The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Shawn Robbins]

LRF should be up soon. Adjusting Wish to include lower floors just in case, factoring in the convos we all had from last week and crowding of female films this month. @keysersoze123 @M37 @TwoMisfits @Relevation @Grand Cine @Porthos

 

The fact that Deadline (likely via NRG and/or the studio) are going with $50M+ 5-day is probably a good sign since they usually try to be conservative. But that's not a fail-proof benchmark.

 

Big cluster of films is going to lead to more volatility than usual for a number of movies and their ranges this month. I'm still rather concerned about The Marvels unless it's going to really break out with the eleventh hour sales and walk-ups.

 

We'll see how Hunger Games shapes up in momentum (it's a little behind Fantastic Beasts 3 data that I have, but decently ahead of other comps from 2023.

[Krissykins]

59 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-wish-napoleon-projection-1235591106/

 

From Wednesday to Sunday :

 

Wish : 50M+

Napoleon : 24M+

 

 

 

 

 

That seems fine for both. Napoleon similar 5 day to KOTFM 3 day. Budget is $130m though. 
 

 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Shawn said:

We'll see how Hunger Games shapes up in momentum (it's a little behind Fantastic Beasts 3 data that I have, but decently ahead of other comps from 2023.

 

FWIW, this is the biggest warning sign I have for BOSAS, as it's behind locally and has nearly the exact same pre-sale window length, with only one day difference.

 

Now what's going for BOSAS is that FB3 was coming off a... less than well received entry AND JKR had a shit ton of unfavorable publicity at the time.  Also, while it's only whispers at the moment, have seen some stray comments that BOSAS is supposed to be pretty good, so it could very well have a much better back end of the pre-sale run than FB3 did.

 

Still, ain't gonna lie.  Didn't like that it was at about 3/4ths FB3 locally on D1.  But this is one of those situation where there is a real case for optimism given this is a restart of a franchise so folks might legitimately be waiting on the sidelines awaiting cues of quality.  Plus the promotion angle is in fact an open question.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Porthos

[misterpepp]

3 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Please share Pre-sales tracking of Miyazaki Masterpiece whenever it start

Tix on sale Nov 13.

 

That’s not from one of my usual sources though, that’s just from the GKIDS official website, heh.

 

Should be noted that at least one theater that’s part of the NY/LA preview engagement has them on sale now.

Edited November 2, 2023 by misterpepp

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, this is the biggest warning sign I have for BOSAS, as it's behind locally and has nearly the exact same pre-sale window length, with only one day difference.

 

Now what's going for BOSAS is that FB3 was coming off a... less than well received entry AND JKR had a shit ton of unfavorable publicity at the time.  Also, while it's only whispers at the moment, have seen some stray comments that BOSAS is supposed to be pretty good, so it could very well have a much better back end of the pre-sale run than FB3 did.

 

Still, ain't gonna lie.  Didn't like that it was at about 3/4ths FB3 locally on D1.  But this is one of those situation where there is a real case for optimism given this is a restart of a franchise so folks might legitimately be waiting on the sidelines awaiting cues of quality.  Plus the promotion angle is in fact an open question.

You just honed in on exactly what's driving my wide-reaching expectation for a long haul run because, almost ironically, even with an FB3-like opening I could see Ballad pulling out an FB1-like multiplier *if* reception is that good.

 

It was sneaky at the time, but that first Beasts had very respectable legs for a franchise that had come to be known for frontloading and was going the prequel route up against some heavy competition in late 2016.

[el sid]

Priscilla, counted today for today had 243 sold tickets in 4 theaters (the AMCs in NY, Miami, San Francisco and LA.
Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday): 80 for Brady had 161 sold tickets,
Crawdads had 262 sold tickets,
Death on the Nile had 466 sold tickets

and Ticket to Paradise had 153 sold tickets (with way more star power).

And for Friday it had today 335 sold tickets, again in 4 theaters (the same as above).
Comps (always counted on Thursday for Friday): 80 for Brady (12.7M OW) had 193 sold tickets,
Crawdads (17.3M) had again 262 sold tickets,
Death on the Nile (12.9M) had 487 sold tickets

and Ticket to Paradise (16.5M) had 179 sold tickets.

 

From my comps it should for sure reach 5M OW and I wouldn't rule out 10M. But other reports here look worse, it gets only around 1.450 theaters and will probably play better on the coasts . So I say 7M OW.

