The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Speaking of re-releases, has anyone been tracking the Spider-Man ones? Because some theaters are already adding extra shows for the 2002 movie since the initial ones are already pretty much full (the second Tobey movie also selling great too). Imagine they'll give it more days/showtimes if they are unable to meet the demand due to capacity issues.

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

04/04/24

Monkey Man - 47 tickets sold

The First Omen - 13 tickets sold 

 

COMPS

Monkey Man

1.02x of The Beekeeper ($2.45M)*

0.90x of Argylle ($1.54M)

AVERAGE: $2.00M

 

The First Omen

0.77x of Imaginary ($554K)

1.00x of Immaculate (previews not reported here, comped with FRI+previews gets me $2.03M)

AVERAGE (Thu): $554K

 

A lot of my comps here are messed up by weird studio reporting. Beekeeper pure THU (what I tracked for it) wasn’t reported, so that $2.45M comp includes EA and THU, making it less than representative. And Immaculate THU just wasn’t reported at all, so I can’t use the comp. Overall, looks like First Omen underindexed here, and Monkey Man played about par. Predicting ~$20M OW for Monkey Man, and $7-8M for The First Omen.

[keysersoze123]

On 4/2/2024 at 8:30 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 4198/9257 95079.02 29 shows 

Previews(T-9) - 13879/335186 281098.91 1653 shows +2039

Friday - 10048/555658 198706.00 2674 shows +1715

 

Definitely moving along at this point. 2.5m ish preview at this point. 20m+ OW is in play. 

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 4389/9257 99053.61 29 shows

Previews(T-8) - 15140/335883 305793.02 1655 shows +1261

Friday - 11010/556174 217388.84 2674 shows +1062

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 4/2/2024 at 9:25 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 18409/195085 330037.91 1399 shows +2613

Friday - 15209/429512 264384.69 2997 shows +3085

 

Another movie that slowed down after solid boost on Monday 🙂

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 22232/196626 394375.72 1416 shows +3823 

Friday - 19324/436224 332178.78 3035 shows +4115

 

Dont thing its going to do enough to hit 2m previews now. Probably around 1.5-1.7m previews. but weekend has tons more shows and so it should still hit low teens OW. 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 22232/196626 394375.72 1416 shows +3823 

Friday - 19324/436224 332178.78 3035 shows +4115

 

Dont thing its going to do enough to hit 2m previews now. Probably around 1.5-1.7m previews. but weekend has tons more shows and so it should still hit low teens OW. 

Wonder how high MTC1 ratio be because sales are low elsewhere.

[Flopped]

Heard Omen's actual budget after reshoots is well above 30M

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

Heard Omen's actual budget after reshoots is well above 30M

Low 30’s for The First Omen according to Deadline. 
 

Monkey Man’s budget was $10m, but Netflix paid $30m for it in 2021, not sure how much Universal paid for it. 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-2, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 114

New Sales : 21

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.4

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 81/5

Late Evening: 33/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 73/8

Dolby: 41/2

 

Comps

0.312x HG: BoSS for $1.8M

0.489x Aquaman 2 for $2.2M

0.107x Dune 2 for $1.1M

Average: $1.7M

 

Okay day. It had better jumps on the weekend. I was hoping it would return to that, but it's still stsyig solid. Hopefully it has good walk ups over the next 36 hours or so.

 

 

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 177

New Sales : 63

Growth: 55%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 17.7

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 111/5

Late Evening: 66/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 117/8

Dolby: 60/2

 

Comps

0.420x HG: BoSS for $2.4M

0.585x Aquaman 2 for $2.5M

0.147x Dune 2 for $1.5M

Average: $2.1M

 

A really good day. Big increase leading to a rise against comps. I think it speaks positively about the prospect of good walkups over the course of the day.

 

On the whole dialogue about whether the Indian diaspora will be drawn to this film, I think it's making an impact, but just giving it a slight boost more than anything.

 

Hopefully this ends up closer to $2M than $1.5M (or lower).

[Porthos]

Hmmmmm......

 

Out of idle curiosity, what do we all think of using Nope as a comp for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (please, no jokes).

 

That one had an even longer pre-sale window and while horror is gonna be more backloaded the Peele name factor did have a very small amount of frontloading.  And as something fairly close to a monster movie, or at least closer to the Jurassic World/RotB end of things, KPotA should be more backloaded than a typical sequel fan property...

