The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

 

Indiana

The Fall Guy T-51

Sales	Seats	Shows
179	14563	79

 

Monkey Man T-23

Sales	Seats	Shows
88	6108	41

---

Pulled these this morning. Fall Guy starts about 2x Monkey Man first day in sales and shows. 

 

Edited March 12 by jeffthehat

[Porthos]

For people tracking The Fall Guy it's also got Wed EA showings.  Looks to be a fairly full slate of EA, as well.

[keysersoze123]

40 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Indiana

The Fall Guy T-51

Sales	Seats	Shows
179	14563	79

 

Monkey Man T-23

Sales	Seats	Shows
88	6108	41

---

Pulled these this morning. Fall Guy starts about 2x Monkey Man first day in sales and shows. 

 

I dont think that is a fair comp. Fall Guy is a big budget movie with stars, Monkey Man is a small movie that supposed to go direct to streaming and thanks to Peele its even releasing on big screen. There are no stars for big presales. Only reason its even selling anything is due to the buzz from early screening. 

[Porthos]

So taking a look around town and on the one hand, that it's sold anything at all is probably noteworthy.  On the other hand this level of sales makes any sort of comparison... difficult.

 

Only three movies released within the last two years really come to mind as even vaguely plausible.  

 

Fast X (started at T-*98*), we all know about.    Might be good for first day, but that also had a big trailer event followed by a Super Bowl spot (indeed the whole point of it launching at a frankly stupid length of pre-sales).

 

Only other two are JWD and Nope, both at starting T-42.  Do I need to point out the problems with using a D1 comp against JWD?  I should hope not.  Which might just leave us with Nope.  Should be similarly backloaded and perhaps the super long pre-sale window will paper over the differences between the backloadedness of horror versus action/adventure.  On the other hand, at this level of sales even 9 more days of pre-sales matters.

 

So maybe a.... decent-ish D1 comp for Nope and maaaaaaaaaaaaybe Fast X, as that started before the trailer launch party.  But on D2 and beyond? 

 

 

[misterpepp]

IMAX early access shows of Civil War will play on April 8.

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So taking a look around town and on the one hand, that it's sold anything at all is probably noteworthy.  On the other hand this level of sales makes any sort of comparison... difficult.

 

Only three movies released within the last two years really come to mind as even vaguely plausible.  

 

Fast X (started at T-*98*), we all know about.    Might be good for first day, but that also had a big trailer event followed by a Super Bowl spot (indeed the whole point of it launching at a frankly stupid length of pre-sales).

 

Only other two are JWD and Nope, both at starting T-42.  Do I need to point out the problems with using a D1 comp against JWD?  I should hope not.  Which might just leave us with Nope.  Should be similarly backloaded and perhaps the super long pre-sale window will paper over the differences between the backloadedness of horror versus action/adventure.  On the other hand, at this level of sales even 9 more days of pre-sales matters.

 

So maybe a.... decent-ish D1 comp for Nope and maaaaaaaaaaaaybe Fast X, as that started before the trailer launch party.  But on D2 and beyond? 

 

 

 

I should also add that there's Oppenheimer which started at T-49, but, maaaaan.  I wouldn't want to throw that into a comp pile unless forced to simply because of all of the Barbenheimer hype that developed mid-run.  Plus, you know, the teeny tiny minor different in ATP.

[keysersoze123]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think that is a fair comp. Fall Guy is a big budget movie with stars, Monkey Man is a small movie that supposed to go direct to streaming and thanks to Peele its even releasing on big screen. There are no stars for big presales. Only reason its even selling anything is due to the buzz from early screening. 

I looked at it nationally

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews - 3442/133910 64354.04 944 shows

Friday - 1995/235283 35145.75 1608 shows

 

The Fall Guy MTC1

Wednesday(5/1) - 969/90635 21348.37 365 shows

Previews - 3420/323065 69285.00 1544 shows

 

Fall Guy is not doing that much better after all nationally in the biggest TC 🙂

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I looked at it nationally

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews - 3442/133910 64354.04 944 shows

Friday - 1995/235283 35145.75 1608 shows

 

The Fall Guy MTC1

Wednesday(5/1) - 969/90635 21348.37 365 shows

Previews - 3420/323065 69285.00 1544 shows

 

Fall Guy is not doing that much better after all nationally in the biggest TC 🙂

 

Did a full check locally and, admittedly the day isn't over yet, but 24 combined tickets sold over Wed/Thr.  On the one hand, that's about 42% of Nope's first day (2.69m — again noting the day isn't over yet).