Edited November 2, 2023 by el sid

[Bob Train]

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
11/10/2023	The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3)						Focus Features
11/10/2023	The Marvels	$45,000,000 – $62,000,000	-2%		$109,000,000 – $156,000,000	-2%	Disney / Marvel Studios
11/10/2023	Journey to Bethlehem	$2,000,000 – $6,000,000	-11%		$5,000,000 – $20,000,000	-11%	Sony / AFFIRM Films
11/17/2023	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	$38,000,000 – $50,000,000	+1%		$97,000,000 – $157,000,000	+1%	Lionsgate
11/17/2023	Next Goal Wins	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	-7%		$12,800,000 – $31,500,000	-7%	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/17/2023	Thanksgiving	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	-7%		$22,000,000 – $40,000,000	-6%	Sony / TriStar Pictures
11/17/2023	Trolls Band Together	$23,000,000 – $33,000,000			$73,000,000 – $120,000,000		Universal Pictures
11/22/2023	Napoleon	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$23,000,000 – $32,000,000	$54,000,000 – $74,000,000		Sony Pictures / Apple
11/22/2023	Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17)						Amazon Studios / MGM
11/22/2023	Wish	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000	-7%	$57,000,000 – $86,800,000	$165,000,000 – $289,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
12/1/2023	Godzilla Minus One						Toho International
12/1/2023	Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000			$40,000,000 – $80,000,000		AMC Theatres Distribution
12/1/2023	The Shift						Angel Studios
12/1/2023	Silent Night	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$13,000,000 – $30,000,000		Lionsgate

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-renaissance-a-film-by-beyonce-and-silent-night/

Edited November 2, 2023 by Bob Train

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

PRISCILLA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
129	201	22478	0.89%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

50

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.232x) of KOTFM $604K Previews

(0.693x) of Fat Greek Wedding 3 $381K Previews

(0.421x) of Haunting in Venice $505K Previews

Comps AVG: $496k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

PRISCILLA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
129	314	22478	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

113

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.880x) of Fat Greek Wedding 3 $483K Previews

(0.388x) of Haunting in Venice $465K Previews

Comps AVG: $474k

 

Lets call it $400k-$500k

[Hilts]

22 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Priscilla							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm						ATP	$13.20
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	7	14	4	23	1,471	1.56%	21.05%
T-4	7	14	13	36	1,471	2.45%	56.52%
T-3	7	14	17	53	1,471	3.60%	47.22%
T-2	7	15	17	70	1,491	4.69%	32.08%
T-1	8	20	4	74	2,010	3.68%	5.71%
MTC1	4	9	+2	43	768	5.60%	4.88%
MTC2	2	5	+3	11	519	2.12%	37.50%
MTC3	2	6	-1	20	723	2.77%	-4.76%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.356x	=	$0.39m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					0.685x	=	$0.38m
A Haunting In Venice					0.302x	=	$0.36m

 

Comp average: $380k

 

Quietest day at T-1 I have tracked. Ran the numbers twice to be sure. Shame.

 

Priscilla							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm						ATP	$12.95
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	7	14	13	36	1,471	2.45%	56.52%
T-3	7	14	17	53	1,471	3.60%	47.22%
T-2	7	15	17	70	1,491	4.69%	32.08%
T-1	8	20	4	74	2,010	3.68%	5.71%
T-0	8	20	47	121	2,010	6.02%	63.51%
MTC1	4	9	+26	69	768	8.98%	60.47%
MTC2	2	5	+11	22	519	4.24%	100.00%
MTC3	2	6	+10	30	723	4.15%	50.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.355x	=	$0.39m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					0.600x	=	$0.33m
A Haunting In Venice					0.300x	=	$0.36m

 

Comp average: $360k

 

Lowest number of final tickets sold that I have tracked so in a bit of uncharted waters here, could be anything from $250k-$500k. I'll just stick with the average and hopefully A24 will report.

