The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	93	125	894	12970	6.89

 

Comps:

0.23x Oppenheimer: $2.45 Million

0.5x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $3.52 Million

0.52x Indiana Jones 5: $3.76 Million

3.96x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $4.75 Million

2.11x The Creator (w/ EA): $3.37 Million

 

Average: $3.57 Million

 

It did drop against every comp, but it pretty much stayed even with the larger comps. Right now I would guess it'll slowly drop to something like $3.25 Million, but we'll see. On a positive note, this will be the first release in like forever that I get to do T-1 hour for, yay!

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	105	209	1103	13701	8.05

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	23.38
3-Day:	64.14

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.23x Oppenheimer: $2.39 Million (25%, 80%)

0.48x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $3.36 Million (29%, 69%)

0.55x Indiana Jones 5: $3.99 Million (16%, 65%)

3.54x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $4.24 Million

The Creator (w/ EA): Missed

 

Average: $3.49 Million

 

Oppenheimer is bringing it down, and I am not fully convinced of its usefulness here, since this seems to have overperformed in my market (probably due to the prevalence of PLFs and a couple of 70 MM offerings), as well as the powerhouse Barbenheimer effect.  KOFM is running pretty close to Indiana Jones, and thankfully I'll finally be able to pull some T-0 numbers tomorrow. Mission Impossible had the funky Tuesday release as well, so no perfect comps here. Still in the $3.25-3.5 Million previews range, but we'll see how walk-ups go.

Edited October 18, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Denver Friday: 2876 sold

0.254x Eras Tour Friday T-2 (8.83M)

Do you know the split between MTC1 and the rest. I am assuming almost everything is from MTC1. 

[Austin]

28 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

https://deadline.com/2023/10/five-nights-at-freddys-box-office-projection-1235577413/ 

 

bruh

$40M OD more like 

[Shawn Robbins]

39 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

https://deadline.com/2023/10/five-nights-at-freddys-box-office-projection-1235577413/ 

 

bruh

 

[Relevation]

10 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

$100M LRF tomorrow? 

[Inceptionzq]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Do you know the split between MTC1 and the rest. I am assuming almost everything is from MTC1. 

68.3% MTC1, almost the exact same split as last Friday at this time (68.2%)

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

68.3% MTC1, almost the exact same split as last Friday at this time (68.2%)

That makes it even better. I looked at some MTC2 shows tomorrow and presales are rock solid. It will win tomorrow for sure ahead of Flower Moon previews. 

[vafrow]

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-8/D1, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 296

New sales: N/A

Growth: N/A

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 9.25

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

8.22x Saw X for $16.4M (D1 comp)

59.20x Nun 2 for $183.5M (D1 comp)

7.05x Exorcist Believer for $20.1M (D15 comp)

 

So, I did a full manual count and it didn't kill me, so maybe I drop a few of these occasionally.

 

I used a smaller range of theatres, but still have 10 to give some balance to it.

 

The Saw X is the real comp here. Exorcist was up for sale for two weeks already. Nun 2 was really slow to start and just underperformed.

 

It's a strong performance against Saw X, but, sales for that doubled on day 2. I don't see that happening here. But, Saw X also overperformed in Canada for whatever dark reasons they may be.

 

What jumps out is how variable sales are. My local theatre, which usually tracks below average, has the most popular showtime. I'm also in a very family oriented community, so it might speak to the demographics.

 

Also, there's a lot of theatres that aren't doing great, and I wonder if it relates to those in areas where theatres opened up Friday and beyond sales earlier than previews. Saw X was only available for previews until T-3 or so. 

 

Overall, it's a good opening day, but, I was expecting better.

 

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

 

 

55 minutes ago, Relevation said:

$100M LRF tomorrow? 

 

@Shawn, right about now:

 

 

Spoiler

Original HoC still, by far, the best. 👍

 

Spoiler

Ftr, I ain't expecting 100m, as Shawn rightfully likes to be conservative in his estimates.

 

Spoiler

As a pinpoint 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

Seems obvious the movie is Thanksgiving.

[M37]

4 hours ago, Bob Train said:

BOT is famous now

 

 

 

[misterpepp]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Seems obvious the movie is Thanksgiving.

 

Looking more like It's a Wonderful Knife, but we shall see.

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

Looking more like It's a Wonderful Knife, but we shall see.

 

I have never heard of this movie before.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Shawn said:

 

 

In completely and totally unrelated news, we are now accepting open applications for additional moderators in this thread.

 

Totally...  unrelated...

 

PAYWALL.

[Taylor89]

16 hours ago, M37 said:

Related question: will the Thursday shows this week be counted separately or rolled into the weekend total? I would presume the former, but with such a weird and limited schedule, I’m not positive the latter won’t happen to help generate headlines 

 

I really didn't understand this..😣

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

I have never heard of this movie before.

Christmas slasher with Justin Long from the writer of Freaky. 
 

