The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Fanboy]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-3, Milton, ON

 

Sales at 242, which is only a 13% increase over yesterday, which is the lowest daily increase of the past week. Auditorium isn't at capacity, so, it's not that. Not sure if it's an anomaly, or calm before the storm, with full review embargo coming and EA shows tomorrow.

 

ATSV jumped huge at same point of time, so it lost a lot against that comp.

 

11.00x of TLM for $113.3M

1.308x of ATSV for $22.7M

1.582x of MI7 for $11.1M

Even if the auditorium isn’t at capacity could it be that desirable seats are becoming scarce which you mentioned the day before? Also what made it increase drastically compared to the Little Mermaid? 

[vale9001]

18 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

This is why I have been hesitating to join the bandwagon that many people are clamoring for, that “this will get studios to bring back multiple big releases in the same weekend”. Of course, this time, this trend has helped Oppenheimer, and maybe Barbie to a lesser extent. But big releases will always fight for screens, and usually both lose. This time Oppy seems to be the loser (surely aided by screen time too). I’ve been very frustrated with the stagnant screening numbers in the MSP theaters I track  

 

I agree with you in general but in this particolar situation everything nolan is making over 40-45M is because of all the internet craziness.

So I don't think there is something frustrating here. It's selling more than it would have sell even with more space to grow up. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by vale9001

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-3	Jax	6	70	275	1,752	8,401	20.85%
		Phx	7	73	190	1,691	11,047	15.31%
		Ral	8	61	306	2,053	6,793	30.22%
	Total		21	204	771	5,496	26,241	20.94%
Barbie (EA)	T-2	Jax	2	3	17	269	319	84.33%
		Phx	1	1	0	202	208	97.12%
		Ral	2	2	8	183	190	96.32%
	Total		5	6	25	654	717	91.21%
Oppenheimer	T-3	Jax	6	28	147	893	5,083	17.57%
		Phx	6	27	48	741	4,102	18.06%
		Ral	8	27	104	859	3,258	26.37%
	Total		20	82	299	2,493	12,443	20.04%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Oppenheimer T-3 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .496x (8.93m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .629x (9.24m)

 - Avatar 2 - .523x (8.9m)

 - Matrix (OD) - missed

 - Dune - 2.115x (10.78m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.825x (13.14m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.384x (12.18m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .405x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.46m

 

Currently expecting around 9m previews.  I would think ATP would be pretty high with the PLF skew, but maybe not as great walkups on Thursday due to length. 

 

Barbie (Total) T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.291x (21.95m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.224x (22.03m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.088x (21m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 30.75x (22.45m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.277x (19.66m)

 - Eternals - 2.314x (21.98m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.467x

 

Size adjusted average - 21.3m

 

Barbie (Thu) T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.154x (19.62m)

 - JW3 - 1.295x (22.93m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.386x (20.38m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27.48x (20.06m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.93x (17.57m)

 - Eternals - 2.068x (19.64m)

 

Size adjusted average - 20.23m

 

Current expectations... ~19m for true Thursday, but EA should push it well over 20m (maybe 21m total).  Lower ATP that will continue to decline as Dolby shows are running out of space.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-2	Jax	6	75	334	2,086	9,095	22.94%
		Phx	7	79	415	2,106	12,078	17.44%
		Ral	8	63	393	2,446	7,130	34.31%
	Total		21	217	1,142	6,638	28,303	23.45%
Barbie (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	3	8	277	319	86.83%
		Phx	1	1	-1	201	208	96.63%
		Ral	2	2	0	183	190	96.32%
	Total		5	6	7	661	717	92.19%
Oppenheimer	T-2	Jax	6	28	166	1,059	5,083	20.83%
		Phx	6	27	185	926	4,102	22.57%
		Ral	8	28	117	976	3,324	29.36%
	Total		20	83	468	2,961	12,509	23.67%

 

Oppenheimer T-2 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .505x (9.1m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .633x (9.3m)

 - Avatar 2 - .555x (9.43m)

 - Dune - 1.965x (10.02m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.799x (12.95m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.44x (12.67m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .406x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.5m

 

