The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Phoenix22]

I'm from Mexico and awareness of the film is barely non-exist and there hasn't been a lot of promotion, without the cast being able to promote this (and mostly because there's a few mexican actors) the movie feels screwed, I checked some local theaters in mexico city where I live and there's less tickets sold than what Shazam 2 did and that was a low bar, the only hope is that the WOM is good and that there's not a lot of competition now since Barbenhimer was a month ago and Haunted Mansion flopped, Meg 2 did what it had to be done last week and this weekend well the Turtles weren't a big property here. 

 

If Shazam 2 opened to $65.6M WW I think that BB could be aiming to $48M - $55M OW WW, with hopes to at least match what Shazam 2 did and $150M as the ceiling. 

[El Gato]

Yeah then they should have just sent Blue Beetle to Max because with those numbers it’s not even worth it. 
 

Let’s just get through Aquaman so the nightmare for DC fans can finally be over. 

Edited August 14, 2023 by El Gato

[Boxofficerules]

2 hours ago, Eric the Turtle said:

 

 

Gran Turismo T-11: 38.94% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

 

Is there something I'm missing about Gran Turismo?

[Willowra]

Shazam and Flash box office, and now Blue Beetle low tracking proves that there are very few loyal DC fans; there are fans of Batman and Superman, and they call themselves DC fans, but they aren't actually DC fans but fans of these characters. So saying that the DC brand's image is tarnished and it's in bad shape is wrong because the DC brand never existed; only Batman, Superman, and 1 or 2 other DC character brands exist.

[Eric Prime]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is there something I'm missing about Gran Turismo?

I messed up. I’ll update when I’m off work

[Napoleon]

6 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

Being generous on both fronts (3x legs, 33/67 split) would give this a $227M to $273M worldwide total. So STILL a flop

That would actually be pretty good for Blue Beetle, it has a $120m budget. The high end of that projection would make it profitable theatrically, and even the low end would still make it lose a lot less money than The Flash, Shazam 2, The Suicide Squad, and probably Black Adam as well. 

[FunkMiller]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

Shazam and Flash box office, and now Blue Beetle low tracking proves that there are very few loyal DC fans; there are fans of Batman and Superman, and they call themselves DC fans, but they aren't actually DC fans but fans of these characters. So saying that the DC brand's image is tarnished and it's in bad shape is wrong because the DC brand never existed; only Batman, Superman, and 1 or 2 other DC character brands exist.

 

DCEU fans.

 

There are millions of us DC fans who have no interest - and never had any interest after BvS - in that trash universe. Blue Beetle was a DCEU film, no matter how much they try to distance it now.

 

Kinda sick of this 'DC fans have only got themselves to blame for the failure of DC movies'.

 

No. We just don't like the crap that Snyder created, and others continued. Joker and The Batman both successful.

Edited August 14, 2023 by FunkMiller

[vafrow]

On 8/13/2023 at 6:40 AM, vafrow said:

 

 

Blue Beetle, T-5, southern Ontario

 

Big jump today, which is a bit unexpected on a weekend. Total sales at 422, giving a 24% jump from yesterday.

 

No full region comps, and, worth noting that this sales number is now higher than anything I've counted. I'm tracking this via mental math as i go through full showtimes, so chance of errors are already high. I'm wondering if I made an error yesterday, which would be why yesterdays increase was low and today high. Just giving that cavest as Cineplex doesn't give the luxury of downloading data.

 

Local theatre (Milton) comps stay steady, as sales have stalled here the last few days, but was generally the same for the unadjusted comps.

 

0.500x Flash for $4.9M

0.800x T:ROTB for $7.0M

 

Adjusting those comps to align to the regional sales, gives a range of $2.3M to $3.4M.

 

 

 

 

Blue Beetle, T-4, southern Ontario

 

Good 17% jump today to take sales to 494.  Also saw sales move at the local level for the first time in a few days from 16 to 20. 

 

Unadjusted local comps

 

0.526x Flash for $5.1M

0.909x T:ROTB for $8.0M

 

Note, Flash actually had better growth through the final few days, where ROTB really found its mark in walkups. Therefore, you'll see the two comps spread rather converge.

 

Adjusting the local comps to align to regional sales brings it to a range of $2.3M to $3.6M.

 

Also little aside that whatever issues BB is having, it's doing miles better than Strays, debuting same day. Regional sales for the latter is 21 tickets sold in a region covering 8-10M people, so, things definitely could be worse for Blue Beetle.

Edited August 14, 2023 by vafrow

[Human]

21 minutes ago, FunkMiller said:

 

DCEU fans.

 

There are millions of us DC fans who have no interest - and never had any interest after BvS - in that trash universe. Blue Beetle was a DCEU film, no matter how much they try to distance it now.