 

Well...  

 

Let's just say I took a look around town just now and it's exactly five tickets behind Nope at T-36 (KPotA: 105 tickets sold | Nope: 111 tickets sold).  Nope had been on sale for four more days as well.

 

Do think the extra four days of sales will cripple any usefulness out of a JWD comp, though that might normalize somewhat quickly.  Plus PLF ONLY is, pardon the phrase, throwing a bit of a monkey wrench into things.  And Nope is literally the best case scenario for something I have this far out.

 

Still...

 

Want to get folks thoughts on what might be a good comp as I have indeed been tracking this on the side just in case (though not a full track — at least not yet).

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Hmmmmm......

 

Out of idle curiosity, what do we all think of using Nope as a comp for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (please, no jokes).

 

That one had an even longer pre-sale window and while horror is gonna be more backloaded the Peele name factor did have a very small amount of frontloading.  And as something fairly close to a monster movie, or at least closer to the Jurassic World/RotB end of things, KPotA should be more backloaded than a typical sequel fan property...

 

Well...  

 

Let's just say I took a look around town just now and it's exactly five tickets behind Nope at T-36 (KPotA: 105 tickets sold | Nope: 111 tickets sold).  Nope had been on sale for four more days as well.

 

Do think the extra four days of sales will cripple any usefulness out of a JWD comp, though that might normalize somewhat quickly.  Plus PLF ONLY is, pardon the phrase, throwing a bit of a monkey wrench into things.  And Nope is literally the best case scenario for something I have this far out.

 

Still...

 

Want to get folks thoughts on what might be a good comp as I have indeed been tracking this on the side just in case (though not a full track — at least not yet).

On 4/1/2024 at 10:33 PM, Relevation said:

Since it's a longer sales window, and from what I can see it's just PLFs, I would think Oppenheimer could actually work as a comp here if you have it. Otherwise I'd also throw out Dune since it was also a decently long-ish window and had EA, plus major PLF skew.

 

[MightyDargon]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 4389/9257 99053.61 29 shows

Previews(T-8) - 15140/335883 305793.02 1655 shows +1261

Friday - 11010/556174 217388.84 2674 shows +1062

 

 

Does this still indicate 2.5mil previews?

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-1	Jax	5	15	1	13	1,815	0.72%
		Phx	6	13	8	34	1,850	1.84%
		Ral	8	16	3	17	1,702	1.00%
	Total		19	44	12	64	5,367	1.19%
Monkey Man	T-1	Jax	6	25	5	65	3,274	1.99%
		Phx	6	19	33	117	2,035	5.75%
		Ral	8	23	10	77	2,424	3.18%
	Total		20	67	48	259	7,733	3.35%

 

Monkey Man T-1 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.363x (1.54m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .62x (1.24m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .45x (1.4m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.016x (1.18m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .445x (1.37m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .259x (1.22m)

 - Green Knight - 1.116x (888k)

 - Beast - 1.56x (1.48m)

 - 65 - 1.183x (1.45m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.28m

 

Worse than all comps yesterday.  Should be under 1.5m for previews

 

First Omen T-1 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .26x (324k)

 - Last Voyage - .37x (277k)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - .736x (752k)

 - Forever Purge - .474x (668k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .427x (543k)

 - Immaculate - .914x (503k)

 - Antlers - .877x (344k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 532k

 

The only two horror movies I've tracked with fewer sales by T-1 are Night House (260k) and Umma (unreported).  It's even behind Late Night with the Devil (unreported). 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-0	Jax	5	15	13	26	1,815	1.43%
		Phx	6	13	11	45	1,850	2.43%
		Ral	8	16	19	36	1,702	2.12%
	Total		19	44	43	107	5,367	1.99%
Monkey Man	T-0	Jax	6	25	26	91	3,274	2.78%
		Phx	6	19	66	183	2,035	8.99%
		Ral	8	23	37	114	2,424	4.70%
	Total		20	67	129	388	7,733	5.02%

 

Monkey Man T-0 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.459x (1.64m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .654x (1.31m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .48x (1.49m)

 - Strays - 1.702x (1.4m)

 - Black Phone - .574x (1.53m)

 - Bullet Train - .372x (1.045m)

 - Green Knight - 1.093x (869k)

 - Beast - 1.68x (1.59m)

