The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Mean Girls Sacramento Report [T-2]

1224/12214 (10.02% sold) [+192 tickets] 86 showtimes [EA: 531 | Stan: 693] [+37 | +155] 

 

EA:      531/1017      [52.21% sold]

Stan: 538/11197     [6.19% sold]

 

0.30816x TLM at T-2        [3.17m]
0.22654x AtSV at T-2       [3.93m]
0.48921x RotB at T-2       [4.31m]
0.16071x Barbie at T-2      [3.58m]
1.11985x  HM at T-2          [3.47m]
0.77813x BOSS at T-2      [4.47m]
1.19648x Wonka at T-2    [4.19m]

 

=======

 

Decided to throw some spaghetti at the wall, with a mix of over and under performers locally.  Still think Wonka and Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes are the best comps, but wanted to put some variety into the mix.  Interestingly enough, neither one of those comps moved all that much.

 

Still looking like north of 4m combined EA and standard, locally.  Now we wait and see what Tomato Law will bring...

 

Quick and Dirty Mean Girls Sacramento Report [T-1]

1531/12208 (12.54% sold) [+307 tickets] 86 showtimes [EA: 621 | Stan: 693] [+90 | +217] 

 

EA:      621/1011      [61.42% sold] [FINAL]

Stan:   910/11197    [8.13% sold]

 

0.30780x TLM at T-1         [3.17m]
0.21763x AtSV at T-1         [3.78m]
0.44610x RotB at T-1         [3.93m]
0.16196x Barbie at T-1       [3.61m]
1.07514x HM at T-1            [3.33m]
0.78033x BOSS at T-1       [4.49m]
1.20932x Wonka at T-1     [4.23m]

 

===

 

No real change in trajectory as comps are fairly stable.  Next and final check sometime around 4:30pm-ish Pacific time.

Edited January 11 by Porthos

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

 Deadline's Wednesday evening weekend forecast does not seriously lowball against other prevailing forecasts for once:

 

"Mean Girls is excellent with women, and poised to clear $30 million over the four-day MLK weekend at 3,782 theaters. Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios’ R-rated Jason Statham action title The Beekeeper, solid with men and multicultural audiences, is looking at $16M Friday-Monday... Beekeeper is in 3,303 locations including Imax, Screen X, 4DX and some Dolby…The Book of Clarence, which isn’t suppose to do well with a low-single-digit take over four days at 2,100 theaters....”

 

Mean Girls' and Beekeeper's location counts are also both higher than has previously been stated elsewhere... Earlier this week, Beekeeper's estimated location count (per Box Office Report) was "2750+." That "+" has swollen by more than 550 additional locations.  Mean Girls had previously been stated to be opening in "an estimated 3600 locations" tomorrow. Its new 3782 locations number could put it at the top of the location counts this weekend. Last weekend Wonka was in 3817 locations (after falling by 234 locations from the prior weekend), so it could only lose 35 theaters this weekend without ceding the location count crown to Mean Girls. 

 

https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girl-preview-1235712531/

 

Edit: One other tracking tidbit included by Deadline is the number of national locations for Mean Girls' Wednesday EA screenings: 450, seemingly all PLF & Dolby theaters. Demonstrates how limited capacity was, as cited by trackers on here. "Tonight, Paramount is holding early previews of Mean Girls at 450 Dolby and PLF theaters, aka an “On Wednesdays We Wear Pink Early Access Screening” at 7 p.m. That money will be rolled into Thursday previews, which start at 4 p.m." No mention of Beekeeper's Saturday EA screenings in terms of number of locations or to which day BK's EA earnings will be applied.

Edited January 11 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[LonePirate]

 

The regular IMAX re-release of Oppenheimer is still very light for pre-sales this weekend; but the 70mm IMAX showings like this one at Lincoln Square in NYC and others like the one at the AMC Metreon in SF are selling plenty of tickets. With Oscar noms coming soon, the film is still inching towards the $1B threshold with roughly $48M more to go. Overseas numbers will need to increase to make $1B a reality.

[el sid]

The presales of The Book of Clarence were a nice surprise today (at least compared to those on Monday). It had today 109 sold tickets for today (with now showtimes in 6 theaters; on Monday it had 42 sold tickets). And 116 sold tickets for Friday (also with showtimes in 6 theaters).
Comp: Honk for Jesus (1.4M OW) had, also counted on Thursday of the release week, 69 sold tickets for Thursday and 25 for Friday (but better 154 for Saturday).

Hard to say what that means with only one halfway fitting comp but at least its presales are no disaster anymore. Maybe 3-5M OW (3-day)?

The Beekeeper soon.

[el sid]

The Beekeeper, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 185 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 49 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 103 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 95 (6 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 455.

Up modest 21.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): Expend4bles (750k from previews) had 273 sold tickets,
Plane (435k) had 210,
Silent Night (250k) had 150
and Meg 2 (3.2M) had 586 sold tickets.

Average (without Silent Night because I think The Beekeeper will have way better walk-ups): 1.55M. A bit down from yesterday.

