The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

I'll do a full update tomorrow, but for now I'm not seeing anything in FNAF's pace pattern that suggests a slowdown, hitting some kind of wall, or frankly anything other than a ~$13M Thursday. With that said, T-7 is usually moving day, when the final trajectory really starts up, and I'm curious to see if sales can keep up with ATSV's big jump in particular

 

The next couple of days (through T-3) may be where we start to see capacity be somewhat of a limiting factor (particularly for Drafthouse), before shows are (hopefully) expanded next week

[M37]

On 10/7/2023 at 8:29 AM, M37 said:

Also concerning: the lack of growth nor acceleration in Saturday sales, where again capacity is far less of limiting factor. That should be a more walk-up friendly sales day by far, so it should at least match Friday (despite nearly double the show volume), but perhaps not by much more, which lowers the IM value off wherever Friday lands. Overall, the forecast has been lowered to reflect the apparent reality that there is limited demand beyond tickets already purchased

 

Swift ERAS Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Friday Opening Day Gross Range
		$33.0	$34.3	$35.5	$36.8	$38.0	$39.3	$40.5	$41.8	$43.0
Fri / Wknd Ratio (IM)	2.30	$75.9	$78.8	$81.7	$84.5	$87.4	$90.3	$93.2	$96.0	$98.9
	2.45	$80.9	$83.9	$87.0	$90.0	$93.1	$96.2	$99.2	$102.3	$105.4
	2.60	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.8	$102.1	$105.3	$108.6	$111.8
	2.75	$90.8	$94.2	$97.6	$101.1	$104.5	$107.9	$111.4	$114.8	$118.3
	2.90	$95.7	$99.3	$103.0	$106.6	$110.2	$113.8	$117.5	$121.1	$124.7
	3.05	$100.7	$104.5	$108.3	$112.1	$115.9	$119.7	$123.5	$127.3	$131.2
	3.20	$105.6	$109.6	$113.6	$117.6	$121.6	$125.6	$129.6	$133.6	$137.6
	3.35	$110.6	$114.7	$118.9	$123.1	$127.3	$131.5	$135.7	$139.9	$144.1
	3.50	$115.5	$119.9	$124.3	$128.6	$133.0	$137.4	$141.8	$146.1	$150.5

 

We're probably still getting the first ever $100M October OW ever, but my confidence in that prospect has definitely lowered

On 10/10/2023 at 9:08 AM, M37 said:

At this point, I'll be a little surprised if Eras can even match TGM's EA pace into Friday. I'm definitely focusing on the upper left quadrant of the forecast matrix in prior post for OW, starting to think under $100M more likely than not

People have asked previously for me to post the result after the fact. ERAS didn't land in the main target zone, but given the unprecedented level of frontloading in pre-sales, calling this (mostly) a win (even with assist from last minute added Thursday shows)

 

Swift ERAS Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Friday Opening Day Gross Range
		$33.0	$34.3	$35.5	$36.8	$38.0	$39.3	$40.5	$41.8	$43.0
Fri / Wknd Ratio (IM)	2.30	$75.9	$78.8	$81.7	$84.5	$87.4	$90.3	$93.2	$96.0	$98.9
	2.45	$80.9	$83.9	$87.0	$90.0	$93.1	$96.2	$99.2	$102.3	$105.4
	2.60	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.8	$102.1	$105.3	$108.6	$111.8
	2.75	$90.8	$94.2	$97.6	$101.1	$104.5	$107.9	$111.4	$114.8	$118.3
	2.90	$95.7	$99.3	$103.0	$106.6	$110.2	$113.8	$117.5	$121.1	$124.7
	3.05	$100.7	$104.5	$108.3	$112.1	$115.9	$119.7	$123.5	$127.3	$131.2
	3.20	$105.6	$109.6	$113.6	$117.6	$121.6	$125.6	$129.6	$133.6	$137.6
	3.35	$110.6	$114.7	$118.9	$123.1	$127.3	$131.5	$135.7	$139.9	$144.1
	3.50	$115.5	$119.9	$124.3	$128.6	$133.0	$137.4	$141.8	$146.1	$150.5

 

 

 

[jeffthehat]

Counted the top 5 selling theaters for Eras last weekend at Malco and got these comps

 

Eras 2nd Thursday T-0

 

2.06x Eras 1st Thu T-0 = $5.8m

 

Eras 2nd Fri T-1

 

0.204x Eras 1st Fri T-1 = $7.1m

 

Still no showtimes for FNAF. Guessing they'll be added Mon/Tues like they were for KotFM this week. 