Movie	T-3 -> Today	T-6 -> T-3	T-9 -> T-6	Last Day
Oppenheimer	48.87%	23.38%	22.31%	18.77%
JW3 Total				16.62%
Top Gun 2	51.55%	21.37%	14.42%	18.06%
Avatar 2	36.18%	21.54%		12.05%
Dune			21.67%	27.82%
Indiana Jones	45.66%	23.27%	9.11%	20.50%
M:I 7 Total	54.24%	25.43%	14.08%	14.16%

T = Today

 

Keeping pace with most comps over the weekend and a better day than most.  Bumping my projection to 9.5m

 

Barbie (Total) T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.368x (23.25m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.246x (22.42m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.125x (21.71m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27.75x (20.26m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.401x (20.41m)

 - Eternals - 2.419x (22.98m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.465x

 

Size adjusted average - 22.59m

 

Barbie pace chart. 

 

Movie	T-3 -> Today	T-6 -> T-3	T-9 -> T-6	Last Day
Barbie Total	52.32%	31.34%	31.00%	18.68%
Avatar 2	36.18%	21.54%		12.05%
JW3 Total				16.62%
Top Gun 2 Total	42.02%	20.64%	12.63%	14.79%
I Wanna Dance	53.80%	28.65%	14.75%	31.50%
Fantastic Beasts 3			27.47%	14.33%
Eternals	31.17%	16.30%		13.51%

T = Today

 

Amazing pace in every column.  Can't wait to see how high this can fly.

 

Barbie (Thu) T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.244x (21.14m)

 - JW3 - 1.312x (23.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.418x (20.85m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 25.24x (18.42m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.09x (18.56m)

 - Eternals - 2.2x (20.9m)

 

Size adjusted average - 21.67m

 

It's really hard to predict this one as it's not really tracking like anything else.  Gut feeling is it slows a little in the last couple days and end up with a ~20m Thursday + ~2m EA.  I'm seeing more Dolby shows being added so that'll help ATP a little. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-10	Jax	5	31	2	92	3,813	2.41%
		Phx	6	27	3	76	4,543	1.67%
		Ral	8	30	2	59	3,672	1.61%
	Total		19	88	7	227	12,028	1.89%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-9	Jax	2	2	3	48	395	12.15%
		Phx	1	1	1	59	208	28.37%
	Total		4	4	4	107	603	17.74%
Talk to Me	T-10	Jax	5	13	1	6	1,218	0.49%
		Phx	5	11	2	17	1,258	1.35%
		Ral	6	16	0	6	1,567	0.38%
	Total		16	40	3	29	4,043	0.72%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-10 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .731x (2.48m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .134x (2.86m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.591x (5.21m)

 - Nope - .788x (5.04m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .595x (3.72m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .398x (2.39m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.151x (8.51m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.2m

 

Talk to Me T-10 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .172x (515k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 2.07x (2.49m)*

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 2.42x (2.33m)*

 

*(I hesitate to put these with 14 and 2 tickets sold respectively.  One family could make a reservation and double the sales so it hardly means anything)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-9	Jax	5	31	3	95	3,813	2.49%
		Phx	6	27	27	103	4,543	2.27%
		Ral	8	30	2	61	3,672	1.66%
	Total		19	88	32	259	12,028	2.15%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-8	Jax	2	2	7	55	395	13.92%
		Phx	1	1	2	61	208	29.33%
	Total		4	4	9	116	603	19.24%
Talk to Me	T-9	Jax	5	14	2	8	1,269	0.63%
		Phx	5	11	0	17	1,258	1.35%
		Ral	6	16	0	6	1,567	0.38%
	Total		16	41	2	31	4,094	0.76%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-9 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .805x (2.74m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .128x (2.88m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.79x (5.49m)

 - Nope - .796x (5.1m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .598x (3.74m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .415x (2.49m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.074x (8.3m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.28m

 

Talk to Me T-9 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .175x (525k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 2.214x (2.66m)*

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3.1x (2.99m)*

 

*(I hesitate to put these with 14 and 10 tickets sold respectively.  One family could make a reservation and double the sales so it hardly means anything)

[vafrow]

2 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

Even if the auditorium isn’t at capacity could it be that desirable seats are becoming scarce which you mentioned the day before? Also what made it increase drastically compared to the Little Mermaid? 

