The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

The First Omen, counted today for tomorrow had 120 sold tickets.

Up very modest 14% since yesterday (so at least in my theaters the first reactions did not help).

 

Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 176 sold tickets = 500k.

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 140 = 550k.

M3gan (2.75M) had 450 = 750k.

Demeter (750k) had 217 = 400k.

Lisa Frankenstein (700k) had 209 = 400k.

And Barbarian (850k) had 222 = 450k.

Average: 500k.

 

That clearly went into the wrong direction. Maybe the trailer is too dark or strange, Idk. 

 

Friday presales soon (they're a bit better) and also Monkey Man's Thursday and Friday presales (still pretty strong).

 

[misterpepp]

Garfield on sale April 24

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Abigail T-16: 28.25%

Challengers T-23: 22.2%

It Ends with Us T-79: 16.43%

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-121: 15.53%

The Fire Inside T-128: 11.35%

Smile 2 T-198: 22.99%

 

The First Omen T-2: 38.11% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 42% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

 

Monkey Man T-2: 33.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

 

Tarot T-30: 24.59% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 62% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-37: 56.22% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 95% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 40M, 79% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 53% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 32% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 83% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

[Eric S'ennui]

32 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Surprised you didn't call Dune 2 a nostalgic toy commercial.

Oh don't worry hon, I think it counts. Just didn't have the opportunity to say it until now lol

[AJG]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That had oscar buzz which was huge so it did well but all other Dev Patel films are non openers in India or Indian diaspora in US.

 

From my experience: British-Indians in the UK tend to watch Indian movies and TV shows (I think i saw more posters for LEO than i did for Aquaman 2 in south London).

British content that stars Indians only tend to do well with them when they are tied to the experience of being Indian in Britain (which I don't beleive Monkey Man is).

Edited April 3 by AJG

[vafrow]

As part of the Indian diaspora in Canada, I'm excited for Monkey Man, but I'm not a good proxy. To build on @AJGpoint, things about Indians in Western culture are always intriguing to me. I also do gravitate to south Asians succeeding in Hollywood, and while it's not an overwhelming impact with most people, I do think there's a box office impact.

 

Monkey Man seems to be performing well around me which has a higher South Asian population. Marvels overindexed in my sample back in the fall. It's just not blowing the roof off of comps, the way an Indian film does around here compared to North American totals (my wife saw Crew last Thursday in a packed theatre for example).

 

I too would have loved it if we saw a bigger breakout here. But, revenge actioners like this are inherently limited, and this is being sold exclusively on Dev Patels name recognition, and his following is certainly niche.

 

But outside of the specific reasons I'm excited for the film, if this can scratch out a decent run, it's a win for taking content intended for streaming and getting it to theatres.

 

[ringedmortality]

2 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Oh don't worry hon, I think it counts. Just didn't have the opportunity to say it until now lol

 

And that's why everyone gets annoyed with you

[el sid]

The First Omen, counted today for Friday, had152 sold tickets.

Up mediocre 31% since yesterday.

 

Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Firefighter had 115 sold tickets = 1.6M true Friday.

The Invitation had 167 = 1.65M.

Prey for the Devil had 207 = 1.55M.

The Nun 2 had 833 = 1.8M.

M3gan had 506 = 2.7M.

Exorcist 2 had 1.115 = 1.25M.

Demeter had 232 = 1.2M.

Barbarian had 140 = 3.35M.

Old had 262 = 3.1M.

 

Average: 2M true Friday.

 

Hard for me to see 10-15M OW at the moment.

[el sid]

Monkey Man, counted today for tomorrow, had nice 933 sold tickets (with showtimes in 7 theaters). Best sales in the AMCs in San Francisco (327) and LA (312). Ok sales in the action-affine AMC in NY (115) so I also doubt that it will have the same walk-ups as e.g. The Beekeeper. Doing quite fine in the AMC in Florida (also 115 sold tickets).

 

Up so-so 32% since Monday.

Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): BT (4.6M from previews) had 1.238 = 3.45M.

Expendables 4 (750k) had 210 = 3.3M.

Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062 = 3.25M.

Argylle (1.7M) had 847 = 1.85M.

And Dungeons & Dragons (4.1M Thursday only) had 925 sold tickets = 4.1M.

Average: 3.2M. 

 

So as expected it lost a little bit in the comps and I think the same will happen till tomorrow but still, with halfway decent walk-ups (and I doubt that it will have worse walk-ups than e.g. Argylle) it should at least reach 2M. Let's see how big its jump till tomorrow is. E.g. Argylle jumped by 18% which is doable.

 

 

Edited April 3 by el sid

[el sid]

Monkey Man, counted today for Friday, had decent 807 sold tickets (of course with showtimes in all of "my" 7 theaters). Best sales in the AMCs in LA (296), San Francisco (243) and NY (155 - doing better than on Thursday = not frontloaded in that theater). 

 

Comps (all counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): BT had 1.000 sold tickets = 6.4M true Friday.

Expendables 4 (2.35M) had 202 = 9.4M.

D&D had 984 = 7.9M.

And Uncharted had 982 sold tickets = 9.6M.

Average: 8.3M true Friday.

 

Almost too good, no? Overall I have trust in my numbers, but @keysersoze123 and @charlie Jatinder are way more pessimistic here and I have even more trust in what they say ;). And I'm biased because I like that kind of films and the trailers IMO look very good. But I doubt that MM will have worse walk-ups than Argylle or Expendables 4. 

So I'll wait till tomorrow and then add an OW number. All I can say at the moment is that MM is doing fine in my theaters.

 

Edited April 3 by el sid

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/2/2024 at 7:40 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Monkey Man

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
338	1491	69851	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

241

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.377x) of Night Swim $2.07M  

(0.438x) of Mean Girls $1.45M  

Comps average: $1.76M 

 

Night swim is the more appropriate comp here, so $2M does seem likely 

FLORIDA 

 

Monkey Man

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
381	1731	78329	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

240

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

43

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.327x) of Night Swim $2.00M  

(0.631x) of Argylle $1.07M  

Comps average: $1.54M

Edited April 4 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/2/2024 at 7:43 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
416	1456	83395	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

135

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

(0.429x) of Ghostbusters $2.02M  

Comps average: $2.02M 

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
416	1579	83395	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

123

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

(0.462x) of Ghostbusters $2.17M  

(0.986x) of Argylle $1.68M

Comps average: $1.93M 

 

Big increase against Ghostbusters today 

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Y'all better pray Civil War actually breaks out. Otherwise, I'm going on my "nostalgic toy commercial" rants all throughout April lmao

Are we really gonna lose sleep over a prequel to The Omen and a movie once destined for streaming not even three months ago not lighting the box office on fire? lmao.

[AniNate]

Is Monkey Man not doing so well now or something?

 

I do feel since I've been pushing the "rolling year" perspective for awhile I'm gonna just need to just grin and bear the dooming this month. Hopefully the movies are good at least and this is the last down month of the year. 

 

 

Edited April 4 by AniNate

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Is Monkey Man not doing so well now or something?

It's doing fine in sales. Just doesn't seem like it's going to be the breakout some were hoping.

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

First Omen (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	47	25	67	5012	1.34

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		24	9	35.82
MTC1:		52	18	77.61
Alamo:		11	3	16.42
Other chains:		4	4	5.97

 

Comps:

0.79x Night Swim: $1.15 Million (17 theaters)

0.28x Saw X: $570k (17 theaters)

0.31x Nun II: $975k (17 theaters)

0.18x Insidious Red Door: $910k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $900k

 

Better day today, but I am not super happy with my comps. The latter 3 are all established IPs and the former had many schools still out on winter break in other parts of the country. I had originally done that to account for the super short window, but for my final update tomorrow I will comp it with other horrors with more similar sales numbers

