The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[kayumanggi]

 

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Civil War seems to be selling decently in my area. Better than Monkey Man. Hoping for 3m+.

[el sid]

Civil War, counted today for today, had 1.357 sold tickets (in 7 theaters). Doing best (by far) in the AMC Metreon in San Francisco (605 sold tickets), followed by LA (319) and NY (203).

Up solid 20% since yesterday.

 

Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): The Creator (1.6M from previews) had 1.120 sold tickets = 1.95M.

Monkey Man (1.4M) had 1.111 sold tickets = 1.7M.

Argylle (1.7M) had 997 sold tickets = 2.3M.

Amsterdam (550k) had 289 sold tickets = 2.6M.

BT (4.6M) had 1.508 sold tickets = 4.15M.

And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (5.8M) had 2.573 sold tickets = 3.05M.

Average: 2.6M. The three comps that I had also yesterday (BT, MM and Argylle) stayed almost exactly the same .

The jump till today wasn't too big and I still don't think that this is a film which will have giant walk-ups but it should clearly beat the OW of Monkey Man.

Edited April 11 by el sid

[titanic2187]

At one point I was considering if 30m OW is possible for civil war but the acceleration seem to have come to a stop. As long as this is breaking A24 OW record I am good, although that actually isn’t a very high bar too clear. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/10/2024 at 6:29 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
491	3084	100473	3.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

498

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

43

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.781x) of Monkey Man $2.49M

Comps average: $2.49M

 

Looks like $2.5M 

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
491	4299	100473	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1215

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(2.035x) of Monkey Man $2.85M

Comps average: $2.85M

 

Excellent final day. Calling it at $2.8M +/- $0.2M *just for Thursday* 

It will likely hit $3M+ with EA

 

EDIT: Had no idea this had EA

Edited April 11 by TheFlatLannister

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-0	Jax	6	47	74	275	7,476	3.68%
		Phx	6	38	75	243	5,966	4.07%
		Ral	8	25	42	181	3,136	5.77%
	Total		20	110	191	699	16,578	4.22%
Sting	T-0	Jax	4	5	2	7	313	2.24%
		Phx	5	8	3	7	584	1.20%
		Ral	2	3	2	2	166	1.20%
	Total		11	16	7	16	1,063	1.51%

 

Civil War T-0 adjusted comps

 - NTTD - .311x (1.68m)

 - Elvis - .606x (2.34m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .86x (3.38m)

 - Free Guy - 1.23x (2.79m)

 - M:I 7 - .309x (1.98m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.04x (3.52m)

 - Black Phone - 1.03x (3.25m)

 - Creed III - .541x (2.41m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.1m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Civil War	134.56%	34.90%	38.66%	37.60%
Elvis	-	-	21.49%	34.07%
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%
Free Guy	87.87%	33.44%	51.23%	41.83%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
Meg 2	202.24%	52.91%	-	47.16%
Black Phone	-	-	26.67%	57.58%
Creed III	141.04%	38.62%	33.43%	48.00%

 

Not quite the level of growth that I was hoping for yesterday.  If walkups aren't good, this could get down into the 2.5m range (before adding EA).  Most of the comps did between 10% and 25% better on final update than T-0 (M:I 7 had a smaller increase).  If it matches the +37% (~960 final), the size adjusted average drops to 2.7m.  It'll need a +60% to keep the average above 3m (and even then the growth model would still give a 2.61m prediction).  For now I'll keep my expectations around 2.5m and hope for the best.

