The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

With The Crow vacating June, this is what the month looks like now:

 

6/7: Bad Boys

6/14: Inside Out 2, The Watchers

6/21: The Bikeriders, It Ends With Us (a delay feels inevitable), Kind of Kindness (limited?)

6/28: Horizon Part 1, A Quiet Place Day 1

 

Definitely a light month depending on the sequels hitting and a potential breakout (The Watchers feels the most likely and should honestly move back up a week to its original date for more distance from A Quiet Place).

[Relevation]

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

With The Crow vacating June, this is what the month looks like now:

 

6/7: Bad Boys

6/14: Inside Out 2, The Watchers

6/21: The Bikeriders, It Ends With Us (a delay feels inevitable), Kind of Kindness (limited?)

6/28: Horizon Part 1, A Quiet Place Day 1

 

Definitely a light month depending on the sequels hitting and a potential breakout (The Watchers feels the most likely and should honestly move back up a week to its original date for more distance from A Quiet Place).

This actually looks like a #1 north of $50M+ on every weekend to me tbh, definitely much more balanced in terms of movie types than the $300M budget tentpole fuckfest that was June of last year 

 

One big $400M+ mega blockbuster, 3 solid $150-200M genre grossers, and a few smaller films is a cleaner balance especially considering all these movies have smaller budgets 

[keysersoze123]

On 4/8/2024 at 9:15 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows Final - 9304/15392 211793.46 52 shows 

Previews(T-3) - 25368/372819 497887.18 1918 shows +3610

Friday - 20349/622796 391428.55 3081 shows +3253 

 

Early shows looks like ~325K based on show count posted by @katnisscinnaplex.

 

Definite growth again for previews. Also this is playing better at most places than say Monkey Man last week. So I am going to bump up thursday alone at 2.5m+ at this point. 

Civil War MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 30965/398149 600910.07 2084 shows +5597

Friday - 26018/699115 491670.30 3556 shows +5669

 

Really strong day for Civil War. This is definitely not another Monkey King. Its probably going for 3m thursday at this point. 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 30965/398149 600910.07 2084 shows +5597

Friday - 26018/699115 491670.30 3556 shows +5669

 

Really strong day for Civil War. This is definitely not another Monkey King. Its probably going for 3m thursday at this point. 

Deserved. It’s fantastic. Hope the strong days continue into the weekend. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, D1, T-31 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 3/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 3/6

VIP: 0/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 11

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: NA

 

The preview sales went up yesterday, but EA has been open for a week, but I haven't been tracking because of site errors.

 

It's hard to really compare this to anything. Especially since it continues the trend of Fall Guy with EA shows the day before that's almost as wide as the preview showings. They might as well just open this on the Wednesday.

 

In terms of Fall Guy, it's opened stronger, but it's also an established brand vs something original, and also only opening a month before instead of two. Also, everyone was busy with the eclipse in the region. 

 

In terms of other comps, only thing I have is Wonka that opened this early, and that was a little slower, but we're talking such low numbers, it's not worthwhile to really apply a formal comp to it.

 

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, D2, T-30 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 13

New Sales: 9

Growth: 225%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 12/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 7/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 12

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 1

 

It seemed to do a lot better on day 2, but still nothing huge. I'll probably take some time on the weekend to try and figure out a comp strategy.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/9/2024 at 8:51 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-2	Jax	6	40	29	145	6,947	2.09%
		Phx	6	25	20	124	4,490	2.76%
		Ral	8	21	20	98	2,751	3.56%
	Total		20	86	69	367	14,188	2.59%
Sting	T-2	Jax	4	5	1	4	313	1.28%
		Phx	5	8	3	4	584	0.68%
		Ral	2	3	0	0	166	0.00%
	Total		11	16	4	8	1,063	0.75%
Suga	T-1	Jax	3	7	-3	153	1,574	9.72%
		Phx	4	5	0	189	992	19.05%
		Ral	5	6	4	153	846	18.09%
	Total		12	18	1	495	3,412	14.51%