[el sid]

The Beekeeper, counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 201 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 42 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 67 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 349.

Up meager 13% since yesterday.
Comps (all four films counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Expend4bles (2.35M true Friday) had 273 sold tickets,
Plane (2.565M) had 292,
Meg 2 (8.8M) had 651
and Gran Turismo (3.2M) had 301 sold tickets.

Average: 3.6M true Friday. It lost in the comps, yesterday it were 4.35M in my theaters.

Disappointing jumps but quite good reviews. Low to mid-teens (3-day) would be my guess.

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Mean Girls Sacramento Report [T-1]

1531/12208 (12.54% sold) [+307 tickets] 86 showtimes [EA: 621 | Stan: 910] [+90 | +217] 

 

EA:      621/1011      [61.42% sold] [FINAL]

Stan:   910/11197    [8.13% sold]

 

0.30780x TLM at T-1         [3.17m]
0.21763x AtSV at T-1         [3.78m]
0.44610x RotB at T-1         [3.93m]
0.16196x Barbie at T-1       [3.61m]
1.07514x HM at T-1            [3.33m]
0.78033x BOSS at T-1       [4.49m]
1.20932x Wonka at T-1     [4.23m]

 

===

 

No real change in trajectory as comps are fairly stable.  Next and final check sometime around 4:30pm-ish Pacific time.

 

Quick and Dirty Mean Girls Sacramento Report [T-0] [3:55pm - 4:10pm] [FINAL]

1835/12208 (15.03% sold) [+304 tickets] 86 showtimes [EA: 621 | Stan: 1214] [+0 | +304]

 

EA:          621/1011      [61.42% sold] [FINAL]

Stan:   1214/11197      [10.84% sold]

 

0.27968x TLM at T-0         [2.88m]
0.18832x  AtSV at T-0       [3.27m]
0.36899x RotB at T-0        [3.25m]
0.15194x  Barbie at T-0     [3.39m]
0.79748x  HM at T-0         [2.47m]
0.67938x BOSS at T-0      [3.91m]
0.92911x Wonka at T-0     [3.25m]

 

====

 

Downright putrid walkups today locally.  Saw it earlier when I did a spot check at the half-way mark and it really didn't pick up much since then.  Could be a combo case of EA sales burning off demand + fan rush + key targeted demo actually is working/unavailable for Thursdays (and the ones who were available were partially siphoned off on Wed).  Or could be first signs of WOM that this is a stealth musical/reaction to RT score being in the low 70s.

 

Either way, not a strong finish to say the least.

 

Still, as always, Q&Ds can be a little wonky.  Plus the EA will probably salvage the numbers somewhat.  Gonna split the difference between BOSS and Wonka and say 3.6m +/-. 4m. 

Edited January 12 by Porthos

[DAJK]

Yea Mean Girls walkups are really really bad today. Thinking tomorrow will rebound, since sales are still strong. Going to go with 3.5M flat including yesterday. 
 

Beekeeper keeps picking up. No idea what it grossed last weekend, but I could see 1.4-1.5 today. So 2M?

 

I don’t think Clarence has sold a single ticket here today.

Edited January 12 by DAJK

[TwoMisfits]

26 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Yea Mean Girls walkups are really really bad today. Thinking tomorrow will rebound, since sales are still strong. Going to go with 3.5M flat including yesterday. 
 

Beekeeper keeps picking up. No idea what it grossed last weekend, but I could see 1.4-1.5 today. So 2M?

 

I don’t think Clarence has sold a single ticket here today.

 

It pays having $5 any ticket codes all weekend...the "why the heck not, what else do I have to do" male 13-45 buyer will come out if the movie is decent enough...

Edited January 12 by TwoMisfits

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Mean Girls

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
528	4531	103699	4.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1127

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(2.510x) of Night Swim $3.77M 

Comps AVG: $3.77M

 

Comp does not include EA. Very strong sales here. I would say $4.5M+ total previews seems possible but Night swim is not the best comp. 

FLORIDA 

 

Mean Girls

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
540	4968	106158	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

437

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(2.073x) of Night Swim $3.11M 

Comps AVG: $3.11M

 

Meh final day growth, however walkups are strong so far. 

 

Going with $3.1M Thursday + whatever it made during EA 

 

So overall $3.8M 

[DAJK]

Bit of a qualifier for my earlier post. Awful awful weather today and throughout the weekend, getting hit with snowstorm tonight, and I’ve talked to a couple of the GMs at different theaters in the area, the weather is definitely crippling sales.

 

Disregard my earlier post about walkups as being indicative of overall trends. Sorry for the confusion.

