The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Any chance that, um, "World Events" will hurt the legs for KotFM?

 

The current situation in Israel and Gaza will have practically no effect on the run of any US Domestic box office film.  At least none that is measurable.

 

IMO, effects can manifest in two ways: 

 

1] There is so much attention drawn to it that it people watch coverage of an event to the exclusion of other unrelated matters.  "People stay home and watch TV" as it were (or scroll smartphones, whatever).

 

2] The subject matter is similar enough to invite controversy on its own and cause Discourse To Happen.

 

The latter isn't in play here for KOTFM beyond the thinest of thin connections regarding discussions surrounding colonialism. 

 

The former very very very likely isn't in play, either.  Or if it is, it's gonna be effecting just about everything else.

 

So, to be blunt:  No.  No chance whatsoever.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The current situation in Israel and Gaza will have practically no effect on the run of any US Domestic box office film.  At least none that is measurable.

 

IMO, effects can manifest in two ways: 

 

1] There is so much attention drawn to it that it people watch coverage of an event to the exclusion of other unrelated matters.  "People stay home and watch TV" as it were (or scroll smartphones, whatever).

 

2] The subject matter is similar enough to invite controversy on its own and cause Discourse To Happen.

 

The latter isn't in play here for KOTFM beyond the thinest of thin connections regarding discussions surrounding colonialism. 

 

The former very very very likely isn't in play, either.  Or if it is, it's gonna be effecting just about everything else.

 

So, to be blunt:  No.  No chance whatsoever.

I agree with you completely. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Any chance that, um, "World Events" will hurt the legs for KotFM?

Oh you're speaking of the middle east conflict...I thought there was a movie coming out called "World events"

 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Giorno]

If any movie were to get impacted by the israel palestine situation it might be the marvels, which is highly unlikely 

[Mojoguy]

Bad news pushes more people to go see movies in theaters actually helping them, if only to escape real life events.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think I need figure out this annoying stuff of same screen listed twice for dbox and otherwise. Then we wont have this anamoly. will look at this weekend for sure. 

No not dbox just that MTC 2 has some pre blocked seats. On avg 0.7 per show I deduct.

[Eric is Quiet]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What does the Marvels have in common with the Israel Palestine situation? That they're both bad?

There's been this really weird, really racist connotation from a few select users here that because one of the actors in The Marvels is Muslim, that it will cause the film to bomb.

 

I really, really, really, really, really, really don't like how this is popping up as a recurring issue. And I really, really, really, really, really hope nobody here ever brings up something that stupid and idiotic here ever again.

 

Hint hint hint hint hint. T_T

[filmlover]

The current happenings in the world won't be at all the reason why The Marvels, Flower Moon, Hunger Games, Wish, Trolls, any movie you name underperforms if they do. Move along folks, nothing to see here.

[Porthos]

Hard to do a direct compare, since Wish was on sale for a couple of days prior to today.  But if we consider today to be the first "real" day of pre-sales, then....

 

Wish did pretty decently all things considered, locally.

 

As of a little while ago, Wish was at 39 tickets sold ih the Greater Sacto Area.

 

As a compare/contrast Elemental sold 37 tickets on its first day here.

 

So about the same, but given it's an even longer pre-sale window, maybe a tiny bit better.  Should mean a preview of at least in the range of Elemental, if one thinks a sample size of 1 means anything (and I don't).

 

(needless to say, not even a Q&D look, if that, for a long time)

 

Other reports in about an hour or so from now.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Porthos

[boxoff53]

5 hours ago, Eric Mouse said:

There's been this really weird, really racist connotation from a few select users here that because one of the actors in The Marvels is Muslim, that it will cause the film to bomb.

 

I really, really, really, really, really, really don't like how this is popping up as a recurring issue. And I really, really, really, really, really hope nobody here ever brings up something that stupid and idiotic here ever again.

 

Hint hint hint hint hint. T_T

It's racist to acknowledge that there are probably dumb people who are bad at geography and history, and will choose not to see a movie because their understanding of anything east of Germany is basically "idk some brown people and then Russia"? I don't think it'll bomb because of it but there a definitely people who will be influenced by current events. I thought that post just said that  IF any movie were to be effected by this particular ignorant group of people, the marvels is the most likely. That doesn't seem unreasonable

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13123	15271	2148	14.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

80

 

T-11 Comps:   WARNING - USE ONLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR OF THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	200.00		44	1074		0/146	20993/22067	4.87%		4494	47.80%		15.00m
Scrm6	281.89		29	762		0/78	9098/9860	7.73%		3134	68.54%		16.07m
Wick4	161.14		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	39.43%		14.34m
AtSV	95.59		93	2247		0/129	18539/20786	10.81%		9744	22.04%		16.59m
GOTG3	55.32		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	19.98%		9.68m
Flash	156.79		60	1370		0/178	23778/25148	5.45%		5327	40.32%		15.21m
Barbie	85.85		202	2502		0/99	10211/12713	19.68%		12077	17.79%		19.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     483/3078  [15.69% sold]
Matinee:    182/926  [19.65% | 8.47% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

So I've been mentioning off and on about how Barbie would start to pull away once its social media/review/premiere bounce started to be felt, and was pretty much at this point in the pre-sale run when it started to become apparent that Barbie might very well become *BARBIE!*. 

