The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 4/1/2024 at 7:24 AM, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-4, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 82

New Sales : 22

Growth: 37%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8,2

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 60/5

Late Evening: 22/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 51/8

Dolby: 31/2

 

Comps

0.280x HG: BoSS for $1.6M

0.603x Aquaman 2 for $2.7M

0.101x Dune 2 for $1,0M

Average: $1.8M

 

It's averaged  almost 30% growth over the last 3 days. It continues to rise against comps, it'll probably settle into the mid 2s, mayhe higher.

 

Based on demographics, I still expect an overindex locally, but regardless, I expect this to be walkup friendly.

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-3, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 93

New Sales : 11

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 71/5

Late Evening: 22/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 57/8

Dolby: 36/2

 

Comps

0.288x HG: BoSS for $1.7M

0.534x Aquaman 2 for $2.4M

0.100x Dune 2 for $1,0M

Average: $1.7M

 

Okay day. A little bit of a step back after a good three day run. I'll chalk it up to buying patterns impacted by the long weekend.

 

 

Edited April 2 by vafrow

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/1/2024 at 8:34 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-3	Jax	5	10	1	8	1,366	0.59%
		Phx	6	12	3	17	1,681	1.01%
		Ral	6	12	7	8	1,303	0.61%
	Total		17	34	11	33	4,350	0.76%
Monkey Man	T-3	Jax	6	18	11	40	3,006	1.33%
		Phx	6	14	20	70	1,683	4.16%
		Ral	7	14	12	47	1,840	2.55%
	Total		19	46	43	157	6,529	2.40%
Someone Like You	T-1	Jax	5	10	2	60	892	6.73%
		Phx	6	12	11	17	1,316	1.29%
		Ral	6	15	4	37	1,213	3.05%
	Total		17	37	17	114	3,421	3.33%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Someone Like You T-1 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .367x (274k)

 - Respect (Total) - .269x (185k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .098x (180k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .205x (260k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 307k

 

Monkey Man T-3 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.377x (1.55m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .646x (1.29m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .421x (1.31m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.05x (1.16m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .252x (1.18m)

 - Green Knight - 1.805x (1.43m)

 - Beast - 1.99x (1.88m)

 - 65 - 1.37x (1.67m)

 - Haunting in Venice (Total) - .789x (947k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.38m

 

This has been pretty steady in the 1.2-1.6m range for a while now.  I'm pulling for the higher end, especially with good sales over the weekend.  

 

First Omen T-3 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .324x (403k)

 - Last Voyage - .32x (240k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1.1x (1.13m)

 - Forever Purge - .508x (716k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .446x (567k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.08m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-2	Jax	5	11	4	12	1,571	0.76%
		Phx	6	12	9	26	1,681	1.55%
		Ral	7	13	6	14	1,351	1.04%
	Total		18	36	19	52	4,603	1.13%
Monkey Man	T-2	Jax	6	20	20	60	2,892	2.07%
		Phx	6	16	14	84	1,875	4.48%
		Ral	8	17	20	67	1,888	3.55%
	Total		20	53	54	211	6,655	3.17%
Someone Like You	T-0	Jax	5	10	5	65	892	7.29%
		Phx	6	12	1	18	1,316	1.37%
		Ral	6	15	4	41	1,213	3.38%
	Total		17	37	10	124	3,421	3.62%

 

Someone Like You T-0 adjusted comps*

- I Wanna Dance - .312x (233k)

 - Respect - .827x (570k)

 - Downton Abbey - .208x (223k)

 - 80 for Brady - .425x (318k)

All drama - 321k

All PG - 430k

All movies - 266k

 

Size adjusted comps - 585k

Growth rate forecast - 262k

 

I removed the EA from comps and went to previews only.  Growth rate has been pretty bad despite good early sales in a few places.  This is also Tuesday so there could be discounted tickets too.  I'll go with 300k for the day.

 

Monkey Man T-2 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.379x (1.55m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .655x (1.31m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .466x (1.45m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.166x (1.28m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .471x (1.45m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .269x (1.27m)

 - Green Knight - 1.302x (1.04m)

 - Beast - 1.87x (1.77m)

 - 65 - 1.327x (1.63m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.41m

 

First Omen T-2 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .377x (469k)

 - Last Voyage - .38x (285k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1x (1.02m)

 - Forever Purge - .51x (718k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .51x (648k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.06m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/1/2024 at 8:47 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-10	Jax	5	34	3*	26	6,188	0.42%
		Phx	6	19	7*	42	4,009	1.05%
		Ral	6	19	2*	32	2,613	1.22%
	Total		17	72	12	100	12,810	0.78%
Suga	T-9	Jax	3	7	128	128	1,574	8.13%
		Phx	4	5	173	173	992	17.44%
		Ral	5	9	142	142	1,380	10.29%
	Total		12	21	443	443	3,946	11.23%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Civil War T-10 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .164x (1.29m)

 - Elvis - .394x (1.52m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .73x (2.77m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-9 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.214x (1.13m)

 - One Piece - 1.005x (1.74m)

 - Left Behind - 3.234x (2.33m)

 - Dragon Ball - .585x (2.58m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .462x (2.3m)

 

I don't have any close comps to this, but I picked some event type films that seem to perform similarly.  This is well outside my realm of interest but it seems like it's doing pretty well!

