The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Mojoguy]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

 

Ok I believe the hype now

Maybe they will finally be rewarded with a good Garfield film!

[AniNate]

I do imagine there is some of that desperation for family content at play here, which I don't know will be as pronounced with it opening after IF in the US

[Flip]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I do imagine there is some of that desperation for family content at play here, which I don't know will be as pronounced with it opening after IF in the US

I agree, the fact that Kung Fu Panda has over 3x legs even as it’s the worst received entry in the series shows how people are clamoring for family movies

[AniNate]

On 4/30/2024 at 7:51 AM, AniNate said:

Gonna try some amateur local tracking because I am sort of interested in how this is playing starting out:

 

IF (Thursday-Sunday)

 

Cinemark Cuyahoga Falls - 4 tickets sold
Cinemark Tinseltown North Canton - 23 tickets sold
Cinemark Bistro North Canton - 7 tickets sold
Cinemark Valley View - 21 tickets sold

 

 

 

 

Cinemark Cuyahoga Falls - 4 tickets sold
Cinemark Tinseltown North Canton - 60 tickets sold
Cinemark Bistro North Canton - 8 tickets sold
Cinemark Valley View - 23 tickets sold

 

People really want to go to the Tinseltown for this. That is the brightest and shiniest of these theaters, wonder what sort of PLF share to expect.

[el sid]

I should have counted The Phantom Menace instead today...it's planned on Friday because I'm really interested.

Maybe I can't count tomorrow at all. Let's see. If not, I will compensate that as good as I can on Friday.

 

The other two films were no pleasure to count today. I'm sorry that I don't have better news :(.

 

Tarot, counted today for tomorrow, had 114 sold tickets (in 7 theaters, at least it has showtimes now in my AMCs in NY and Texas).

Up for a horror film horrible 18% since Monday.

 

Comps: The Invitation (775k from previews) had 176 sold tickets = 500k.

Devil (660k) had 140 = 550k.

M3gan (2.75M) had 450 = 700k.

Lisa Frankenstein (700k) had 209 = 400k.

Abigail (1M) had 248 = 450k.

The First Omen (725k) had 120 = 700k.

Knock at the Cabin (1.5M) had 471 = 350k.

And Smile (2M) had 306 = 750k.

 

Average: 550k. 

At least the comps are way more even now and in line with other reports here and it got more shows.

I think this is a walk-up friendly film but the jump till today was just surprisingly poor. I'm sorry.

 

[AniNate]

I tried looking at the Regals for IF but got rate limited 😄. Guess I'll have to leave that to the professionals

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Back to Black T-16: 26.35% Awareness, 38.35% Interest

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-16: 31.21% Awareness, 47.4% Interest

Furiosa T-23: 33.99% Awareness, 41.78% Interest

Wolfs T-142: 14.59% Awareness, 40.35% Interest

Joker: Folie a Deux T-156: 52.65% Awareness, 60.55% Interest

Gladiator II T-205: 28.51% Awareness, 46.78% Interest

Mufasa: The Lion King T-233: 49.58% Awareness, 55.95% Interest

 

Tarot T-2: 31.74% Awareness, 47.32% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 44% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

The Fall Guy T-2: 47.61% Awareness, 49.67% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Tentpole Awareness: N/A

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Tentpole Interest: N/A

 

The Watchers T-37: 29.32% Awareness, 45.63% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 56% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 3% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 65% chance of 10M, 23% chance of 20M, 6% chance of 40M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 70% chance of 10M, 39% chance of 20M, 17% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 40M

[el sid]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

 

Ok I believe the hype now

Garfield has already screenings in these countries? Do you have some more details? 

 

But I said it months ago: Don't underestimate Garfield worldwide ☺️.

[AniNate]

I just share what Reddit tells me. But like I said I buy that it's benefiting significantly from people just wanting anything to kill time with their kids now, which might also be a factor in IF's seemingly elevated up front demand in the US

[vafrow]

Looking at Fall Guy EA walk ups and they're looking pretty good.

 

Started the day at 65, currently at 113, 74% increase.

 

That's with a half hour before showtime. I wouldn't be surprised if that lifts and gets to a full doubling.

 

It's usually hard for me to measure walk ups as data disappears once shows are 15 minutes in, but this feels like a positive sign. It's also a gorgeous day, probably the first great patio day of the season.