[charlie Jatinder]

ComScore is reporting THU for Taylor, so mostly won't be reported with weekend. 

[Austin]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

People have asked previously for me to post the result after the fact. ERAS didn't land in the main target zone, but given the unprecedented level of frontloading in pre-sales, calling this (mostly) a win (even with assist from last minute added Thursday shows)

 

Swift ERAS Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Friday Opening Day Gross Range
		$33.0	$34.3	$35.5	$36.8	$38.0	$39.3	$40.5	$41.8	$43.0
Fri / Wknd Ratio (IM)	2.30	$75.9	$78.8	$81.7	$84.5	$87.4	$90.3	$93.2	$96.0	$98.9
	2.45	$80.9	$83.9	$87.0	$90.0	$93.1	$96.2	$99.2	$102.3	$105.4
	2.60	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.8	$102.1	$105.3	$108.6	$111.8
	2.75	$90.8	$94.2	$97.6	$101.1	$104.5	$107.9	$111.4	$114.8	$118.3
	2.90	$95.7	$99.3	$103.0	$106.6	$110.2	$113.8	$117.5	$121.1	$124.7
	3.05	$100.7	$104.5	$108.3	$112.1	$115.9	$119.7	$123.5	$127.3	$131.2
	3.20	$105.6	$109.6	$113.6	$117.6	$121.6	$125.6	$129.6	$133.6	$137.6
	3.35	$110.6	$114.7	$118.9	$123.1	$127.3	$131.5	$135.7	$139.9	$144.1
	3.50	$115.5	$119.9	$124.3	$128.6	$133.0	$137.4	$141.8	$146.1	$150.5

 

 

 

I know you are doing as much as you can, but I am just curious as if you will be doing one of these range tables for FNAF also?

[M37]

Just now, Austin said:

I know you are doing as much as you can, but I am just curious as if you will be doing one of these range tables for FNAF also?

Sure will! Part of the T-7 update tomorrow. There will definitely be some triple digits values on the table, though want one more day of numbers to really hone in on ranges & midpoints 

[John Marston]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-marvels-box-office-tracking-1235622799/

 

70-80m for The Marvels 

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-21):

596 tickets sold (10 Houston AMC's) +15 YD

Comp:

0.886 x MI:DR (EA + PV at D-21) = $6.2m

 

1.56 x (D-21 PV only) MI:DR = $10.9m 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Giorno

[Maggie]

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-marvels-box-office-tracking-1235622799/

 

70-80m for The Marvels 

Expected

[keysersoze123]

27 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-marvels-box-office-tracking-1235622799/

 

70-80m for The Marvels 

LOL they are using quorum.

[Arlborn]

32 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-marvels-box-office-tracking-1235622799/

 

70-80m for The Marvels 

Good range, tracking here so far suggests no more than 70M though, right? But we'll see how people react to the social media reactions and reviews, they could turn people around.

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Arlborn

[Austin]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

LOL they are using quorum.

And for some reason referenced GOTG3's OW $12M lower than what it was...

 

Edit: just realized they mixed up AMATWQ's OW with GOTG3's OW

Edited October 19, 2023 by Austin

[Arlborn]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

LOL they are using quorum.

I know, right? When I saw that I thought to myself "they might as well just quote people in this thread, that would probably be more reliable..."

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Arlborn

[Grand Cine]

32 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-marvels-box-office-tracking-1235622799/

 

70-80m for The Marvels 

It's the range i think before the beginning of presales so i think it's "good" but i'm little nervous about the possible impact of reviews

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Good range, tracking here so far suggests no more than 70M though, right? But we'll see how people react to the social reactions and reviews, they could turn people around.

 

based on tracking here 70m seems generous 

[Liiviig 1998]

Even 10m previews can't guarantee 70m . HR range looks quite generous .

 

Thinking around flash to Indy OW for now.

[Zakiyyah6]

There are people on the forums who seem sure that the reviews for The Marvels will be good and help it, just like they were sure that Eternals reviews were going to be good...I'm not sure of anything. 

[Liiviig 1998]

Deadline 75-80m 

[Willowra]

41 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Deadline 75-80m 

From where are they getting these numbers? Is this movie going to have 14x+ IM with 5m in previews or 10x+ IM with 7m in previews?

[Giorno]

Just now, Willowra said:

From where are they getting these numbers? Is this movie going to have 14x+ IM with 5m in previews or 10x+ IM with 7m in previews?

Tracking data using awareness/interest, assuming they believe it will have good reviews/WOM to propel it, as we saw guardians at one point was looking like a sub 100m OW and then it grew and had good WOM to hit 118m