The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It has not filled up for XD shows, as that is one of the DBOX locations.

 

Just for the XD showings:

4:10 (3D)    6/242

7:00 (2D) 53/242

9:50 (2D)   4/242

---

4:10 (3DBOX)  5/21

7:00 (DBOX)  10/21

9:50 (DBOX)    7/21

 

For 85 of the tickets sold in the region.

 

NB:  Century Arden "fills up" first in the region as it's the local powerhouse.

 

Literally about to run out the door, so no more time for commentary for a couple of hours.

 

Now I get it. They have listed the same show twice. One for dbox and one for regular tickets. Looking at dbox it looked like it almost sold out. 

 

https://tickets.fandango.com/mobileexpress/seatselection?row_count=425613724&mid=230944&chainCode=CNMK&sdate=2023-11-09+16%3A10&tid=aaxzv&route=map-seat-map

[titanic2187]

Let's bring in Napoleon to command the cinema this November then! 

 

It is good to see FNAF is doing great but I think people should stay caution because of it is still a day-to-date release after all. Eras cool down so so much, way worse than I thought, is the reason why it is hard to stay upbeat nowadays.  

[Arlborn]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Got done setting up my sheets finally. 

 

...

 

DBOX IS THE FUCKING BANE OF MY EXISTENCE!!! 

 

Anyway, seeing what other are seeing when it comes to slow initial sales:

 

The Marvels 12:45pm:    362/27260  [1.33% sold] 183 showtimes

----

GOTG3 12:40pm:           1317/29568 [4.45% sold] 205 showtimes

 

I don't have easy access to either The Flash or Eternals initial setting up sheet numbers, so don't ask (spent the last 20 minutes looking).  Can in fact say that Eternals finished Day 1 at 874 tickets sold.  The Flash meanwhile clocked in at 640 tickets sold.

 

Have to see where it goes from here, but the numbers speak for themselves.

 

This is certainly a new reality for the MCU, bit uncharted territory feels. I wonder if they'll start being less and less front-loaded as the trend seems to indicate, or if it is just about these particular films.

 

I'm very curious to see what kind of bump early reactions and reviews will give this, considering GOG3's scenario.

 

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Let's bring in Napoleon to command the cinema this November then! 

 

It is good to see FNAF is doing great but I think people should stay caution because of it is still a day-to-date release after all. Eras cool down so so much, way worse than I thought, is the reason why it is hard to stay upbeat nowadays.  

 

A Swiftie friend of mine has said she has posted something about the movie today, let's see if that has any effect, but yes, Eras is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment considering the expectations we had of it. Pity, let's hope FNAF doesn't fall off a cliff either.

[Grand Cine]

@Porthos I found your tracking of The Flash for Day One Mid Day, you don't have one for Eternals 

 

The Flash was at 1:30 pm with 394 tickets sold , 394/22300

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Flash had some hype. So the audience who were waiting for the movie did buy in during OD. It sold slightly more than Eternals if you include early show. After the OD presales, its presales were beyond awful. That is why OW expectations kept going down dramatically. 

 

I would rather compare this with Guardians whose start looked disappointing and in retrospect was not that bad :-) Other comp is Eternals. 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Flash had some hype. So the audience who were waiting for the movie did buy in during OD. It sold slightly more than Eternals if you include early show. After the OD presales, its presales were beyond awful. That is why OW expectations kept going down dramatically. 

 

I would rather compare this with Guardians whose start looked disappointing and in retrospect was not that bad 🙂 Other comp is Eternals. 

Guardians was initially tracking for a $100-120M opening weekend, which is exactly what ended up happening. It had disappointing presales, so it had a disappointing opening weekend. The Marvels is selling LESS than GOTG 3.  

[HummingLemon496]

@TheFlatLannister You were right. $40m is actually a possibility. 

[babz06]

I don’t think pre-sales will accelerate until reviews.  Audiences are clearly getting pickier about comic book films.

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, babz06 said:

I don’t think pre-sales will accelerate until reviews.  Audiences are clearly getting pickier about comic book films.

Yes this is true. But there's only so much it can do when it's tracking for like $50m initially.

[Grand Cine]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Flash had some hype. So the audience who were waiting for the movie did buy in during OD. It sold slightly more than Eternals if you include early show. After the OD presales, its presales were beyond awful. That is why OW expectations kept going down dramatically. 

 

I would rather compare this with Guardians whose start looked disappointing and in retrospect was not that bad 🙂 Other comp is Eternals. 

I think The comparison with Guardians 3 is good until the last days because he take advantage of the really good reviews and i don't think The Marvels will have the same chance . I think Eternal is definitely the best comp ( around the same OD of presales , and final days not really good due to bad reviews) .