 

Little Mermaid did horribly at my theatre. Canada as a whole underindexed, and my theatre seemed to underperform even to that. I've kept it as a comp as the only other female blockbuster though.

 

As for seats, there's still some good chunk of seats available for a large group. It could be a factor, but, even with sales being much stronger than comps, auditorium is still only at 50% capacity.

 

Sales were really strong on the weekend though,so, I attribute it more to an anomaly than anything, but, @M37 has noted a slowdown on growth elsewhere, so, it could be that as well.

 

I'm tracking at a singular theatre, so, everything has to be taken with a grain of salt. A couple of individual buying decisions can influence a lot. 

 

I appreciate the questions though. I'm never quite sure if what I'm putting out there makes sense, and happy to help explain it better or take suggestions to make it easier to understand.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-15	Jax	5	40	4	38	5,828	0.65%
		Phx	6	59	8	87	8,926	0.97%
		Ral	5	35	2	62	5,055	1.23%
	Total		16	134	14	187	19,809	0.94%
Turtles (EA)	T-12	Jax	4	6	7	50	384	13.02%
		Phx	1	1	0	15	169	8.88%
		Ral	3	3	0	64	433	14.78%
	Total		8	10	7	129	986	13.08%
	T-14	Jax	5	7	9	72	961	7.49%
		Phx	1	1	7	56	208	26.92%
	Total		7	9	16	128	1,169	10.95%

 

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Turtles (Total) T-15 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .27x (5.75m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .178x (3.21m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.09x (6.82m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.78x (7.45m w/ today's average)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.72m

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-14	Jax	5	40	8	46	5,828	0.79%
		Phx	6	59	0	87	8,926	0.97%
		Ral	5	35	0	62	5,055	1.23%
	Total		16	134	8	195	19,809	0.98%
Turtles (EA)	T-11	Jax	4	6	5	55	384	14.32%
		Phx	1	1	1	16	169	9.47%
		Ral	3	3	4	68	433	15.70%
	Total		8	10	10	139	986	14.10%
	T-13	Jax	5	7	5	77	961	8.01%
		Phx	1	1	7	63	208	30.29%
	Total		7	9	12	140	1,169	11.98%

 

Turtles (Total) T-14 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .272x (6.15m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .186x (3.34m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.11x (6.94m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.79x (7.65m w/ today's average)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.84m

[M37]

Gonna echo what Porthos and TwoMisfits are reporting, spot checking some markets for theaters that have their weekend schedule up. Working bottom to top:

• Everything from ATSV and below is going to be almost completely wiped out. Quite analogous, both in titles and counts, to Thor weekend last year (when Thor & Minions combined for $190M), with 5 titles in 3000+ locations, two more above 2K (horror & family), and only one other managing to hit 1K
• Sure looks like Disney is requiring that Elemental be held on a full screen - didn't find a single location having it split, playing all the way through 10pm. Understand, given the holds, but also limits options, and other studios are usually flexible in the wake of Disney's tentpole openings that they just don't feel inclined to reciprocate
• Frankly, ditto for Insidious - all full screen show sets. Sony fighting to hold those shows and let ATSV die I guess
• Indy also a full screen everywhere its playing
• SOF, MI7 being held, 1-2 screens depending on location/business. No surprise there
• Cobweb also opening limited, plus a small run of the Toy Story special engagement

With all those holdovers pushing a full screen (or even 2!), that limits what is left available for Barbenheimer. Oppy really looks to be drawing the short straw on screens, crowded out by holdover requirements and Barbie presales, and with a 3+ hour running time, shows will be limited, with very few in prime hours. Barbie is of course, picking up the rest: generally a >2:1 ratio (one location was 36 vs 11). Standard 16-plex is likely getting 6B/3O, holding 2/1/1/1/1, with just 1 screen left to play with, often Cobweb or 2nd SOF rather than the other holdovers

 