 

Kinda sick of this 'DC fans have only got themselves to blame for the failure of DC movies'.

 

No. We just don't like the crap that Snyder created, and others continued. Joker and The Batman both successful.

Preach on

 

[Arlborn]

3 hours ago, Willowra said:

Shazam and Flash box office, and now Blue Beetle low tracking proves that there are very few loyal DC fans; there are fans of Batman and Superman, and they call themselves DC fans, but they aren't actually DC fans but fans of these characters. So saying that the DC brand's image is tarnished and it's in bad shape is wrong because the DC brand never existed; only Batman, Superman, and 1 or 2 other DC character brands exist.

This is such a weird and shallow take, it makes no sense. You're oversimplifying the whole thing just to make sure your take sounds right.

[Willowra]

5 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

This is such a weird and shallow take, it makes no sense. You're oversimplifying the whole thing just to make sure your take sounds right.

What I said is a fact. If DC kills Superman permanently and retires Bruce Wayne permanently, like Marvel did with Iron Man and Steve Rogers, how much do you think movies of new DC characters would make at the box office?

[Napoleon]

1 hour ago, FunkMiller said:

 

DCEU fans.

 

There are millions of us DC fans who have no interest - and never had any interest after BvS - in that trash universe. Blue Beetle was a DCEU film, no matter how much they try to distance it now.

 

Kinda sick of this 'DC fans have only got themselves to blame for the failure of DC movies'.

 

No. We just don't like the crap that Snyder created, and others continued. Joker and The Batman both successful.

The biggest DC movie of all time at the worldwide box office was Aquaman, which came out after BVS, so the theory that audiences would never give the DCEU another chance after that movie just doesn't hold up. And to balance things out, Aquaman also came out after Snyder left, so audiences were not mad at that either. At the end of the day, every DC fan should just accept the fact that general audiences just aren't as passionate about Snyder as they thing, one way or the other.

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

The biggest DC movie of all time at the worldwide box office was Aquaman, which came out after BVS, so the theory that audiences would never give the DCEU another chance after that movie just doesn't hold up. And to balance things out, Aquaman also came out after Snyder left, so audiences were not mad at that either. At the end of the day, every DC fan should just accept the fact that general audiences just aren't as passionate about Snyder as they thing, one way or the other.

Aquaman was not about big OW and so was not that much fan driven. it blew up big time due to visuals looking at China take.  It also released during holidays when GA tend to go for movies. WB should have kept Shazam 2 during holidays. Even without PLF it would have done better than what it did outside holidays. I hope they dont move Aquaman 2 for any reason. Moving it out of holidays would be a mistake. 

Edited August 14, 2023 by keysersoze123

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/12/2023 at 7:41 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-5	Jax	5	42	7	100	6,627	1.51%
		Phx	6	43	15	110	8,909	1.23%
		Ral	8	28	11	128	4,226	3.03%
	Total		19	113	33	338	19,762	1.71%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-6	Jax	4	4	2	2	821	0.24%
		Phx	4	4	0	2	544	0.37%
		Ral	2	2	0	4	155	2.58%
	Total		10	10	2	8	1,520	0.53%
	T-7	Jax	4	8	0	2	1,642	0.12%
		Phx	4	8	0	0	1,098	0.00%
		Ral	2	4	5	13	310	4.19%
	Total		10	20	5	15	3,050	0.49%
	T-8	Jax	4	4	0	0	821	0.00%
		Phx	4	4	0	1	544	0.18%
		Ral	2	2	0	0	155	0.00%
	Total		10	10	0	1	1,520	0.07%
Strays	T-5	Jax	6	16	2	25	1,948	1.28%
		Phx	6	23	0	25	3,053	0.82%
		Ral	6	18	2	24	2,703	0.89%
	Total		18	57	4	74	7,704	0.96%
Strays (EA)	T-4	Jax	3	3	0	5	352	1.42%
		Phx	3	3	0	2	403	0.50%
		Ral	4	4	2	19	506	3.75%
	Total		10	10	2	26	1,261	2.06%

 

Strays (Total) T-5 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.041x (1.02m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .667x (733k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .794x (595k)

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Violent Night - .971x (1.07m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .097x (545k)

 

Size adjusted average - 839k

 

Blue Beetle T-5 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Bullet Train - .876x (3.38m)

 - Turtles - .876x (3.37m)

 - Suicide Squad - .75x (2.93m)

 - Shazam 2 - .617x (2.1m)

 - Black Adam - .263x (2m)

 - Flash - .2x (1.94m)

