Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[robertman2]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Funny coincidence I noticed. The last Transformers movie (Bumblebee) opened 1 week after the last Spiderverse movie. And now another Transformers movie is opening 1 week after the next Spiderverse movie. If you want to get really technical... what other movies were released in those weeks? A DC property and a big Disney live-action directed by Rob Marshall. 

 

The release schedule simply repeats itself, it just disguises itself in a slightly different skin. 

And both times the big Disney movie did kinda ehhh

[M37]

25 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

With this 55% drop and Flash and Elemental coming next weekend... What's the expectation for AtSV next weekend DOM? 25M to 28M?

ATSV dropped 44% Sat/Sat while losing PLFs, would think a -40% bar for next weekend, like $33-34M, is where to start, see how weekdays trend 

[Johnny Tran]

41 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I would say only occasionally.

 

January, February, March and May monthly gross are the lowest in decades. For example, May used to be billion dollar month but May this year only made $770m+, in fact May of 2022 was a bit higher than this year.

 

We are facing the big vacuum of mid-sized hit, those movies that made between $50m-$100m. The lack of mid-sized and surprise sleeper hit normally provide some stability in BO in case big tentpoles flopped but there aren't enough of them now. That is why the overall health of the market is even more in the hand of few tentpoles. 

 

Why aren't there more Jordan Peele like projects?   I'd say Nolan is the bigger version of this.  Good director, original ideas,  has a following,  and the budgets are kept in control,  usually end up with a nice profit. 

 

Shouldn't studios be trying more of that? 

[ZattMurdock]

 

 

[Ledmonkey96]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

ATSV dropped 44% Sat/Sat while losing PLFs, would think a -40% bar for next weekend, like $33-34M, is where to start, see how weekdays trend 

Elemental won't be that big but it's still direct competition for families with kids to Spiderverse, and then there's another super hero movie to take the older fans

[vafrow]

25 minutes ago, M37 said:

Like last year, the summer calendar is when it comes closest to pre-pandemic, as the releases are bigger and help cover up the underlying weakness. June may become only the third post-pandemic $1B domestic month (Dec 2021, July 2022). But there just isn't the overall volume beyond that

 

For example, the 4th highest grossing May release was ... Book Club 2 at $17M. For April it was Margaret at $20M, March was packed, but Feb was Brady at $39M and Jan had Pathaan in 4th at $17.5M

 

Last summer, hits were bigger, but, you had such big gaps in the calendar. The weekend after Memorial Day weekend had no wide releases.

 

This year has the volume, but lacks the big hits. It's hard to assess what returning to normal is though, as the latter 2010s  geared more towards the mega franchise than is what is ideal.

 

Next summer doesn't seem to have any slam dunk mega hits. Honestly, if Beyond the Spiderverse shifted to the summer, it would probably be the favorite to win.

 

I'm really not sure what's more likely to return. More mega hits that have $200M+ opening weekends, or a higher frequency of mid range hits. The latter scenario requires more genres to be viable. 

[Cmasterclay]

Yeah I'm generally a pessimist, but man, I just don't see how people can think of the box office in rosy terms at all. I'm not talking Transformers or Little Mermaid. I think the depth of "blockbuster" types this summer is actually pretty good. It's the fact that movies like Air and No Hard Feelings and Joy Ride, which once would have done 100m likely, can barely crack 50 if they get a miracle anymore. That's a killer to the long-term health of the box office - and to our culture, given these kind of films, the Good Will Huntings and Sixth Senses of the world, are what become iconic in a way blockbuster or indie films often don't.

 

That said, a rare note of optimisim - if Transformers could accelerate this week like it did, I certainly think Indy isn't dead yet. The audience for that movie is like 60 year old white women, needless to say they aren't scarfing up advanced tickets at MCU fanboy like levels. Crystal Skull was MUCH leggier than people expected at the time.

