The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Issac Newton]

 

Overall PS has exceeded $65M

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

it did slightly better than what I anticipated. I am going with ~3m previews.

 

why didn't you expect 4x previous day? should have done 55k i guess.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-37 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	135	11366	18333	6967	38.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

153

 

(BP2 COMP RETURNING TOMORROW — PROBABLY)

 

Regal:     2087/6150  [33.93% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

24.72% of No Way Home's final total      [12.36m]

32.99% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [11.88m]

41.47% of Black Panther 2's final total.   [11.61m]

77.53% of Avatar 2's final total                [13.18m]

150.77% of Oppenheimer's final total     [15.83m]

57.69% of Barbie's final total                   [12.86m]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-36 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	138	11512	18606	7094	38.13%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	273
Total Seats Sold Today	127

 

T-36 Comps:

%

Sold T-36

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

BP2

176.60

294

4017

0/292

32534/36551

10.99%

16800

42.23%

49.45m

71.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2120/6150  [34.47% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

25.17% of No Way Home's final total      [12.59m]

33.59% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [12.09m]

41.82% of Thor 4's final total.                  [12.13m]

78.95% of Avatar 2's final total                [13.42m]

153.52% of Oppenheimer's final total     [16.12m]

58.74% of Barbie's final total                   [13.10m]

 

====

 

So after taking the discussion into account, especially the points from @keysersoze123, decided to go with a flat 45% ATP increase for now. Rather be a little (or even more than a little) conservative than not, especially at this stage.

 

Even so... even so, kinda pops out atcha, doesn't it?  Well, most of it is in fact explained by # of tickets and ATP.  But it really does need to be pointed out that TET has a five day head start on BP2, and that absolutely matters right now, especially with ATP adjustment putting such a heavy thumb on the scale.

 

Still, we'll see where it goes in the next few days and how much the adj comp drops.

 

(not messing with Final Total comps at the mo, so those are still unadjusted.  Still chewing it over how I want to deal with that, especially given the divergent nature of the films in question)

[Hilts]

5 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Gotcha, thanks! Off that number, 1.76x means $1.45 Million at T-1, which does look better for BFGW3. We shall see.

 

This reminds me of something @M37 had mentioned, do we know what the gross for the blow-out Wednesday EA was?

 

Yep it was confirmed $1.1m

 

Box Office: ‘Barbie’ Eyes $155M Opening, ‘Oppenheimer’ $80M Start – Deadline

 

Quote

Barbie’s cash includes the $1.1M from Wednesday previews at 500 locations. Even if you take those out, Thursday’s $21.2M are still the best of 2023.

 

[vafrow]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Tempted to put in the "First Time" meme here, but I can't actually recall if you've tracked a long(-ish) movie before.

 

This is a film that had a massive fan rush plus it's over five weeks away.  It's gonna be in the bottom of the "U" curve/be in the marathon stage of sales for a while.  Subject to random spikes due to various promotions, naturally.

 

To put it a different way, this is completely normal, IMO. Plus, as @TheFlatLannister implied, at the base it's at even a 1% growth is pretty damn good since it's already so big.

 

Like, TET "only" grew around 2% locally, but IMO again, that's really really good!

 

This is definitely a first for me tracking at this scale. I tracked the other big summer movies, but on an individual theatre level. I only started tracking region wide for Blue Beetle I think, and even then, I only started at T-16.

 

1% over two days feels particularly slow though, but, it makes sense. Fans either rush out and buy, or wait closer to. It's just disheartening to go through the efforts of a large scale pull and see little the same numbers come up. It's more fun capturing dirijf the high growth phases.

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Killers of the Flower Moon T-43: 25.34% Awareness

Five Nights at Freddy's T-50: 36.93% Awareness

The Holdovers T-64: 14.17% Awareness

Thanksgiving T-71: 10.68% Awareness

Napoleon T-76: 23.01% Awareness

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-183: 40.99% Awareness

Deadpool 3 T-239: 55.91% Awareness

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-1: 47.32% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

 

The Nun II T-1: 54.77% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 90% chance of 20M, 70% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M, 30% chance of 50M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

