105 either when my range at the time was like 110-140 😅   

I guess with poor critic reception and not so good WOM (which were certainly possible) below Ant-Man numbers were definitely achiavable and @M37 was probably taking that into account when calculating the worst possible number. I don't exactly agreed with the 80M either at the time, but around 100M certainly was possible with things going wrong.

[Mr Roark]

It would need a 2.9+ multi to cross $850M ww.

Don’t see that happening, honestly.

[Mulder]

11 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

It would need a 2.9+ multi to cross $850M ww.

Don’t see that happening, honestly.

No one's really saying 850 as far as I can see. It only needs a 2.6 to cross 800 (Which is what most people are saying).

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, Mulder said:

No one's really saying 850 as far as I can see. It only needs a 2.6 to cross 800 (Which is what most people are saying).

People are definitely saying 850 because it has a pretty solid shot at 850  

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

People are definitely saying 850 because it has a pretty solid shot at 850  

I mean some are, and if it does great, but at least on this page I was only seeing 800.

[stripe]

11M would be just 1.6M behind of MoM first Tuesday. 

It's a 22% increase, pretty much the same as Guardians2, which grossed 12.1M

 

Guardians2 second weekend was 65M

MoM second weekend was 61M

 

Looking at Wednesday:

30% drop would mean 7.7M

35% drop would mean 7.15M

38% drop, 6.82M

MOM had a 28% drop, Guardians2 had a 38% drop

 

 

[Mr Roark]

2 hours ago, Mulder said:

No one's really saying 850 as far as I can see. It only needs a 2.6 to cross 800 (Which is what most people are saying).

Charlie said it tbf…

[VanillaSkies]

3 hours ago, Mr Roark said:

Charlie said it tbf…

Sometimes I feel like this is a Kindergarten classroom 😅😅

[Valonqar]

It's going to smoke Fast X a movie that needs 850M to break even. So it might as well make 850M to rub it in. 

[M37]

10 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Reddit has been very silly the last few days (and in general) but I can’t honestly defend the 80-105 either when my range at the time was like 110-140 😅   

When I wrote that post, no matter what potential one might have thought was lurking, we had over 3 weeks of data that showed people just weren't buying tickets, and it was going to take a major catalyst just to beat AMWQ ... and we did in fact get an 80/90% percentile outcome from that starting point. Pretty sure your AMWQ range was even higher 10 days out, and I caught a lot of flack for constantly trying to temper expectations there

 

Just like how people are now casually throwing out a sub-50% week 2 drop and $350M DOM total ... what? Y'all are just setting yourself up for disappointment by setting the expectations bar at such low probability, outlier outcomes. From this point, over $300M is solid, ~$310-$320M is good, $320-$330 is very good, and anything above that is exceptional for an MCU/CBM release. A $337M finish should be viewed through that prism, not falling short of some pie in the sky threshold

 

 Or think about it this way: compared to the previous film, a $118M OW is bad, compared to pre-release expectations it's just OK, and compared to how low the potential floor had fallen, it looks fairly good. Which one seems to be the prevailing sentiment on these boards? 😉

[stripe]

 

33 minutes ago, M37 said:

When I wrote that post, no matter what potential one might have thought was lurking, we had over 3 weeks of data that showed people just weren't buying tickets, and it was going to take a major catalyst just to beat AMWQ ... and we did in fact get an 80/90% percentile outcome from that starting point. Pretty sure your AMWQ range was even higher 10 days out, and I caught a lot of flack for constantly trying to temper expectations there

 

Just like how people are now casually throwing out a sub-50% week 2 drop and $350M DOM total ... what? Y'all are just setting yourself up for disappointment by setting the expectations bar at such low probability, outlier outcomes. From this point, over $300M is solid, ~$310-$320M is good, $320-$330 is very good, and anything above that is exceptional for an MCU/CBM release. A $337M finish should be viewed through that prism, not falling short of some pie in the sky threshold

 

 Or think about it this way: compared to the previous film, a $118M OW is bad, compared to pre-release expectations it's just OK, and compared to how low the potential floor had fallen, it looks fairly good. Which one seems to be the prevailing sentiment on these boards? 😉

 

You made a great point. Anyways, as you said, the presales werent like other MCU titles. This points to a different audience bahavior. For whatever reason, there were a lesser rush factor. And that, with the addition of strong WOM, opens the possibility of better than expected legs.

