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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXR vs XXR,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
On 11/6/2023 at 11:18 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 24796/344720 479103.98 1829 shows +2138

Friday - 21627/498422 404591.65 2600 shows

 

Previews was for 21 hours or so. Its not bad but nothing crazy on pace. Let me see if I can get 24 hour run tomorrow. Friday relative to Thursday is quite good. 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 27214/348070 523072.36 1850 shows +2418

Friday - 24285/498219 453005.59 2596 shows +2658 

 

Its pace is really good. I am expecting it to accelerate by Friday when the reviews hit. 

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PlatnumRoyce Box Office Gold

PlatnumRoyce

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Looks like Deadline has decided to rip off the bandaid.

Quote

Currently presales for The Marvels are just north of $5M which are on par with Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash, that movie flaming out with a $55M start stateside. 

just wanted to flag that line

 

edit: I think this is being misread. Given that Flash made 9.7M in THRUSDAY previews, this is saying TM banked ~5M for entire weekend+ of previews as of yesterday(?).

Edited by PlatnumRoyce
2nd edit thanks to people pointing out I also erred in conflating R previews with full previews
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DInky Sleeper Hit

DInky

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

We are in Shazam 2 territory if it only pulls 5m for previews considering MCU is more frontloaded than DCEU. 

 

What are the Thursday preview numbers looking like right now? Will the movie really miss 6M?

Edited by DInky
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Spidey Freak Global Phenomenon

Spidey Freak

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11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

So are THG and Marvels getting the same review embargo date then? That’s some shady shit on LG’s part if the buzz about THG getting great reception is true lol. 

 

If The Marvels reviews suck then it's actually the best time to highlight that Songbirds rules.

 

If The Marvels reviews are good and so are the ones for THG, then a positive narrative can be spun around both films and their actresses overcoming online hate 

 

Honestly smart, not shady provided THG is actually good.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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2 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

If The Marvels reviews suck then it's actually the best time to highlight that Songbirds rules.

 

If The Marvels reviews are good and so are the ones for THG, then a positive narrative can be spun around both films and their actresses overcoming online hate 

 

Honestly smart, not shady provided THG is actually good.

I think every rival studio is well in on the “Marvels seems doomed” trajectory at this point… if LG knows they have a crowd pleaser with THG, it IS shady to release reviews around the exact same time as Marvels might be going out to the slaughter. But yes, very smart for them lol. 

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PlatnumRoyce Box Office Gold

PlatnumRoyce

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9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’m not a tracking data guy, just saying based off of that Deadline comment if it were to go that low… 

I don't think that's what they're saying. 

 

Quote

Currently presales for The Marvels are just north of $5M which are on par with Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash, that movie flaming out with a $55M start stateside. Yikes. The worry is that if previews, which start Thursday at 3PM, come in north of $6M, The Marvels’ weekend will crater to $40M+.

 

Flash had 9.7M in previews x 5.67 IM = $55M.

 

This implies to me they're hoping for 9M in previews having already banked 5M.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, DInky said:

 

What are the Thursday preview numbers looking like right now? Will the movie really miss 6M?

 

Personally, I'd say anywhere from 5.5m to 6.5m is a likely range.  IMO sales haven't absolutely collapsed but they're kinda... just limping along? 

 

I've actually become slightly slightly ***SLIGHTLY*** more optimistic/bullish on The Marvels the last couple of days, as I think the jump on the dogpile/watch the train wreck mentality has overtaken the actual data to a tiny degree.

 

A big wild card right now is how the reaction/reviews go over. It's not a matter of "saving" the film, as that ship sailed a while ago, in as much as stopping a complete meltdown.

 

For a while my internal target was probably 6m flat.  Miiiiiiiiiiight raise that to 6.25m, depending on the next couple of days.  @M37 has been raising a very good point about the Eternals comp and when Halloween fell during its pre-sale run.  OTOH, the comp still stayed flat last night locally, and whatever review/reaction bounce/attention The Marvels is gonna get is gonna be a late one compared to nearly all other MCU films.  So it is... plausible it has a slightly stronger Wed/Thr pace than other MCU films which already had reviews reactions baked in.

 

Closest one might be Thor 4 which had a super later review embargo (though it still had earlier reactions).  But then there's disentangling increased sales from reactions/reviews (if there is an increase) with the natural increase week-of release usually sees.

 

Anyway, to answer your question: Yes, it can absolutely miss 6m.  

 

Will it?  

 

Replyhazytryagainlater.jpg

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DInky Sleeper Hit

DInky

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

I don't think that's what they're saying. 

 

Flash had 9.7M in previews x 5.67 IM = $55M.

 

This implies to me they're hoping for 9M in previews having already banked 5M.

 

Not all of those presales are for Thursday though, right?

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, DInky said:

 

Not all of those presales are for Thursday though, right?

 

Absolutely correct.  Whenever a Trade reports "Film X has $Y in presales so far" they are (almost always) talking about ALL PRESALES, including any beyond the OW.  It is true that the lion's share will be on Thursday, especially for a film like this.  But, yes, Deadline is almost certainly talking about all sales.

 

====

 

If I have a concern about The Marvels and its OW internal multiplier, it isn't so much frontloadness, though that's obviously a factor.  It's the runtime being so relatively short. 

 

Shorter runtime = more showtimes on Thr = more demand burnt off.

 

This is a reasonably consistent formula.

 

Now WOM absolutely is a factor and it could push fence sitters one direction or the other.  But the 105min run time is gonna be a big one, one way or the other.

Edited by Porthos
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