A Haunting in Venice T-8: 31.19% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:46 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Equalizer 3	3,204	92,796		76,137		16,659	4,999	0
Barbie	2,863	38,805	-18.64%	38,250	316.70	555	0	0
Gran Turismo	2,942	34,674	-37.50%	34,030	260.66	644	47	0
Blue Beetle	2,658	32,545	-29.60%	32,104	262.99	441	11	0
Ninja Turtles	2,376	28,271	-15.59%	27,110	217.65	1,161	0	1,133
Strays	2,049	21,358	-43.44%	21,343	130.55	15	0	0
Oppenheimer	2,028	19,964	-21.87%	19,750	321.71	214	163	0
Meg 2: The Trench	1,810	17,452	-28.10%	16,468	197.86	984	0	970
Retribution	1,541	17,247	-29.25%	17,238	131.04	9	0	0
The Hill	1,461	13,405	-25.83%	13,405	112.78	0	0	0
Bottoms	629	11,170		11,149		21	0	0
Elemental	1,744	10,409		10,303		106	0	17
Talk to Me	872	7,189	-20.48%	7,189	231.03	0	0	0
Haunted Mansion	924	7,124	-33.93%	7,076	184.21	48	0	0
Golda	639	6,847	-35.77%	6,847	135.46	0	0	0
Sound of Freedom	833	5,904	-37.01%	5,898	165.55	6	0	0
The Good Mother	375	5,759		5,759		0	0	0
Mission: Impossible	732	4,637	-43.73%	4,616	249.88	21	0	0
Jurassic Park	620	3,664	-54.55%	0	173.93	3,664	0	3,661

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Equalizer 2 - 92,796 (3,204 TC) (14,095 previews)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334) (9,677)

 - Bullet Train - 94,719 (3,499) (14,147)

 - Creed III - 92,873 (3,366) (8,805)

 - Halloween Kills - 92,661 (3,143) (9,077)

 

Bottoms - 11,170 (629 TC)

 - French Dispatch (11,895) (750)

 

The Good Mother - 5,759 (375 TC)

 - Eyes of Tammy Faye - 5,545 (394)

 - The Gray Man - 6,113 (410)

 - For the Love of Money - 5,585 (494)

 - Blue Bayou - 5,439 (444)

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

The Nun II - 46,904 (2,055 TC) (7,967 previews)

 - Scream VI - 47,509 (2,548) (8,081)

 - Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393) (8,100)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518) (5,790)

 

Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 27,248 (1,997 TC) (3,928 previews)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321) (4,519)

 - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950) (4,311)

 - Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950) (5,188)

 - I Wanna Dance - 28,953 (2,345) (6,409)

 - No Hard Feelings - 27,994 (1,836) (5,070)

 

Jawan - 8,375 (541 TC) (2,037 Thu)*

 - Brahmastra Part 1 - 7,708 (516)

 

*This is a Thursday release, but I included those shows since there are no previews

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Haunting in Venice (9/13 EA) - 97

Haunting in Venice - 1,587 (622 TC)

 - Amazing Maurice - 1,770 (618)

 - West Side Story - 1,507 (613)

 - Massive Talent - 1,490 (831)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtime Comps

The Blind - 2,476 (1,390 TC)

 - Easter Sunday - 2,853 (1,085)

 

T-6 Weeks

Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Fri) - 3,947 (621 TC)*

 - Oppenheimer (Thu) - 5,419 (1,954)

 - Nope (Thu) - 4,794 (1,157)

Taylor Swift Eras Tour (F-Su) - 20,722 (621 TC)*

 

*My source does not have MTC1 shows listed and are thus not included in the counts.  You can find the totals in this thread though.

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Nun II	3,087	87,853		71,780		16,073	4,020	0
Greek Wedding 3	3,049	52,002		51,923		79	0	0
The Equalizer 3	3,103	50,363	-36.01%	48,924	372.91	1,439	8	0
Barbie	2,768	34,278	-11.67%	34,146	263.24	132	0	0
Blue Beetle	2,373	26,918	-17.29%	26,842	218.61	76	0	0
Ninja Turtle	2,120	22,548	-20.24%	21,419	165.04	1,129	0	1,084
Gran Turismo	2,119	22,373	-35.48%	22,278	190.65	95	0	0
Oppenheimer	1,762	17,013	-14.78%	16,732	288.38	281	251	0
Bottoms	1,181	16,477	74.42%	16,448	272.84	29	0	0
Meg 2: The Trench	1,240	10,881	-37.65%	10,153	162.16	728	0	723
Strays	1,307	9,632	-54.90%	9,627	119.77	5	0	0
Jawan	698	9,229		8,483		746	497	0
The Hill	1,004	7,962	-40.60%	7,960	110.36	2	0	0
Aristotle and Dante Discover the Secrets of the Universe	509	6,145		6,145		0	0	0
Talk to Me	730	6,023	-16.22%	6,023	245.33	0	0	0
Haunted Mansion	639	5,228	-26.61%	5,199	192.91	29	0	0
Sound of Freedom	501	3,603	-38.97%	3,600	158.20	3	0	0
Mission: Impossible	432	2,984	-35.65%	2,966	271.63	18	0	0
Elemental	584	2,939	-71.76%	2,921	120.70	18	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

The Nun II - 87,853 (3,087 TC) (12,430 previews)

 - Scream - 85,504 (3,326) (7,869)

 - Scream VI - 88,867 (3,190) (11,941)

 - Halloween Kills - 92,661 (3,143) (9,077)

 

Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 52,002 (3,049 TC) (5,871 previews)

 - Strays - 52,103 (2,849) (7,230)

 - No Hard Feelings - 55,242 (2,698) (7,970)

 - 80 for Brady - 55,322 (3,330) (7,882)

 - I Wanna Dance - 49,709 (3,156) (8,569)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846) (7,308)

 - Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172) (6,057)

 - West Side Story - 54,697 (2,479) (2,479)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762 (2,985) (5,131)

 

Seems to be a definitive range for this type of movie...

