The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Boxofficerules]

When do Meg 2 reviews drop?

[Fanboy]

I've seen heaps of advertising for the Meg 2 so I'm a little baffled by the presales. It's certainly not something I'm interested in but lots of people love big shark/monster movies and the first one did so well that it should be opening to 50+. 

TMNT seems to be doing okay. Anything over 40M 5 day is fine which should be doable. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

I've seen heaps of advertising for the Meg 2 so I'm a little baffled by the presales. It's certainly not something I'm interested in but lots of people love big shark/monster movies and the first one did so well that it should be opening to 50+.

Dumb fun might have been viable back in 2018, but it doesn't cut it for most people anymore. The shadow of Barbenheimer is also a big reason as to why this one will be lucky to reach the first film's opening number by the end of its run domestically. That being said, it only exists because of China and early presales point a very promising picture there.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/29/2023 at 8:41 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-5	Jax	5	29	13	77	4,698	1.64%
		Phx	5	29	8	29	4,211	0.69%
		Ral	8	21	11	31	2,522	1.23%
	Total		18	79	32	137	11,431	1.20%
Turtles	T-3	Jax	5	50	28	152	6,726	2.26%
		Phx	6	61	16	179	8,532	2.10%
		Ral	8	49	28	206	6,926	2.97%
	Total		19	160	72	537	22,184	2.42%
Turtles (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	6	61	226	384	58.85%
		Phx	1	1	28	107	169	63.31%
		Ral	3	3	87	254	433	58.66%
	Total		8	10	176	587	986	59.53%
	T-2	Jax	5	7	19	231	961	24.04%
		Phx	1	1	5	141	208	67.79%
	Total		7	9	24	372	1,169	31.82%

 

Turtles (Total) T-3 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .243x (5.42m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.26x (7.86m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.97x (6.1m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.1x (7.89m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .8x (4.78m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.605x (7.22m)

 - Dune - 1.27x (6.47m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .886x (7.8m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .831x (7.31m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.7m (two lower comps were missing yesterday which drove up the avg.  Today increased against everything)

 

Turtles pace chart

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles Total	63.86%	29.79%	15.13%	22.22%
Barbie Total	40.57%	32.98%	28.82%	14.87%
Sonic 2 (Total)	49.69%	21.13%	19.94%	16.67%
Haunted Mansion Total	49.31%	26.33%	18.93%	17.28%
Indiana Jones	37.01%	14.74%	12.35%	8.93%
Fantastic Beasts 3	43.61%	30.83%	26.77%
Ghostbusters Total				16.06%
Transformers Total	37.57%			12.38%
M:I 7 Total	50.33%	20.45%	14.27%	15.67%

 

Another great day, but partially because EA shows start today.  Here's the pace chart for true previews

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles	52.56%	25.57%	16.79%	15.48%
Barbie Total	40.57%	32.98%	28.82%	14.87%
Sonic 2	46.52%	21.52%	20.25%	14.34%
Haunted Mansion	49.25%	22.22%	20.08%	18.62%
Indiana Jones	37.01%	14.74%	12.35%	8.93%
Fantastic Beasts 3	43.61%	30.83%	26.77%
Ghostbusters				13.95%
Transformers 6	41.26%			13.64%
M:I 7	52.67%	23.32%	12.70%	15.82%

 

So for previews it was still a little ahead of most comps.  If Tuesday can have the same ramp up that EA shows are having, we could be seeing another Minions type late run.   That being said, comps for true previews are currently looking like ~3m, but I'm guessing that has a lot to do with how widespread the EA shows are.  I wouldn't be surprised with 3m-3.5m total for the EA days when all is said and done.

 

Meg 2 T-5 comps

 - Massive Talent - missed

 - Free Guy - .576x (1.27m)

 - Snake Eyes - 1.269x (1.78m)

 - Beast - 2.362x (2.18m)

 - Old - 2.537x (3.81m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .99x (1.43m)

 

Added a few thrillers to the list.  Those tend to be more walkup heavy which I'm expecting here.  Hoping this can push for 2m at least.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-3	Jax	5	29	13	104	4,698	2.21%
		Phx	5	29	11	58	4,211	1.38%
		Ral	8	21	11	61	2,522	2.42%
	Total		18	79	35	223	11,431	1.95%
Turtles	T-1	Jax	5	50	36	211	6,726	3.14%
		Phx	6	61	36	224	8,532	2.63%
		Ral	8	52	75	300	7,289	4.12%
	Total		19	163	147	735	22,547	3.26%
Turtles (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	7	54	306	961	31.84%
		Phx	1	1	13	158	208	75.96%
	Total		7	9	67	464	1,169	39.69%

