THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[Last Man Standing]

2 hours ago, Torontofan said:

I think with many films a massive backlash by fans and such online can create a lot of negativity about a film and just give the film a negative vibe in the general audience.

 

 

I actually think the dialogue around TLM is miles more positive than the dialogue around most Disney remakes. When people were talking about Pinocchio last year or Dumbo before that it was invariably to shit on them.

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, jedijake said:

And define "hit". (DS MOM, AvWOW, GOGT3, Shang Chi, even the panned ThLaT were all hits).

MCU aren't big. They do ⅓ of Fast Franchise & ⅐ of Jurassic World

 

Avatar 2 did $32.5M (vs Avatar $174.2M)

 

These films can't be termed as hit.

[Deathlife]

14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

@charlie Jatinder expecting at $30s range

 

June 9th

 

Since, distributor is Disney, so you should not have hope at all. Ever since, cinema re-opened, Disney hasn't been able to deliver a single hit.

 

Avatar 2, Dr Strange, BP:WF weren't Disney films?

GoTG 3? 

 

Or do you mean something else?

 

EDIT: You mean in some parts of Asia. Got it.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Deathlife

[Issac Newton]

Just now, Deathlife said:

 

Avatar 2, Dr Strange, BP:WF weren't Disney films?

GoTG 3? 

 

Or do you mean something else?

 

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

MCU aren't big. They do ⅓ of Fast Franchise & ⅐ of Jurassic World

 

Avatar 2 did $32.5M (vs Avatar $174.2M)

 

These films can't be termed as hit.

 

[Valonqar]

I just want to say that setting expectations high is a recipe for disappointment. TLM OW is good but it's disappointing compared to what kind of projections were made. It was to take Memorial weekend crown. Then, that was adjusted down to 2d of all times and then to 4th of all times. I think that the final report said 5th of all times. It was supposed to comfortably cross 100M in 3 days (110M+) then not so comfortably (105M) and finally it didn't cross 100M. You cannot deny the downward trend which, to be fair, started with previews. Right off the bat it didn't meet expectations. 

 

OTOH, GOTG Vol 3 projections started low and went up up up. Sunday hold sealed the legs deal. I don't know what it all means for TLM - maybe it goes way up with actuals - but one cannot deny very different trajectory for these 2 movies.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Valonqar

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Liiviig 1998]

34 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Then there's really something weird going on that would make an interesting investigation/study. I have theories, but don't want to make this a COVID/race relation thread. Been there done that.

 

As for domestic, TLM should pull in $40-$45 million in its second weekend. WOM is great (despite what the conspiracy theorists here are saying). Thereafter, it should drop on average of 35% per weekend (emphasize average-some more some less). The mid-weeks should be at or close to the weekends since it's summer. So we're still probably looking at around $320-$330 million domestic which would be about 90+% of Aladdin. Pretty damn good considering all the backlash.

Don't think it's getting as high as 45m . It's already below Aladdin dialies and that had 42m second weekend. Adding to that it's facing ATSV this weekend and that's looks like a 100m with the potential to explode.

[grim22]

56 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Any debate about TLM's domestic success is really just splitting hairs. Sure, most people wanted a $100 m 3-day and it fell short, But while it may not make over Aladdin's domestic, it isn't going to be all that drastically different. It will probably end up around $330 million which is pretty damn good.

 

I am not sure I would say 330M or even 300M is happening till we see next weekend. If it's losses against Aladdin daily start hitting 1-2M on the weekdays, it might not get to 300 at all.

[scytheavatar]

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I just want to say that setting expectations high is a recipe for disappointment. TLM OW is good but it's disappointing compared to what kind of projections were made. It was to take Memorial weekend crown. Then, that was adjusted down to 2d of all times and then to 4th of all times. I think that the final report said 5th of all times. It was supposed to comfortably cross 100M in 3 days (110M+) then not so comfortably (105M) and finally it didn't cross 100M. You cannot deny the downward trend which, to be fair, started with previews. Right off the bat it didn't meet expectations. 