[keysersoze123]

On 11/1/2023 at 6:48 AM, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 52268/699149 1039931.64 3572 shows +1277

Friday - 33149/1048128 633588.95 5327 shows +1399

 

This is where lack of catalyst come to bite it. Instead of growth, its flat lining at this point. Let us see how it goes rest of the week. 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-8) - 54265/705238 1077957.83 3610 +1997

Friday - 35163/1050868 670999.31 5341 shows +2014

 

This is as of late yesterday. At least it accelerated yesterday. Still less than half of Guardians pace on T-8 and less than Flash T-8. Its tracking like 80% of Flash minus early shows BO which should be like ~9.5m. So around 7.6m. Guardians comp also wont be that far off. But looking at HUGE MTC1 over index, Flash may be a better bet than even Guardians.  

 

On 11/1/2023 at 9:44 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Marvels MTC2 previews - 19314/502662 3618 shows

 

Its worse than Shang Chi here. no $ value as I am having issues for certain shows. Eternals(T-6) was at 42801 and so its not even in the same ballpark. Guardians was more than 4x this number !!! MTC1 is the one carrying the weight here. 

Marvels MTC2 previews - 20289/500914 298923.78 3613 shows +975

 

As I said MTC1 is carrying the weight here. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/26/2023 at 1:58 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

230

3221

7.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

159

2202

7.22%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
856	12	26872	3.63%	13	139

 

1.149	Indiana Jones 5 T-14	8.27M
1.007	The Flash T-14	9.77M

0.644

Eternals T-14

6.12M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

263

3221

8.17%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

84

2281

3.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 7 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
952	96	27048	3.52%	13	141

 

0.971	Indiana Jones 5 T-7	6.99M
0.797	The Flash T-7	7.73M

0.534

Eternals T-7

5.07M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/26/2023 at 1:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Thursday

168 Showings

3333

+62

25199

ATP:

17.27

0.722	Indiana Jones 5 T-14	5.20M
1.514	The Flash T-14	14.68M

 

T-15 Friday

225 Showings

2940

+90

35187

ATP:

17.04

0.731	Indiana Jones 5 T-15	12.28M
2.001	The Flash T-15	29.62M

 

T-16 Saturday

233 Showings

2656

+62

36219

ATP:

15.89

0.683	Indiana Jones 5 T-16	12.69M
2.040	The Flash T-16	32.03M

 

T-17 Sunday

215 Showings

1165

+31

33555

ATP:

15.56

0.558	Indiana Jones 5 T-17	10.11M
2.165	The Flash T-17	33.56M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-7 Thursday

193 Showings

4138

+805

28285

ATP:

17.15

0.729	Indiana Jones 5 T-7	5.25M
1.240	The Flash T-7	12.02M

0.754

Eternals T-7

7.16M

 

T-8 Friday

234 Showings

3872

+932

36073

ATP:

16.79

0.761	Indiana Jones 5 T-8	12.78M
1.766	The Flash T-8	26.13M

0.765

Eternals T-8

16.33M

 

T-9 Saturday

241 Showings

3537

+881

37060

ATP:

15.88

0.723	Indiana Jones 5 T-9	13.44M
1.747	The Flash T-9	27.42M

0.696

Eternals T-9

16.79M

 

T-10 Sunday

223 Showings

1692

+527

34421

ATP:

15.71

0.571	Indiana Jones 5 T-10	10.34M
1.789	The Flash T-10	27.72M

0.575

Eternals T-10

9.38M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/26/2023 at 2:01 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Thursday

158 Showings

1006

+44

25534

1.095	Indiana Jones 5 T-14	7.88M
0.986	The Flash T-14	9.57M

 

T-15 Friday

242 Showings

547

+47

39662

1.087	Indiana Jones 5 T-15	18.27M
0.938	The Flash T-15	13.89M

 

T-16 Saturday

252 Showings

501

+28

40537

1.891	Indiana Jones 5 T-16	35.13M
1.322	The Flash T-16	20.75M

 

T-17 Sunday

243 Showings

217

+7

39341

1.824	Indiana Jones 5 T-17	33.01M
1.400	The Flash T-17	21.70M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment [+7 days of sales]

T-7 Thursday

157 Showings

1313

+307

25368

1.233	Indiana Jones 5 T-7	8.88M
0.901	The Flash T-7	8.74M

 

T-8 Friday

243 Showings

915

+368

39786

0.949	Indiana Jones 5 T-8	15.95M
0.966	The Flash T-8	14.30M

 

T-9 Saturday

254 Showings

749

+248

40837

1.472	Indiana Jones 5 T-9	27.34M
1.081	The Flash T-9	16.97M

 

T-10 Sunday

245 Showings

356

+139

39656

1.703	Indiana Jones 5 T-10	30.83M
1.092	The Flash T-10	16.93M

[Pinacolada]

Napoleon 5 day Deadline is a lowball. Trust.

