The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

The Equalizer tickets went on sale today (I think, yesterday it said "available soon", this was gone today) but when I clicked on the first showtime it said the website is not available 😬. That didn't change so far. Hopefully it's only temporarily.

[HummingLemon]

Are we still confident in the 6-7x internal multiplier for Blue Beetle?

[ChipDerby]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon said:

Are we still confident in the 6-7x internal multiplier for Blue Beetle?

 

$4-5 mil preview, with 8x multiplier, $40 mil OW let's go

[HummingLemon]

5 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

$4-5 mil preview, with 8x multiplier, $40 mil OW let's go

$4-5M previews is well above the current tracking

[ChipDerby]

15 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

$4-5M previews is well above the current tracking

 

Tracking ain't always right, baby!

[Flip]

22 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Are we still confident in the 6-7x internal multiplier for Blue Beetle?

Probably 8.5. Some schools are back in session, and it won’t have the fan rush + toxic WOM of the Flash which had 5.7x

[HummingLemon]

3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Tracking ain't always right, baby!

Yes, tracking isn't always right. That's why The Flash went from $75M+ to $55M

 

But (jokes aside) I could see it being like Black Adam where it gets major walk-ups

[JustLurking]

FWIW, looking at keyser's update, there's nothing in there that screams big IM let alone 8.5x. not only is friday nowhere near thu at T-3 it's still posting weaker updates and not catching up at all.

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Since you're also looking at Cineplex, I may as well share my methodology, as I've expanded recently.

 

When tracking my individual theatre, I've just gone directly into my theatre listings and find the showtimes that way.

 

But, recently, I've looked up the film directly, and it pulls up showtimes for a short radius. You can opt to show more, and I keep clicking that until it won't give me any more results. It maxes out at around 150Km or so. I then do a manual mental count. Blue Beetle is the biggest film I've done. I think if I did a Barbie, I'd start struggling with the math. As it is, if i try pulling it when I have any distractions around, I often have to restart.

 

As long as I'm pulling data from the same physical location, it should be giving me consistent data. But, if Cineplex changes the parameters, it'll throw my system off.

 

It's not the greatest method, since it's manual, and prone to error, but it's the only way I've found to reliably collect from a lot of theatres without being too time intensive. I do all this on my mobile, as the only computer I'm on regularly is for work, and don't want to explain why I'm constantly looking up movie times.

 

Sharing just in case this methodology is useful for anyone else, or if anyone has any suggestions to improve.

You do pretty much what I do-manual counts. I dont have programs to go and find all the stuff automatically. I used to do it on my phone till I got a puter, now I do it on computer. ANd yes when Cineplex changes parameters it totally throws things off. My phone is a cheapie and doesnt seem to want me to even get the app (prolly not enough memory lol). I used to do just SW Ontario, but then decided (ha!) to check some countrywide to get various takes.  

 

I think you're doing a fantastic job, and just do what you feel comforable with-what I love about the site is no judging here on how you collect data, or how much or little, every little bit counts

[HummingLemon]

19 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

FWIW, looking at keyser's update, there's nothing in there that screams big IM let alone 8.5x. not only is friday nowhere near thu at T-3 it's still posting weaker updates and not catching up at all.

So what IM is it going to have?

[keysersoze123]

31 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

FWIW, looking at keyser's update, there's nothing in there that screams big IM let alone 8.5x. not only is friday nowhere near thu at T-3 it's still posting weaker updates and not catching up at all.

Dont forget friday has another day of presales relative to previews and walkups are generally better on Friday as schools open. There is also greater expansion of Friday shows than previews at this point. That said I am not saying 8.5x is in play. Its a SH movie after all despite this being an unknown character with no fan base. I would say 6-7x for now with above average reception. 

[HummingLemon]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont forget friday has another day of presales relative to previews and walkups are generally better on Friday as schools open. There is also greater expansion of Friday shows than previews at this point. That said I am not saying 8.5x is in play. Its a SH movie after all despite this being an unknown character with no fan base. I would say 6-7x for now with above average reception. 

So what cinemascore would be "average" reception? A-? B+?

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: (Numbers taken a couple of hours later than usual)

 

Blue Beetle (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	69	65	301	11967	2.52

 

Bit of a jolt.