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

First Omen (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	47	56	123	5012	2.45

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		30	6	24.39
MTC1:		76	24	61.79
Alamo:		12	1	9.76
Other chains:		35	31	28.46

 

Comps:

1.01x Night Swim: $1.46 Million (17 theaters)

0.66x Thanksgiving: $665k (17 theaters)

0.35x Exorcist Believer: $995k (17 theaters)

0.45x Nun II: $1.39 Million (17 theaters)

0.38x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $480k (17 theaters)

0.23x Insidious Red Door: $1.13 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $1.02 Million

 

Usually I would have the last 3 day growth chart, but I'll wait for a while to bring it out, doesn't seem super useful comparing it to other movies when I was tracking a lot of different theaters, and at a different pull time.

 

Anyway, decided to throw a bunch more horror comps; really good last day (with the above caveat that this is a later pull than all those other comps, which could be skewing this a little), and maybe confirms that this would behave more a la like Night Swim and those small window releases, like Nun II. All over the place because of its window, so I'm gonna play it safe and go with behaving somewhere in the middle of the two groupings; my final prediction is $1 Million, +/- 0.2.

 

[crazymoviekid]

Monkey Man NJ Sales:

 

Thursday Comps:  

 

Theater 1: 9 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets  

 

Argylle: $3.25M

The Beekeeper: $1.19M

Plane: $.41M

Violent Night: $2.10M  

 

Still such a weird range.  I'd say around $2M.

 

 

Friday Comps:  

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets  

 

Argylle: $3.13M

The Beekeeper: $2.65M

Plane: $3.78M

Violent Night: $2.46M  

 

Range knocked down to a firm $2.5M-$4M

Edited April 4 by crazymoviekid

[crazymoviekid]

The First Omen NJ Sales:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 6 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets  

 

Imaginary: $1.00M

Night Swim: $2.01M

Thanksgiving: $1.29M

Exorcist: Believer: $3.26M

Evil Dead Rise: $.92M  

 

Leveling around $1.5M-$2M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 12 Tickets

Theater 2: 7 Tickets  

 

Imaginary: $3.93M

Night Swim: $5.15M

Thanksgiving: $5.37M

Exorcist: Believer: $2.58M

Evil Dead Rise: $2.19M  

 

Either going for $2.5M or $5M

Edited April 4 by crazymoviekid

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/2/2024 at 10:04 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	72	32	312	7797	4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		188	6	60.26
MTC1:		229	15	73.4
Alamo:		25	-2	8.01
Other chains:		58	19	18.59

 

Comps:

1x Argylle: $1.69 Million (17 theaters)

1.98x The Iron Claw: $1.33 Million (17 theaters)

0.51x Napoleon (TUE): $1.52 Million (17 theaters)

0.81x The Creator (THU): $1.1 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.41 Million

 

Bleeeeeeehhhh day jeez, was not expecting this after the growth it had been showing. Hoping it's just a bleep

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	70	94	406	7709	5.27

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		215	27	52.96
MTC1:		276	47	67.98
Alamo:		33	8	8.13
Other chains:		97	39	23.89

 

Comps:

1.07x Argylle: $1.83 Million (17 theaters)

2.13x The Iron Claw: $1.43 Million (17 theaters)

0.44x Napoleon (TUE): $1.32 Million (17 theaters)

0.18x MI7 (TUE): $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.46 Million

 

Sadly I did not track The Creator after T-2, so I slotted in MI7 as a comp there. Taking into account the Tuesday discounts I would say this is leaning towards 1.6-1.9 Million previews, but I will give my final prediction tomorrow since I'll actually be able to do a T-0 track for once, yay!

[misterpepp]

On 3/27/2024 at 6:18 PM, misterpepp said:

The Mummy 25th anniversary re-release opens April 26. This is a full re-release, not a one-night-only thing. Will keep an eye on the ticket date.

 

This goes on sale Friday.