*Missed posting yesterday but did pull sales for everything except Strays

 

Switching to previews only comps

 

Turtles (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Barbie (Thu) - .094x (1.99m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .525x (2.61m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .983x (2.85m)

 - Indiana Jones - .385x (2.77m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .296x (1.78m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .525x (2.18m)

 - Dune - .417x (2.13m)

 - Transformers (Thu) - .462x (3.37m)

 - M:I 7 (Tue) - .483x (3.09m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.94m

 

Turtles pace chart

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Barbie	66.10%	32.63%	38.64%	18.23%
Sonic 2	80.88%	28.94%	23.45%	30.60%
Haunted Mansion	78.52%	32.46%	19.79%	20.65%
Indiana Jones	52.39%	27.83%	9.39%	16.10%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Ghostbusters	74.47%	28.14%	18.02%	28.41%
Dune			21.41%	16.99%
Transformers 6	70.78%	25.67%		28.02%
M:I 7	58.27%	31.32%	20.00%	20.81%

 

I've been on the TMNT train for about a week now and I'm not hopping off now.  Pace has been very close to M:I 7, but pulled ahead today.  Having the first EA shows at T-3 messed with the pace a little, but we'll know tomorrow morning if this thing will take off or not. 

 

Turtles (EA) T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - 2.18x (2.77m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .562x (2.59m)

 - Barbie (EA) - 1.578x (1.74m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - 1.184x (1.42m)

 - Sing 2 (EA) - .879x

 - Puss in Boots (EA) - 1.44x

 

My growth rate model puts total EA at 2.5m, but that may be a little high with Saturday's shows being matinee.  There are a lot of PLF EA shows today though, so that would bring the ATP back up a bit.  Overall I'm thinking something like 6.5-7m for total previews, but it will need a big day today.

 

Meg 2 T-3 comps

 - Free Guy - .731x (1.61m)

 - Beast - 2.82x (2.61m)

 - Old - 2.23x (3.35m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.32x (1.91m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - .817x (2.04m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .933x (2.52m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 1.352x (1.49m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.96m

 

Feeling a little better about a 2m previews.  Pace this week will show what type of movie this will be.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/29/2023 at 8:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Last Voyage	T-12	Jax	5	12	0	11	1,387	0.79%
		Phx	5	14	2	4	1,138	0.35%
		Ral	6	15	1	8	1,361	0.59%
	Total		16	41	3	23	3,886	0.59%

 

Last Voyage T-12 comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .277x (720k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .315x (1.58m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Last Voyage	T-10	Jax	5	12	0	11	1,387	0.79%
		Phx	5	14	1	6	1,138	0.53%
		Ral	6	15	0	8	1,361	0.59%
	Total		16	41	1	25	3,886	0.64%

*Missed posting yesterday, but did pull sales

 

Last Voyage T-10 comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .25x (650k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .269x (390k)

 - Northman - .266x (359k)

 - Green Knight - 1.316x (987k)

 - Talk to Me - .862x (1.07m)

 - Beast - 1.19x (1.1m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/29/2023 at 8:43 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-19	Jax	6	15	0	6	1,897	0.32%
		Phx	5	20	3	8	2,081	0.38%
		Ral	5	15	0	10	2,196	0.46%
	Total		16	50	3	24	6,174	0.39%
Strays (EA)	T-18	Jax	2	2	0	3	225	1.33%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	3	922	0.33%

 

Strays (Total) T-19 comps

 - Easter Sunday (7 tickets) - 3.86x (1.93m)

 - D&D (Total) - .365x (2.04m)

 - M3GAN - .964x (2.65m)

 

No idea where this is heading.  Very early to be comping with this low sales.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-18	Jax	6	15	2	8	1,897	0.42%
		Phx	5	20	4	12	2,081	0.58%
		Ral	5	15	6	16	2,196	0.73%
	Total		16	50	12	36	6,174	0.58%
Strays (EA)	T-17	Jax	2	2	0	3	225	1.33%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	3	922	0.33%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Strays (Total) T-17 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.25x (1.63m)

 - D&D (Total) - .312x (1.75m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.3x (1.43m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 2.294x (1.72m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .379x (757k)

[upriser7]

I understood why MI7 released on Wednesday but why is TMNT releasing mid-week on Wednesday with Tuesday premiers ? It's not like there is some holiday that day or anything

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-2	Jax	1	1	11	11	51	21.57%
		Phx	1	1	31	31	123	25.20%
	Total		3	3	42	42	174	24.14%
	T-8	Jax	2	2	9	9	841	1.07%
	T-9	Jax	5	7	55	55	960	5.73%
		Phx	1	1	31	31	208	14.90%
		Ral	1	1	14	14	261	5.36%
	Total		7	9	100	100	1,429	7.00%

 

I suppose Sony is going ahead with the scheduled EA shows as they are still available.  Not much point in comping random smattering of EA days, but these aren't terrible and maybe will help awareness if there is good WOM.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

2 hours ago, Fanboy said:

I've seen heaps of advertising for the Meg 2 so I'm a little baffled by the presales. It's certainly not something I'm interested in but lots of people love big shark/monster movies and the first one did so well that it should be opening to 50+. 

