The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

Hunger Games Songbird & Snakes T-13

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco Theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 124

 

Comp 

 

.403x Marvels T-13 = ??

 

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Interesting! Could be a very successful strategy given its Christmas release status. $20 is pretty high like another user mentioned, I wonder if how meaningfully it will raise its ATP

I am not sure those gifted Color Purple tickets will actually cost any more than usual. Here's the language from the site:

 

This movie ticket gift value is $20.
The average movie ticket price in the US is $15.
Recipient can use the entire value of the ticket to buy more than one as prices for a movie ticket vary.

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I forgot to post this. But this is of really early morning today.

 

Hunger Games  Blah Blah MTC1 Previews - 15608/337234 308432.18 1793 shows

 

Its ok but nothing great. Let us see how it holds after day or 2. At least reviews will be out in a week's time. Hopefully it ramps up to a good final number. For now I am not feeling 50m OW for now. 

Hunger Games: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES - 18829/340606 369152.77 1807 shows +3221

 

Not bad for Day 2 of PS. 

 

[M37]

On 10/29/2023 at 9:23 AM, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-12 Update

 

The chart and a few quick words

See comments here as to why these particular comps were chosen.

 

Overall the values vs these comps were ... better than I had expected? The view of the data overall depends on whether one focuses solely on recent MCU history, where GOTG3 had an atypically strong finish and might be considered closer to an upper bound, or if the lower sales volume for Marvels (and time of year) makes GOTG3/Eternals more of the baseline, with room to go higher (or yes, lower).  I'm of the second opinion, and with these comps looks to me like ~$7-$8M, with some higher uncertainty and IMO absolutely room to go higher

 

Funny enough, my mental ballpark estimate has been 8x8, meaning roughly $8M Thursday and up to 8x, and to me the data is roughly in line with that preview value (IM TBD later). But probably are going to have to wait until final week if not days to really narrow down trajectory and a more precise Thursday value

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-7 Update

 

Something picture lots of words

 

Average has been fluctuating around $7M depending on which comp are updated each day. I suppose the good news is that Marvels largely is holding very steady against these comps - a whole lot of straight lines - but in MCU terms the bar is decently high for the finishing pace, and there's really not much to suggest its poised to outrun them over the final 7 days, if not potentially start to slide down. Will plant a flag on $7M previews, but if Disney doesn't round to nearest half million, maybe a bit below that, unless some of the lower comp values can start to come up and meet MTC1

Note: Marvels should do improve against Eternals comps over the next 3 days, but I wouldn't read too much into that, as the comp period was Oct 29-31

 

As far as the IM and OW ... Friday numbers and beyond are actually lower. The day/day ratios for Drafthouse are very similar to GOTG3 and ATSV, which posted a 6.77x and 6.94x respectively, as opposed to Eternals 7.5x (despite being dragged down by reviews/WOM). The underlying issue is that sales thusfar are both Thursday and PLF heavy, and if the GA doesn't start showing up for Thursday, not sure why they would suddenly on the weekend. Friday probably gets an added walk-up bump due to work & school holiday observation of Veteran's day, but overall I'd probably take the under on a 7x IM (even if barely)

 

Put those two values together, and, well, yeah ....

 

Spoiler

Let's try this again?

 

Marvels Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$5.70	$6.00	$6.30	$6.60	$6.90	$7.20	$7.50	$7.80	$8.10
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.70	$32.5	$34.2	$35.9	$37.6	$39.3	$41.0	$42.8	$44.5	$46.2
	5.98	$34.1	$35.9	$37.6	$39.4	$41.2	$43.0	$44.8	$46.6	$48.4
	6.25	$35.6	$37.5	$39.4	$41.3	$43.1	$45.0	$46.9	$48.8	$50.6
	6.53	$37.2	$39.2	$41.1	$43.1	$45.0	$47.0	$48.9	$50.9	$52.9
	6.80	$38.8	$40.8	$42.8	$44.9	$46.9	$49.0	$51.0	$53.0	$55.1
	7.08	$40.3	$42.5	$44.6	$46.7	$48.8	$50.9	$53.1	$55.2	$57.3
	7.35	$41.9	$44.1	$46.3	$48.5	$50.7	$52.9	$55.1	$57.3	$59.5
	7.63	$43.5	$45.8	$48.0	$50.3	$52.6	$54.9	$57.2	$59.5	$61.8
	7.90	$45.0	$47.4	$49.8	$52.1	$54.5	$56.9	$59.3	$61.6	$64.0

