The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2

 

Friday - 27112/100481 (481 showings) $315,261

 

Actual gross probably ~$290-300K, that would normally be $15M ish.

 

Comps

1.52x Elemental - $14.3M

2.04x Trolls 3 - $16.5M

 

Saturday - 7822/105846 (507 showings) ~$85K

 

Admits +20% from FRI while gross is +15%. SAT may be $21-22M ish.

Seeing the same thing in Florida for SAT

 

3320 seats sold in FRI presales

4745 seats sold for SAT presales 

 

Assuming $15M FRI, that would put SAT at $21.4M

Now, let's see how walkups go

[leoh]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Seeing the same thing in Florida for SAT

 

3320 seats sold in FRI presales

4745 seats sold for SAT presales 

 

Assuming $15M FRI, that would put SAT at $21.4M

Now, let's see how walkups go

Charlie said it was it was 19.25M

 

This would mean 15.5M pure Friday.

 

maybe 22M on Saturday?

 

Closer and closer to the 60M projections 

 

 

 

 

 

[Manny G]

So how is Ghostbusters looking? Is it looking to end up on par with the previous movies mid 40’s  opening?

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Friday Final

Panda 4 - 214960/822544 3029385.90 5598 shows

Dune 2 - 182574/757472 3208732.18 4441 shows

 

Great walkups for the bear and overtook Dune 2 comfortably. Though Dune 2 did gross more at MTC1. @charlie Jatinder can Panda do 15m true friday if ratio is like 20%?  Dune 2 just over 37% drop from true friday. ~13m.  

Actuals
KFP 4 - 3.22M
Dune 2 - 3.24M

KFP 4 Previews / FRI
 

1 - 0.84 / 3.22
3 - 0.56 / 2.26
2 - 0.81 / 2.41

CAN - 0.38 / 1.47

Mini1 - 0.08 / 0.38
Mini2 - 0.07 / 0.30

 

Think previews actuals should be $3.6-3.7M type.

Edited March 9 by charlie Jatinder

[filmlover]

12 hours ago, misterpepp said:

In case you've missed any of the live-action Spider-Man movies in theaters over the years, AMC is re-releasing all of them once a week starting on April 15 with the 2002 Spider-Man.

Looks like it's going to be at other chains too.

 

 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Looks like it's going to be at other chains too.

 

 

If Sony release them using the right strategy they together can easily top any box office weekend against any movie coming out this year. We are basically talking about a 10 billion franchise. 

[filmlover]

I will admit I'm surprised they never re-released the earlier movies when No Way Home was smashing all the records, giving them renewed interest. There's a whole generation of moviegoers now that didn't get the chance to experience the Maguire movies on the big screen when they were new.

[vafrow]

Whats the comp strategy for Fall Guy this week when it drops?

 

Obviously, there won't be much with a 50 day window, but even taking D1 sales, choices look slim. Something with a long window, but not a built in fan base.

 

I think KFP4 might be my best option, because I have such little to pull from. 27 day window, where things started slow. D1 to T-1 is about 3%. Dune had a long runway, but had upfront demand.

 

I don't have data on them, but Indiana Jones had a long window, and should have had up front demand that didn't really materialize from what I recall. Fast X had a ridiculous window as well. But also a long running franchise with built in demand.

 

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Whats the comp strategy for Fall Guy this week when it drops?

 

Obviously, there won't be much with a 50 day window, but even taking D1 sales, choices look slim. Something with a long window, but not a built in fan base.

 

I think KFP4 might be my best option, because I have such little to pull from. 27 day window, where things started slow. D1 to T-1 is about 3%. Dune had a long runway, but had upfront demand.

 

I don't have data on them, but Indiana Jones had a long window, and should have had up front demand that didn't really materialize from what I recall. Fast X had a ridiculous window as well. But also a long running franchise with built in demand.

Would not recommend KFP4, as family films are just on another level in terms of late vs early sales (I think Keyser said something like 45% of all sales in last day). Indy 5 actually had a lot of early/fan sales, and then completely lagged until the very end when casuals came out

 

Wonka might not too terrible of comp, or maybe Beekeper (I don't recall how long their respective sales windows were). Thinking of films that are going to have some level of adult early sales, but not a huge brand/IP fan base, and so still be walk-up friendly

[keysersoze123]

I did not post yesterday night. But just FYI

MTC1 Sat Presales

Panda - 122375/889426 1640308.09 6066 shows

Dune - 172991/790819 2953895.55 4632 shows

 

I am curious if Panda walkups and lower ratio can overcome dune today. Presales for dune is up like 70% and it did have good walkups last saturday. 

[misterpepp]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Looks like it's going to be at other chains too.

 

 

 

Yes, correction: this appears like it'll be at most major chains. Alamo Drafthouse is starting to post times as well.

