Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, Flip said:

Just for reference if Spiderverse plays like Wonder Woman which released on the same day (almost surely won't) and the 35m sticks, F-S jump would be 29% and saturday would be 45.3m. Then for sunday it would drop 16% and would gross 38.2m, giving us an opening weekend of 135.5m. It most likely won't play like this but 🤷‍♂️.

tbf all indications seem to suggest that it's suffering from being underbooked on screenings, so a large sat jump may not be out of the question 

[WorkingonaName]

Barbie winning the summer gets clearer by the day. 

[ThomasNicole]

I get the meh feeling, it’s the bad part of being so into box office and having access to such talented trackers (way better than even industry sources) 

 

For example, when the previews number was released lots of fans in my chat group was so happy and celebrating and even a bit shocked at how good it did, while i was “yeah nice but could’ve been better” 

 

 

[Flip]

A side effect of the low screenings count could be that it drops better next weekend since it won't be losing as much plfs or screenings as a bigger blockbuster would

[Fanboy]

Are we expecting another A+ CinemaScore for Spider-Verse or could the cliffhanger ending put some people off? At 2 hours and 20 minutes it's also a lot to digest, that said I personally liked it more than first film. 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Flip said:

A side effect of the low screenings count could be that it drops better next weekend since it won't be losing as much plfs or screenings as a bigger blockbuster would

Isn't Transformers taking over all (or at least 90% of) PLF/IMAX screens next weekend though?

[keysersoze123]

33 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

A sequel to a movie opening to less than 40M doing 115M+ on opening weekend is indeed a breakout no matter which way you try and spin it. Presales have kind of ruined box office. Had Mario been a Friday opener instead of Wednesday its weekend might have been more predictable too. 3-4 is also a big margin of a multiplier for a movie this size. You're talking about about a potential 120M+ difference in total gross. Edit: Initially had this at 200M+ before I realised I 3-4 would literally just be the difference of the opening weekend. Still a lot though. 

It is a breakout. But it also tapered off big time after kind of growth we saw on Tue/Wed plus universal acclaim made us think its going to open > 150m. That said if you had told me before presales that this one is opening to whatever it will, I would have been WOWed. 

[keysersoze123]

He who must not be named is saying 53m+ now. But he tends go overboard :-)

[WorkingonaName]

The international numbers are pretty meh.

[Fanboy]

9 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Barbie winning the summer gets clearer by the day. 

Barbie is the biggest wild card of the summer by far. On one hand it has massive internet hype and a large presence in meme culture (which should not be underestimated on box office impact), on the other hand though it is a satirical film that no one explicitly knows who the target audience is. The new trailer even references this itself with "if you love Barbie this is for you, if you hate Barbie this is for you". So is it pro-Barbie or anti-Barbie or an uneven mix of both? Not sure we're going to have an idea of how it will do until reviews come out. 

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

The international numbers are pretty meh.

Spider-Verse 1's international numbers weren't that great either (194, almost equal to its domestic) so it's not that surprising.

[Dragoncaine]

22 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

Are we expecting another A+ CinemaScore for Spider-Verse or could the cliffhanger ending put some people off? At 2 hours and 20 minutes it's also a lot to digest, that said I personally liked it more than first film. 

Yeah, count me in the "overwhelmed" camp. It's a great movie, no doubt about it, but I missed the elegant simplicity and emotional payoff of ITSV. The story and character beats here are terrific, but the actual mechanics of getting to those beats felt muddy to me, with most of the action and connective tissue blurring together on first viewing. I'm at an 8-8.5/10, but I can't wait to see it again to hopefully process the film more effectively. Animation and score were phenomenal beyond words.

 

The final 20 minutes go really hard, too, despite the cliffhanger. Wonderful mini-arcs for several of our leads while keeping the blood pumping leading into BTSV.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[JohnnyGossamer]

Potentially 53M+ Thursday/Friday for AtSV is incredible. I think it will get to 130M+ OW DOM with that. It'll have a solid internal multiple for this type of movie on a OW DOM. 

 

Hopefully TLM, GotGV3 and SMBM continue to hold pretty well. I've already written off FX but guess I wish it luck too.

 

What's FX gonna finish with DOM? Under 150M?

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

He who must not be named is saying 53m+ now. But he tends go overboard 🙂

Not as much as that Louis guy

[JohnnyGossamer]

Numbers I saw went from 48.5 to 50 to 52 to 53 potentially. Makes me think a Saturday and Sunday that were already going to be good will be even better due to spillover.

[upriser7]

ATSV was great. Lot of claps and cheers in my show once after the movie ended

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, screambaby said:

Not as much as that Louis guy

Yeah. He did say 52M for AtSV 11 hours ago. He might've kinda nailed this one pretty early.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

The international numbers are pretty meh.

Really? They are much better than the first one as far as I'm aware, expecting Mario is a bit silly.

[grim22]

 

[Sckathian]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

The international numbers are pretty meh.

It’s growing on what it did before. Sony have appropriately budgeted this film. Feel like some of you have really wild expectations that even it’s wild performance simply can’t stand up to.