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track.  All comps are excluding EA sales & gross where applicable

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	1-Hr	Jax	6	47	154	429	7,476	5.74%
		Phx	6	38	91	334	5,966	5.60%
		Ral	8	25	126	307	3,136	9.79%
	Total		20	110	371	1,070	16,578	6.45%

 

Civil War T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - NTTD - .392x (2.12m)

 - Elvis - .67x (2.59m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .7x (2.66m)

 - Free Guy - 1.23x (2.81m)

 - M:I 7 - .339x (2.17m)

 - Meg 2 - .927x (3.15m)

 - Black Phone - .93x (2.92m)

 - Creed III - .5x (2.22m)

 - Monkey Man - 1.88x (3.11m)

All action movies - 2.33m

All R movies - 2.94m

All 4pm previews - 2.63m

All movies - 2.67m

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.82m

Growth model forecast - 2.51m

 

Well well well.  Managed a +53% in same-day sales which is a great sign for tonight.   Growth model still has it around 2.5m, but I'll bump my prediction up to 2.75m before adding EA (3.1m total)

 

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Civil War	183.07%	39.42%	44.10%	53.08%
No Time to Die	-	-	-	21.43%
Elvis	114.80%	43.88%	23.74%	38.42%
Equalizer 3	237.97%	38.19%	30.36%	89.25%
Free Guy	147.58%	32.19%	47.48%	51.66%
M:I 7	150.75%	34.95%	27.59%	39.44%
Meg 2	285.95%	54.18%	64.96%	71.22%
Black Phone	259.69%	50.94%	32.48%	70.27%
Creed III	240.00%	39.37%	30.63%	65.79%

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 37355/398875 715288.13 2087 shows +6390

Friday - 32781/704452 610358.39 3581 shows +6763

 

There was not that much of an acceleration today. I dont think this movie will over index as much as Monkey King but 35% MTC1 ratio means it needs to have good walkups to hit 3m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.  

Looking like its going to have a strong finish. Definitely 3m+. Probably around 3.5m with early shows if they club it together. 

[Eric is Quiet]

On 4/3/2024 at 12:58 PM, Eric Atreides said:

Y'all better pray Civil War actually breaks out. Otherwise, I'm going on my "nostalgic toy commercial" rants all throughout April lmao

Crisis averted y'all. Thanks for showing support to Garland. 🙏

[DAJK]

8 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Crisis averted y'all. Thanks for showing support to Garland. 🙏

Not so fast  Here’s what my crystal ball predicts:

 

Conventional tracking had this in mid-to-high teens. BOT tracking said low-20’s was possible. Thursday numbers come in, pretty good. Early Friday numbers come in. Could 30M be possible? Heck, 35? Expectations go up and up. 

 

The film is a bit frontloaded. Weekend estimate comes in at 31M. Actual comes in at 29.91M. Cue @CJohn proclaiming that movie theaters are dead, and the usual doom-and-gloom back-and-forth.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Not so fast  Here’s what my crystal ball predicts:

 

Conventional tracking had this in mid-to-high teens. BOT tracking said low-20’s was possible. Thursday numbers come in, pretty good. Early Friday numbers come in. Could 30M be possible? Heck, 35? Expectations go up and up. 

 

The film is a bit frontloaded. Weekend estimate comes in at 31M. Actual comes in at 29.91M. Cue @CJohn proclaiming that movie theaters are dead, and the usual doom-and-gloom back-and-forth.

 

 

Got your new profile pic ready for you, @DAJK. 👍

[Eric is Quiet]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Not so fast  Here’s what my crystal ball predicts:

 

Conventional tracking had this in mid-to-high teens. BOT tracking said low-20’s was possible. Thursday numbers come in, pretty good. Early Friday numbers come in. Could 30M be possible? Heck, 35? Expectations go up and up. 

 

The film is a bit frontloaded. Weekend estimate comes in at 31M. Actual comes in at 29.91M. Cue @CJohn proclaiming that movie theaters are dead, and the usual doom-and-gloom back-and-forth.

Well my barometer for this was 20+, and I don't go all NTC mode. And that's all that matters. Fall Guy's also looking good, so we got a few more weeks without me ranting (yeah I know it's based off an old TV show, but nobody under 50 has ever heard of that show, and they ain't making Funko Pops last I check).

 

CJohn? I have no control over what he does, as long as he doesn't go too crazy. But he knows how to behave. We'll be fine. It'll all be fine.

[Cmasterclay]

If you really think about, the Civil War has been a nostalgic toy commercial for a large swath of the country for 150 years.