 

OTOH, GOTG Vol 3 projections started low and went up up up. Sunday hold sealed the legs deal. I don't know what it all means for TLM - maybe it goes way up with actuals - but one cannot deny very different trajectory for these 2 movies.

 

The problem is that the expectations were not high enough. People think beating Aladdin is already enough to declare TLM a success and that is ignoring how 1) Overseas numbers have been looking poor for TLM for a while, while it was the overseas numbers that saved Aladdin 2) TLM has a much larger budget than Aladdin, 250M vs 180M.  From the beginning TLM had to do gangbuster numbers domestic to have any chance of being successful, like at least BATB and TLK numbers, and it was a stretch for the movie to do that considering the original TLM was never as big a hit as Aladdin let alone the real renaissance giants.

 

From the beginning you have to be really bad in maths to think TLM making 600-700M WW is enough to declare it a hit.

Edited May 29, 2023 by scytheavatar

[Boxx93]

Why does everybody keep forgetting that the original Little Mermaid came out at a time where animated movies where just not popular at all and looked down upon. It revived interest in animation on its own. That is impressive enough.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Boxx93

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

MONDAY AM: Disney is holding firm to its $117.5M 4-day opening estimate on Little Mermaid after a $27.4M Sunday and a projected $22.1M Monday. Rivals still see it higher, around $119M, but Disney isn’t a studio that likes to get over their skis in their estimates. At the end of the day, Little Mermaid‘s box office course wasn’t that far off from Aladdin‘s; Ariel being more front-loaded in her previews/Friday with $38M to Aladdin’s $31.5M. Again, Aladdin posted a $30M Sunday and $25.3M Monday. Little Mermaid‘s 3-day is $95.4M to the Blue Genie’s $91.3M.

 

This is a very solid start for Little Mermaid despite coming in slightly lower than the anticipated $120M 4-day, a solid Memorial Day weekend to keep exhibition happy and popcorn sales flowing. The 2023 box office per Comscore through Sunday is at $3.36 billion, 28% ahead of 2022.

[CJohn]

That Monday is 3M below Aladdin... I am just not sure anymore about 300M. I am still aboard that train but disaster seems imminent. 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Claudio]

Disney’s box office future looking bleak. Almost all their IPs are damaged now.

 

- Marvel brand has weakened. Not strong as it used to. Too inconsistent and need to have string of good films to earn the audiences back.

- Lucasfilm: Star Wars is on halt and maybe won’t come again to cinema for the next 4-5 years and no more Indi, the final adventure will release this year and also not looking good.

- WDAS is on life support with hattrick of flops (Encanto, Raya and strange world). Frozen 3 and Moana 2 can’t come soon enough.

- 20th Century never release blockbuster movie under Disney. Many are flops and middle hit at best.

- They are running out of Live Action remakes story.  Next are Snow White with many controversies surrounding it.

- Pixar is dead.

 

The only thing still shines bright is Avatar. But it only come once in two years. 
Disney probably needs to rely more on original films like the upcoming Haunted Mansions.

 

It’s amazing how much has changed since 2019 when Disney seemed to monopolize the film industry with their tremendous success. One pandemic and here we are.

 

[grim22]

I'm so disappointed at the lack of good puns in the box office headlines. Every single one seems to be "swims past 100M" or similar.

 

This is the best one I have seen, creativity is pretty low otherwise

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Claudio said:

 

 

The only thing still shines bright is Avatar. But it only come once in two years. 
Disney probably needs to rely more on original films like the upcoming Haunted Mansions.

 

It’s amazing how much has changed since 2019 when Disney seemed to monopolize the film industry with their tremendous success. One pandemic and here we are.

 

 

That's actually a remake - it's not original, either.

Edited May 29, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

That's the thing with Across v. Into... I feel like a lot of families that didn't see Into in theaters but caught it later streaming are definitely gonna catch Across in theaters. Those demo breakdowns are making it even more like a movie that'll break out huge. Lots of room for growth.

It’s also pretty typical for later December releases to see family attendance jump after Christmas, especially if they hit that good for most ages range like Jumanji, Aquaman, Avatar