 

$30m 5 day is the goal I'd say

[Taylor89]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
11/10/2023	The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3)						Focus Features
11/10/2023	The Marvels	$45,000,000 – $62,000,000	-2%		$109,000,000 – $156,000,000	-2%	Disney / Marvel Studios
11/10/2023	Journey to Bethlehem	$2,000,000 – $6,000,000	-11%		$5,000,000 – $20,000,000	-11%	Sony / AFFIRM Films
11/17/2023	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	$38,000,000 – $50,000,000	+1%		$97,000,000 – $157,000,000	+1%	Lionsgate
11/17/2023	Next Goal Wins	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	-7%		$12,800,000 – $31,500,000	-7%	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/17/2023	Thanksgiving	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	-7%		$22,000,000 – $40,000,000	-6%	Sony / TriStar Pictures
11/17/2023	Trolls Band Together	$23,000,000 – $33,000,000			$73,000,000 – $120,000,000		Universal Pictures
11/22/2023	Napoleon	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$23,000,000 – $32,000,000	$54,000,000 – $74,000,000		Sony Pictures / Apple
11/22/2023	Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17)						Amazon Studios / MGM
11/22/2023	Wish	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000	-7%	$57,000,000 – $86,800,000	$165,000,000 – $289,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
12/1/2023	Godzilla Minus One						Toho International
12/1/2023	Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000			$40,000,000 – $80,000,000		AMC Theatres Distribution
12/1/2023	The Shift						Angel Studios
12/1/2023	Silent Night	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$13,000,000 – $30,000,000		Lionsgate

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-renaissance-a-film-by-beyonce-and-silent-night/

 

 Can Wish be number 1 for second week too?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

11 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Napoleon 5 day Deadline is a lowball. Trust.

 

$30m 5 day is the goal I'd say

good luck

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

what is the amc mystery movie screening

[Ezen Baklattan]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

what is the amc mystery movie screening

Given the runtime and PG-13 rating, I’m predicting Next Goal Wins

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	101	20993	0.48%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.224x) of Exorcist $640K Previews

Comps AVG: $640k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	116	20993	0.55%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.256x) of Exorcist $728K Previews

Comps AVG: $728k

[Hilts]

On 11/1/2023 at 9:35 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.66
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
MTC1	8	59	+12	380	10,485	3.62%	3.26%
MTC2	4	48	+13	110	8,204	1.34%	13.40%
MTC3	3	39	+18	214	8,077	2.65%	9.18%
Other	10	42	+7	72	6,943	1.04%	10.77%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.709x	=	$5.10m
Barbie					0.257x	=	$5.71m
Oppenheimer					0.528x	=	$5.55m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.933x	=	$8.21m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.470x	=	$8.23m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.538x	=	$5.54m

 

Matinee: 2.96%

3D: 9.28%

PLF: 60.70%

 

Comp average: $6.39m

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.69
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
T-7	25	188	41	817	33,709	2.42%	5.28%
MTC1	8	59	+12	392	10,485	3.74%	3.16%
MTC2	4	48	+2	112	8,204	1.37%	1.82%
MTC3	3	39	+26	240	8,077	2.97%	12.15%
Other	10	42	+1	73	6,943	1.05%	1.39%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.717x	=	$5.16m
Barbie					0.242x	=	$5.38m
Oppenheimer					0.513x	=	$5.38m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.918x	=	$8.08m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.409x	=	$7.89m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.531x	=	$5.46m

 

Matinee: 2.94%

3D: 9.42%

PLF: 59.85%

 

Comp average: $6.23m

 

Just a reminder that I do not have the best comps here. Until I build up a few more in my arsenal with longer pre-sale windows unfortunately stuck with these. Barbenheimer is bringing the average down and MI/TMNT are Discount Tues releases with EA/Sneaks so not reliable (although they look reasonable for now).

 

That leaves Indy trending up and FNAF trending down. If you adjust FNAF up for ATP diff then I am not too far off what others are seeing. Need to see a strengthening tomorrow otherwise I can already say it will not look good on my next update.