The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/18/2023 at 3:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Wednesday	5 Showings	620	+4	649
T-2 Thursday	173 Showings	8196	+1205	19756

2.235	AtSV T-2	38.78M
3.171	TLM T-2	32.66M

 

T-3 Friday

317 Showings

13698

+2449

38115

3.070	AtSV T-3	105.91M
2.212	TLM T-3	61.61M

 

T-4 Saturday

323 Showings

8033

+1612

38998

3.209	AtSV T-4	120.03M
1.699	TLM T-4	51.16M

 

T-5 Sunday

310 Showings

4543

+1146

37404

4.480	AtSV T-5	140.01M
2.251	TLM T-5	61.48M

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Wednesday	5 Showings	646	+26	649
T-1 Thursday	231 Showings	10363	+2167	24149

2.052	AtSV T-1	35.60M
3.098	TLM T-1	31.91M

 

T-2 Friday

392 Showings

17068

+3370

43913

2.868	AtSV T-2	98.93M
2.146	TLM T-2	59.75M

 

T-3 Saturday

392 Showings

10197

+2164

44540

3.013	AtSV T-3	112.70M
1.731	TLM T-3	52.13M

 

T-4 Sunday

381 Showings

5918

+1375

43296

4.115

AtSV T-4

128.61M

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Could we see a better IM than Dunkirk’s 9.1x, maybe closer to 10x? You could extrapolate to some really big numbers off an IM that big

Definitely possible. Let us see how things go. Not just MTC1 but @Inceptionzq updates for Drafthouse and Emagine shows how backloaded the sales are. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/18/2023 at 5:53 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
124	3486	22736	15.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

360

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.398x) of Fast X

~$10.49M THUR Previews

 

(1.146x) of Indy 5

~$8.25M THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $9.37M

 

Another day of increase.

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
127	4031	23285	17.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

545

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.359x) of Fast X

~$10.19M THUR Previews

 

(1.139x) of Indy 5

~$8.2M THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $9.19M

 

From face value, it looks good, but echoing what @Porthos said not the best day. Decreased against both comps, but still over $9M previews.  

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/18/2023 at 6:06 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	407	27662	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	416	1756	23.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-14

*With EA

 

(1.797x) of Elemental

~$4.31M TUE Previews + EA

 

(0.908x) of Elemental

~$2.18M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.25M 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	408	27662	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	439	1756	25.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-13

*With EA

 

(0.852x) of Elemental

~$2.04M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(3.001x) of Ruby Gillman

~$2.25M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

AVG: $2.14M TUE only + $1Mish EA = $3.14M+

 

Weird day locally. Maybe my scraper skipped a showing...

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

Honestly, 5pm is probably the worst possible time they could have picked for a 3hr run time (4hr gap) film. Led to a default (and often IMAX) schedule of 5p/9p - no shows in what is typically the prime zone, too early and too late respectively for people working typical M-F/9-5 jobs, and max 2 shows on any given screen

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Not really sure what Oppenheimer could have done differently if it wanted to keep this date as this isn't the type of film that would have attracted much of a crowd at 3pm (or worse, 2pm).  Might have made things worse with a 3/7/11 schedule as opposed to a 5/9 | 6/10.   Maaaaaaybe 4pm showings?  Say, 4/8/12??  Probably not though.

As evidenced in my report, a high percentage of theaters are doing a 5/9 and 6/10 screen along with a 7/split with something else (maybe M:I?).  I don’t think adding a 3pm show would do enough to warrant cutting into other movies even more.  Barbie is the sole one to blame for lack of space in my opinion.

[charlie Jatinder]

55 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

how does MI7 losing more shows than indian jones and insidious make sense?

is that what happens when your market cap is only 10 billion?

or is that normal considering the loss of all plfs?

Disney is the the champion of cinema that people claim Tom Cruise is. Disney keep (kept) them in biz. So nobody says no to Disney.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/18/2023 at 6:08 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1573	19452	8.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

63

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.537x) of TLM

~$5.53M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1634	19452	8.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

61

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.529x) of TLM

~$5.44M THUR Previews

 

Trending downwards ever so slightly 

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Talk To Me

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
32	131	5408	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.048x) of Boogeyman

~$1.15M THUR Previews

[Shawn Robbins]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

As evidenced in my report, a high percentage of theaters are doing a 5/9 and 6/10 screen along with a 7/split with something else (maybe M:I?).  I don’t think adding a 3pm show would do enough to warrant cutting into other movies even more.  Barbie is the sole one to blame for lack of space in my opinion.

From a logistics standpoint as well, I suspect Paramount lobbied hard to ensure MI7 has at least one Thursday show in IMAX this week. For a near-3 hour film itself, and Universal wanting to keep Nolan happy by making sure Oppenheimer doesn't start in another format first, that may have made 5pm the earliest possible target.

 

I'm speculating there, of course.

[ZackM]

2 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

I'll take a look when I get home from work, but it might be tough since I don't keep those numbers in a neat reference table.

 

None of these are perfect because of the timing of the tracking runs, but they should give an idea.