 - 65 - 1.087x (1.33m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.37m

Growth model forecast - 1.16m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Monkey Man	147.13%	37.58%	25.51%	49.81%
Violent Night	133.33%	-	-	40.00%
Cocaine Bear	144.03%	32.92%	9.82%	41.87%
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%
Strays	121.36%	32.04%	20.00%	49.02%
Black Phone	-	-	26.67%	57.58%
Bullet Train	140.55%	26.50%	24.45%	40.89%
The Green Knight	308.05%	42.53%	54.00%	53.02%
Beast	192.41%	37.97%	46.94%	39.16%
65	210.43%	40.00%	-	63.01%

 

I removed EA from comps and switched to previews only.  +49.8% is right in line with comps.  I think this will likely be reported as 1.5m, but may come up short.  

 

First Omen T-0 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .279x (348k)

 - Last Voyage - .421x (316k)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - .626x (640k)

 - Forever Purge - .482x (679k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .433x (551k)

 - Immaculate - 1.019x (560k)

 - Antlers - .907x (356k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 507k

Growth model forecast - 390k

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
First Omen	224.24%	33.33%	-	67.19%
Talk to Me	275.49%	47.06%	42.59%	55.69%
Last Voyage	146.60%	46.60%	52.73%	46.82%
Dont Breathe 2	470.00%	40.00%	44.44%	96.55%
The Forever Purge	241.54%	78.46%	-	64.44%
Escape Room 2	233.78%	60.81%	51.72%	64.67%
Immaculate	238.71%	77.42%	-	50.00%
Antlers	195.00%	-	-	61.64%

 

Pretty good day yesterday to make up for veryy slow start.  Daily and 3-day are tracking close to Forever Purge and Escape Room 2 which are among the higher end of the range.  I think there's still hope for 700k, but it'll need a great day today.  For now I think 600k is a safer bet.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-8	Jax	6	34	2	30	6,236	0.48%
		Phx	6	20	2	53	4,163	1.27%
		Ral	8	19	5	45	2,513	1.79%
	Total		20	73	9	128	12,912	0.99%
Suga	T-7	Jax	3	7	6	134	1,574	8.51%
		Phx	4	5	1	182	992	18.35%
		Ral	5	6	1	140	846	16.55%
	Total		12	18	8	456	3,412	13.36%

 

Civil War T-8 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .168x (1.32m)

 - Elvis - .403x (1.56m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .656x (2.49m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-7 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - missed

 - One Piece - .931x (1.62m)

 - Left Behind - 2.698x (1.94m)

 - Dragon Ball - .522x (2.3m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .405x (2.02m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-7	Jax	6	34	17	47	6,236	0.75%
		Phx	6	20	5	58	4,163	1.39%
		Ral	8	19	13	58	2,513	2.31%
	Total		20	73	35	163	12,912	1.26%
Suga	T-6	Jax	3	7	2	136	1,574	8.64%
		Phx	4	5	1	183	992	18.45%
		Ral	5	6	6	146	846	17.26%
	Total		12	18	9	465	3,412	13.63%

 

Civil War T-7 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .185x (1.46m)

 - Elvis - .467x (1.81m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .738x (2.8m)

 - Free Guy - 1.02x (2.33m)

 - M:I 7 - .148x (1.53m)

 - Meg 2 - 2.3x (7.79m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-6 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - missed

 - One Piece - .919x (1.6m)

 - Left Behind - 2.422x (1.74m)

 - Dragon Ball - .488x (2.15m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .388x (1.93m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spy x Family	T-15	Jax	5	18	9	39	1,938	2.01%
		Phx	6	17	0	31	3,774	0.82%
		Ral	6	17	0	26	1,510	1.72%
	Total		17	52	9	96	7,222	1.33%

 

T-15 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .164x (722k)

 - JJK:0 - .179x (529k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spy x Family	T-14	Jax	5	18	8	47	1,938	2.43%
		Phx	6	17	7	38	3,774	1.01%
		Ral	7	19	5	31	1,700	1.82%
	Total		18	54	20	116	7,412	1.57%

 

T-14 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .189x (832k)

 - JJK:0 - .2x (590k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/29/2024 at 8:00 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy (EA)	T-33	Jax	5	10	1	3	2,007	0.15%
		Phx	1	2	1	2	618	0.32%
		Ral	2	2	0	7	412	1.70%
	Total		8	14	2	12	3,037	0.40%
The Fall Guy	T-34	Jax	5	34	3	12	5,746	0.21%
		Phx	6	17	10	24	3,404	0.71%
		Ral	8	34	8	35	5,150	0.68%
	Total		19	85	21	71	14,300	0.50%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-34 comps

