Weekend Thread | May 12 - 14 | Weekend Actuals | 62.01M GOTG III | 12.61M MARIO | 6.68M BOOK CLUB: THE NEXT CHAPTER

[SchumacherFTW]

8 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

 

I like this idea. Next person to mention a video game gets thrown in the dungeon. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, thajdikt said:

What number are we looking for today for Vol 3?

+25M 

 

Ideally, +26 which would absolutely lock +60M weekend 

[thajdikt]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

+25M 

 

Ideally, +26 which would absolutely lock +60M weekend 

Thanks! 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

How's that SMBM movie challenging Avatar 2 or even Top Gun 2 DOM going? Or, heck, even passing Incredibles 2 DOM? You seem super passionate video games which is cool. Passions are great and many video games are awesome but it might be clouding your judgement just a little bit earlier on when the SMBM DOM TOTAL discussions were ongoing and now with GotGV3's second weekend hold.

That A2/TGM discussion was hypothetical IF it had a 3rd and 4th weekend hold it never actually had. You’ll notice I never brought it up as any kind of possibility after the hypothetical never occurred. And no, I’m still not done thinking over I2 is possible, but way more challenging than I expected I will admit. 

[The Dark Alfred]

33 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I don't expect it to pass GotGV1 but I don't think that's completely out the question. It could even potentially pass TLT's DOM TOTAL too. Unlikely though. But, that isn't a done deal yet. Personally, I'm expecting a finish around 325M DOM but it wouldn't shock me at all if it goes lower or higher than 325M by 20M~. If it finishes on the high end of that range, it will have grossed more than both DOM. Even if it doesn't outgross either DOM, it's locked to outgross both WW. Heck, it might even have a shot of outgrossing GotGV2 WW. So, all in all, not too bad.

 

It is bad domestically. No doubt that it's doing great OS, which makes the US total even more disappointing unless it grows amazing legs. GOTG 2 did a lot better than RAGNAROK, yet L&T seem to finish better than GOTG 3 despite a much worse WoM. It goes to show that some people just turned away from MCU as a whole. At least there's SPIDEY and DEADPOOL that are guaranteed to do well.

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

It is bad domestically. No doubt that it's doing great OS, which makes the US total even more disappointing unless it grows amazing legs. GOTG 2 did a lot better than RAGNAROK, yet L&T seem to finish better than GOTG 3 despite a much worse WoM. It goes to show that some people just turned away from MCU as a whole. At least there's SPIDEY and DEADPOOL that are guaranteed to do well.

Deadpool is interesting bc its success doesnt really help MCU. Totally different audience than the primary family one MCU has made its bread and butter. 

[Mojoguy]

Mario

 

2.9

6

4.1

 

$13m weekend

 

30% drop from last weekend would be fantastic! Likely to increase with MD Sunday.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Mario

 

2.9

6

4.1

 

$13m weekend

 

30% drop from last weekend would be fantastic! Likely to increase with MD Sunday.

Strong but I would have liked to see 14 this weekend after the nasty drop last weekend. Still possible I suppose, you never know with Sat for an animated film. Expect a very strong MD weekend for it. Has a direct competitor, but will be low enough in gross that I think holiday will give it a big boost. 

[VanillaSkies]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Mario

 

2.9

6

4.1

 

$13m weekend

 

30% drop from last weekend would be fantastic! Likely to increase with MD Sunday.

historically, how have animated movies fared on Mother’s Day? I can’t recall the last time we had one still bringing in a decent amount of cash on MD weekend.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

historically, how have animated movies fared on Mother’s Day? I can’t recall the last time we had one still bringing in a decent amount of cash on MD weekend.

It will probably be the default option for families with kids under 10. But I don’t think most Moms are going to be too thrilled about that, so it’s lucky there really aren’t other choices for families with younger kids. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

23 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That A2/TGM discussion was hypothetical IF it had a 3rd and 4th weekend hold it never actually had. You’ll notice I never brought it up as any kind of possibility after the hypothetical never occurred. And no, I’m still not done thinking over I2 is possible, but way more challenging than I expected I will admit. 

 

On 4/17/2023 at 11:35 AM, MovieMan89 said:

93

W U T

 

Yeah, 700 is happening people. RIP to all the naysayers who have been trying their damndest to struggle against this phenomenon, I hope your argument’s deaths came without much suffering. 

 

"Hypothetical"

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

"Hypothetical"

Wasn't $200M in Japan easy for him 🤔

[Mojoguy]

4 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

historically, how have animated movies fared on Mother’s Day? I can’t recall the last time we had one still bringing in a decent amount of cash on MD weekend.

The Bad Guys MD weekend last year. It had a better SUN drop from SAT compared to the previous weekend which was in the 30s

May 6, 2022	2	$2,339,700	+328%	-37%	3,839	$609	$50,142,185	15
May 7, 2022	2	$4,173,940	+78%	-45%	3,839	$1,087	$54,316,125	16
May 8, 2022	2	$3,060,345	-27%	-38%	3,839	$797	$57,376,470	17

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

 

 

"Hypothetical"

It’s called blatant hyperbole over an exciting number, but you do you. You can see when I got into an actual serious discussion about it, I laid out the parameters on what a 3rd and 4th weekend needed to look like and said it was very hypothetical  

[MovieMan89]

Interestingly, Zootopia had one of its worst late run holds on mothers days weekend… 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Wasn't $200M in Japan easy for him 🤔

$20b Y in Japan hardly seems crazy when it is over half way there in less than 2 weeks… 

[druv10]

2nd weekend holds for MCU

1. BP1 -44.7%
2. Thor1 -47.2%
3. DS1 -49.5%
4. IM1 -49.9%
5. TA1 -50.3%
6. GOTG3 -51% (Projected by Disney)

62.6M should be enough for 2nd best hold and if we're dreaming of best hold than 65.6M is needed.

Edited May 13, 2023 by druv10

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

$20b Y in Japan hardly seems crazy when it is over half way there in less than 2 weeks… 

Let me put it like this.

 

Mario lost ground against almost everything this week and has no holidays for 2 months compared to most of these which have yet to enter that period. I gave mario a hypothetical soft 20% drop next week (and this week's total may even be lower than what I gave it anyway).

 

The weekdays are not good enough for 20b unless it has really really crazy holds. Besides your 200M is 27b.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Let me put it like this.

 

Mario lost ground against almost everything this week and has no holidays for 2 months compared to most of these which have yet to enter that period. I gave mario a hypothetical soft 20% drop next week (and this week's total may even be lower than what I gave it anyway).

 

The weekdays are not good enough for 20b unless it has really really crazy holds. Besides your 200M is 27b.

If the exchange rate has gotten so dismal now that 27b is 200, that’s not on me. In that case, Demon Slayer wouldn’t have even hit 300 in USD now. It would still be one of like 6 movies to hit that 20b mark, a very elite club. I think trying to say that the very leggy Japanese box office market can’t get a movie to 2x its two week total seems pretty bold, but we’ll see. 

[Cooper Legion]

41 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

yet L&T seem to finish better than GOTG 3

You seem to have missed my post last Saturday. I was very clear