On 7/8/2022 at 8:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

US showtime sample for 7/8/22 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change*	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Thor 4	3,540	194,969		154,911	40,058	5,964	23,730
Minions 2	3,442	96,027	-24.93%	89,388	6,639	0	6,187
Top Gun 2	2,985	41,333	-29.58%	41,195	138	6	0
Elvis	3,059	34,088	-29.15%	34,013	75	0	0
Jurassic World 3	2,716	31,368	-32.83%	30,949	419	0	338
The Black Phone	2,271	31,189	-29.61%	31,134	55	0	0
Lightyear	1,764	19,656	-55.81%	19,512	144	0	98
Mr. Malcolm's List	1,002	4,472	-71.82%	4,464	8	0	0
Everything Everywhere	181	1,113	-59.36%	1,113	0	0	0
Marcel the Shell	40	695		695	0	0	0

 

Very curious to see whether Barbenheimer can get to the same 290K show level as Thor + Minions (this count doesn't include Thursday shows for Minions as it was week 2, but also a much shorter run time) and how other titles stack up (MI7 vs TGM, SOF vs Elvis, Indy vs JWD, Indisious vs BP, Elemental vs Lightyear, ATSV vs Malcolm)

[rehpyc]

16 hours ago, rehpyc said:

Oppenheimer T-5

Ava2: 10.6M

TGM: 9.9M

Dune: 11.0M

IJ: 15.2M

FX: 21.6M

JW4: 21.1M

 

Oppenheimer T-4

Ava2: 10.7M

TGM: 10.0M

Dune: 11.2M

IJ: 15.5M

FX: 21.7M

JW4: 20.8M

Oppenheimer T-3

Ava2: 10.8M

TGM: 9.7M

Dune: 10.8M

IJ5: 15.0M

FX: 20.4M

JW4: 19.3M

[rehpyc]

17 hours ago, rehpyc said:

T-5 Barbie

JW4: 31.1M

AtSV: 28.4M

FX: 31.9M

GoTG3: 18.5M

TLM: 27.1M

A2: 15.7M

TGM: 14.6M

L&T: 17.4M

BP2: 14.1M

NWH: 9.8M

 

T-4 Barbie

JW4: 32.0M

AtSV: 30.0M

FX: 33.3M

GoTG3: 19.6M

TLM: 28.4M

A2: 16.5M

TGM: 15.4M

L&T: 19.1M

BP2: 15.2M

NWH: 10.9M

T-3 Barbie

JW4: 31.0M

AtSV: 29.4M

GoTG3: 20.0M

TLM: 28.1M

Ava2: 17.3M

TGM: 15.6M

L&T: 20.3M

BP2: 16.0M

NWH: 11.8M

[Madhuvan]

Wow tracking numbers for Barbie are insane

So excited to be back. Can't miss the event of the Decade 

[M37]

On 7/15/2023 at 11:49 AM, M37 said:

Barbenheimer T-7 Update

 

Both films just keep chugging along, really going to be a special weekend. Again using spoiler boxes to limit size of post

 

Charts:

  Reveal hidden contents

Average here is probably a bit overstated, thinking more $9M than $9.5M

 

Even excluding some of the way high comps, average still over $21M

 

Combined, still ahead of Thor/BWPF, putting $30M+ in play

 

For Barbie, now this is where things get complicated...

  Reveal hidden contents

From a blind, pure growth rate analysis projection, I would have Barbie reaching 500K tickets sold for Alpha, on the level of Thor & BPWF all by herself ... but that just doesn't seem realistic. The more likely outcome is that the growth rate cools off - can see some flattening out vs comps in last couple of updates - but by how much?

 

I do share some of the concerns that @TwoMisfits expressed yesterday, in that a female driven audience, one where for some going to the movie is as important as actually watching it, has a very real chance of already having sold the bulk of its tickets and not coming close to the growth over the final week as most of these high volume comps (outside super fan heavy MCU)

 

One recent, but certainly imperfect, comp might be Don't Worry Darling, which Deadline reported as 71% F for the OW. There wasn't a whole lot of tracking on it in this thread (starts roughly here), but it was the epitome of early sales and limited walk-ups. For example, in Philly the growth over the final week was a hair under +100%, way below ASTV (+236%), Mermaid (+159%, but overindexed so higher early sales), and even GOTG3 (+115%) for this market. To give a sense of how that affects the $ value, the Dune comp dropped 19% from T-6, Morbius -34%, and ATSV would have been -40%

