The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[SpiderByte]

25 minutes ago, dallas said:

With Dune 2 and now GxK doing really well, it's very unfortunate for WB to have lost Legendary to Sony. They still have a ton of big money franchises but losing the Monsterverse and now Dune at the peak of its popularity is a huge blow. 

Wait, do they not still get the sequels for the stuff they've already made with them?

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Theater counts: Kung Fu Panda dethrones Dune to become the new widest release (The Numbers)

After spending its first two weeks as the widest release in North America, Dune: Part Two slips into the second place spot this week, dropping 227 locations, while still playing in a solid 3,847 cinemas. Taking its place this week is last week’s newcomer , Kung Fu Panda 4, which increases its viewing opportunities by adding 32 theaters for a total of 4,067 locations. 

Theater Counts for March 15

Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
Kung Fu Panda 4	Universal Pictures	4,067	4,035	+32
Dune: Part Two	Warner Bros.	3,847	4,074	-227
Imaginary	Lionsgate	3,118	3,118
Arthur The King	Lionsgate	3,003		New
Cabrini	Angel Studios	2,850	2,840	+10
Bob Marley: One Love	Paramount Pictures	2,272	2,764	-492
Ordinary Angels	Lionsgate	1,753	2,323	-570
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	1,230	642	+588
The American Society of Magical Negroes	Focus Features	1,147		New
Madame Web	Sony Pictures	1,058	2,015	-957
One Life	Bleecker Street	983		New

  Love Lies Bleeding theater count was not listed. Does anyone know roughly how many theaters it's expanding into this week? In my region (which has more than 3 million people), it's not opening widely, more on par with American Society and One Life. Is that the case more broadly?   Remainder of list at: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/256450830-Theater-counts-Kung-Fu-Panda-dethrones-Dune-to-become-the-new-widest-release  

[DAJK]

Authur the King isn’t playing ANYWHERE on Vancouver Island! Any chance the studio is skipping a Canadian release?

[leoh]

28 minutes ago, TMP said:

The Sony deal doesn't include future Monsterverse or Dune movies; those will still be at WB

of course Sony would have interest in Legendary without their only two major franchises lol

 

I have to remember, Legendary was the one that was searching for a new partner after WB has sent their movies to Max without an exclusive theatrical window during the pandemics. So what else Legendary has that could make Sony get into an agreement with them?
 

Anyways, we will know in the near future I guess… 

[misterpepp]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Authur the King isn’t playing ANYWHERE on Vancouver Island! Any chance the studio is skipping a Canadian release?

 

Hasn't Lionsgate been skipping Canadian releases for a bunch of their titles recently? I remember this making news when they skipped a release in Canada for Moonfall.

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/10/2024 at 1:45 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	106	29	354	19591	1.81

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	0	4.38
MTC1:		86	17	62.77
Marcus:		11	2	8.03
Alamo:		7	2	5.11
Other chains:		33	12	24.09

 

Comps:

1.25x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.63 Million

1.46x Wonka: $5.12 Million

0.82x BoSS: $4.73 Million

0.69x TMNT (w/ EA): $3.78 Million

2.07x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $6.42 Million

0.4x Indy 5: $2.9 Million

 

Average: $4.76 Million

 

Numbers pulled earlier than usual because of an Oscars watch party, and this should be the bottom of the U curve, but it's a bad update nonetheless. Rolling with these comps from now on, a bit all over the place but I'm really not sure how this is going to behave from here.

 

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	110	89	443	20321	2.18

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		344	63	77.65
MTC1:		231	43	52.14
Marcus:		45	5	10.16
Alamo:		79	16	17.83
Other chains:		88	25	19.86

 

Comps:

1.29x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.81 Million

1.48x Wonka: $5.19 Million

0.62x BoSS: $3.54 Million

0.64x TMNT (w/ EA): $3.51 Million

1.85x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $5.72 Million

0.45x Indy 5: $3.23 Million

 

Average: $4.5 Million

 

3 comps pulling it to the 3 level, 3 comps pulling it to the 5 level, and average spits out a clean 4.5. Not really sure if this is going to behave more like the former or the latter, so I'll keep all my comps (sans TMNT, which I didn't track after T-7) and rely on the average, which I don't love but oh wellllllllll

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Several showings still listed as "sold-out" so sales will be depressed for now

 

@Brainbug trying to set expectations by buying out a bunch of Florida showtimes. 

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (T-15, Day 1):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	289	289	14652	1.97

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		239	239	82.7
MTC1:		201	201	69.55
Marcus:		33	33	11.42
Alamo:		24	24	8.3
Other chains:		31	31	10.73

 

Day 1 Comp:

1.67x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: ??

 

T-15 Comp (also a Day 1 comp):

1.51x Hunger Games BoSS: $8.65 Million

 

Really the only appropriate comps I have right now, but really great start here. Also really healthy non-MTC1 % right off the gate. We'll see how we go from here but very promising numbers!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	63	352	14652	2.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		286	47	81.25
MTC1:		233	32	66.19
Marcus:		43	10	12.22
Alamo:		30	6	8.52
Other chains:		46	15	13.07

 

T-14 Comps (many of these had way longer windows and will be going up as a result; BoSS is the exception) :

1.08x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: ????