 

On the other hand, and I want to stress this very much:

 

51 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So taking a look around town and on the one hand, that it's sold anything at all is probably noteworthy.  On the other hand this level of sales makes any sort of comparison... difficult

 

I mean, that it's sold anything at all is noteworthy.  Beyond that?  "Eh."

Edited March 13 by Porthos

[babz06]

Wouldn’t The Fall Guy be more walk ups driven rather than pre sales? 

[cooldude97]

3 minutes ago, leoh said:

Rumors that Andrew Garfield’s Spider will be part of it.

he's not

[Relevation]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Did a full check locally and, admittedly the day isn't over yet, but 24 combined tickets sold over Wed/Thr.  On the one hand, that's about 42% of Nope's first day (2.69m — again noting the day isn't over yet).

Gonna mention that The Fall Guy also has an SXSW premiere ongoing right now with reactions dropping tonight, so it could see a nice bump later in the day 

 

So knowing that I think that comp for The Fall Guy could clear $3M+ by the end of the day, and it’s probably gonna go higher with the longer window and likely much stronger walkups 

[lorddemaxus]

13 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Gonna mention that The Fall Guy also has an SXSW premiere ongoing right now with reactions dropping tonight, so it could see a nice bump later in the day 

 

So knowing that I think that comp for The Fall Guy could clear $3M+ by the end of the day, and it’s probably gonna go higher with the longer window and likely much stronger walkups 

Tbf, as Porthos said, the level of sales are so low locally it doesn't matter this far out. Needs like maybe 2 more ticket sales by the end of the day for the comp to go up to 3 mil+. 

[Minnale101]

Looking at monkey man cast and fall guys may have 20x bigger budget

 

if monkey man can do a even 20% fall guy it will be amazing shape 

[poweranimals]

4 hours ago, leoh said:

I don’t think you understand much about RT score range. 70% range is considered good movie with “positive reviews”, high 60 is average movie/reviews and high 50s to low 60 is mixed reviews.

I'm pretty sure that the general audience doesn't understand the intent of the RT score though. Most people are likely to view it as a grade. 90s is an A, 80s is a B, 70s is a C, 60s is a D, and 59 and below is an F.

[CenterMeOnSam]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire is reminding me of Shazam 2 where you can really feel the apathy towards it in the air, especially following a pair of overperformers. The reviews will likely be of no help as well, given how long they're holding the embargo.

 

I'm confused.

 

I've just recently started reading this thread, but doesn't the tracking (so far) look pretty solid for GBFE?

 

Feel like that's evidence against the idea of apathy? Unless I'm completely misreading these tracking posts?

[lorddemaxus]

On 2/26/2024 at 11:46 AM, misterpepp said:

My reliable go-to guy says Interstellar will be getting a re-release this summer (although could be as late as September), with at least IMAX on board.

 

Additional aside, you can now buy concessions on Fandango starting today.

This could work out now that Venom 2 has moved out of the November first week slot.

[leoh]

18 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

I'm confused.

 

I've just recently started reading this thread, but doesn't the tracking (so far) look pretty solid for GBFE?

 

Feel like that's evidence against the idea of apathy? Unless I'm completely misreading these tracking posts?

 

yes, most of trackers are reporting good pre sales for Ghostbusters.

 

Yet some people don’t like it and then will ignore what trackers are reporting.

 

I mean, this is pretty normal on internet and is not different here lol

 

Welcome   

 

 

 

 

[jeffthehat]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I looked at it nationally

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews - 3442/133910 64354.04 944 shows

Friday - 1995/235283 35145.75 1608 shows

 

The Fall Guy MTC1

Wednesday(5/1) - 969/90635 21348.37 365 shows

Previews - 3420/323065 69285.00 1544 shows

 

Fall Guy is not doing that much better after all nationally in the biggest TC 🙂

Noice. Indiana results probably just a function of how many theaters have posted showtimes. They’re bad comps like you said any way. 

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This could work out now that Venom 2 has moved out of the November first week slot.

Venom 3*

[Unfitclock]

Anybody here track the Channing Tatum movie dog?