TMNT seems to be doing okay. Anything over 40M 5 day is fine which should be doable. 

To be fair, everyone was hugely pessimistic about the first Meg until the moment it released. I remember how it beat its lifetime expectation in 2 days or so. Not saying the second movie will do the same, but maybe is just one of those franchises that walk-ins talk a lot louder than the pre-sales.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-3	Jax	5	29	13	104	4,698	2.21%
		Phx	5	29	11	58	4,211	1.38%
		Ral	8	21	11	61	2,522	2.42%
	Total		18	79	35	223	11,431	1.95%
Turtles	T-1	Jax	5	50	36	211	6,726	3.14%
		Phx	6	61	36	224	8,532	2.63%
		Ral	8	52	75	300	7,289	4.12%
	Total		19	163	147	735	22,547	3.26%
Turtles (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	7	54	306	961	31.84%
		Phx	1	1	13	158	208	75.96%
	Total		7	9	67	464	1,169	39.69%

*Missed posting yesterday but did pull sales for everything except Strays

 

Switching to previews only comps

 

Turtles (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Barbie (Thu) - .094x (1.99m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .525x (2.61m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .983x (2.85m)

 - Indiana Jones - .385x (2.77m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .296x (1.78m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .525x (2.18m)

 - Dune - .417x (2.13m)

 - Transformers (Thu) - .462x (3.37m)

 - M:I 7 (Tue) - .483x (3.09m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.94m

 

Turtles pace chart

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Barbie	66.10%	32.63%	38.64%	18.23%
Sonic 2	80.88%	28.94%	23.45%	30.60%
Haunted Mansion	78.52%	32.46%	19.79%	20.65%
Indiana Jones	52.39%	27.83%	9.39%	16.10%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Ghostbusters	74.47%	28.14%	18.02%	28.41%
Dune			21.41%	16.99%
Transformers 6	70.78%	25.67%		28.02%
M:I 7	58.27%	31.32%	20.00%	20.81%

 

I've been on the TMNT train for about a week now and I'm not hopping off now.  Pace has been very close to M:I 7, but pulled ahead today.  Having the first EA shows at T-3 messed with the pace a little, but we'll know tomorrow morning if this thing will take off or not. 

 

Turtles (EA) T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - 2.18x (2.77m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .562x (2.59m)

 - Barbie (EA) - 1.578x (1.74m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - 1.184x (1.42m)

 - Sing 2 (EA) - .879x

 - Puss in Boots (EA) - 1.44x

 

My growth rate model puts total EA at 2.5m, but that may be a little high with Saturday's shows being matinee.  There are a lot of PLF EA shows today though, so that would bring the ATP back up a bit.  Overall I'm thinking something like 6.5-7m for total previews, but it will need a big day today.

 

Meg 2 T-3 comps

 - Free Guy - .731x (1.61m)

 - Beast - 2.82x (2.61m)

 - Old - 2.23x (3.35m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.32x (1.91m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - .817x (2.04m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .933x (2.52m)

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 1.352x (1.49m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.96m

 

Feeling a little better about a 2m previews.  Pace this week will show what type of movie this will be.

Yeah I’ve noticed Meg has been on the uptick 

[M37]

2 hours ago, upriser7 said:

I understood why MI7 released on Wednesday but why is TMNT releasing mid-week on Wednesday with Tuesday premiers ? It's not like there is some holiday that day or anything

Schools start going back in August, so tend to get more of these Wed releases that month to grab as many summer weekdays as possible.  Also would have been a few extra days of non-IMAX PLF (before Turismo moved)

[ringedmortality]

So what's the chance Meg 2 gets to 20 for the weekend

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Fanboy said:

I've seen heaps of advertising for the Meg 2 so I'm a little baffled by the presales. It's certainly not something I'm interested in but lots of people love big shark/monster movies and the first one did so well that it should be opening to 50+. 

I think it's a combo of the first one generally being considered an only "alright/unmemorable" movie that didn't call for a sequel + the half-decade gap between movies (too long for a sequel whose predecessor left no impact in its wake). Action sequels that aren't immediately and directly tied to an established franchise (see: Clash/Wrath of the Titans) tend to underperform as well. But then this was just made for the international money given how well the first did there.