1.38x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.19 Million

1.44x Hunger Games BoSS: $8.3 Million

0.43x FNAF: $4.43 Million

0.6x MI7 (TUE): $4.2 Million

0.47x Indy 5: $3.41 Million

 

Not super helpful other than that BoSS comp, which did go down, though that movie was hot as hell here throughout its whole pre-sales run so methinks it won't be as useful as it might be in other markets.

Edited March 15 by abracadabra1998

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/11/2024 at 10:14 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Monkey Man (Day 1, T-24):

Day: T-24	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	33	29	29	3961	0.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		16	16	55.17
MTC1:		19	19	65.52
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		10	10	34.48
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.74x Argylle: $1.26 Million

0.6x Napoleon: $1.81 Million

0.39x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $1.76 Million

 

Argylle might be the best comp here, as it has the exact same sales window, it's not an IP, it might overperform with the urban cinephiles that my market has a lot of, etc. etc. Not a bad Day 1 for an original R-rated action movie, but we shall see where it goes from here

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	33	48	77	3961	1.94

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		45	29	58.44
MTC1:		58	39	75.32
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		19	9	24.68
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

1.6x Argylle: $2.73 Million

0.3x KoFM: $770k

 

I will add Napoleon and Beekeeper as comps later in the run. Good numbers but it's quite literally all Alamo and MTC1 sales and I am certainly overindexing

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/12/2024 at 10:16 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-51, Day 1):

Day: T-51, T-50	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	51	36	36	9691	0.37
Sunday May 1 EA: 13 theaters	16	34	34	3764	0.9
TOTALS:	67	70	70	13455	0.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		33	33	91.67
MTC1:		36	36	100
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

*Chart for Thursday previews only

 

Day 1 Comps (versus all sales, including EA):

1.79x Argylle: $3.05 Million

0.95x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.26 Million

1.49x Wonka: $5.21 Million

0.35x FNAF: $3.64 Million

1.46x Napoleon: $4.38 Million

2.41x The Monkey Man

 

I know my comps are complete ass, but wanted to illustrate that this had a really solid start here. MTC1 driving all Thursday sales and Alamo driving around 90% of EA, so heads up: this market might overperform on Day 1 against other Alamo-less markets. 

 

I will update this on Thursday, then do weekly updates from then on until T-35, in which I will start my usual bi-weekly updates. 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-49):

Day: T-49, T-48	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	51	10	46	9691	0.47
Sunday May 1 EA: 13 theaters	16	13	47	3764	1.25
TOTALS:	67	23	93	13455	0.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		43	10	93.48
MTC1:		46	10	100
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comp: 0.78x The Color Purple: $11.94 Million

 

$100 Million OW confirmed!*

 

 

 

 

 

 

*THIS IS A JOKE REDDITORS!

[leoh]

38 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-49):

Day: T-49, T-48	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	51	10	46	9691	0.47
Sunday May 1 EA: 13 theaters	16	13	47	3764	1.25
TOTALS:	67	23	93	13455	0.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		43	10	93.48
MTC1:		46	10	100
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comp: 0.78x The Color Purple: $11.94 Million

 

$100 Million OW confirmed!*

 

 

 

 

 

 

*THIS IS A JOKE REDDITORS!

 

What if you’re right?… 😏

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-8) - 24336/534706 426650.46 2749 shows +1076

Friday - 16240/609267 277437.48 3212 shows +1175

 

it increased in pace but not enough to hit afterlife number by T-4.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 25666/536002 448774.56 2754 shows +1330

Friday - 17356/610150 295977.12 3216 shows +1156

 

Friday pace went down a bit and I would have thought by this point Friday would be way higher to have good IM. 

[Maaatt]

3 hours ago, dallas said:

With Dune 2 and now GxK doing really well, it's very unfortunate for WB to have lost Legendary to Sony. They still have a ton of big money franchises but losing the Monsterverse and now Dune at the peak of its popularity is a huge blow. 

Warner Brothers retained distribution rights to its Legendary franchises, both Dune and Godzilla/Monsterverse. I’m gonna assume they also retained similar co-financing agreements for these movies similar to what they had under the prior output deal too(they contributed something like 20% or 25% to the cost of the production in addition to handling distribution) .. though I am not positive on that part.

[charlie Jatinder]

Arthur MiniTC2 

Previews - 2381/21657 (101 showings) $25K

 

Normally this would mean $1.25M previews but MiniTC2 is gonna over index due to Spring Break. I guess $750K+ shall happen, may be $800-900K on high end.

 

FRI sales are good, can think of $4M True FRI. Weekend may be 13-15M.

Edited March 15 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

On 3/13/2024 at 10:05 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Previews - 18303/550844 363567.31 2875 shows

 

I guessed it almost on point earlier today 🙂 Its quite good. 80% of Dune. But that wont be a good comp as this will be more backloaded than Dune. I am expecting 9ish previews and 60-65m OW. I will update Friday later. 