 

 

You may notice the previous 8x8 ballpark - $8M thur & 8x - is now basically the bottom right corner, and 7x7 seems more likely. The blue line represents the cut-off for lowest MCU OW [whether one counts Universal's Hulk ($55.4M) or Ant-Man ($57.2M)] while the red line is the Morbius Zone, which cannot yet be ruled out, barring some poor reviews or some other combination of poor pace and lower IM

 

Maybe being the only non-horror (or concert) film of note since Labor Day brings people in by default, or perhaps the premiere/social media reactions/reviews helps turn a corner at the last minute, but to me even an "optimistic" outcome is nudging up into the light green zone over $50M

Edited November 3, 2023 by M37

[filmlover]

 

[Tinalera]

The Marvels

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs Nov 9 and Fri Nov 10 (T-6/T-7)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	24	294	3797	4091	0.0718
	Fri	3	22	229	4999	5228	0.0438
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	18	191	4860	5051	0.0378
	Fri	4	26	185	5731	5916	0.0312

 

 

Calgary had a weird one where it looks they removed 4 shows for Friday? So that number is down for seats sold/available from previous count. Otherwise, Calgary seems pretty static with Vancouver making noise.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Quorum LOL :-)

[Relevation]

38 minutes ago, M37 said:

Put those two values together, and, well, yeah ....

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Was there supposed to be a matrix here orrrrr

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Was there supposed to be a matrix here orrrrr

Yes ... not sure what happened in first post, so rewrote that section and put it back (and verified it was visible this time)

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

The Marvels

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs Nov 9 and Fri Nov 10 (T-6/T-7)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	24	294	3797	4091	0.0718
	Fri	3	22	229	4999	5228	0.0438
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	18	191	4860	5051	0.0378
	Fri	4	26	185	5731	5916	0.0312

 

 

Calgary had a weird one where it looks they removed 4 shows for Friday? So that number is down for seats sold/available from previous count. Otherwise, Calgary seems pretty static with Vancouver making noise.

Can you add any comps. Guardians or Flash would be good. 

[Relevation]

59 minutes ago, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-7 Update

 

Something picture lots of words

 

Average has been fluctuating around $7M depending on which comp are updated each day. I suppose the good news is that Marvels largely is holding very steady against these comps - a whole lot of straight lines - but in MCU terms the bar is decently high for the finishing pace, and there's really not much to suggest its poised to outrun them over the final 7 days, if not potentially start to slide down. Will plant a flag on $7M previews, but if Disney doesn't round to nearest half million, maybe a bit below that, unless some of the lower comp values can start to come up and meet MTC1

Note: Marvels should do improve against Eternals comps over the next 3 days, but I wouldn't read too much into that, as the comp period was Oct 29-31

 

As far as the IM and OW ... Friday numbers and beyond are actually lower. The day/day ratios for Drafthouse are very similar to GOTG3 and ATSV, which posted a 6.77x and 6.94x respectively, as opposed to Eternals 7.5x (despite being dragged down by reviews/WOM). The underlying issue is that sales thusfar are both Thursday and PLF heavy, and if the GA doesn't start showing up for Thursday, not sure why they would suddenly on the weekend. Friday probably gets an added walk-up bump due to work & school holiday observation of Veteran's day, but overall I'd probably take the under on a 7x IM (even if barely)

 

Put those two values together, and, well, yeah ....