[M37]

Given the smaller size of the EA and the weaker final day sales reports coming in, I'm not convinced Mean Girls gets to $3M in total previews, including the EA shows

[TheFlatLannister]

	Night swim	mean girls
10:00 PM	245	233
9:00 PM	334	278
8:00 PM	343	332
7:00 PM	759	1046
6:00 PM	764	920
5:00 PM		932

 

 

Yeah, Mean girls slowed down drastically here. This is the hourly sample taken from the greater Miami area with walkups baked in 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/8/2024 at 10:46 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-24, Day 1, taken at 10:30 PM):

Day: T-24	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	40	39	39	7542	0.52

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.83x Wonka: $2.9 Million

0.81x Napoleon: $2.44 Million

1.03x The Creator: $1.64 Million

 

Overall really not a bad Day 1, there is some initial interest there for sure. Obviously the comps aren't super helpful at this point but just wanted to show where initial interest was for comparison sake. We'll see where it goes from here, rooting for this one!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	9	48	8206	0.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		37	6	77.08
MTC1:		34	11	70.83
Marcus:		2	0	4.17
Alamo:		9	0	18.75
Other chains:		3	-2	6.25

 

Comps:

0.18x KOFM: $480k

0.0503x Oppy: $525k

 

Average: $500k

 

After a not bad first day, this has done absolutely nothing at all. I'll remove the Oppy comp next update and add The Creator, since I think it's silly comparing it with something like that, but just wanted to show that this is doing really bad at this point 

 

Still quite a bit of time to improve though! 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/7/2024 at 6:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

I.S.S (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	31	16	16	2996	0.53

 

Comps:

0.1x The Creator: $140k

 

Not exactly a hot start...

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

I.S.S (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	40	13	29	3728	0.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		19	9	65.52
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		10	7	34.48
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

0.16x The Creator: $220k

0.48x Haunting in Venice: $530k

0.15x Blue Beetle: $500k

 

Average: $415k

 

Not great bub

 

My next update will be next Tuesday, doing a lil travel over the long weekend!

Edited January 12 by abracadabra1998

[keysersoze123]

On 1/9/2024 at 9:53 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Beekeeper MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 10786/352592 177106.90 2007 shows

Friday - 10524/457952 168343.84 2600 shows

 

probably looking at 1m ish previews(minus early shows) or around 2m with early shows plus low double digits OW. 

Beekeeper MTC1

Previews Final - 32206/355445 501923.34 2022 shows

Friday - 20776/462468 327533.26 2629 shows

 

I am thinking around 2.4/2.5 with early shows. if they keep it separate around ~1.5m for thursday alone. Should hit 12-13m for 3 day weekend. Walkups were robust as it finished around 14.5K yesterday night. 

[emoviefan]

43 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	9	48	8206	0.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		37	6	77.08
MTC1:		34	11	70.83
Marcus:		2	0	4.17
Alamo:		9	0	18.75
Other chains:		3	-2	6.25

 

Comps:

0.18x KOFM: $480k

0.0503x Oppy: $525k

 

Average: $500k

 

After a not bad first day, this has done absolutely nothing at all. I'll remove the Oppy comp next update and add The Creator, since I think it's silly comparing it with something like that, but just wanted to show that this is doing really bad at this point 

 

Still quite a bit of time to improve though! 

Yeah the coy secretive marketing campaign might not be working here. 3 weeks is still enough time but it's time to step it up. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mean Girls Early Shows

MTC1 - 16354/23094 346775.46 128 shows

MTC2 - 4076/8884 63601.05 66 shows

 

Release seem very limited. I am thinking 600-700K range for shows today. 

 

Mean Girls MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 30549/327787 497833.89 1938 shows +6735

Friday - 52712/592281 831745.16 3410 shows +11085

 

Not convinced its making 3m previews without early BO. its ATP is still lower than blockbuster movies. It will probably need to double this number or under index big time at MTC1. I would probably go for 3.3m with early shows or 2.7m without. 

 

Friday sales are robust and so should hit high 20s by Sunday. Probably looking at 33m ish by MLK end.  

 

 

Mean Girls MTC1

Previews Final - 52515/326869 837206.61 1936 shows +21966

Friday - 74001/591716 1156207.85 3416 shows +21289

 

Walkups were just ok. But this movie should still hit high 20s OW at worst looking at strong Friday numbers plus this being MLK weekend. Previews I would say ~2.8m without early shows and around 3.5m overall. 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Dune: Part Two T-50: 41.23%

Love Lies Bleeding T-57: 15.67%

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-71: 41.17%

Unsung Hero T-106: 12.62%

IF T-127: 20.65%

 

The Beekeeper T-1: 46.39% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 51% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Medium Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 46% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

 

The Book of Clarence T-1: 28.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Mean Girls T-1: 60.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 95% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 40M, 79% chance of 50M

Low Awareness: N/A

 

I.S.S. T-8: 24.5% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-57: 51.65% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 50M, 78% chance of 60M, 67% chance of 90M, 55% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 90M

[TwoMisfits]

FYI - Since the Disney Pixar releases are obviously not selling, Cinemark released another "forever" deal for them - 25% off all tickets.  The code is NOT good on discount Tuesday, but is good for all other tickets (I guess Disney demanded a minimum revenue per ticket).  

 

Again, this is info only.  Like The Color Purple B10G1 free offer, I don't see this national deal moving the needle much, b/c these are 2nd run, and 2nd run kid movies are $2/each in the summer, not $12/each (the deal with regular ticket prices)...