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-9	Jax	6	35	5	28	6,366	0.44%
		Phx	6	19	16	51	4,009	1.27%
		Ral	8	23	10	40	2,957	1.35%
	Total		20	77	31	119	13,332	0.89%
Suga	T-8	Jax	3	7	0	128	1,574	8.13%
		Phx	4	5	8	181	992	18.25%
		Ral	5	9	-2	140	1,380	10.14%
	Total		12	21	6	449	3,946	11.38%

 

 

Civil War T-9 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .174x (1.37m)

 - Elvis - .418x (1.61m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .773x (2.94m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-8 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.223x (1.14m)

 - One Piece - .961x (1.67m)

 - Left Behind - 2.974x (2.14m)

 - Dragon Ball - .546x (2.4m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .437x (2.18m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/1/2024 at 8:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spy x Family	T-17	Jax	5	18	28	28	1,938	1.44%
		Phx	6	17	26	26	3,774	0.69%
		Ral	5	17	20	20	1,570	1.27%
	Total		16	52	74	74	7,282	1.02%

 

T-17 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .139x (614k)

 - JJK:0 - .171x (505k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spy x Family	T-16	Jax	5	18	2	30	1,938	1.55%
		Phx	6	17	5	31	3,774	0.82%
		Ral	6	19	6	26	1,734	1.50%
	Total		17	54	13	87	7,446	1.17%

 

T-16 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .155x (683k)

 - JJK:0 - .183x (540k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-37	Jax	5	25	21	21	4,936	0.43%
		Phx	1	6	27	27	1,854	1.46%
		Ral	2	6	9	9	1,236	0.73%
	Total		8	37	57	57	8,026	0.71%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-36	Jax	5	9	15	15	1,802	0.83%
		Phx	1	2	10	10	618	1.62%
		Ral	2	2	7	7	412	1.70%
	Total		8	13	32	32	2,832	1.13%

 

Day 1 comps

 - Godzilla x Kong - .237x (2.178m)

 - F9 - .327x (2.32m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .296x (1.66m)
 - Ghostbusters FE - .432x (1.9m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - .382x (1.58m)

 

Not a great start, but very far out and only PLF tickets are on sale so far.

[el sid]

The First Omen, counted today for Thursday, had 105 sold tickets (in 7 theaters).

 

Up modest 28% (at that low level it should have had a better jump). But let's see what happens till tomorrow, e.g. if the first reactions help.

 

Comps (all counted on Tuesday for Thursday; tomorrow I will have way more comps): The Nun II (3.1M from previews) had 591 sold tickets = 600k.

The Last Voyage of the Demeter (750k) had 194 = 400k.

M3gan (2.75M) had 341 = 850k.

And Lisa Frankenstein (700k) had 177 sold tickets = 400k.

 

Average: 550k from previews for The First Omen.

Overall I hoped for a better jump but the jump(s) till tomorrow will be more important anyway. 

 

PS: For Friday, it had today 116 sold tickets (also in 7 theaters). Not great either but last week it were almost zero tickets so that's at least an improvement too.

 

[keysersoze123]

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1

Early Shows(5/8) - 3106/89018 68420.38 362 shows

Previews - 4259/212991 91372.05 879 shows

Friday - 2906/293786 60738.50 1196 shows

 

No early sign of breakout but it has 5+ weeks to go to release. Let us see where things are close to release. 

 

[Eric Burnett]

https://deadline.com/2024/04/godzilla-x-kong-monkey-man-the-first-omen-box-office-preview-1235874366/

 

Quote

No dart gun, nor First Omen, nor Monkey Man will put Legendary/Warner Bros’ Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire to sleep this weekend, for after an unexpected $80M Easter weekend start, will continue to rumble with a -55% to -60% second weekend between $32M-$36M. Through four days, the Adam Wingard directed Monsterverse title stands at $87.7M, fueled by 57% K-12 schools out yesterday and another 14% colleges. Expect more cash today as per Comscore, there’s 28% K-12 out, and 5% universities.

 

Currently both First Omen and Monkey Man are expected to come in around the same level — $12M to low teens. 20th Century Studios’ First Omen, despite being an R-rated horror movie, is a little bit more women (typically it’s the young women who go for PG-13 horror, while the R-rated fare skews dude), while Universal/Monkeypaw’s Dev Patel feature directorial debut is more men. Both movies are going after the 18-34 crowd. Both titles will share PLFs while Legendary rules supreme on Imax. First Omen is booked at 3,300 theaters while Monkey Man has firmed up 3,000.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Monkey Man

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
338	1250	69851	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.146x) of Night Swim $1.72M  

(0.512x) of Mean Girls $1.69M  

Comps average: $1.71M 

 

Over $1.5M seems likely 

FLORIDA 

 

Monkey Man

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
338	1491	69851	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

241

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.377x) of Night Swim $2.07M  

(0.438x) of Mean Girls $1.45M  

Comps average: $1.76M 

 

Night swim is the more appropriate comp here, so $2M does seem likely 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
416	1321	83395	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.407x) of Ghostbusters $1.92M  

Comps average: $1.92M 

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
416	1456	83395	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

135

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

(0.429x) of Ghostbusters $2.02M  

Comps average: $2.02M 

[CJohn]

Where are the reviews of The First Omen?

