TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

I mean Dead Reckoning will at least double it’s budget, I doubt Indy goes over 400m WW

To double its budget it needs to top $600m. And we all know how that’s preferable DOM than OS for obvious reasons. I have a feeling that either of them won’t be able to. Sure MI7 will do more. But I’m not seeing this clear path to $600m when it’s underperforming not just domestically, but pretty much everywhere but UK and Australia.

[Starphanluke]

47 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

It's going to cut it close, I think it can just barely make it though. It will be a bigger question if it can Bumblebee's WW haul though ($462M WW), that might be a wash unfournately.

Almost definitely not, unless it weirdly blows up in Japan (which I do not expect at all).

 

Domestic is definitely a better narrative for the movie than international.

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

When I first heard about Barbie I thought it was the dumbest idea for a movie I heard in a long time. You can chalk me up as one of the people who initially thought this is going to tank and tank very badly. Now every time I read something on Twitter about it, the opening weekend keeps getting higher and higher based on presales and people's predictions. It's very baffling to me but I'm looking forward to the ride for sure. 

I think your reaction to hearing about a Barbie movie was a lot of people’s initial one honestly. Again, why I don’t buy that this was always a “sure thing.” So many brilliant factors with the creative team involved and the marketing that turned this into what it’s going to be. 

[Ledmonkey96]

Given the relative jumps for Thursday SoF should manage 60% of MI7s weekend shouldn't it?

[John Marston]

6 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I’ll admit I was not expecting this much for Barbie in terms of opening weekend. This is a nice surprise though after such an awful summer, GG to WB for how they did with it.

 

Off topic but I’m rewatching Days Of Future Past and god this movie is way more boring than I remember it being. How tf did Bryan Singer trick Hollywood into thinking he was an interesting director worth giving such huge projects?

 

huh? DOF is one of the best superhero movies ever and way better than most actual MCU movies. Maybe you’re mixing it up with Apocalypse 

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The other big factor with my Barbie predictions was centered around Gosling. The man simply doesn’t do these kind of films, he has seemed downright IP tentpole averse in fact. The fact that he was on board told me the script must be very intriguing. And of course, Gerwig involvement was also the same in that sense as Gosling really. Signs were there. 

…he did Blade Runner 2049. Hindsight and all it’s easy to say this, but people over predicted and got extremely disappointed with that one too. It’s not like Gosling expected that to bomb either.

 

And let’s be real here, Ryan is amazing, but if the actual reason this film works at all is thanks to Margot Robbie playing Barbie directed by Greta Gerwig. It’s the right team for this to work.
 

No one would believe and rightfully so if this was Amy Schumer directed by Paul Feig, it doesn’t matter if it had Gosling or Hemsworth. It’s like saying that Spider-Man would work if they had gone with Asa Butterfield over Tom Holland, which almost actually happened.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

30 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Yet another way people effectively pay $3-5/ticket but get represented by a higher gross (in this case, it's likely AMC taking most or all of the hit by billing their less using subscribers and keeping a higher non-subscriber ticket price)...

A-List basically eliminates (for members) the part of the ticket cost that AMC keeps for themselves. AMC just pays the studio their portion for each admission. They hope to make it up between concessions (always the big moneymaker for theaters) and members who skip a month or two.

 

If the same number of A-List members paid for tickets the regular way, the box office in theory would be higher because regular ticket prices cover what the theater keeps AND the part that the studio gets back. In practice, the admissions would decrease because the cost wouldn't be discounted. It's a trade off.

 

 

Sound of Freedom is a wild enough run on its own but even Deadline is saying it pulled attendance from Dead Reckoning in certain regions. And to think Cruise spent all that time calling up theaters and IMAX to demand they break their exclusive windows, then having to play nice about Barbenheimer in public! If only he'd known the real enemy, LOL...

 

 

[Kon]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sure, but it wasn’t just here. No one in the industry really seemed to be supporting the prediction of Barbie being massive either until maybe a month or two ago. It was people irl I know and the kind that don’t typically care about moviegoing that I saw the hype with. Hardly anyone as far as industry analysts or pundits seemed on board. 

This is true. Barbie as a brand was stable, but it wasn't at this level.

 

I mean, Barbie has MANY direct to DVD animated movies, but the popularity have never reached this level.

 

It just seems the concept of the Barbie movie really click with a lot of people.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Kon

[John Marston]

Of course Sound of Freedom will hurt Dead Reckoning. Both appeal heavily to older white people and many decided to see the former instead of the latter. Probably because you have lots of people saying NOT to see it, so it has become forbidden fruit 

Edited July 15, 2023 by John Marston

[Hatebox]

This does feel like it’s verging on existential for Hollywood now. Just too many really expensive films not doing well enough, and there’s no putting the streaming genie back in the bottle. I used to ask friends ‘seen anything good at the cinema recently?’ but that question has long since been replaced with ‘what show are you watching?’ And I don’t think it’s just because we’re getting older or busier. 
 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Hatebox

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Starphanluke said:

Hopefully this is an okay discussion for this thread, but I'm glad to see another rock-solid hold for Transformers. It's another dent in the argument that people try to say putting a movie on PVOD "too early" kills its box office. Movie launched digitally (for purchase) on Tuesday. 

 

Obviously it's about balance. You don't want to do it after like 3 days. But I have a feeling it will play out nicely for Paramount here. 

 

New question is if TF can make a run to $160m. I feel dumb for saying it might not make it to $100m.