 

I only mention that because, truth be told, I'm actually a bit impressed how well FNAF is hanging with Across the Spider-Verse.  But, and here comes that song again, AtSV is gonna start getting its acceleration tomorrow.  That's one of the main reasons why I said earlier today that I wanted to see how FNAF does this week without the benefit of a world premiere or a social embargo drop.

 

I have my priors on the subject, but I admit to being curious to seeing just how it all plays out this week.

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	12969	15271	2302	15.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

154

 

T-10 Comps:   WARNING - USE ONLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR OF THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	205.35		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	51.22%		15.40m
Scrm6	284.90		46	808		0/77	8931/9739	8.30%		3134	73.45%		16.24m
Wick4	165.37		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	42.25%		14.72m
AtSV	95.88		154	2401		0/129	18385/20786	11.55%		9744	23.62%		16.63m
GOTG3	57.04		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	21.41%		9.98m
Flash	161.09		59	1429		0/178	23719/25148	5.68%		5327	43.21%		15.63m
Barbie	78.62		426	2928		0/99	9785/12713	23.03%		12077	19.06%		17.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     499/3078  [16.21% sold]
Matinee:    186/926  [20.09% | 8.08% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

You know, I'm starting to think this film might be on the verge of breaking out.

[Porthos]

On 10/16/2023 at 1:23 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26707	27515	808	2.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GOTG3	30.06		43	2688		0/206	26983/29671	9.06%		10750	7.52%		5.26m
TLM	110.53		60	731		0/154	21263/21994	3.32%		6561	12.32%		11.38m
Indy 5	102.02		12	792		0/124	18735/19527	4.06%		4767	16.95%		7.35m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     107/8661  [1.24% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.47% of all tickets sold]
3D:            56/4989  [1.12% | 6.93% of all tickets sold]

 

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26658	27515	857	3.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	98.05		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		6409	13.37%		10.53m
GOTG3	30.66		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		10750	7.97%		5.37m
TLM	108.48		59	790		0/154	21201/21991	3.59%		6561	13.06%		11.17m
AtSV	84.10		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	8.80%		14.60m
Indy 5	102.51		44	836		0/124	18688/19524	4.28%		4767	17.98%		7.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     114/8661  [1.32% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.27% of all tickets sold]
3D:            57/4989  [1.14% | 6.65% of all tickets sold]

Edited October 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 10/13/2023 at 2:08 AM, Porthos said:

Other things which I didn't have time to get to....

 

 

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [T-7]

425/7469 (5.69% sold) [+40 tickets] 55 showtimes

 

0.69332x Nope at T-7              [4.44m]

0.22158x Oppenheimer at T-7 [2.33m]

 

Might check again at T-3, might not.  See where it goes and what other interesting comps I might have come to mind.

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [T-3]

650/9328 (6.97% sold) [+126 tickets] 72 showtimes

 

0.53454x Nope at T-3              [3.42m]

0.59145x Creed III at T-3          [3.22m]

0.23123x Oppenheimer at T-3 [2.43m]

 

I dunno, fam.  Still looking like mid-to-low 3's to me.  But I don't track all that many low openers, so could be wrong.  Have to see how it goes.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26658	27515	857	3.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	98.05		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		6409	13.37%		10.53m
GOTG3	30.66		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		10750	7.97%		5.37m
TLM	30.66		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		6561	13.06%		3.16m
AtSV	84.10		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	8.80%		14.60m
Indy 5	102.51		44	836		0/124	18688/19524	4.28%		4767	17.98%		7.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     114/8661  [1.32% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.27% of all tickets sold]
3D:            57/4989  [1.14% | 6.65% of all tickets sold]

The TLM row is wrong here, looks like you copied the GOTG3 numbers by mistake.

Edited October 17, 2023 by JustLurking

[YM!]

 

For those who care.

[filmlover]

Flower Moon seems likely to be a very weekend heavy movie due to how long it is (nearly 3.5 hours of movie + 15-20 minutes of trailers = a good portion of the day right there). I wouldn't sweat about previews being on the soft side.

[M37]

Prediction: Trolls as a franchise and with earlier release date will have better presales start than Wish

 

(Which doesn't necessarily mean it will outperform it overall)

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Prediction: Trolls as a franchise and with earlier release date will have better presales start than Wish

 

(Which doesn't necessarily mean it will outperform it overall)

That’s what I’m thinking too.

[titanic2187]

If American can stay undeterred by the domestic gun violence that almost taking place on the daily basis for decades, I don't get how Israel-Palestine conflict can affect moviegoing in any meaningful way.

[Relevation]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Prediction: Trolls as a franchise and with earlier release date will have better presales start than Wish

 

(Which doesn't necessarily mean it will outperform it overall)

This feels like a given imo since Wish is TUE previews and an original film

 

At least Trolls told people tickets were on sale from the jump lol