[emoviefan]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If you really think about, the Civil War has been a nostalgic toy commercial for a large swath of the country for 150 years.

Let's keep it to just being nostalgia for them. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/7/2024 at 10:49 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	5	94	13674	0.69
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	11	102	5090	2
TOTALS:	98	16	196	18764	1.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		79	2	84.04
MTC1:		72	2	76.6
Alamo:		13	0	13.83
Other chains:		9	3	9.57

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps:

0.23x Oppy: $2.39 Million (17 theaters)

 

This is not a real jump, it's because I started tracking Oppy in more theaters at T-25. Next update on Thursday I will have actually useful comps.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-32):

Day: T-32, T-31	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 7 theaters	21	8	57	4568	1.25
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters	23	35	95	5146	1.85
TOTALS:	44	43	152	9714	1.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		57	8	100
MTC1:		51	8	89.47
Alamo:		6	0	10.53
Other chains:		0	0	0

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps:

0.92x Fall Guy: ???

0.19x Oppy: $2 Million (12 theaters)

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	10	104	13674	0.76
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	9	111	5090	2.18
TOTALS:	98	19	215	18764	1.15

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		87	8	83.65
MTC1:		73	1	70.19
Alamo:		16	3	15.38
Other chains:		15	6	14.42

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps (combined EA + THU):

2.79x Monkey Man: $3.91 Million

1.17x Ghostbusters Afterlife: $5.49 Million (17 theaters)

1.03x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.61 Million (17 theaters)

0.23x MI7 (w/ EA): $2.09 Million (12 theaters)

 

Gonna start having some better comps from now on, but the release window is always going to be messy here.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-27	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	98	28	85	17196	0.49
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters	23	43	138	5146	2.68
TOTALS:	121	71	223	22342	1

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		81	24	95.29
MTC1:		57	6	67.06
Alamo:		12	6	14.12
Other chains:		16	16	18.82

*Chart for Thursday sales only

 

Comps:

1.24x Fall Guy: ???

0.23x Oppy: $2.43 Million (12 theaters)

[crazymoviekid]

On 4/10/2024 at 11:25 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Civil War NJ Sales:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets

 

Argylle: $3.55M

Beekeeper: $1.30M

Napoleon: $1.23M

Knock at the Cabin: $1.96M

The Menu: $1.15M

The Northman: $1.48M

 

Decent sales. Range kinda wide. Still best guess $1.5M-$2M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 24 Tickets

 

Argylle: $4.97M

Beekeeper: $4.21M

Napoleon: $1.09M

Knock at the Cabin: $3.56M

The Menu: $2.12M

The Northman: $2.13M

 

Decent day. Still feeling $3.5M-$4M unless my area is just really underperforming.

 

Civil War NJ Sales:

 

Final Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 24 Tickets
Theater 2: 19 Tickets

 

Argylle: $2.03M
Beekeeper: $1.71M
Napoleon: $.98M
Knock at the Cabin: $2.08M
The Menu: $.87M
The Northman: $1.35M

 

Good last day. Definitely feeling $1.75M-$2M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets
Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

Argylle: $3.76M
Beekeeper: $3.43M
Napoleon: $1.14M
Knock at the Cabin: $3.63M
The Menu: $2.60M
The Northman: $2.87M

 

Pretty good day of sales.  Weirdly not breaking out against comps though.  Still feeling around $3.5M-$4M.

[crazymoviekid]

On 4/10/2024 at 11:25 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Civil War NJ Sales:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets

 

Argylle: $3.55M

Beekeeper: $1.30M

Napoleon: $1.23M

Knock at the Cabin: $1.96M

The Menu: $1.15M

The Northman: $1.48M

 

Decent sales. Range kinda wide. Still best guess $1.5M-$2M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 24 Tickets

 

Argylle: $4.97M

Beekeeper: $4.21M

Napoleon: $1.09M

Knock at the Cabin: $3.56M

The Menu: $2.12M

The Northman: $2.13M

 

Decent day. Still feeling $3.5M-$4M unless my area is just really underperforming.