 

My gut feeling is that we've reached the peak of average values vs comps, and will continue to see some flattening and/or turning down, but to what value is not clear. Maybe it settles into a more normal growth pattern from here (like ASTV or Mermaid), and still winds up over $20M, but do not believe that threshold for Thursday is locked, could even see it as "low" as $15-$16M, if we were to see a similar trajectory from T-7 as Avatar 2 or TGM

 

Oppenheimer, however:

  Reveal hidden contents

Nothing really of concern here, values are rising steadily as Oppy rides Barbie's coattails. Though due to the heavy PLF draw and older audience, expecting a good chunk of final sales have already been banked, and so not expecting a huge final week, definitely more in Indy 5/TGM/Avatar range, which would land in the ~200K or below final ticket sales for Alpha, which may also overindex (lower PSM). Would think a value closer to $9M (if not below) is more likely than $10M, but the data also supports the higher values at present

 

However, it is difficult to say yet how wide of net Oppy will cast, whether it will play well to older, casual viewers like MI7, Indy 5, TGM, or have business be concentrated in bigger markets - whether the subject or the director is the primary draw here

 

What about IM/OW?

  Reveal hidden contents

Want to be clear: even though I've tried above to pump the breaks a bit, there are enough sales that even a "weak" finish is still going to be a massive OW for each for each film, and combined at least approaching the level of BPWF ($181.3M) and Strange MoM( $187.4) even it ultimately falls short (and being in summer, should surpass the $220M/$230M first week totals for both)

 

The Drafthouse sales numbers for FSS are really good. At T-7, Friday is already ahead of Thursday, with Saturday even higher, for both Barbie and Oppenheimer. Barbie is ahead of ATSV at this same checkpoint, which landed a nearly 7x back in June. The last Alpha weekend numbers I saw (on T-12) were very similar for both films as where Drafthouse is pointing. Oppy is even better, almost close to Avatar 2's ratios, which was similarly driven by high PLF demand pushing sales later into the weekend, and let to an 8x, albeit in December rather than July.

 

With the caveat that these are both probably going to be early presale heavy films, particularly at Drafthouse (and especially for Barbie where lack of capacity is rolling sales forward), think both films have a good shot at hitting a 7x plus, maybe even 8x or more for Oppy. Do not see any reason in the sales numbers to expect an IM lower than ~6.5x, unless the sales really hit a wall and just don't have much in the way of walk-ups

 

I'm not going to roll out any forecast matrices just yet, want to see how the weekend sales go first, but I'll just say I think generally we're heading towards at least a high $20M combined preview (with $30M+ total and $20M+ for Barbie in play), Barbie is in range of topping both GOTG3 and ATSV for second highest OW, though I'm hesitant to lean into the $140M or even $150M range yet, while Oppenheimer is solidly climbing ahead of the MI7 range, to more of the Flash/Transformers/Indy 5 level

 

And finally ::sigh::

  Reveal hidden contents

It is absolutely plausible that Barbie in fact winds up with nearly the same $17.5M preview and ~$120M OW as both GOTG3 and ATSV

 

Also, fun fact (per Reddit!): the highest grossing OW without IMAX is $121.9M, by Mockingjay Part 1, which didn't have them because a Christopher Nolan film (Interstellar) did instead

 

Barbenheimer T-3 Update

 

Was hoping to have last Alpha update to add into, but instead just keeping those values flat form yesterday so as not to throw off averages too much

 

Charts:

Spoiler

Definitely some leveling off here

 

 

Some here, but still generally growing vs comps

 

And combined:

 

Analysis

Spoiler

Its very difficult at this point to find a Barbie comp that's under $20M for Thursday, unless you start dipping into MCU tentpoles or Avatar 2, with huge fan rush and lower pace finish (or a few in Sacto).  I still think we're going to somewhat of pace slowdown, if not by nature of the hype and audience demos pulling sales earlier, than simply by pushing up against limits on capacity

 