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Let's try this again?

 

Marvels Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$5.70	$6.00	$6.30	$6.60	$6.90	$7.20	$7.50	$7.80	$8.10
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.70	$32.5	$34.2	$35.9	$37.6	$39.3	$41.0	$42.8	$44.5	$46.2
	5.98	$34.1	$35.9	$37.6	$39.4	$41.2	$43.0	$44.8	$46.6	$48.4
	6.25	$35.6	$37.5	$39.4	$41.3	$43.1	$45.0	$46.9	$48.8	$50.6
	6.53	$37.2	$39.2	$41.1	$43.1	$45.0	$47.0	$48.9	$50.9	$52.9
	6.80	$38.8	$40.8	$42.8	$44.9	$46.9	$49.0	$51.0	$53.0	$55.1
	7.08	$40.3	$42.5	$44.6	$46.7	$48.8	$50.9	$53.1	$55.2	$57.3
	7.35	$41.9	$44.1	$46.3	$48.5	$50.7	$52.9	$55.1	$57.3	$59.5
	7.63	$43.5	$45.8	$48.0	$50.3	$52.6	$54.9	$57.2	$59.5	$61.8
	7.90	$45.0	$47.4	$49.8	$52.1	$54.5	$56.9	$59.3	$61.6	$64.0

 

 

You may notice the previous 8x8 ballpark - $8M thur & 8x - is now basically the bottom right corner, and 7x7 seems more likely. The blue line represents the cut-off for lowest MCU OW [whether one counts Universal's Hulk ($55.4M) or Ant-Man ($57.2M)] while the red line is the Morbius Zone, which cannot yet be ruled out, barring some poor reviews or some other combination of poor pace and lower IM

 

Maybe being the only non-horror (or concert) film of note since Labor Day brings people in by default, or perhaps the premiere/social media reactions/reviews helps turn a corner at the last minute, but to me even an "optimistic" outcome is nudging up into the light green zone over $50M

Gonna be so funny when this inevitably gets crossposted to Reddit (and possibly X too)

[HummingLemon496]

[M37]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

Gonna be so funny when this inevitably gets crossposted to Reddit (and possibly X too)

... why do you think I put it under a spoiler box in the first place?

 

Also, the last MCU release didn't go so well for my forecast, and I've tried to be optimistic - or at least patient - but there's really nothing in the data nor a catalyst that really screams a surge is coming. Should know for sure by T-4.

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-27 *First few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	60	6654	0.09%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(0.300x) of The Creator $405k Previews

Comps AVG: $405k

*Take this with a grain of salt, because no MTC1 will really skew things

 

Not much going on...No MTC1 listed yet 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-7 Update

 

Something picture lots of words

 

Average has been fluctuating around $7M depending on which comp are updated each day. I suppose the good news is that Marvels largely is holding very steady against these comps - a whole lot of straight lines - but in MCU terms the bar is decently high for the finishing pace, and there's really not much to suggest its poised to outrun them over the final 7 days, if not potentially start to slide down. Will plant a flag on $7M previews, but if Disney doesn't round to nearest half million, maybe a bit below that, unless some of the lower comp values can start to come up and meet MTC1

Note: Marvels should do improve against Eternals comps over the next 3 days, but I wouldn't read too much into that, as the comp period was Oct 29-31

 

As far as the IM and OW ... Friday numbers and beyond are actually lower. The day/day ratios for Drafthouse are very similar to GOTG3 and ATSV, which posted a 6.77x and 6.94x respectively, as opposed to Eternals 7.5x (despite being dragged down by reviews/WOM). The underlying issue is that sales thusfar are both Thursday and PLF heavy, and if the GA doesn't start showing up for Thursday, not sure why they would suddenly on the weekend. Friday probably gets an added walk-up bump due to work & school holiday observation of Veteran's day, but overall I'd probably take the under on a 7x IM (even if barely)

 

Put those two values together, and, well, yeah ....