 - Morbius - .378x (2.15m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.18m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-3	Jax	5	42	21	121	6,627	1.83%
		Phx	6	43	27	137	8,909	1.54%
		Ral	8	28	42	170	4,226	4.02%
	Total		19	113	90	428	19,762	2.17%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-4	Jax	4	4	5	7	821	0.85%
		Phx	4	4	0	2	544	0.37%
		Ral	2	2	12	16	155	10.32%
	Total		10	10	17	25	1,520	1.64%
	T-5	Jax	4	8	6	8	1,642	0.49%
		Phx	4	8	9	9	1,098	0.82%
		Ral	2	4	-4	9	310	2.90%
	Total		10	20	11	26	3,050	0.85%
	T-6	Jax	4	4	4	4	821	0.49%
		Phx	4	4	3	4	544	0.74%
		Ral	2	2	4	4	155	2.58%
	Total		10	10	11	12	1,520	0.79%
Strays	T-3	Jax	6	16	14	39	1,948	2.00%
		Phx	6	23	6	31	3,053	1.02%
		Ral	6	18	9	33	2,703	1.22%
	Total		18	57	29	103	7,704	1.34%
Strays (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	3	9	14	352	3.98%
		Phx	3	3	3	5	403	1.24%
		Ral	4	4	8	27	506	5.34%
	Total		10	10	20	46	1,261	3.65%

*All new sales since Saturday morning

 

Strays (Total) T-3 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.328x (1.16m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .768x (845k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .949x (712k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .613x (1.23m)

 - Violent Night - 1.307x (1.44m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .1x (558k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.02m

 

Blue Beetle T-3 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.76x (3.52m)

 - Bullet Train - .986x (3.3m)

 - Turtles - .797x (3.07m)

 - Suicide Squad - .694x (2.84m)

 - Shazam 2 - .667x (2.27m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Flash - .213x (2.07m)

 - Morbius - .382x (2.18m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.04m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle	40.33%	32.13%	30.92%
Cocaine Bear	49.08%	9.82%	11.56%
Bullet Train	36.05%	24.45%	22.82%	17.62%
Turtles	52.56%	25.57%	16.79%	15.48%
Suicide Squad	45.18%	25.65%	11.39%	20.27%
Shazam 2	23.94%	10.04%	8.37%	11.46%
Black Adam
Flash	25.48%	17.99%		10.51%
Morbius	33.77%	21.00%	16.47%	14.04%

 

Lower starting point makes the 3-day pace look pretty good.  Still looks like around 3m to me.

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

Just wanted to stop before this gets too far. The general DCEU dissertations are straying too off-topic and aren’t benefiting the Tracking Thread. Best to take this to the WB/Blue Beetle thread

[Austin]

5 hours ago, FunkMiller said:

 

DCEU fans.

 

There are millions of us DC fans who have no interest - and never had any interest after BvS - in that trash universe. Blue Beetle was a DCEU film, no matter how much they try to distance it now.

 

Kinda sick of this 'DC fans have only got themselves to blame for the failure of DC movies'.

 

No. We just don't like the crap that Snyder created, and others continued. Joker and The Batman both successful.

Im not a dc fan but i enjoyed BvS and ZSJL... 🥺

 

Edit: sorry, just saw the moderation post

Edited August 14, 2023 by Austin

[Ohana]

6 hours ago, FunkMiller said:

 

DCEU fans.

 

There are millions of us DC fans who have no interest - and never had any interest after BvS - in that trash universe. Blue Beetle was a DCEU film, no matter how much they try to distance it now.

 

Kinda sick of this 'DC fans have only got themselves to blame for the failure of DC movies'.

 

No. We just don't like the crap that Snyder created, and others continued. Joker and The Batman both successful.

Or: Snyder fans like me don't care about anything that isn't connected to the Snyderverse. 
Don't talk like you're representing DC fans as a whole. 

p.s. 
Saw the moderation post just now.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Ohana

[el sid]

To be honest, two weeks ago I had no idea what Blue Beetle is. So I expected presales over Shazam 2, maybe even 40M. And because of that I was surprised how low its presales are. The presales in my theaters also confirm the prediction of boxofficepro (20-27M OW).

Blue Beetle counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 245 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 70 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 5 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 74 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 90 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 507.

Comps (all films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Fast X (20.5M true Friday) had 1.542 sold tickets,
TSS (8M; day and date release) had 940,
The Batman (39.4M) had 4.894;
Morbius (11.6M) had 1.163
and Thor 4 (40.5M) had 5.214 sold tickets.
SC (20.8M) had on Tuesday for Friday 2.672 sold tickets.

As you can see, the presales for Friday in my theaters are at least at the moment (a bit) worrisome and at the lower end of the predictions.
 

[HummingLemon]

A $20M to $27M OW would be more than expectations but still pretty bad compared to the budget. Even 3x legs and a 33/67 split would give that a final worldwide range of $182M to $246M. And yes I do consider 3x to be the upper ceiling.

[filmlover]

Not on sale yet but showtimes are starting to appear for My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3, starts at 5 that Thursday.