- Nope - .561x (3.01m)

 - Jurassic World 3 (Total) - .056x (1.02m)

 - Oppenheimer - .211x (1.78m)

 

*New sales since T-42

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-28	Jax	5	34	2	15	5,746	0.26%
		Phx	6	17	3	28	3,404	0.82%
		Ral	8	34	2	37	5,150	0.72%
	Total		19	85	7	80	14,300	0.56%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-27	Jax	5	10	0	4	2,007	0.20%
		Phx	1	2	0	8	618	1.29%
		Ral	2	2	0	10	412	2.43%
	Total		8	14	0	22	3,037	0.72%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-28 adjusted comps

 - Nope - .586x (3.15m)

 - Oppenheimer - .19x (1.6m)

 - Exorcist 6 - 2.17x (5.07m)

 - Scream VI - .47x (2.36m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.091x (4.48m)

 

*Just throwing everything I have out there

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ungentlemanly	T-14	Jax	5	11	3	3	1,214	0.25%
		Phx	6	10	9	9	1,060	0.85%
		Ral	5	8	1	1	1,018	0.10%
	Total		16	29	13	13	3,292	0.39%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-9	Jax	2	3	86	86	320	26.88%
		Phx	3	3	44	44	405	10.86%
		Ral	3	3	79	79	356	22.19%
	Total		8	9	209	209	1,081	19.33%

 

Day 1 adjusted comps

 - MI:7 (Total) - .847x (6.11m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .738x (3.63m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - .953x (3.44m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.078x (3.89m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .59x (4.35m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 2.494x

 

Solid first day for EA sales.  With the shows being on Saturday I think that'll give it a great boost and still allow time for preview sales to pick up after.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-36	Jax	5	25	-1	20	4,936	0.41%
		Phx	1	6	4	31	1,854	1.67%
		Ral	2	6	3	12	1,236	0.97%
	Total		8	37	6	63	8,026	0.78%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-35	Jax	5	9	4	19	1,802	1.05%
		Phx	1	2	2	12	618	1.94%
		Ral	2	2	3	10	412	2.43%
	Total		8	13	9	41	2,832	1.45%

 

Day 2 comps

 - Godzilla x Kong - .239x (2.2m)

 - F9 - .306x (2.17m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .283x (1.58m)
 - Ghostbusters FE - .452x (1.99m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - .357x (1.48m)

 - Civil War - 1.962x

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.364x

 

Not a great start, but very far out and only PLF tickets are on sale so far.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-35	Jax	5	25	1	21	4,936	0.43%
		Phx	1	6	3	34	1,854	1.83%
		Ral	2	6	0	12	1,236	0.97%
	Total		8	37	4	67	8,026	0.83%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-34	Jax	5	9	2	21	1,802	1.17%
		Phx	1	2	1	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	2	12	412	2.91%
	Total		8	13	5	46	2,832	1.62%

 

T-35 adjusted comps

 - Nope - .769x (5.04m)

 - Oppenheimer - .302x (3.11m)

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ungentlemanly	T-14	Jax	5	11	3	3	1,214	0.25%
		Phx	6	10	9	9	1,060	0.85%
		Ral	5	8	1	1	1,018	0.10%
	Total		16	29	13	13	3,292	0.39%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-9	Jax	2	3	86	86	320	26.88%
		Phx	3	3	44	44	405	10.86%
		Ral	3	3	79	79	356	22.19%
	Total		8	9	209	209	1,081	19.33%

 

Day 1 adjusted comps

 - MI:7 (Total) - .847x (6.11m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .738x (3.63m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - .953x (3.44m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.078x (3.89m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .59x (4.35m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 2.494x

 

Solid first day for EA sales.  With the shows being on Saturday I think that'll give it a great boost and still allow time for preview sales to pick up after.

Would suggest ignore EA for comps. Too far out and too different from actual weekend sales.

[katnisscinnaplex]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Would suggest ignore EA for comps. Too far out and too different from actual weekend sales.

Then we get back into the issue of previews comps not being accurate since EA is taking away all early sales

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

Does this still indicate 2.5mil previews?

I think so. does not have to do anything crazy to hit that number. 200K in early shows and another 2.3m+ in previews.