 

  Hide contents

Let's try this again?

 

Marvels Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$5.70	$6.00	$6.30	$6.60	$6.90	$7.20	$7.50	$7.80	$8.10
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.70	$32.5	$34.2	$35.9	$37.6	$39.3	$41.0	$42.8	$44.5	$46.2
	5.98	$34.1	$35.9	$37.6	$39.4	$41.2	$43.0	$44.8	$46.6	$48.4
	6.25	$35.6	$37.5	$39.4	$41.3	$43.1	$45.0	$46.9	$48.8	$50.6
	6.53	$37.2	$39.2	$41.1	$43.1	$45.0	$47.0	$48.9	$50.9	$52.9
	6.80	$38.8	$40.8	$42.8	$44.9	$46.9	$49.0	$51.0	$53.0	$55.1
	7.08	$40.3	$42.5	$44.6	$46.7	$48.8	$50.9	$53.1	$55.2	$57.3
	7.35	$41.9	$44.1	$46.3	$48.5	$50.7	$52.9	$55.1	$57.3	$59.5
	7.63	$43.5	$45.8	$48.0	$50.3	$52.6	$54.9	$57.2	$59.5	$61.8
	7.90	$45.0	$47.4	$49.8	$52.1	$54.5	$56.9	$59.3	$61.6	$64.0

 

 

You may notice the previous 8x8 ballpark - $8M thur & 8x - is now basically the bottom right corner, and 7x7 seems more likely. The blue line represents the cut-off for lowest MCU OW [whether one counts Universal's Hulk ($55.4M) or Ant-Man ($57.2M)] while the red line is the Morbius Zone, which cannot yet be ruled out, barring some poor reviews or some other combination of poor pace and lower IM

 

Maybe being the only non-horror (or concert) film of note since Labor Day brings people in by default, or perhaps the premiere/social media reactions/reviews helps turn a corner at the last minute, but to me even an "optimistic" outcome is nudging up into the light green zone over $50M

An absolute disaster, yet expected. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Apparently ERAS TOUR is getting an extension in theaters, or at least that's what Swift's PR firm is telling a good friend and source of mine.

 

Has anyone heard this previously? Seems like news to me with the wording of the original and only press release that I'm aware of. And I don't see tickets on sale past November 5.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Apparently ERAS TOUR is getting an extension in theaters, or at least that's what Swift's PR firm is telling a good friend and source of mine.

 

Has anyone heard this previously? Seems like news to me with the wording of the original and only press release that I'm aware of. And I don't see tickets on sale past November 5.

The original deal was for minimum of 4 weeks, but up to 26. My expectation is that it will be treated like any other release (except for the weird scheduling) moving forward and keep playing at most - or at least many - locations through Thanksgiving, maybe falling off when Beyonce takes the stage

[misterpepp]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

The original deal was for minimum of 4 weeks, but up to 26. My expectation is that it will be treated like any other release (except for the weird scheduling) moving forward and keep playing at most - or at least many - locations through Thanksgiving, maybe falling off when Beyonce takes the stage

 

I was about to mention this! If Swift's PR firm is considering this an extension, it's likely because most theaters are opting to keep it past the 4-week minimum.

[Shawn Robbins]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

The original deal was for minimum of 4 weeks, but up to 26. My expectation is that it will be treated like any other release (except for the weird scheduling) moving forward and keep playing at most - or at least many - locations through Thanksgiving, maybe falling off when Beyonce takes the stage

 

3 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

 

I was about to mention this! If Swift's PR firm is considering this an extension, it's likely because most theaters are opting to keep it past the 4-week minimum.

 

Makes sense knowing that. Their original press release really should have clarified as much and prevented some, ahem, internal headaches... but oh well.

[Tinalera]

47 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you add any comps. Guardians or Flash would be good. 

Ill take a dig back and see what I can find.