 

Edit: Missed a screening. It's actually 135 in sales. So it did double in walk ups today.

Edited May 1 by vafrow

[vafrow]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I just share what Reddit tells me. But like I said I buy that it's benefiting significantly from people just wanting anything to kill time with their kids now, which might also be a factor in IF's seemingly elevated up front demand in the US

 

As a parent, while both films will benefit from bored families, they feel like they're pulling from different groups.

 

IF is grabbing families where the parents want to see a movie and can convince their kids to watch this. But the primary draw is something the parents think they'll fundamentally enjoy.

 

Garfield is parents looking to entertain their kids. The parents are probably fairly neutral on it. Being Garfield which they're familiar with makes it a safe bet. It'll skew to younger families. 

 

I'm not sure if that makes sense, but at least in our household, it's almost two different conversations around the film. But I feel confident that the Garfield market is bigger.

[AniNate]

I did see a surprising amount of single sales looking at IF charts

[JonathanMB]

3 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

 

Ok I believe the hype now

 

Yeah, Garfield has a weirdly strong pull overseas; while 2006 sequel dropped over 60% from the 2004 movie, the overseas only dropped 10% and single-handedly saved the movie from being a flop. That movie made over 80% of its worldwide gross overseas; I wonder how this one's domestic/international breakdown will be.

[el sid]

The Fall Guy, counted today for tomorrow, had 865 sold tickets. Best sales in the AMC Universal Cinema in LA with 429 sold tickets. Remember when I said that GxK has fine presales in every state? Mmh.

Overall up mediocre 29% since Monday.

 

Average from comps (in very short form because it's after midnight here - Argylle, Nile, BT, TLC, Uncharted, Amsterdam, CW): 2.7M.

I said that it will go down and that number was to expect and is not that bad (and of course without EA shows) but still...the jump could have been bigger.

 

And I think - if I have the time to count tomorrow - that the Thursday comparison number looks even worse. But I'm absolutely convinced that only the WOM will decide if this film becomes a success or not.

 

By the way, the reviews in Germany are less enthusiastic. Good, but not great. Some people here seem to put all their hopes on a film that is more or less just made by and for Hollywood/LA. Other films in 2024 will be way less "niche". 

[AniNate]

I skimmed through the first Saturday showtimes for Garfield at the Tinseltown theater, only four sales so far and nothing for the EA screening. But yes I'm sure it'll have a lot of week-of sales and walkups

 

 

Edited May 1 by AniNate

[HummingLemon496]

4 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

 

Ok I believe the hype now

I absolutely love Reddit so I'm so glad you posted a Reddit post in here

[AniNate]

I have a love/hate relationship with them. Sometimes interesting stuff is there but also a lot of cynicism and idiocy. Such is the Internet I guess.

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I have a love/hate relationship with them. Sometimes interesting stuff is there but also a lot of cynicism and idiocy. Such is the Internet I guess.

But there's a lot of people on BOT who get riled up the second somebody posts something from Reddit, so I'm glad to see a pro-Reddit user on BOT

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Looking at Fall Guy EA walk ups and they're looking pretty good.

 

Started the day at 65, currently at 113, 74% increase.

 

That's with a half hour before showtime. I wouldn't be surprised if that lifts and gets to a full doubling.

 

It's usually hard for me to measure walk ups as data disappears once shows are 15 minutes in, but this feels like a positive sign. It's also a gorgeous day, probably the first great patio day of the season.

 

Edit: Missed a screening. It's actually 135 in sales. So it did double in walk ups today.

This might be a walkup heavy movie?  Why has nobody said that was a possibility..... Having said that it could just be that area.  At least a positive sign. I will take it.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/30/2024 at 7:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

THE FALL GUY

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
498	2103	100086	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

262

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

22

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.813x) of Civil War $2.36M

(1.442x) of Challengers $2.31M

Comps average: $2.33M

 

It's slipping fast against comps. Kind of a yikes update. I wonder if other markets are seeing this aswell. 

FLORIDA 

THE FALL GUY

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
503	2952	101725	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

849

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.957x) of Civil War $2.78M

(1.539x) of Challengers $2.46M

Comps average: $2.62M

 

The best day so far. Very good recovery i would say. Bodes well for walkups tomorrow. 

Edited May 2 by TheFlatLannister