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Yeah I'm generally a pessimist, but man, I just don't see how people can think of the box office in rosy terms at all. I'm not talking Transformers or Little Mermaid. I think the depth of "blockbuster" types this summer is actually pretty good. It's the fact that movies like Air and No Hard Feelings and Joy Ride, which once would have done 100m likely, can barely crack 50 if they get a miracle anymore. That's a killer to the long-term health of the box office - and to our culture, given these kind of films, the Good Will Huntings and Sixth Senses of the world, are what become iconic in a way blockbuster or indie films often don't.

 

That said, a rare note of optimisim - if Transformers could accelerate this week like it did, I certainly think Indy isn't dead yet. The audience for that movie is like 60 year old white women, needless to say they aren't scarfing up advanced tickets at MCU fanboy like levels. Crystal Skull was MUCH leggier than people expected at the time.

 

 

60 year old white women? Okay.  Right age and race maybe but wrong gender i think, 

[THUNDER BIRD]

55 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

🐐 movie

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

60 year old white women? Okay.  Right age and race maybe but wrong gender i think, 

My middle name is Harrison because my mom found him so hot. Don't underestimate the man.

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Why aren't there more Jordan Peele like projects?   I'd say Nolan is the bigger version of this.  Good director, original ideas,  has a following,  and the budgets are kept in control,  usually end up with a nice profit. 

 

Shouldn't studios be trying more of that? 

To be fair, they did try but the result has not been good, just look at how the Northman, The last Duel and Moonfall flopped, although you can argue the reception to these movies is also to blame. 

 

This kind of auteur's hit has becoming rare and rarer even before Covid. I would say Nolan,  Spielberg, Peele and James Cameron are the last surviving auteur that can still command sizeable budget and BO for their movies.  

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

My middle name is Harrison because my mom found him so hot. Don't underestimate the man.

That's cool!  Not saying there aren't a lot of women who don't love him but I still think the Indiana Jones movies skew male pretty overall. 

[M37]

12 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Elemental won't be that big but it's still direct competition for families with kids to Spiderverse, and then there's another super hero movie to take the older fans

ATSV isn’t really drawing families with younger kids, and while the combined competition effect of Flash & Elemental is stronger than just TF, don’t think it’s on the level where you start with -50% for week 3

 

GOTG3 dropped 47% vs Fast X while losing PLFs

[MightyDargon]

Gunn needs to spend less time interacting with idiots on Twitter and more on making movies.

[Eric is Quiet]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

 

 

@Brainbug your time has come

[MightyDargon]

We'll never see the pre-pandemic normal again. Windows are too brief for that now.

[Eric is Quiet]

39 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Why aren't there more Jordan Peele like projects?   I'd say Nolan is the bigger version of this.  Good director, original ideas,  has a following,  and the budgets are kept in control,  usually end up with a nice profit. 

 

Shouldn't studios be trying more of that? 

Because audiences and studio execs are too piss scared to see anything that isn’t based off a thing they are familiar with. Sad but true.

[Ledmonkey96]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

ATSV isn’t really drawing families with younger kids, and while the combined competition effect of Flash & Elemental is stronger than just TF, don’t think it’s on the level where you start with -50% for week 3

 

GOTG3 dropped 47% vs Fast X while losing PLFs

ya but it had the same drop against TLM even with the holiday, lost a bunch of showings but no theaters.

[rehpyc]

Cinemas are becoming more event based entertainment than casual weekends out, and the rising ticket prices are a bit to blame for that (yes, all things have increased in prices with inflation, but ticket prices have far exceeded their cost growth). You'll have some large hits and your fans hitting up opening weekends, but the larger depth of GA are being far more selective, many comfortable waiting for the film to hit the streamers. I think this year and especially summer thus far are epitomizing that.

Edited June 11, 2023 by rehpyc

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

ATSV isn’t really drawing families with younger kids, and while the combined competition effect of Flash & Elemental is stronger than just TF, don’t think it’s on the level where you start with -50% for week 3

 

GOTG3 dropped 47% vs Fast X while losing PLFs

Fathers Day Sunday might also help counter some of the effect of the competition.