 

Jawan - 9,229 (698 TC)

 - BTS - 8,873 (1,041)

 - Crimes of the Future - 9,129 (629)

 - Consecration - 9,650 (738)

 

Aristotle and Dante - 6,145 (509 TC)

 - First Slam Dunk - 6,041 (539)

 - Gray Man - 6,113 (410)

 - Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 - Titane - 6,186 (521)

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Haunting in Venice (9/13 EA) - 104

Haunting in Venice - 37,383 (2,067 TC) (4,876 previews)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634) (6,823)

 - Elvis - 38,236 (2,726) (6,267)

 - Meg 2 - 38,093 (1,911) (7,486)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

It Lives Inside - 1,660 (953 TC)

 - Haunting in Venice - 1,587 (622)

 - X - 1,829 (1,297)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

The Creator (9/27 EA) - 249 (236 TC)

The Creator - 3,606 (1,476 TC)

 - M3GAN - 3,703 (1,646)

 - Uncharted - 3,304 (813)

 - Strays - 3,870 (1,394)

 

The Blind - 2,539 (1,426 TC)

 - Jesus Revolution - 2,444 (1,544)

 - Marry Me - 2,115 (1,068)

 

Paw Patrol 2 (OD) - 6,684 (1,653 TC)

 - Puss in Boots (OD) - 9,582 (2,055)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtime Comps

The Exorcist 7 - 6,296 (1,761 TC)

 - Haunted Mansion - 6,498 (1,763)

 - Scream VI - 5,778 (1,862)

 

T-5 Weeks

Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Fri) - 15,745 (2,795 TC)

 - JWD (Previews) - 18,526 (2,512)

Taylor Swift Eras Tour (F-Su) - 78,079 (2,797 TC)

[Shawn Robbins]

Nun 3.1

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

The Nun II

(0.800x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$4.00M THUR Previews

(1.885x) of Talk to me ~$2.35M THUR Previews

(2.588x) of Boogeyman ~$2.85M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $3.07M

34 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Nun 3.1

Edited September 8, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunting Venice	T-6	Jax	6	22	33	33	4,862	0.68%
		Phx	5	14	28	28	3,168	0.88%
		Ral	7	19	38	38	2,528	1.50%
	Total		18	55	99	99	10,558	0.94%
Haunting Venice (EA)	T-5	Jax	1	1	6	6	205	2.93%

 

Haunting T-6 comps

 - Elvis - .273x (873k)

 - Glass Onion - .213x (426k)

 - Creed III - .301x (1.34m)

 - Death on the Nile - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - .773x (1.12m)

 - Beast - 2.02x (1.87m)

 - 65 - 1.435x (1.76m)

 - Crawdads - .372x (744k)

 

Average adjusted comps - 1.4m

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Creator	T-20	Jax	5	24	17	17	3,145	0.54%
		Phx	5	10	7	7	1,510	0.46%
		Ral	6	12	16	16	1,778	0.90%
	Total		16	46	40	40	6,433	0.62%
Creator (EA)	T-19	Jax	2	3	0	0	689	0.00%
Paw Patrol 2 (OD)	T-21	Jax	5	21	6	6	2,356	0.25%
		Phx	5	15	1	1	2,756	0.04%
		Ral	6	26	12	12	3,808	0.32%
	Total		16	62	19	19	8,920	0.21%

 

The Creator T-20 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - .784x (1.14m)

 - Black Phone - .769x (2m)

 - Dungeons and Dragons - .69x (2.83m)

 

Paw Patrol 2 (OD) T-21 comps

 - Minions 2 (Previews) - .157x (1.69m)

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

why didn't you expect 4x previous day? should have done 55k i guess.

Sequel and some of my recent comps did worse.