I know the capacity issue keeps coming up, so time to put some numbers to it: At T-4, ATSV had 4K shows and 750K seats allocated for MTC1, growing to nearly 5K and 860K+ by T-1. Meanwhile, Barbie at T-4 (slightly different sample), has only 2,880 shows and less than 460K seats in total, and while that number should rise, it seems unlikely to even match ATSV ... which had reports of lack of seats for Thursday's $17.35M preview gross, and that was with the full PLF run helping to boost ATP (meaning Barbie has to sell more tickets to match the $ value). And just for fun, GOTG3 at T-1 had over 7000 shows and nearly 1.2M seats available, with Thor last July a bit higher for its $29M Thursday preview gross

 

But with all that said, and less confidence than usual, I guess put me down for $9-$10M+ for Oppy, and ~$21-25M for Barbie, and a combined preview of at least $30M, above anything since Strange MoM's $36M. But also want to plant a flag that anything on the lower end or even outside of it shouldn't be viewed as "disappointing", because even at T-3 there really hasn't been a comp that has reveled itself as lighting the way, so we don't really know if those mid-$20M values for Barbie are to be "expected" from this point

 

Weekend sales look very strong for both, so even if the presale pace does tail off a bit, still should see solid IMs (for summer) and a $200M+ combined OW is very much in range

[hasanahmad]

wrong thread

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by hasanahmad

[Spidey Freak]

7 hours ago, DisposedData said:

I really think that's just the case for Oppenheimer 

 

Yeah, Barbie broke the internetz right when the rollerskate BTS pics leaked. The This Barbie is posters then created a hype avalanche. I think it's probably just boosted by 5-10% thanks to Oppy, if even that.

[spizzer]

Exciting, historic weekend coming.  Wish I was still in the tracking game.

Edited July 18, 2023 by spizzer

[The Wild Eric]

https://deadline.com/2023/07/release-date-box-office-actors-strike-impact-1235440396/

 

Largely full of speculation (apparently no plans for any big delays for Q3 and Q4, though who knows?), but there are some tracking details in the middle here.

 

Haunted Mansion: 30M+

Meg 2: 28M+

TMNT: 40M+ 5-day

Gran Turismo: 25M+

[misterpepp]

Last Voyage of the Demeter tix on July 25

[Truckasaurus]

34 minutes ago, Eric Bainbridge said:

https://deadline.com/2023/07/release-date-box-office-actors-strike-impact-1235440396/

 

Largely full of speculation (apparently no plans for any big delays for Q3 and Q4, though who knows?), but there are some tracking details in the middle here.

 

Haunted Mansion: 30M+

Meg 2: 28M+

TMNT: 40M+ 5-day

Gran Turismo: 25M+

Seems too high on Gran Turismo, no? Everything else looks fair to me.

[vafrow]

My local theatre just updated showtimes for this weekend.

 

It looks like Barbie and Oppenheimer are sharing the AVX screen (Cineplexs premium screen). Barbie gets the midday and afternoon show. Oppenheimer only gets one showing, but at 7:00 pm (guess they don't want to have staff until 1:00 am). They each get one auditorium to themselves. Oppenheimers is on ths small side.

 

MI7 still gets two non premium screens. Indy, Insidious and ATSV all get one.

 

Elemental is dropped surprisingly, along with Transformers and Mermaid. Makes some sense on Elemental, ATSV has been a monster performer here. 

 

I'm going to try and do a full show count for the region later tonight or tomorrow, once all theatres update.

 

 

[joselowe]

58 minutes ago, Eric Bainbridge said:

https://deadline.com/2023/07/release-date-box-office-actors-strike-impact-1235440396/

 

Largely full of speculation (apparently no plans for any big delays for Q3 and Q4, though who knows?), but there are some tracking details in the middle here.

 

Haunted Mansion: 30M+

Meg 2: 28M+

TMNT: 40M+ 5-day

Gran Turismo: 25M+

Grab Turismo is too high. A sports movie starring a newbie in the middle of summer. Don’t see it happening.

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Grab Turismo is too high. A sports movie starring a newbie in the middle of summer. Don’t see it happening.

I think it has potential. Branding gives it an edge over any random sports movie.