 

Civil War T-2 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - Elvis - .494x (1.91m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .81x (3.08m)

 - Free Guy - 1.05x (2.34m)

 - M:I 7 - .179x (1.57m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.23x (4.16m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .819x (2.97m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.06m

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-1 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.102x (1.03m)

 - One Piece - .651x (1.13m)

 - Left Behind - 1.196x (861k)

 - Dragon Ball - .341x (1.5m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .227x (1.13m)

 

No comps small enough for Sting

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-1	Jax	6	47	45	201	7,476	2.69%
		Phx	6	38	44	168	5,966	2.82%
		Ral	8	25	41	139	3,136	4.43%
	Total		20	110	130	508	16,578	3.06%
Sting	T-1	Jax	4	5	1	5	313	1.60%
		Phx	5	8	0	4	584	0.68%
		Ral	2	3	0	0	166	0.00%
	Total		11	16	1	9	1,063	0.85%
Suga	T-0	Jax	3	7	4	157	1,574	9.97%
		Phx	4	6	4	193	1,066	18.11%
		Ral	5	6	0	153	846	18.09%
	Total		12	19	8	503	3,486	14.43%

 

Civil War T-1 adjusted comps

 - NTTD - missed

 - Elvis - .591x (2.28m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .88x (3.36m)

 - Free Guy - 1.26x (2.87m)

 - M:I 7 - .334x (2.14m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.11x (3.76m)

 - Black Phone - 1.18x (3.72m)

 - Creed III - .582x (2.59m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.21m

 

Feeling pretty good about 3m+ as well.  

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

 

Suga T-0 adjusted comps

 - Heard the Bells - 1.014x (946k)

 - One Piece - .541x (940k)

 - Left Behind - 1.108x (798k)

 - Dragon Ball - .274x (1.21m)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .186x (924k)

 

No comps small enough for Sting

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/9/2024 at 8:55 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-9	Jax	5	17	0	8	2,346	0.34%
		Phx	6	15	2	9	2,900	0.31%
		Ral	8	17	0	11	2,035	0.54%
	Total		19	49	2	28	7,281	0.38%
Spy x Family	T-9	Jax	5	18	0	60	1,938	3.10%
		Phx	6	18	5	61	3,928	1.55%
		Ral	8	22	6	56	2,036	2.75%
	Total		19	58	11	177	7,902	2.24%
Ungentlemanly	T-9	Jax	5	12	3	10	1,274	0.78%
		Phx	6	12	2	17	1,338	1.27%
		Ral	8	12	1	8	1,308	0.61%
	Total		19	36	6	35	3,920	0.89%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-4	Jax	3	4	1	100	383	26.11%
		Phx	4	5	3	65	602	10.80%
		Ral	4	4	7	107	467	22.91%
	Total		11	13	11	272	1,452	18.73%

 

Spy x Family T-9 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .234x (1.03m)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .185x (920k)

 - One PIece - .401x (697k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-4 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .189x (731k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .44x (484k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .549x (541k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .487x (853k)

 - Transformers (EA) - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 538k

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-9 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .745x (906k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .227x (708k)

 - Turtles - .134x (453k)

 

Abigail T-9 comps

 - Talk to Me - .903x (1.12m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .292x (1.46m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-8	Jax	5	17	0	8	2,346	0.34%
		Phx	6	15	1	10	2,900	0.34%
		Ral	8	17	3	14	2,035	0.69%
	Total		19	49	4	32	7,281	0.44%
Spy x Family	T-8	Jax	5	16	6	66	1,658	3.98%
		Phx	6	18	6	67	3,928	1.71%
		Ral	8	22	3	59	2,036	2.90%
	Total		19	56	15	192	7,622	2.52%
Ungentlemanly	T-8	Jax	5	12	0	10	1,274	0.78%
		Phx	6	12	0	17	1,338	1.27%
		Ral	8	12	-1	7	1,308	0.54%
	Total		19	36	-1	34	3,920	0.87%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-3	Jax	3	4	9	109	383	28.46%
		Phx	4	5	12	77	602	12.79%
		Ral	4	4	9	116	467	24.84%
	Total		11	13	30	302	1,452	20.80%

