The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	310	24786	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.909x) of Asteroid City

~$1M THUR Previews

 

(0.149x) of Haunted Mansion

~$464k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $732k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	324	24786	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.848x) of Asteroid City

~$933k THUR Previews

 

(0.137x) of Haunted Mansion

~$425k THUR Previews

 

(0.106x) of Boogeyman

~$1.17M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $632k

 

Terrible growth this close to T-0

[CJohn]

Strays is going to tank mega hard. Universal should have pushed it to February. 

[HummingLemon]

I'm waiting for @TheFlatLannister's Blue Beetle T-3 update

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	1067	28836	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.318x) of The Flash

~$3.09M THUR Previews 

 

(0.408x) of Indy 5

~$2.94M THUR Previews

 

(0.530x) of Fast X

~$3.97M THUR Previews

 

(0.487x) of RoTB 

~$4.28M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.57M previews 

 

Still falling against comps. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	1092	28836	3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.302x) of The Flash

~$2.93M THUR Previews 

 

(0.978x) of TMNT

~$3.76M THUR Previews

 

(0.495x) of Fast X

~$3.71M THUR Previews

 

(0.460x) of RoTB 

~$4.04M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.61M previews 

 

Pretty awful pace. This is collapsing in Orlando. Hopefully tomorrow there is some sign of life. 

 

Pace T-4 to T-3

TMNT 8.13% increase

Fast X 9.58% increase

Flash 7.69% increase

Blue Beetle 2.34% increase

 

[HummingLemon]

@TheFlatLannister

 

Do you have the T-3 comp for Shazam 2?

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@TheFlatLannister

 

Do you have the T-3 comp for Shazam 2?

I didn't do a full MTC tracking for Shazam

[filmlover]

35 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Strays is going to tank mega hard. Universal should have pushed it to February. 

It was already supposed to come out in June before being delayed at the 11th hour. Guessing it's just a dud of a movie. The search for the comedy (and not attached to popular material ala Barbie) that will bring people back to the multiplex in $100M+ numbers continues on.

Edited August 14, 2023 by filmlover

[ChipDerby]

39 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Strays is going to tank mega hard. Universal should have pushed it to February. 

 

That way people would ignore it tanking.

[misterpepp]

For those who haven't noticed, the Coraline Fathom event tonight is doing terrific. Lots of sold out screenings and theaters scrambling to add more showtimes. In LA, CityWalk is doing midnight shows! Fathom even announced an additional date because of how well it's doing so far. Except a (relatively) good number for it.

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/13/2023 at 5:19 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	56	45	236	10782	2.19

 

Pretty bad growth, an average of 15 tickets per day sold. Much has been said about the Latino potential for this movie, but in a metro with a very low % of the population being Latino, we might see the flip side of that. We'll see what late growth looks like these last few days.

 

Strays (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	42	9	37	4290	0.86
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	12	34	1499	2.27
TOTALS:	56	21	71	5789	1.23

 

Comps:

0.64x Joy Ride w/ EA: $705k

0.67x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.44 Million

 

It's not looking good, tickets for NHF were on sale much later so its growth rate will eclipse Strays, this needs a good review bump or it's DOA.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: (Numbers taken a couple of hours later than usual)

 

Blue Beetle (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	69	65	301	11967	2.52

 

Bit of a jolt.

 

Strays (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	47	13	50	4436	1.13
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	13	47	1499	3.14
TOTALS:	61	26	97	5935	1.63

 

Comps:

0.78x Joy Ride w/ EA: $853k

0.62x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.33 Million

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

With Equalizer tickets going on sale tomorrow, what are some good comps for it? The film seems to go towards an older crowd, would Mission:Impossible and Indiana Jones work? And would John Wick 4 be an appropriate R-rated comp? 

[TheFlatLannister]

39 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: (Numbers taken a couple of hours later than usual)

 

Blue Beetle (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	69	65	301	11967	2.52

 

Bit of a jolt.

 

Strays (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	47	13	50	4436	1.13
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	13	47	1499	3.14
TOTALS:	61	26	97	5935	1.63

 

Comps:

0.78x Joy Ride w/ EA: $853k

0.62x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.33 Million

You tracked TMNT right? Try adding that comp to BB and see what it gets

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It was already supposed to come out in June before being delayed at the 11th hour. Guessing it's just a dud of a movie. The search for the comedy (and not attached to popular material ala Barbie) that will bring people back to the multiplex in $100M+ numbers continues on.

 

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

 

That way people would ignore it tanking.

My idea obviously depends on reviews. If it is decent enough, I think it could have had a similar run to Cocaine Bear in February. They did nothing for it in its current date. The actors can't promote it. There are no viral stunts. Nothing.

 

No comedy will ever do 100M again. I am quite certain of it after No Hard Feelings only did 50M. The best we can hope for is something like Cocaine Bear.

[tonytr87]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

 

My idea obviously depends on reviews. If it is decent enough, I think it could have had a similar run to Cocaine Bear in February. They did nothing for it in its current date. The actors can't promote it. There are no viral stunts. Nothing.

 

No comedy will ever do 100M again. I am quite certain of it after No Hard Feelings only did 50M. The best we can hope for is something like Cocaine Bear.

 

That's just silly. No Hard Feelings wasn't that great

[Arlborn]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

No comedy will ever do 100M again. I am quite certain of it after No Hard Feelings only did 50M. The best we can hope for is something like Cocaine Bear.

 

It's quite telling how the biggest comedies of recent year have been reliant on big IPs such a Barbie and Deadpool.

 

 

But... Ebbs and flows, I guess? I'm sure something original will come along eventually.

[abracadabra1998]

48 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

You tracked TMNT right? Try adding that comp to BB and see what it gets

I sadly only tracked that until T-7 since I went on vacation afterwards. Don’t really have any good comps for younger male oriented action movie  mostly tracking it for future purposes and to compare growth rates with yours and Katniss numbers 

[HummingLemon]

What DOM/OS split is Blue Beetle gonna have? The current tracking looks like a $25M to $30M domestic OW. I don't see how this reaches $300M (the breakeven point) with an OW like that. It would need legs and a DOM/OS split as good as Joker (2019).

Edited August 15, 2023 by HummingLemon
addition to comment

[Dlund87]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon said:

What DOM/OS split is Blue Beetle gonna have? The current tracking looks like a $25M to $30M domestic OW. I don't see how this reaches $300M (the breakeven point) with an OW like that. It would need legs and a DOM/OS split as good as Joker (2019).

At this point your hoping reviews are stellar and WOM spreads big time. 

[ringedmortality]

HummingLemmon is a Reddit expat who made this account solely to look at Blue Beetle bombing. 

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

 

That's just silly. No Hard Feelings wasn't that great

Yeah I chuckled at that. No Hard Feelings was the epitome of a destined flop. The studio paying Lawrence a ridiculous amount for it had nothing to do with it being appealing, that’s part of why they were so stupid.

 

Some comedy will do well again obviously. We’re not even far removed from The Lost City which hit 100. And then obviously there’s Barbie, but I know that’s a bit different than the kind of comedy we’re talking about. 

Edited August 15, 2023 by MovieMan89