 

Strays (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	47	13	50	4436	1.13
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	13	47	1499	3.14
TOTALS:	61	26	97	5935	1.63

 

Comps:

0.78x Joy Ride w/ EA: $853k

0.62x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.33 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	98	58	359	16241	2.21

 

Quite a few expansions, with many theaters giving it an extra room (usually meaning 3 more shows). 19.3% daily growth rate at T-2 is very similar to other blockbusters I've tracked- 18.5% for Indiana Jones, 19.8% for Barbie; But it needs to be doing better than those since its starting point is much lower. Hoping for a better jump tomorrow with this sizable expansion.

 

Strays (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	53	2	52	5051	1.03
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	15	62	1499	4.14
TOTALS:	67	17	114	6550	1.74

 

That is not a typo, it sold a grand total of 2 tickets for Thursday... big bruh moment.

 

Comps:

0.67x Joy Ride w/ EA: $733k

0.46x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1 Million

Edited August 15, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/14/2023 at 6:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	1092	28836	3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.302x) of The Flash

~$2.93M THUR Previews 

 

(0.978x) of TMNT

~$3.76M THUR Previews

 

(0.495x) of Fast X

~$3.71M THUR Previews

 

(0.460x) of RoTB 

~$4.04M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.61M previews 

 

Pretty awful pace. This is collapsing in Orlando. Hopefully tomorrow there is some sign of life. 

 

Pace T-4 to T-3

TMNT 8.13% increase

Fast X 9.58% increase

Flash 7.69% increase

Blue Beetle 2.34% increase

 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
188	1224	33495	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

132

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.304x) of The Flash

~$2.94M THUR Previews 

 

(0.963x) of TMNT

~$3.71M THUR Previews

 

(0.491x) of Fast X

~$3.68M THUR Previews

 

(0.430x) of RoTB 

~$3.79M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.53M previews 

 

Finally a solid day. Looks like ~$3.5M previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/14/2023 at 6:08 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	324	24786	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.848x) of Asteroid City

~$933k THUR Previews

 

(0.137x) of Haunted Mansion

~$425k THUR Previews

 

(0.106x) of Boogeyman

~$1.17M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $632k

 

Terrible growth this close to T-0

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	366	25986	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

42

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.879x) of Asteroid City

~$968k THUR Previews

 

(1.119x) of Boogeyman

~$1.23M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.09M

 

I would guess $800k-$1M as of rn

Edited August 15, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	135	29254	0.46%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.135x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$947k THUR Previews

 

(0.104x) of Oppenheimer

~$1.09M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.02M

[HummingLemon]

@TheFlatLannister

 

So I know you said $3.5M previews for Blue Beetle, but is there a chance Orlando is over-indexing compared to the rest of the country? Because Orlando has a higher-than-average hispanic population

[TheFlatLannister]

18 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@TheFlatLannister

 

So I know you said $3.5M previews for Blue Beetle, but is there a chance Orlando is over-indexing compared to the rest of the country? Because Orlando has a higher-than-average hispanic population

definitely a chance its overindexing. Could be closer to $3m than $3.5m

Edited August 15, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Seto Kaiba]

In what is poised to be a case of Warner Bros beating itself for the No. 1 spot at the box office this coming weekend, the studio’s new DC superhero title, Blue Beetle, is poised to halt Barbie‘s three-weekend streak with a $28M-$32M opening. Barbie, meanwhile per industry sources, is looking at a $22M-$24M fourth weekend, -30%. Through Monday, the Greta Gerwig directed Mattel doll feature counts $531.2M.

 

Universal has the second new wide release this weekend, that being the R-rated potty talking doggies comedy, Strays looks to do in the teens. 

 

Universal’s fourth weekend of Oppenheimer looks to do $12M-$13M per industry sources. The pic through Monday did $266.9M. Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem in weekend three is eyeing $10M-$12M. 

 

https://deadline.com/2023/08/blue-beetle-barbie-strays-box-office-1235520300/

[HummingLemon]

$3.0M previews would put breakeven $300M worldwide completely off the table. I don't see how its worldwide total will reach 100x its previews.