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Issac Newton

Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

By Issac Newton, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Gopher,

Maybe this is just me following this stuff for 15 years (christ) but I've never seen the climate both on these boards and in general trade reporting so concerned with using whatever statistics we have access to in proving what's doing "well" or not-- while at the same time, these statistics have never been less transparent to independent observers. The budgets reported for these tentpoles are always lies, all of these movies were mega-inflated by covid shutdowns over the past few years. At the s

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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Fwiw, I’d bet on Deadline (or source) underestimating the walk-up rate and being too low on TF. Usually a high Thur WUR repeats on Friday 

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Eric Burnett Global Phenomenon

Eric Burnett

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I know that it's not much in the grand scheme of things, but Transformers set to, at worst, nearly miss 60M+ is probably the craziest story of the summer so far. Every other movie's opening weekend makes sense when you hear it, even Guardians 3's total sounds legit enough. And judging by the poor RT Aud. score, it's probably not gonna go all that far. But Transformers was a property that had been on the decline for years, had no real big hook in the marketing, has mediocre reviews, no big stars. There was zero reason for this not to open to 30M and continue the diminishing returns. Now it's gonna double that? I guess 2000s nostalgia really did save the day here. Only explanation I can think of if I'm being honest.

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stuart360 Blockbuster

stuart360

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2 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

I know that it's not much in the grand scheme of things, but Transformers set to, at worst, nearly miss 60M+ is probably the craziest story of the summer so far. Every other movie's opening weekend makes sense when you hear it, even Guardians 3's total sounds legit enough. And judging by the poor RT Aud. score, it's probably not gonna go all that far. But Transformers was a property that had been on the decline for years, had no real big hook in the marketing, has mediocre reviews, no big stars. There was zero reason for this not to open to 30M and continue the diminishing returns. Now it's gonna double that? I guess 2000s nostalgia really did save the day here. Only explanation I can think of if I'm being honest.

I hadnt foll,owed the film, tracking, or anything like that, but even with a decline in popularity, its had its time in the sun, people have moved on, etc, etc, i could never see this kind of massive budget spectacle open to 30mil lol.

The series has had multiple 100+mil openings, 200mil 5 day openings etc.

Has there ever been a semi long running series that has opened to massive numbers in its hey dey, then the latest one opens to a terrible 30mil, or equivelant?.

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

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4 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

I know that it's not much in the grand scheme of things, but Transformers set to, at worst, nearly miss 60M+ is probably the craziest story of the summer so far. Every other movie's opening weekend makes sense when you hear it, even Guardians 3's total sounds legit enough. And judging by the poor RT Aud. score, it's probably not gonna go all that far. But Transformers was a property that had been on the decline for years, had no real big hook in the marketing, has mediocre reviews, no big stars. There was zero reason for this not to open to 30M and continue the diminishing returns. Now it's gonna double that? I guess 2000s nostalgia really did save the day here. Only explanation I can think of if I'm being honest.

Mix of 90s nostalgia (Beast Wars), 2000s nostalgia (Bayformers) and just it seems like it being the easiest 'casual' action film for audiences I think. Requires no real background on anything, it's just another Transformers movie to turn your brain off to. I feel like that appeals to a decent segment of audiences, in addition to the aforementioned nostalgia angles.

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

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1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

I hadnt foll,owed the film, tracking, or anything like that, but even with a decline in popularity, its had its time in the sun, people have moved on, etc, etc, i could never see this kind of massive budget spectacle open to 30mil lol.

The series has had multiple 100+mil openings, 200mil 5 day openings etc.

Has there ever been a semi long running series that has opened to massive numbers in its hey dey, then the latest one opens to a terrible 30mil, or equivelant?.

Bumblebee opened to only 21 million back in December of 2018.

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stuart360 Blockbuster

stuart360

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4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Bumblebee opened to only 21 million back in December of 2018.

A spin off aimed more at the kids though. I meant mainline movies, if you get me.

 

I mean i doubt anyone was expecting Bumblebee to open to anywhere close to any of the mainline films.

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Eric Burnett Global Phenomenon

Eric Burnett

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4 hours ago, Mulder said:

Just so you know, toy sales have been down across the board since the 2010s and have only gotten worse, I get why you say it but that's more something of the 80s-2000s era of film making. Hasbro and Mattel are on the verge of bankruptcy and there's a reason Toys R Us died. I honestly also just don't get calling every single genre film a 'nostalgic toy commercial'. You really think Terminator Dark Fate was made for toys? It's just that the same reason you used to get 500 Arnie or Stallone films pumped out, they were viewed as a film with a guaranteed hook/draw. I agree that it'd be nice to get more original stuff back (The film I'm most looking forward to this year is The Creator) but, ya know. 

Just because toys aren't as popular as they used to doesn't mean they still aren't an important part of a film's success and reason for existing. And even Terminator, despite being R, is still designed to sell Funko Pops and collectible figurines aimed towards adults and Halloween costumes. So like...it's still a toy commercial aimed at a nostalgic audience who remember seeing it when they were younger. Fits the bill.

 

4 hours ago, Dephira said:

Had no idea Anthony Ramos is the lead in Transformers. Now I'll probably have to see it. He was magnetic in In The Heights  

Him and Dominique Fishback are the only reasons I'm planning to see the new Transformers. I'm far from a fan of this series, but both of them are easily two of the most charismatic rising stars working today, and they both deserve the support.

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

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1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

A spin of aimed more at the kids though. I meant mainline movies, if you get me.

 

I mean i doubt anyone was expecting Bumblebee to open to anywhere close to any of the mainline films.

I get that, but Bumblebee's opening was still insanely low so it's not hard to see why some were seeing disaster in store for RoTB.

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