 

T-3 Friday Comps for Oppenheimer

 

Indy5 - 40-45M

A2 - 30-35M

JWD - 34-39M

MI7 - 40-45M

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/18/2023 at 6:02 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
282	8897	50487	17.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1204

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

44

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1601	1747	91.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

44

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

7

 

 

COMPS

T-2

*Excludes any EA

 

(3.128x) of RoTB

~$27.5M THUR Previews

 

(3.569x) of Fast X

~$26.77M THUR Previews

 

(1.315x) of ATSV

~$22.8M THUR Previews

 

(1.026x) of GOTG 3

~$18.0M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $23.77M THUR Previews 

 

It passed GOTG vol 3 in comps. This is just pure madness lol. $120M OW is essentially locked. Comps will point to ~$25M by Thursday morning, If I had to guess. 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
303	10592	56355	18.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1695

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1642	1747	93.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

7

 

 

COMPS

T-1

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.816x) of RoTB

~$24.78M THUR Previews

 

(3.570x) of Fast X

~$26.77M THUR Previews

 

(1.277x) of ATSV

~$22.15M THUR Previews

 

(1.130x) of GOTG 3

~$19.77M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $23.37M THUR Previews 

 

Excellent day. From the looks of it ~$23M previews including EA and adjusted down for ATP difference

[Menor the Destroyer]

Barbie Marcus Theaters

 

Wed: 9288/10250, 60 shows

Thu: 20934/105183, 809 shows

 

Combined comp: 0.947x Black Panther 2 (26.5 million)

 

Fri: 34956/183275, 1407 shows

 

Comp: 0.836x Black Panther 2 (46 million)

 

[ZackM]

I should have final numbers for Alpha Barbie Early Access in the next few hours too.  As of last night nearly 96% of seats had been sold, so I can't wait to see how close it gets to 100%.  It's honestly the most incredible thing I've seen since I've been tracking.  Even taking the small number of screens into account.

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Barbie Marcus Theaters

 

Wed: 9288/10250, 60 shows

Thu: 20934/105183, 809 shows

 

Combined comp: 0.947x Black Panther 2 (26.5 million)

 

Fri: 34956/183275, 1407 shows

 

Comp: 0.836x Black Panther 2 (46 million)

 

Fantastic stuff. Its breaking out almost everywhere. 

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I should have final numbers for Alpha Barbie Early Access in the next few hours too.  As of last night nearly 96% of seats had been sold, so I can't wait to see how close it gets to 100%.  It's honestly the most incredible thing I've seen since I've been tracking.  Even taking the small number of screens into account.

 

If it wasn't for one theater insisting on capping its seating at approx the front row, I think all four showings would literally sell out locally.

 

(can still buy tickets via Atom for that one theater, ftr)

Edited July 19, 2023 by Porthos

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Could we be looking into another Avengers (2012) opening for Barbie where everyone know we have a huge success upon ass but we have still underestimated it ? 

[Potiki]

26 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Could we be looking into another Avengers (2012) opening for Barbie where everyone know we have a huge success upon ass but we have still underestimated it ? 

Wrong Avengers film

 

 

I hope Barbie does great though, hopefully we have another Mario on our hands after a pretty so-so Summer.

[Johnny Tran]

This is anecdotal but my timeline has been absolutely flooded with Barbie stuff from people who don't normally post about movies.  Mostly women but some men too.  I just think this is heading for a crazy number.  

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/19/2023 at 12:48 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Oppenheimer (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	76	555	3840	11957	32.12

 

Comps:

1.52x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $13.67 Million

2.24x Indiana Jones- $16.15 Million

 

Tiny drops versus both comps, good holds since it was already overperforming.

 

Barbie (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	158	1013	6115	21306	28.7
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	16	1181	1221	96.72
TOTALS:	164	1029	7296	22527	32.39

 

Comps:

2.89x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $25.97 Million

1.9x Oppenheimer

Just Thursday--> 6.41x Don't Worry Darling- $19.88 Million

 

B-A-N-A-N-A-S

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Oppenheimer (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	87	987	4827	12976	37.2

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	25.7
3-Day:	80.04

 

Comps:

1.5x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $13.54 Million

2.43x Indiana Jones- $17.5 Million

 

Seems like a fine T-1 update, except one of 19 theaters (AMC Southdale) is responsible for over a FOURTH (265/987) of that new seats sold numbr. I triple checked and it does seem like it's the right count, no error, but it's weird. No other theater approaches that number. I'm putting an asterisk by today and it's making me weary of comping growth rates (If I did, its 3-day is higher, 80 vs. 69, but its 1-day is lower, 25.7 vs 28.8, than MI7).

 

Also, one final wtf at the low number of shows

 

Barbie (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	197	1549	7664	25036	30.61
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	17	1198	1221	98.12
TOTALS:	203	1566	8862	26257	33.75

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	21.46
3-Day:	74.45

 

Comps:

2.76x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $24.86 Million

1.84x Oppenheimer

 

I am going to miss what would be the most exciting update of my young tracking career, since I'll be traveling during T-1 hour tomorrow   it's a huge data point I'll be missing, but oh well. I'll be aggressively lurking this sub before and after my flight. Final predictions: can't really make one about Oppenheimer, my numbers are clearly over-indexing; Barbie- without PLFs, but also without the Tuesday discounts that MI7 had, give me $22.5 million, including EA. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[mikeymichael]

Curious to see if Oppenheimer gets a bump from today's reviews and review-related discussion. I feel like today is the first day that the volume of chatter around Oppenheimer has been even louder than Barbie (granted, it's still freaking loud for Barbie)—but maybe that's because my Twitter feed is over-indexed with respect to Nolan-obsessive types.