[vafrow]

26 minutes ago, M37 said:

Would not recommend KFP4, as family films are just on another level in terms of late vs early sales (I think Keyser said something like 45% of all sales in last day). Indy 5 actually had a lot of early/fan sales, and then completely lagged until the very end when casuals came out

 

Wonka might not too terrible of comp, or maybe Beekeper (I don't recall how long their respective sales windows were). Thinking of films that are going to have some level of adult early sales, but not a huge brand/IP fan base, and so still be walk-up friendly

 

I've got Wonka, but it seems like it's an under index (which lead to my high KFP4 numbers). It had a 29 day window. I don't have Beekeeper unfortunately, but I'm pretty sure it was a short cycle.

 

I'm also really curious if Universal is going to build up any hype on this release this far out. Gosling seems to be gearing up to a pretty big and elaborate performance at the Oscars, and then immediately leaves for the SXSW debut.

 

There shouldn't be much pre-sales activity for something outside of a high profile IP, but maybe this level of exposure can translate.

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, M37 said:

Would not recommend KFP4, as family films are just on another level in terms of late vs early sales (I think Keyser said something like 45% of all sales in last day). Indy 5 actually had a lot of early/fan sales, and then completely lagged until the very end when casuals came out

 

Might be thinking of my post here:

 

On 3/7/2024 at 9:21 PM, Porthos said:

 

I want to expand a little bit about this.

 

Take Kung Fu Panda 4 in Sacramento.  It sold nearly 1100 tickets today by stop of tracking, for about 46% of ALL of its sales from the entire pre-sale run.

 

That's a nutty percentage for ONE DAY for a film.

 

It still lost a slight amount of ground to Elemental, comp wise (going from a comp of 3.08m to 2.95m), as Elemental did 48.6% of ITS sales on its day of release (929/1910).

 

Animated kid films just do bananas business on day of release as a proportion of all sales.  Thus it can be a little tricky to try to figure how just how big the walkups will be since one is never quite sure just how big the walkups really will be.

 

 

though keyser might have said something similar as I have to think the national stats are similar.

 

NB:  That's also at stop of tracking, so local stats would be even higher as it doesn't account for tickets bought after 4:30pm local time.

Edited March 9 by Porthos

[emoviefan]

26 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I've got Wonka, but it seems like it's an under index (which lead to my high KFP4 numbers). It had a 29 day window. I don't have Beekeeper unfortunately, but I'm pretty sure it was a short cycle.

 

I'm also really curious if Universal is going to build up any hype on this release this far out. Gosling seems to be gearing up to a pretty big and elaborate performance at the Oscars, and then immediately leaves for the SXSW debut.

 

There shouldn't be much pre-sales activity for something outside of a high profile IP, but maybe this level of exposure can translate.

It really seems like Universal feels like they have something here that can really pop and surprise on the upside. The industry buzz has been pretty good for this. If that turns out to be true than I feel like this will be one of those GA monsters even if the Cinephiles still turn up their nose. So yeah ticket sales will probably not really  explode until mid to late April when the GA really start paying attention. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/8/2024 at 6:18 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
482	2781	97492	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

107

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

(0.523x) of Dune 2 $4.84M  

 

Comps average: $4.84M

 

Continues to do really well.

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
482	2964	97492	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

183

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(0.539x) of Dune 2 $4.98M  

 

Comps average: $4.98M

 

Big increase today

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
482	2964	97492	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

183

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(0.539x) of Dune 2 $4.98M  

 

Comps average: $4.98M

 

Big increase today

This week Sony started marketing Ghostbusters in every single PlayStation related media. It seems it is working then… I was told there was a really popular Ghostbusters game and their marketing is now targeting gamers nostalgia. 
 

it seems it’s working.

Edited March 10 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did not post yesterday night. But just FYI

MTC1 Sat Presales

Panda - 122375/889426 1640308.09 6066 shows

Dune - 172991/790819 2953895.55 4632 shows

 

I am curious if Panda walkups and lower ratio can overcome dune today. Presales for dune is up like 70% and it did have good walkups last saturday. 

MTC1 Sat Final

Panda - 345232/898569 4620805.16 6173 shows 

Dune - 303483/791549 4993805.51 4643 shows  

 

Even crazier day for Panda and even Dune did fairly well. Dune dropped sub 30% compared to last week as well.  

[charlie Jatinder]

MTC 1 tracked

Dune OW - 1225K admits $20.3M (actual admits ~1.3M)
KFP OW - 880K admits $12M expected (actual admits ~980K)

Rest

Dune OW - $62M (may be 4.25-4.5M admits)
KFP OW - $48M expected (may be 4.25-4.5M admits)

Edited March 10 by charlie Jatinder

[Human]

5 hours ago, leoh said:

This week Sony started marketing Ghostbusters in every single PlayStation related media. It seems it is working then… I was told there was a really popular Ghostbusters game and their marketing is now targeting gamers nostalgia. 
 

it seems it’s working.

Yes, there is a very popular Ghostbusters game.  To many fans it is a sacred cow 

[leoh]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MTC 1 tracked

Dune OW - 1225K admits $20.3M (actual admits ~1.3M)
KFP OW - 880K admits $12M expected (actual admits ~980K)

Rest

Dune OW - $62M (may be 4.25-4.5M admits)
KFP OW - $48M expected (may be 4.25-4.5M admits)

Interesting 

Edited March 10 by leoh