The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CJohn]

The Fall Guy - 27/90 (under 100M, wtf is going on)

Apes - 45/145 (if good) 39/105 (if bad)

IF - 48/165

Furiosa - 31/38/100

Garfield - 28/38/110

 

RIP Cinemas

[BadOlCatSylvester]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

May is looking like a theater wide shutdown bankrupcy level event. What a disaster in the making.

The video game industry was just the beginning. I fully expect an exhibition bloodbath too to commence after this summer.

[TomThomas]

24 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

 The fact that this movie may be going from a mild disappointment to a possibly outright bomb now. What do people want? So it has to be 95-100%  or something on RT now for a movie like this to break out. Sigh

I don't think RT matters here, 95+% vs high 80s% wouldn't do a difference, people just want more capeshit. They reach for excuses to not show up to watch good movies, but as soon as something like Venom: The Last Dance releases, they'll all be there despite first 2 being garbage of the highest degree.

[Boxofficerules]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I actually have a positive post for the weekend thread all drafted up! But the lower the Fall Guy drops....

Tarot doing well?

[Flopped]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I actually have a positive post for the weekend thread all drafted up! But the lower the Fall Guy drops....

 

JarJar? 

[emoviefan]

The one silver lining The Fall Guy has right now is assuming WOM is good to great and with no massive openers to follow it should have legs. It wont turn it into a money maker but maybe save a little face. That's going to be all of May I guess not great openings and maybe legs.I am grasping here I know.

[emoviefan]

15 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Tarot doing well?

The horse is a rotting stinking carcus again. 

[Cmasterclay]

The tldr version of my positive post is that movies always find a way to rebound and this is far from the first ebb - but it's just a matter of whether the theaters themselves survive. If they do, and stay open, it'll be fine.

[CJohn]

17 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The video game industry was just the beginning. I fully expect an exhibition bloodbath too to commence after this summer.

The console market is in complete collapse. Kinda crazy to see it happening live. Even the Switch 2 feels like it will inevitably drop from the previous console.

[Cmasterclay]

Huh? I thought it was home entertainment options like video games killing movies? TV ratings outside the NFL in a freefall too. Is everything just fucked?

Edited May 1 by Cmasterclay

[John Marston]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Huh? I thought it was home entertainment options like video games killing movies? TV ratings outside the NFL in a freefall too. Is everything just fucked?

 

looks like people are just content to scroll on their phones in their free time

[emoviefan]

24 minutes ago, Eric the Fall Guy said:

No. It has to be based on a popular IP people recognize from their childhoods, and then it can break out. If you dare to make something original or even based on something obscure, you're doomed to failure 90% of the time. Audiences are frankly repulsed with anything that isn't something they are already familiar with. Kind of disconcerting if I'm being honest.

I know. I am one of the people who pushed back on you with that and got annoyed but when something as mainstream and by most accounts dam good as the Fall Guy and stars two people from the marketing phenon of last year is seen as to risky and unfamiliar to audiences then we are in some weird unpleasant place. I don't know maybe it will shock the hell out of us and the walkups will blow up this weekend. Probably not but going to keep hoping

[ringedmortality]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

looks like people are just content to scroll on their phones in their free time

 

This thread is already getting way out of hand. But, it's hard to find people now-a-days with interests. Even people who previously were into movies or whatever, they now just spend their nights on TikTok. Scrolling hours and hours watching bite sized videos which TikTok's insane algorithm makes it so easy to do. They'e slowly rotting away their attention spans and their personality.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Can y'all please go to another thread.

[emoviefan]

Yep I am going to stop doom posting. I used to hate and make fun of those who did and now I am doing it.And this is not the thread for it.  I am going to hope for a pleasant surprise this  weekend. Presales are not everything. Walkups can surprise. And if not nothing I can do about it. Just go enjoy the movies coming out and tell people they are missing out.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

IF

 

Thursday 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
388	1026	75194	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

COMPS

T-16

(1.131x) of Civil War $3.28M

 

This is very good considering the lower amount of showings it has

Edited May 1 by TheFlatLannister

[ThomasNicole]

I mean, obviously there’s many factors into this discussion but the slate have to be strong first lol 

 

The Fall Guy looks fun but it’s concept isn’t remotely fresh and outside of the meta aspect, it does look similar to some other very recent movies that didn’t do that well either.
 

Mad Max is a niche franchise, if Fury Road wasn’t a big hit there’s really no reason to think a prequel without Charlize will be. 
 

Garfield already failed in theaters when it was more popular than it is now. IF can surprise but it’s idea isn’t that exciting either. 
 

And Apes is a very good franchise but also had limited appeal. 
 

Honestly? If Hollywood wants to compete with the game and streaming industry, maybe do more interesting / fresh movies and learn how to market original things again? Or even better, don’t spend months fighting with creatives to fuck them even more. 

With that said, i do think The Fall Guy can be the worse performer of May, so the month can still improve. Sales for IF, Garfield and Apes looks somewhat decent to me.

 

Edited May 1 by ThomasNicole

[AniNate]

I feel like Elemental might be something of a decent comp IF available. Was probably the best example of a recent original kids film with something of a pedigree hook.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I mean, obviously there’s many factors into this discussion but the slate have to be strong first lol 

 

The Fall Guy looks fun but it’s concept isn’t remotely fresh and outside of the meta aspect, it does look similar to some other very recent movies that didn’t do that well either.
 

With that said, i do think The Fall Guy can be the worse performer of May, so the month can still improve. Sales for IF, Garfield and Apes looks somewhat decent to me.

 

And yet The Fall Guy may be the best reviewed of all of them but whatever I am beating a dead horse at this point.

[WebSurfer]

I think legs are gonna be a big factor for many of these releases.

 

Not doom posting just yet until the results are in.