 

Civil War NJ Sales:

 

Final Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 24 Tickets
Theater 2: 19 Tickets

 

Argylle: $2.03M
Beekeeper: $1.71M
Napoleon: $.98M
Knock at the Cabin: $2.08M
The Menu: $.87M
The Northman: $1.35M

 

Good last day. Definitely feeling $1.75M-$2M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets
Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

Argylle: $3.76M
Beekeeper: $3.43M
Napoleon: $1.14M
Knock at the Cabin: $3.63M
The Menu: $2.60M
The Northman: $2.87M

 

Pretty good day of sales.  Weirdly not breaking out against comps though.  Still feeling around $3.5M-$4M.

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/7/2024 at 11:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	35	20	29	3730	0.78
Saturday April 13 EA: 18 theaters	18	48	228	2004	11.38
TOTALS:	53	68	257	5734	4.48

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		17	15	58.62
MTC1:		19	12	65.52
Alamo:		9	8	31.03
Other chains:		1	0	3.45

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Thursday comp:

0.6x Trolls: $775k (17 theaters)

0.21x Monkey Man: $295k (17 theaters)

0.28x Argylle: $480k (17 theaters)

 

EA Comp:

0.61x Trolls Sat EA: $710k (17 theaters)

0.5x MI7 EA: $1 Million (17 theaters)

 

Abigail (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	50	17	30	6686	0.45

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		7	0	23.33
MTC1:		15	5	50
Alamo:		10	6	33.33
Other chains:		5	2	16.67

 

Comps:

1.3x Imaginary: $945k (17 theaters)

0.87x Lisa Frankenstein: $605k (17 theaters)

0.54x Thanksgiving: $540k (17 theaters)

0.24x Exorcist Believer: $685k (17 theaters)

 

As always, there is a high degree of variance with sales this small, so beware! Things can easily change

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	38	29	58	4032	1.44
Saturday April 13 EA: 18 theaters	18	96	324	2004	16.17
TOTALS:	56	125	382	6036	6.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		30	13	51.72
MTC1:		41	22	70.69
Alamo:		17	8	29.31
Other chains:		0	-1	0

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Thursday comp:

0.67x Trolls: $875k (17 theaters)

Monkey Man: Missed

0.42x Argylle: $710k (17 theaters)

0.21x Napoleon (TUE): $640k (17 theaters)

 

EA Comp:

0.4x Trolls Sat EA: $445k (17 theaters)

0.45x MI7 EA: $905k (17 theaters)

0.3x Dune Part 2 EA: $595k (17 theaters)

 

Will try to give a T-1 update for EA tomorrow, maybe around $500k for that (ATP is lower than other EA due to no PLFs)?

 

Abigail (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	56	20	50	7250	0.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		12	0	24
MTC1:		27	5	54
Alamo:		17	6	34
Other chains:		6	2	12

 

Comps:

1.27x Imaginary: $920k (17 theaters)

0.9x Lisa Frankenstein: $635k (17 theaters)

0.77x Thanksgiving: $770k (17 theaters)

0.32x Exorcist Believer: $905k (17 theaters)

 

Rose against all comps, we shall see where it goes with a week left

 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 37355/398875 715288.13 2087 shows +6390

Friday - 32781/704452 610358.39 3581 shows +6763

 

There was not that much of an acceleration today. I dont think this movie will over index as much as Monkey King but 35% MTC1 ratio means it needs to have good walkups to hit 3m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.  

Civil War MTC1

Previews Final - 65334/400424 1181922.83 2098 shows +27979

Friday - 44491/706164 808746.43 3595 shows +11710

 

Really strong final day of walkups. I am thinking 3.3m+ true thursday and another 325K for early shows. OW should be low 20s at minimum. 

[DAJK]

Agree with @keysersoze123 here. Every single one of my comps is pointing to 3M+ today. Wouldn’t be surprised if Thursday is reported at 3.5.