 

Spy x Family T-8 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .233x (1.03m)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .187x (930k)

 - One PIece - .411x (714k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-3 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - 1.184x (1.38m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .199x (767k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .48x (528k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .534x (525k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .477x (835k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .529x (793k)

 

Size adjusted average - 944k

 

EA had new sales in almost all shows

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-8 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .586x (713k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .174x (543k)

 - Turtles - .116x (391k)

 

Abigail T-8 comps

 - Talk to Me - .865x (1.08m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .283x (1.42m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-14	Jax	5	5	107	107	644	16.61%
		Phx	5	7	221	221	725	30.48%
		Ral	7	8	195	195	730	26.71%
	Total		17	20	523	523	2,099	24.92%

 

T-14 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (EA) - .508x (1.2m)

 

It looks like tickets for previews just went on sale today, so I'll check those out tomorrow.  EA is looking really good with a lot of group sales already out there.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Challengers T-16: 24.51%

Unsung Hero T-16: 16.48%

The Fall Guy T-23: 38.78%

Tarot T-23: 27.11%

The Bikeriders T-72: 16.57%

Despicable Me 4 T-84: 58.62%

Longlegs T-93: 15.28%

Speak No Evil T-156: 21.76%

 

Civil War T-2: 34.63% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 26% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

 

The Strangers - Chapter 1 T-37: 29.85% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 15% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 62% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

[el sid]

A momentary glimpse at how Abigail is doing in my theaters: It had today for next Thursday ( = 8 days left) 109 sold tickets with showtimes in all of the 7 theaters.

 

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release for Thursday = 5 days left for Abigail): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 96 sold tickets,

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 115,

M3gan (2.75M) had 274 

and The First Omen (725k) had 82 sold tickets.

 

Not bad. Until then Abigail should manage it to have at least 1.5x the sales of today which would mean ca. 1-1.5M from previews. 

Edited April 10 by el sid

[Shawn Robbins]

19 hours ago, DAJK said:

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare doesn't look like it's opening in Canada. Which frustrates me for a few reasons. 1) I really want to see it lol. 2) This has been a pattern with every one of Lionsgate's "smaller" releases since Moonfall. 3) Cineplex is now a "distributor" of Lionsgate films in Canada... so I have no clue as to why Canada would forego a release for these movies.

 

Does anyone in this thread (maybe @Shawn Robbins) have any info on this to be able to shed some light? I'm trying to figure out what's going on but haven't been able to find anything concrete.

Definitely worth looking into. I've started noticing some of the same odd patterns you're talking about.

 

Civil War definitely looks to be tracking well, thinking it could come close to or hit $20m even with slight front-loading consideration.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

34 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Definitely worth looking into. I've started noticing some of the same odd patterns you're talking about.

 

Civil War definitely looks to be tracking well, thinking it could come close to or hit $20m even with slight front-loading consideration.

 

Already really miss your presence at Box Office Pro, @Shawn Robbins! BOP have wasted no time in starting to circle the drain. In today's Weekend "Preview" Predictions, they give a $10 million OW range of $20-30 M for Civil War.... and even more alarmingly, they incorrectly state that *Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare* is opening this weekend. Also no weekend chart, no real data. There is nothing "Pro" about  BOP anymore. #BoxOfficeAmateurish

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-preview-civil-war-aims-to-unseat-godzilla-x-kong-from-top-spot/

 

 

Edited April 10 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[Eric is Quiet]

20 hours ago, DAJK said:

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare doesn't look like it's opening in Canada. Which frustrates me for a few reasons. 1) I really want to see it lol. 2) This has been a pattern with every one of Lionsgate's "smaller" releases since Moonfall. 3) Cineplex is now a "distributor" of Lionsgate films in Canada... so I have no clue as to why Canada would forego a release for these movies.