I went to see Transformers tonight and it was fun! Loved the female autobot too.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

…he did Blade Runner 2049. Hindsight and all it’s easy to say this, but people over predicted and got extremely disappointed with that one too. It’s not like Gosling expected that to bomb either.

 

And let’s be real here, Ryan is amazing, but if the actual reason this film works at all is thanks to Margot Robbie playing Barbie directed by Greta Gerwig. It’s the right team for this to work.
 

No one would believe and rightfully so if this was Amy Schumer directed by Paul Feig, it doesn’t matter if it had Gosling or Hemsworth. It’s like saying that Spider-Man would work if they had gone with Asa Butterfield over Tom Holland, which almost actually happened.

BR2049 is your example of mainstream blockbuster? Hahahahaha. Cmon, don’t pretend like Gosling never does roles like this one. 
 

And yes, Gerwig of course deserves  the most credit if this movie is great, I didn’t say otherwise. But I had less faith in her than Gosling bc it would have been believable she was lured in by a big paycheck, having likely never seen a lot of money being only a smaller Oscar darling in her career. Opposed to Gosling, who despite never doing your typical mainstream fare, has very firmly established himself for a long time as an A Lister and a draw, who no doubt takes in plenty of dough. There was zero reason for him to be lured in by a paycheck with Barbie, it was clear he must love the movie presented to him. That gave me big time faith in it being a breakout. 

[narniadis]

@MovieMan89 broken clocks are right twice a day - Just kidding. Kudos to you for both Barbie and SMB. I would also have been on the negative side for Barbie (don't think I ever made a post since I had no cares about it), but am excited to see what she does next weekend and in total. We need the positives to make up for the disappointments. 

[narniadis]

also, @Cap and other mods, is there a setting for ignored users that I have missed when it comes to their quotes? Been long enough that I have forgotten but my "purging" this week only works so far 😄

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, Kon said:

This is true. Barbie as a brand was stable, but it wasn't at this level.

 

I mean, Barbie has MANY direct to DVD animated movies, but the popularity have never reached this level.

 

It just seems the concept of the Barbie movie really click with a lot of people.

Batman, Avengers, Spider-Man and all the other brands directed to kids had direct to dvd animations in the past. It takes the right team to make them blow up. I don’t think Tom Cruise could carry Tony Stark and become what the MCU became thanks to the kickstart with RDJ directed by Favreau. Just like it doesn’t matter how strong of a brand Barbie is, Amy Schumer directed by Paul Feig wouldn’t work for Barbie just like it didn’t for Ghostbuster either.

[wildphantom]

Forget the budget for a second. 

 

Mission (China withstanding) isn’t a million miles away from what Fallout was doing. 
 

The disappointment is largely down to expectation after Maverick last summer. Take that out of the equation and it’s doing fine.  Not amazing, but perfectly in line with what this series normally does. 
 

I’m getting tired of the budget being brought into question. It had to cost that much to finish as it had been in production for literally years.  They didn’t overspend. They started before a worldwide pandemic so do the maths. 
 

so yeah, I did expect a Maverick bump and that hasn’t happened. Oh well. I guess it makes sense and I wasn’t being realistic. China helped a whole bunch to that huge Fallout total, and they’re a shit show for pretty much every Hollywood release compared to a few years ago. 
 

I do think a bunch of us are wildly overreacting and whilst I wish it was doing a little better, it’s far from a disaster when compared to films within its own franchise. 
 

Dead Reckoning is performing like a Mission: Impossible movie. 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

@MovieMan89 broken clocks are right twice a day - Just kidding. Kudos to you for both Barbie and SMB. I would also have been on the negative side for Barbie (don't think I ever made a post since I had no cares about it), but am excited to see what she does next weekend and in total. We need the positives to make up for the disappointments. 

I also got A2 crazy legs after the meh OW and Ant Man and Shazam bombage well in advance fwiw (and Indy if you count me saying it will bomb IF it’s not well received)  No need to talk about Guardians, Transformers, and Mario 700+ post opening predictions hehe 

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

BR2049 is your example of mainstream blockbuster? Hahahahaha. Cmon, don’t pretend like Gosling never does roles like this one. 
 

And yes, Gerwig of course deserves  the most credit if this movie is great, I didn’t say otherwise. But I had less faith in her than Gosling bc it would have been believable she was lured in by a big paycheck, having likely never seen a lot of money being only a smaller Oscar darling in her career. Opposed to Gosling, who despite never doing your typical mainstream fare, has very firmly established himself for a long time as an A Lister and a draw, who no doubt takes in plenty of dough. There was zero reason for him to be lured in by a paycheck with Barbie, it was clear he must love the movie presented to him. That gave me big time faith in it being a breakout. 

Nah, you are missing a big part of the equation here. Barbie wouldn’t work without Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig. And I say this with confidence even before watching the film. It needed her, and other actress wouldn’t make it work as well.

[Hatebox]

Happy to eat a bit of crow over this M:I number - goodwill for both Cruise and the series was as high as it could ever get, and action fans hadn’t exactly been spoiled so far this summer. It’s, at the very least, a mild surprise. 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Nah, you are missing a big part of the equation here. Barbie wouldn’t work without Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig. And I say this with confidence even before watching the film. It needed her, and other actress wouldn’t make it work as well.

I like Robbie a lot and think her casting is fantastic, but let’s not pretend anyone thought her presence guaranteed quality + success here…