 

I saw an ad for it on ESPN last night that was literally just the opening 30 seconds of the trailer (the Meg eating the T-Rex). A sign of a dump if there ever was one.

Edited July 31, 2023 by filmlover

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Why is it expected? The reviews have been great.

 

7 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

T-4 into T-1 for every other movie (except MI7) happens during the week- Sunday into Wednesday. For TMNT, it’s happening from Friday into Monday, and that throws off pacing. People aren’t as likely to be buying tickets during the weekend when they’re doing other stuff. That’s why MI7 is still the most useful in my opinion (along with that damned Tuesday discount lol)

 

I was more referring to the Saturday sales from all of those sneaks throwing off the curves/comps than anything else, but this too.  Even against MI7 this would have thrown things off as it had a smaller might-as-well-call-it-sneaks on Sunday footprint versus TMNT's Saturday showings, which were rather high.  

 

Shifted the buying patterns around even more than MI7's case.

 

Plus there's the observation from @M37 about the GA walking up on TMNT Saturday Sneaks potentially messing with the expected comps.

 

Still, much like @katnisscinnaplex, I'm not off the train either. But I'm admittedly curious to see

 

1] Just how good the walkups are for the EA showings today.

 

and 

 

2]. Just how much demand is getting burned off with a ton of sneaks and EA showings.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-2: 59.28% Awareness

Blue Beetle T-18: 32.42% Awareness

Golda T-25: 12.5% Awareness

Gran Turismo T-25: 28.63% Awareness

The Iron Claw T-144: 13.86% Awareness

Migration T-144: 15.73% Awareness

Madame Web T-198: 20.23% Awareness

 

Meg 2: The Trench T-4: 51.62% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 89% chance of 20M, 68% chance of 30M, 42% chance of 40M, 32% chance of 50M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

The Equalizer 3 T-32: 43.86% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 30M, 73% chance of 40M, 53% chance of 50M

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-39: 30.78% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

[el sid]

The Last Voyage of the Demeter had on Saturday 38 sold tickets for Thursday, August 10 (12 days left).
Comps (all three films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = 9 days left for the Demeter): The Invitation had 96 sold tickets,
Barbarian 156
and Smile 213.
M3gan had with 17 days left 94 sold tickets
and Haunted Mansion had also with 12 days left 194 sold tickets.

And for Friday (13 days left) it had on Saturday 25 sold tickets.
Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday = again 9 days left): The Invitation had 87 sold tickets,
Barbarian 70
Smile 229

and Old 150.
M3gan had with 18 days left 73 sold tickets
and Haunted Mansion had also with 13 days left 150 sold tickets.

A bit muted so far but not totally bad.

Edited July 31, 2023 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

On 7/30/2023 at 12:42 PM, keysersoze123 said:

TMNT MTC1

Sneaks(7/29) - 21935/30596 220654.27 219 shows

Early shows(7/31) - 18922/31353 395449.78 168 shows

Previews(8/1) - 25036/527826 409496.76 3352 shows

TMNT MTC1

Early Shows(7/31) - 21040/31128 437046.60 167 shows

Previews(8/1) - 32578/529533 527313.08 3356 shows

Wednesday - 18899/669538 290417.91 4175 shows

 

This is as of this morning. Since its opening so early in the week, opening day Wednesday will be weak. 

[el sid]

The Meg 2 counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 72 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 24 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 15 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 39 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 92 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 254.

Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Fast X (7.5M from previews) had 1.542 sold tickets,
65 (1.225M) had 157 sold tickets

and Beast (925k) had 147 sold tickets

and Uncharted (3.7M) had 868 sold ticket.
Operation Fortune (220k) had on Wednesday of the release week 96 sold tickets for Thursday.

The Meg 2 counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 76 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 3 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 25 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 53 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 93 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 263.

Comps (all three films counted on Monday for Friday): Uncharted (44M OW) had 715 sold tickets,

65 (12.3M) had 142 sold tickets

and Beast (11.6M) had 111 sold tickets.
Operation Fortune (3.1M) had on Wednesday of the release week 98 sold tickets.

I would say with good jumps a decent weekend (over 20-25M) is still possible. But it needs really good jumps and walk-ups.
 

[Bob Train]

9 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Dumb fun might have been viable back in 2018, but it doesn't cut it for most people anymore. The shadow of Barbenheimer is also a big reason as to why this one will be lucky to reach the first film's opening number by the end of its run domestically. That being said, it only exists because of China and early presales point a very promising picture there.

Jurassic World 3 made a billion dollars, Illumination movies are still huge hits. Not true imo.

[CJohn]

You all should use Insidious 5 as a comp to Meg 2. Both are very reliable on walkups.