 

Does anyone in this thread (maybe @Shawn Robbins) have any info on this to be able to shed some light? I'm trying to figure out what's going on but haven't been able to find anything concrete.

Can't confirm it, but it might just be a case where Lionsgate's going through bad money troubles. They were already almost an acquisition target back in 2018, they spun off the Starz network into its own company a few months ago, and they're probably more susceptible and damaged by movies bombing, which they have been doing for quite a while. The constant delays for a lot of their movie projects also probably says a lot. Could be wrong of course, and I don't want to derail things further, but that sadly seems like the culprit.

[babz06]

57 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

Already really miss your presence at Box Office Pro, @Shawn Robbins! BOP have wasted no time in starting to circle the drain. In today's Weekend "Preview" Predictions, they give a $10 million OW range of $20-30 M for Civil War.... and even more alarmingly, they incorrectly state that *Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare* is opening this weekend. Also no weekend chart, no real data. There is nothing "Pro" about  BOP anymore. #BoxOfficeAmateurish

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-preview-civil-war-aims-to-unseat-godzilla-x-kong-from-top-spot/

 

 

Do they even care anymore now that Shawn is gone? It’s unacceptable to get release dates wrong. 

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Can't confirm it, but it might just be a case where Lionsgate's going through bad money troubles. They were already almost an acquisition target back in 2018, they spun off the Starz network into its own company a few months ago, and they're probably more susceptible and damaged by movies bombing, which they have been doing for quite a while. The constant delays for a lot of their movie projects also probably says a lot. Could be wrong of course, and I don't want to derail things further, but that sadly seems like the culprit.

Lionsgate feels like it's been going through a rough patch for a while. Feels like most of what they put out what now is either cheap-looking genre projects or are leftovers that others passed on like Arthur the King. Granted, genre fare is what they specialized in as they were on the rise, but they had branched out into other kinds of movies (Hunger Games being a major deciding factor in that decision for sure, of course) and had become the official seventh biggest studio (or sixth after the Fox/Disney acquisition) by the early to mid 2010s.

 

They haven't even been in the awards race in the 20s so far after being a fairly major prestige presence during the 10s. Might have become one of the bigger studio casualties of the streaming era as far as landing the buzzy projects was concerned tbh.

[filmlover]

Also I checked sales for Civil War near me and it seems to be selling fine but nothing amazing. Anywhere between $15-20M for the weekend seems like the right target.

[Krissykins]

I’m thinking over $20m is more likely, if Katnis and Keyser are both suggesting the possibility of $3m+ previews. 
 

Edited April 10 by Krissykins

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
448	2586	89753	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

363

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.734x) of Monkey Man $2.43M

Comps average: $2.43M 

 

Sticking with just Monkey Man as comp since that's the best one.

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
491	3084	100473	3.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

498

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

43

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.781x) of Monkey Man $2.49M

Comps average: $2.49M

 

Looks like $2.5M 

[VanillaSkies]

FWIW, Lionsgate just put out a banger upcoming slate at CinemaCon today. Lots of potential hits coming up in the next 12-18 months. 

[jeffthehat]

20 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Civil War T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
581	16164	92

Comps

0.37x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.7m

0.22x Dune 2 T-2 = $2.2m

4.30x Imaginary T-2 = $3.1m

0.30x Godzilla x Kong T-2 = $3.0m

5.38x Lisa Frankenstein T-2 = $3.8m

 

AVG = $2.76m

---

Pulled ~8 hrs later than usual. Should probably round the average down 5-10% or something to account for the time change. 

 

Indiana

Civil War T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
706	16564	98

Comps

0.39x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $1.8m

0.23x Dune 2 T-1 = $2.3m

0.30x Godzilla x Kong T-1 = $3.0m

4.50x Imaginary T-1 = $3.3m

5.35x Lisa Frankenstein T-1 = $3.7m

 

AVG = $2.82m

---

Has risen against comps past few days. Thinking around 3m too.  

Edited April 10 by jeffthehat