The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[kayumanggi]

 

[excel1]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

One of the greatest marketing campaigns of all time if the film does indeed open that high. Even now, I would put it up there with Pearl Harbor, 300, Transformers, and few other non sequels.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Souther said:

why doesn't domestic audience care about Mission Impossible? Tom Cruise can make the best film of the century but the US ignores him every single time. Such a shame!!!

Hispanic countries whether in Europe or America are absolute trash for MI, worse than US

[John Marston]

If Mi7 opens only slightly above IJ5 like some say it ain’t reaching 200 million 

[Flip]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Action thrillers have a ceiling. We saw this with John Wick 4. That's what makes TGM run so wild. 

I don't think MI is at it's ceiling yet, we'll see it hit it next year with part 2.

[Bobzaruni]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

Also had a big jump to 4.4k.

That's insanely good for it

[LegionWrex]

3 minutes ago, Flip said:

I don't think MI is at it's ceiling yet, we'll see it hit it next year with part 2.

If Dead Reckoning Part Two is advertised as the finale to the series (which there seems to be mixed word on whether or not it is) then it will be easily the highest grossing in the series.

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Hispanic countries whether in Europe or America are absolute trash for MI, worse than US

I can testify. Don’t think Brazil is that big on M:I either. Maybe more than the other South American countries, but then again we are the biggest one.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

If Mi7 opens only slightly above IJ5 like some say it ain’t reaching 200 million 

Why? that would be more than Fallout did it's first 5 days. Oh right Barbenheimer.  Remember when adult audiences went to more than one movie a month. Those were the days. Now they sit on their ass wondering when a movie will be streaming. 

[Belakor]

90m opening for MI7 should be good, its going to have strong WOM.

I can see it reaching 300m if it hits the audience like Top Gun maverick did. 

 

WW I also expect strong numbers.

[ZattMurdock]

14 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

If Dead Reckoning Part Two is advertised as the finale to the series (which there seems to be mixed word on whether or not it is) then it will be easily the highest grossing in the series.

I’m pretty sure Cruise has gone on record saying he has no intention of stopping making Mission: Impossible films after the Part 2 of this one. 
 

 

Also a reminder: there was a time that Paramount wanted to pivot the Mission: Impossible series to Jeremy Renner. I don’t think even Cruise could stop them of pivoting the series to someone else eventually. It’s not like Paramount is raking on franchises.

[Belakor]

The last MI movie did 11M in Mexico and 8M in Brazil, the biggest and second largest markets there. So its ok, not too bad. 

 

[rebelscum86]

4 minutes ago, Belakor said:

90m opening for MI7 should be good, its going to have strong WOM.

I can see it reaching 300m if it hits the audience like Top Gun maverick did. 

 

WW I also expect strong numbers.

 

I see 90-110m with a final of 250-280

[Cmasterclay]

I think MI will disappoint relative to some wild expectations for it but not relative to the fact that it is a Part One without a clear hook to elevate it above other entries in a strong series with a clear ceiling. I think the 300m predicts were always hopium based on Maverick when without Maverick this actually would be poised to drop from Fallout based on several factors.

[mikeymichael]

After Top Gun 2's runaway success last year, I thought there might be a big Cruise-related boost—I thought perhaps it could approach 300m domestic or something—but it just doesn't seem like it's gonna happen at this point. Thing is, if a really established franchise wants to make a huge leap from installment to installment, you need the presence of a special x-factor (Dark Knight, Skyfall, Furious 7, etc. all had one) that unlocks a new segment of the moviegoing audience, and I think the hype surrounding Barbie & Oppenheimer has basically precluded any shot that DR had of doing so, even with amazing reviews and (I'm guessing) great WOM. Looks like 250m is the ceiling at this point and that's totally fine.

[WorkingonaName]

Just now, mikeymichael said:

After Top Gun 2's runaway success last year, I thought there might be a big Cruise-related boost—I thought perhaps it could approach 300m domestic or something—but it just doesn't seem like it's gonna happen at this point. Thing is, if a really established franchise wants to make a huge leap from installment to installment, you need the presence of a special x-factor (Dark Knight, Skyfall, Furious 7, etc. all had one) that unlocks a new segment of the moviegoing audience, and I think the hype surrounding Barbie & Oppenheimer has basically precluded any shot that DR had of doing so, even with amazing reviews and (I'm guessing) great WOM. Looks like 250m is the ceiling at this point and that's totally fine.

So we either need to kill tom cruise or have him appear at the next Olympics.

[Borobudur]

4 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Is MI7 expected to play well outside of metros like Indy 5 did or no?

Actually Indy 5 has a very strong weekend numbers as summer tentpole. The first Saturday has a stronger Sat than normal summer blockbuster and this 2nd weekend confirm the movie is very weekend movie. MI7 should be able to at least match that trajectory. 

[Algebra]

19 minutes ago, mikeymichael said:

After Top Gun 2's runaway success last year, I thought there might be a big Cruise-related boost—I thought perhaps it could approach 300m domestic or something—but it just doesn't seem like it's gonna happen at this point. Thing is, if a really established franchise wants to make a huge leap from installment to installment, you need the presence of a special x-factor (Dark Knight, Skyfall, Furious 7, etc. all had one) that unlocks a new segment of the moviegoing audience, and I think the hype surrounding Barbie & Oppenheimer has basically precluded any shot that DR had of doing so, even with amazing reviews and (I'm guessing) great WOM. Looks like 250m is the ceiling at this point and that's totally fine.

Things not falling off a cliff = boost

 

Look at how every non-fantasy action franchise has done recently outside of TGM. They’ve all fallen off quite a bit or in the case of JW4, moved up slightly.

 

The fact that MI’s opening to franchise high numbers amidst a sea of disappointment in practically all its major markets (outside China ofc) is a huge TGM boost.

 

Maybe I’m just coping, maybe it’s the practical take…who knows. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Algebra

[emoviefan]

56 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

So we either need to kill tom cruise or have him appear at the next Olympics.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Actually Indy 5 has a very strong weekend numbers as summer tentpole. The first Saturday has a stronger Sat than normal summer blockbuster and this 2nd weekend confirm the movie is very weekend movie. MI7 should be able to at least match that trajectory. 

It's like adults work during the week.  Weird.