It’s a small independent release though, so maybe it’ll be Thanksgiving instead. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26628	27515	887	3.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

30

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	82.67		199	1073		0/96	14470/15543	6.90%		6409	13.84%		8.88m
GOTG3	30.49		114	2909		0/206	26760/29669	9.80%		10750	8.25%		5.34m
TLM	104.48		59	849		0/154	21799/22648	3.75%		6561	13.52%		10.76m
AtSV	69.73		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	9.10%		12.11m
Flash	138.59		640	640		0/158	21727/22367	2.86%		5327	16.65%		13.44m
Indy 5	104.72		11	847		0/124	18674/19521	4.34%		4767	18.61%		7.54m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     120/8661  [1.39% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.16% of all tickets sold]
3D:            65/4989  [1.30% | 7.33% of all tickets sold]

 

---

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

 

Many of the above comps are just starting out their pre-sale runs, so, obvs, take with a grain of salt until they stabilize.

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26613	27515	902	3.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

15

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	73.87		148	1221		0/96	14322/15543	7.86%		6409	14.07%		7.93m
GOTG3	29.93		105	3014		0/206	26655/29669	10.16%		10750	8.39%		5.24m
TLM	98.90		63	912		0/154	21736/22648	4.03%		6561	13.75%		10.19m
AtSV	66.37		87	1359		0/123	18537/19896	6.83%		9744	9.26%		11.52m
Flash	119.00		118	758		0/174	23970/24728	3.07%		5327	16.93%		11.54m
Indy 5	100.78		48	895		0/124	18626/19521	4.58%		4767	18.92%		7.26m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     122/8661  [1.41% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.10% of all tickets sold]
3D:            65/4989  [1.30% | 7.21% of all tickets sold]

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	122	15268	17695	2427	13.72%

 

Total Showings Added Today	20
Total Seats Added Today	2424
Total Seats Sold Today	125

 

T-9 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	203.61		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	54.01%		15.27m
Scrm6	285.53		42	850		0/77	8897/9747	8.72%		3134	77.44%		16.28m
Wick4	165.89		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	44.55%		14.76m
AtSV	93.60		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	24.91%		16.24m
GOTG3	57.25		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	22.58%		10.02m
TLM	113.94		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	36.99%		11.74m
Flash	156.68		120	1549		0/175	23344/24893	6.22%		5327	45.56%		15.20m
Barbie	75.14		302	3230		0/127	12791/16071	20.10%		12077	20.10%		16.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     533/3078  [17.32% sold]
Matinee:    203/926  [21.92% | 8.36% of all tickets sold]

 

=========

 

From earlier today:

 

 

So literally.... LIT-ER-A-LY... EVERY SINGLE LOCAL MTC2 THEATER EXCEPT ONE EXPANDED SCREEN COUNTS TONIGHT.  Plus one of the minors also added a showing*.

*though technically not a screen as it added a late night showing.

 

...

 

So what about MTC3?!?

 

Let's get a Live Look locally what's going on over at MTC3:

 

(not a single one of the added showings was at MTC3)

((amazing, innit?))

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	15480	18029	2549	14.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	334
Total Seats Sold Today	122

 

T-8 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	200.08		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	56.72%		15.01m
Scrm6	285.76		42	892		0/77	8855/9747	9.15%		3134	81.33%		16.29m
Wick4	161.02		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	46.79%		14.33m
AtSV	92.15		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		9744	26.16%		15.99m
GOTG3	57.81		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	23.71%		10.12m
TLM	113.19		122	2252		0/165	21248/23500	9.58%		6561	38.85%		11.66m
Flash	153.55		111	1660		0/178	23488/25148	6.60%		5327	47.85%		14.89m
Barbie	69.61		432	3662		0/179	17666/21378	17.13%		12077	21.11%		15.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     547/3078  [17.77% sold]
Matinee:    207/926  [22.35% | 8.12% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 10/18/2023 at 12:46 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [T-2]

820/11634 (7.05% sold) [+170 tickets] 91 showtimes

 

0.52937x Nope at T-2                [3.39m]

0.57784x Creed III at T-2           [3.15m]

0.27305x Oppenheimer at T-2  [2.87m]

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [T-1]

973/11929 (8.16% sold) [+153 tickets] 95 showtimes

 

0.43072x Nope at T-1                [2.76m]

0.42694x Creed III at T-1           [2.33m]

0.26248x Oppenheimer at T-1  [2.76m]

 

Not a good next-to-last day locally at all, sad to say.

 

No mid-day check for Q&Ds so final check will be sometime after 4:30pm local time. 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Porthos

[vale9001]

@M37 i think thursay numbers for TET will be separated from the weekend.

When it's an holiday weekend you can count more than 3 days weekend but it's for everyone. I don't think for a movie only makes sense to count a 4 day weekend, weekend it's still fri-sun in normal weeks.

Edited October 19, 2023 by vale9001