 

Anyway Nun 2 Friday MTC1 PS final - 52546/741747 942624.40 4031 shows

 

Somewhere in 8-9m Friday minus previews. Its looking like high 20s low 30s OW.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/7/2023 at 10:00 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Exorcist 6	T-29	Jax	5	34	9	12	6,046	0.20%
		Phx	5	22	4	13	5,357	0.24%
		Ral	6	24	3	6	3,646	0.16%
	Total		16	80	16	31	15,049	0.34%

 

Exorcist T-29 comps

 - Nope - .181x (1.16m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .969x (1.4m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Exorcist 6	T-28	Jax	5	34	6	18	6,046	0.30%
		Phx	6	24	10	23	5,465	0.42%
		Ral	7	27	0	6	4,153	0.14%
	Total		18	85	16	47	15,664	0.30%

 

Exorcist T-28 comps

 - Nope - .27x (1.73m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.42x (2.07m)

 - Scream VI - .217x (1.23m)

 

*Yesterday was overreported due to error.  It has been corrected.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/7/2023 at 10:01 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-36	Jax	6	66	38	4,075	10,609	38.41%
		Phx	6	74	73	7,478	12,124	61.68%
		Ral	8	75	14	4,731	9,512	49.74%
	Total		20	215	125	16,284	32,245	50.50%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .47x (23.48m)

 - Dr Strange - .706x (25.41m)

 - BP2 - .921x (25.79m)

 - Thor 4 - .995x (28.84m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.691x (29.59m)

 - Barbie - 1.427x (30.25m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-35	Jax	6	67	49	4,124	10,651	38.72%
		Phx	6	74	45	7,523	12,124	62.05%
		Ral	8	75	55	4,786	9,512	50.32%
	Total		20	216	149	16,433	32,287	50.90%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .474x (23.69m)

 - Dr Strange - .712x (25.64m)

 - BP2 - .929x (26.02m)

 - Thor 4 - 1x (29.11m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.706x (29.86m)

 - Barbie - 1.44x (30.53m)

[DAJK]

Nun is selling far, far better today than yesterday (which makes sense... it's a horror movie on a Friday during the school year). I wouldn't be surprised with 9-10M true Friday tbh. 

[jeffthehat]

On 9/7/2023 at 11:05 AM, jeffthehat said:

Counted as much of the theater chain as I could today. My script went kaput about halfway through after working well yesterday ... not sure if it's a problem with Fandango or my code. Won't be able to do this often unless I figure this out, sadly. 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-37 @ 3pm

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 4529

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 25.9%

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-36 @ 11am

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 4668

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 26.69

New sales - 139 (+3%)

 

Still great growth here at this stage. 

 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-35

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 4790

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 27.39

New sales - 122 (+2.6%)

 

Not slowing down here yet. Like @TheFlatLannister I'm seeing some sales declines at several theaters though, weird. 

[keysersoze123]

On 9/7/2023 at 6:56 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 37) - 493463/757708 10430340.07 4470 shows

 

Should cross 500K tickets by Friday 🙂

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 36) - 494076/760680 10444270.64 4482 shows

 

Someething really weird that friday presales fell off the cliff. I ran again this morning and its at 494344. It does not even have refunds. I looked at Day 2 and it seems more in line. May be all good seats in prime time shows are near sellouts and it needs new shows to grow going forward or its an anomaly for a day. We will know today.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1 Sat - 400655/1564544 8642785.95 9023 shows

 

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Tinalera]

So the Taylor Swift-is this a one night concert thing, or is this lilke Madonnas Truth or Dare (yep that aged me lol) where its a docu type of thing? Or somewhere in between?

 

From what Im reading seems to legitimately be a one night concert-this would be a one night as opposed to a regular theatre run? Or are they doing the concert then the movie would effectively be a "re-run"?

Edited September 8, 2023 by Tinalera

[Porthos]

40 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 35) - 494076/760680 10444270.64 4482 shows

 

Someething really weird that friday presales fell off the cliff. I ran again this morning and its at 494344. It does not even have refunds. I looked at Day 2 and it seems more in line. May be all good seats in prime time shows are near sellouts and it needs new shows to grow going forward or its an anomaly for a day. We will know today.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1 Sat - 400655/1564544 8642785.95 9023 shows

 

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

If I must:

 

 

[Tinalera]

56 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 35) - 494076/760680 10444270.64 4482 shows

 

Someething really weird that friday presales fell off the cliff. I ran again this morning and its at 494344. It does not even have refunds. I looked at Day 2 and it seems more in line. May be all good seats in prime time shows are near sellouts and it needs new shows to grow going forward or its an anomaly for a day. We will know today.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1 Sat - 400655/1564544 8642785.95 9023 shows

 

 

Now thats an interesting thought-would "new shows" expanding into a weekend like a movie, if that actually got people into the theatres to see a "replay" of a concert-could be a very interesting move for future big artists to try same.

 

EDIT Nevermind that actually ARE doing it like a feature film with multiple days (at least showing on Cineplex site)....like this could be huge and a way for theatres to fill gaps with the writers strike going on....fascinating.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Tinalera