[DAJK]

2M previews for Monkey Man should surely lead to mid-to-high teens, no? Yea I think it'll play a bit to the Peele niche, but honestly I trust this tracking team a bit more than early Deadline projections. Thinking 15M+ for now unless I hear otherwise from one of our trackers, or until Thursday previews come in.

[Eric Burnett]

https://deadline.com/2024/04/kingdom-of-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-opening-1235874441/

 

Quote

Apes are hot these days coming off of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire and beast fever will spill over into the weekend of May 10-12 when 20th Century Studios’ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is looking to open to $54M-$61M.

 

That’s the latest forecast from tracking service Quorum which reports on 6 weeks-in-advance box office projections versus the standard three-weeks by longtime tracking firm NRG.

Men, natch, are quite huge with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, bigger than last summer’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ($61M) and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning ($54.6M 3-day).

 

[Grand Cine]

10 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

https://deadline.com/2024/04/kingdom-of-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-opening-1235874441/

 

 

Deadline loves Quorum 😐. Hopefully our trackers are better .

 

Just one exemple of the fail of the quorum/ Deadline :

 

Wonka : low 20's predicted one month before and he finished almost X2

 

PS : I predicted more 45-50M OW 

[WebSurfer]

10 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Deadline loves Quorum 😐. Hopefully our trackers are better .

 

Just one exemple of the fail of the quorum/ Deadline :

 

Wonka : low 20's predicted one month before and he finished almost X2

 

PS : I predicted more 45-50M OW 

Yeah, I don't have a lot of trust in Quorum.

[babz06]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

2M previews for Monkey Man should surely lead to mid-to-high teens, no? Yea I think it'll play a bit to the Peele niche, but honestly I trust this tracking team a bit more than early Deadline projections. Thinking 15M+ for now unless I hear otherwise from one of our trackers, or until Thursday previews come in.

This isn’t a Peele directed film though, so I’m not sure how much it will appeal to his fanbase. 

Edited April 3 by babz06

[filmlover]

The marketing for Monkey Man is definitely leaning on Peele's name, almost as much as the Candyman legacy sequel (which he produced and co-wrote but didn't direct) did.

 

Given that this was a movie that was added super late to the schedule I would consider a $12M opening to be a decent number.

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	56	66	280	6042	4.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		182	52	65
MTC1:		214	45	76.43
Alamo:		27	5	9.64
Other chains:		39	16	13.93

 

Comps:

1.15x Argylle: $1.95 Million (17 theaters)

2.23x The Iron Claw: $1.49 Million (17 theaters)

0.54x Napoleon (TUE): $1.61 Million (17 theaters)

0.93x The Creator (THU): $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.58 Million

 

Really good update, rose against all comps, and that Argylle comp is looking pretty nice. Let's hope it keeps doing strong here!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	72	32	312	7797	4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		188	6	60.26
MTC1:		229	15	73.4
Alamo:		25	-2	8.01
Other chains:		58	19	18.59

 

Comps:

1x Argylle: $1.69 Million (17 theaters)

1.98x The Iron Claw: $1.33 Million (17 theaters)

0.51x Napoleon (TUE): $1.52 Million (17 theaters)

0.81x The Creator (THU): $1.1 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.41 Million

 

Bleeeeeeehhhh day jeez, was not expecting this after the growth it had been showing. Hoping it's just a bleep

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

First Omen (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	35	2	42	3702	1.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		15	3	35.71
MTC1:		34	5	80.95
Alamo:		8	0	19.05
Other chains:		0	-3	0

 

Comps:

0.63x Night Swim: $910k (17 theaters)

0.24x Saw X: $485k (17 theaters)

0.3x Nun II: $925k (17 theaters)

0.18x Insidious Red Door: $895k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $805k

 

Horrible update

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

First Omen (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	47	25	67	5012	1.34

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		24	9	35.82
MTC1:		52	18	77.61
Alamo:		11	3	16.42
Other chains:		4	4	5.97

 

Comps:

0.79x Night Swim: $1.15 Million (17 theaters)

0.28x Saw X: $570k (17 theaters)

0.31x Nun II: $975k (17 theaters)

0.18x Insidious Red Door: $910k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $900k

 

Better day today, but I am not super happy with my comps. The latter 3 are all established IPs and the former had many schools still out on winter break in other parts of the country. I had originally done that to account for the super short window, but for my final update tomorrow I will comp it with other horrors with more similar sales numbers

[keysersoze123]

So far nothing i have seen is showing Apes as a huge breakout. But with so much time to go to release, it could change. Trailers look great to me.