 

Of course, I know there is a strong possibility that Guardians 3 finally behaves like a standard MCU sequel. But, there is also a real chance it doesnt follow the usual MCU frontloaded pattern. We will soon have a better idea, once Wednesday numbers arrive.

[keysersoze123]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

When I wrote that post, no matter what potential one might have thought was lurking, we had over 3 weeks of data that showed people just weren't buying tickets, and it was going to take a major catalyst just to beat AMWQ ... and we did in fact get an 80/90% percentile outcome from that starting point. Pretty sure your AMWQ range was even higher 10 days out, and I caught a lot of flack for constantly trying to temper expectations there

 

Just like how people are now casually throwing out a sub-50% week 2 drop and $350M DOM total ... what? Y'all are just setting yourself up for disappointment by setting the expectations bar at such low probability, outlier outcomes. From this point, over $300M is solid, ~$310-$320M is good, $320-$330 is very good, and anything above that is exceptional for an MCU/CBM release. A $337M finish should be viewed through that prism, not falling short of some pie in the sky threshold

 

 Or think about it this way: compared to the previous film, a $118M OW is bad, compared to pre-release expectations it's just OK, and compared to how low the potential floor had fallen, it looks fairly good. Which one seems to be the prevailing sentiment on these boards? 😉

I was joking but your post went above almost everyone. Trend was showing that but there was obviously a way to do better. Disney definitely threw the kitchen sink after that in setting up Fan shows for week before release. Definitely helped improve the trends. Ultimately movie did better(not spectacularly from your range) in having strong WOM and really great OW trend which none of MCU movies had in ages. it was not reasonable to expect that. 

 

We might be going other way crazy as well. As i said let us wait for 2nd friday to see how the movie is holding. Many times these movies with strong holds have mediocre friday increase impacting 2nd weekend hold. This weekend is critical as after that its not getting an easy weekend for sure. 

[M37]

12 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

 

You made a great point. Anyways, as you said, the presales werent like other MCU titles. This points to a different audience bahavior. For whatever reason, there were a lesser rush factor. And that, with the addition of strong WOM, opens the possibility of better than expected legs.

 

Of course, I know there is a strong possibility that Guardians 3 finally behaves like a standard MCU sequel. But, there is also a real chance it doesnt follow the usual MCU frontloaded pattern. We will soon have a better idea, once Wednesday numbers arrive.

It points to a very similar behavior as Batman, for likely similar reasons: a tarnished CBM EU brand that produced hesitancy over quality and resulted in delayed demand, both in high pace in sales after reviews and good IM, and then a better than usual hold in second weekend 

 

But even Batman-like legs would be a top end MCU result: both that and GOTG2 grossed ~2.14x the first week, and that still only gets you to $330M. The highest is Winter Solider at 2.21x, and the highest post-pandemic is BPWF at 2.06x, with benefit of 2 holiday periods and basically no competition beyond Avatar 

 

If anything, I think GOTG3 - in large part because Disney reacted and released reviews/fan screenings early - caught the “off the fence” wave a bit earlier than Batman, and with stronger competition in weeks 3-6 is probably more likely to finish a bit below it on legs

 

[M37]

50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was joking but your post went above almost everyone.

Yeah, this is what is frustrating, that it was treated at some grand prediction rather than “shit better change or this could be ugly” waiving the red flag warning. It’s not a coincidence IMO that Disney got aggressive, because they were seeing the same thing
 

I’m certainly wrong my fair share (just go browse the club forum!), but just don’t feel like this is one of those times (would feel a bit better if I had kept upper bound at $110 instead of $105 though)

[PlatnumRoyce]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

and really great OW trend which none of MCU movies had in ages...it was not reasonable to expect that. 

 

what's the last film with a similar OW trendline? I suspect there's a conceptual problem with small sample sizes here treating the MCU as its own universe.  Basically, what's the actual 25th/75th percentile ranges which is hard to estimate when intra-franchise quality correlation with previous films seems to be easy to over or understate.