 

 

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Friday - 13577/825514 256602.85 4324 shows

 

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-14) - 21750/554034 430218.40 2886 shows +3447

Friday - 16582/832456 312358.64 4351 shows +3005

 

Really good pace for Day 2. It may not have much of a stead state PS run considering such a short cycle. I wonder what would be the floor. 

[leoh]

25 minutes ago, Maaatt said:

Warner Brothers retained distribution rights to its Legendary franchises, both Dune and Godzilla/Monsterverse. I’m gonna assume they also retained similar co-financing agreements for these movies similar to what they had under the prior output deal too(they contributed something like 20% or 25% to the cost of the production in addition to handling distribution) .. though I am not positive on that part.

“Warner Brothers retained distribution rights to its Legendary franchises, both Dune and Godzilla/Monsterverse.”

 

this is factually wrong, Dune and Monster-Verse are not WB franchises, they are 100% Legendary’s property. However, WB has a word to say about the movies they had already financed. As you well mentioned, WB co-finances around 20-25% and as such they get the same share from net box office. So in 2022 when they signed with Sony they couldn’t have split Dune 2 and current GxK from WB because WB had already financed their production.

 

Of course we are not 100% sure who will release the next sequels that aren’t in production yet. However, why Sony would accept to make a deal with Legendary that wouldn’t include the only two major Legendary franchises? Legendary left WB because they never accepted the straight to streaming releases of Dune 1 and 2021 GxK. Why would they let WB carry on distributing those franchise since both are the two main reasons that made them leave WB? By the way, the monster-verse series are already being produced outside WB, by Netflix and Apple TV+ since 2022.

[leoh]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Arthur MiniTC2 

Previews - 2381/21657 (101 showings) $25K

 

Normally this would mean $1.25M previews but MiniTC2 is gonna over index due to Spring Break. I guess $750K+ shall happen, may be $800-900K on high end.

 

FRI sales are good, can think of $4M True FRI. Weekend may be 13-15M.

not that bad then 

[NoobSaibot]

25 minutes ago, leoh said:

“Warner Brothers retained distribution rights to its Legendary franchises, both Dune and Godzilla/Monsterverse.”

 

this is factually wrong, Dune and Monster-Verse are not WB franchises, they are 100% Legendary’s property. However, WB has a word to say about the movies they had already financed. As you well mentioned, WB co-finances around 20-25% and as such they get the same share from net box office. So in 2022 when they signed with Sony they couldn’t have split Dune 2 and current GxK from WB because WB had already financed their production.

 

Of course we are not 100% sure who will release the next sequels that aren’t in production yet. However, why Sony would accept to make a deal with Legendary that wouldn’t include the only two major Legendary franchises? Legendary left WB because they never accepted the straight to streaming releases of Dune 1 and 2021 GxK. Why would they let WB carry on distributing those franchise since both are the two main reasons that made them leave WB? By the way, the monster-verse series are already being produced outside WB, by Netflix and Apple TV+ since 2022.

 

I would probably argue that Dune AND Godzilla are IP's that likely have contractual ties with WB, but I'm not sure if that's even a proper argument to be made.

 

All I know is that when Legendary's deal with Warner Bros. ended after Godzilla's release in 2014, it still had ties to the studio even with Kong: Skull Island. Legendary had a deal with Universal during that period despite that and it ended in 2019. If Legendary decides to finance another Godzilla/Kong feature, one should reasonably expect it to be distributed by Warner Bros. and not Sony.

 

That being said, this conversation is probably better off in the Godzilla x Kong thread and not here.

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Godzilla * Kong MiniTC2 T-15 Days

Previews - 425/46795 (179 showings)

 

Comps

1.04x John Wick 4 first day - $9.3M

1.06x Black Adam first day - $8M (inf. adj. $8.5M+)

 

Using it only because it also started T-15 Days

1.32x Hunger Games: BOSS first day - $7.6M

 

3.13x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire first day

1.08x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire at same time (7 days of sales)

Godzilla * Kong MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Previews - 682/48046 (182 showings)

 

Comps

1.10x John Wick 4 2 days - $9.8M

1.28x Black Adam 2 days - $9.7M (inf. adj. $10.3M+)

1.46x Hunger Games: BOSS 2 days - $8.4M

 

3.39x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire 2 days

1.59x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire at same time (8 days of sales)

 

Big Day 2 but kind of inflated by late start to sales for IMAX shows. Basically Day 1 was a bit deflated. Real value probably 475 Day 1 and 207 Day 2 sales.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/11/2024 at 2:50 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MiniTC2 T-11 Days

 

Thursday - 506/68661 (237 showings)

 

Comps

1.43x Wonka - $5M

1.64x Haunted Mansion - $5.1M

0.99x Shazam - $3.3M

0.30x Indiana Jones - $2.2M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MiniTC2 T-6 Days

 

Thursday - 790/70203 (246 showings)

 

Comps

1.53x Wonka - $5.35M

2.02x Haunted Mansion - $6.3M

1.18x Shazam - $4M

0.37x Indiana Jones - $2.7M

 

Two good days after a few mid days.