 

PS : I post the mid day of The Flash for @Porthos because he didn't found it . It's just the result,  you do what you want with it

[Porthos]

34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would rather compare this with Guardians whose start looked disappointing and in retrospect was not that bad 🙂 Other comp is Eternals. 

 

These are likely going to be my only two comps.  Does mean I need to break out the ATP adj for Eternals, but c'est la vie.

 

(I might add The Flash under protest, but DC underperforms locally compared to MCU so I'm really hesitant to do that — might monitor relative sales though)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Yeah, it’d probably be better to avoid DC films as comps for Marvel. MAYBE Flash later down the line but that’s for y’all to decide. Can’t think of any good comps outside of MCU films though. 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Yeah, it’d probably be better to avoid DC films as comps for Marvel. MAYBE Flash later down the line but that’s for y’all to decide. Can’t think of any good comps outside of MCU films though. 

 

The thing is, I don't like only having one comp (GOTG3 in this case) as that leaves too much room for error/randomness.  Hell even two is problematic, especially when ATP is gonna play such a large role (Eternals).

 

But, as I implied in my last post: Needs must, when the devil drives.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

These are likely going to be my only two comps.  Does mean I need to break out the ATP adj for Eternals, but c'est la vie.

 

(I might add The Flash under protest, but DC underperforms locally compared to MCU so I'm really hesitant to do that — might monitor relative sales though)

the way things are going, you should add Freddy's as well  It almost looks like that movie is breaking out and wont be way outside the range of Marvels OW. 

[Giorno]

How about a comp to Barbie as a comp to The Marvels?

[Relevation]

15 minutes ago, Giorno said:

How about a comp to Barbie as a comp to The Marvels?

That comp would have beyond terrible pace against Marvels since Barbie was relatively backloaded with sales (I:e it went from very good start to $162M OW) 

[Relevation]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

the way things are going, you should add Freddy's as well  It almost looks like that movie is breaking out and wont be way outside the range of Marvels OW. 

Yeah Freddy’s won’t be super far removed from The Marvels’ debut

 

Spoiler

It’ll only be $40-50M or so ahead 😉

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/9/2023 at 3:53 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2143

2657

80.65%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2155

2741

78.62%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11077	168	22056	50.22%	13	146

 

1.658	Thor L&T T-4	48.07M
1.109	Doctor Strange MoM T-4	39.91M
0.707	No Way Home T-4	35.33M

 

Highlands Ranch suddenly has 11 more sellouts, which I don't think is actually the case. They were all pretty close to selling out, but it would be a relatively huge jump if it actually happened. The previous 3 days, Highlands had sold 6 tickets, but now it apparently sold 84 in one day. I'm just gonna leave it, but don't be surprised if it drops tomorrow

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2155

2657

81.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2162

2741

78.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11138	61	22953	48.53%	13	158

 

2.067	Barbie T-3	46.09M
1.545	Thor L&T T-3	44.79M
1.030	Doctor Strange MoM T-3	37.09M
0.680	No Way Home T-3	34.02M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/9/2023 at 3:55 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-4 Friday

129 Showings

11397

+127

18729

ATP:

22.29

0.673	Thor L&T Thurs T-4	19.53M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-4	29.04M
0.520	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-4	18.72M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-4	27.75M
0.408	NWH Thurs T-4	20.42M

 

T-5 Saturday

240 Showings

15447

+160

33356

ATP:

22.03

1.072	Thor L&T Fri T-5	43.46M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-5	65.05M
0.754	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-5	41.24M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-5	62.01M
0.589	NWH Fri T-5	42.38M

 

T-6 Sunday

213 Showings

12573

+148

29416

ATP:

21.93

0.915	Thor L&T Sat T-6	38.55M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-6	59.04M
0.575	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-6	33.23M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-6	51.36M
0.471	NWH Sat T-6	34.80M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-3 Friday

174 Showings

11756

+359

23063

ATP:

22.19

0.659	Thor L&T Thurs T-3	19.12M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-3	28.29M
0.507	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-3	18.25M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-3	26.93M
0.412	NWH Thurs T-3	20.58M

 

T-4 Saturday

344 Showings

15672

+225

45717

ATP:

22.01

0.999	Thor L&T Fri T-4	40.52M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-4	60.60M
0.708	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-4	38.74M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-4	58.21M
0.576	NWH Fri T-4	41.46M

 

T-5 Sunday

313 Showings

12809

+236

41753

ATP:

21.93

0.878	Thor L&T Sat T-5	36.96M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-5	56.60M
0.544	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-5	31.46M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-5	48.61M
0.458	NWH Sat T-5	33.84M

[keysersoze123]

Voldy is also down on it.