The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 5/3/2024 at 6:48 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-7 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 75

New Sales: 5

Growth: 7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/3

Early Evening: 61/7

Late Evening: 8/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 31/7

IMAX: 21/6

VIP: 21/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 40

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 2

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.597x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.115x Dune 2 for $1.2M

1.154x GB:FE for $5.4M

0.332x GxK for $3.3M

0.357x HG: BoSS for $2.1M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

Staying pretty steady. Just waiting on the review drop at this point to kick start something.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-6 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 83

New Sales: 8

Growth: 11%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/3

Early Evening: 67/7

Late Evening: 10/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 37/7

IMAX: 21/6

VIP: 25/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 51

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 5

New Sales: 11

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.675x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview) for $5.3M

0.117x Dune 2 for $1.2M

1.221x GB:FE for $5.7M

0.335x GxK for $3.3M

0.364x HG: BoSS for $2.1M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

I've added Fall Guy actuals, which has helped bump up the comp average.

 

Growth remains steady, letting it hold ground. Given it has a lower baseline, there's probably some room for movement here to get to a $4-5M range on opening, but I don't think there's much more room than that to grow.

[vafrow]

On 4/30/2024 at 4:59 AM, vafrow said:

 

IF, D2, T-17 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 0

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 0/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/4

VIP: 0/4

 

Still no sales. I might next report back on the weekend unless I start seeing some movement. There doesn't appear to be much up front interest here.

 

Edit:

 

I went back and tried to pull from a wider area. For a 100 km radius (which captures the whole broader region, probably about an 8M population base), it's sold 11 tickets.

 

I do have data that I pulled from the first few days of The Haunted Mansion, which sold 7 tickets in that radius. That would technically give this a comp of $4.9M, but I'd take that with a grain of salt. Haunted Mansion did ramp up near the end, but I'm pretty sure it underindexed here overall. Plus, it went on sale earlier. I'm using T-26 data versus T-17 for IF. 

 

I also would expect that a Ryan Reynolds movie plays a little stronger up here. He leans in hard in his Canadian identity,

 

IF, T-13 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 3

New Sales: 3

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 3/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 1/6

Dolby: 2/4

VIP: 0/4

 

Comps

0.125x Wonka for $0.4M

0.056x KFP4 for $0.2M

 

 

100 km radius (40 theatres) track

 

Sales: 35

 

Comp:

0.753x Haunted Mansion for $2.3M

 

Numbers ate still really low, making the standard track fairly useless. I did do a larger 100km radius track, encompassing the broader southern Ontaro market (~8M population, MTC4 being about 70-80% of the market). Even against Haunted Mansion, which underindexed here, it's not doing well. 

 

I'd be curious if it's doing just as bad in other regions in Canada. @DAJK, @Tinalera, if you guys have a chance, can you take a peak. Reynolds should be a draw out of BC I would hope.

[AniNate]

I feel like total weekend tracking might be more useful for family movies than the preview day. Fri/Sat have been where the boatload of sales have been from what I've seen.

[AniNate]

I did take a look at some big city Cinemarks like LA and Dallas and it did seem pretty empty there too. Idk, I guess Canton is just a really weird presale bubble for it

 

 

Edited May 4 by AniNate

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

The Garfield Movie T-22: 47.67% Awareness, 49.72% Interest

Sight T-22: 12.45% Awareness, 34.09% Interest

Inside Out 2 T-43: 51.81% Awareness, 51.92% Interest

Twisters T-78: 43.23% Awareness, 55.89% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-176: 34.34% Awareness, 54.83% Interest

Red One T-197: 21.46% Awareness, 40.77% Interest

 

Tarot T-1: 31.85% Awareness, 46.1% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 44% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

The Fall Guy T-1: 48.77% Awareness, 51% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Tentpole Awareness: N/A

Final Interest: 91% chance of 10M, 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-8: 64.05% Awareness, 57.39% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 29% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 80M, 20% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-57: 28.05% Awareness, 51.2% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M, 11% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 8% chance of 40M

T-60 Interest: 97% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

IF, T-13 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 3

New Sales: 3

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 3/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 1/6

Dolby: 2/4

VIP: 0/4

 

Comps

0.125x Wonka for $0.4M

0.056x KFP4 for $0.2M

 

 

100 km radius (40 theatres) track

 

Sales: 35

 

Comp:

0.753x Haunted Mansion for $2.3M

 

Numbers ate still really low, making the standard track fairly useless. I did do a larger 100km radius track, encompassing the broader southern Ontaro market (~8M population, MTC4 being about 70-80% of the market). Even against Haunted Mansion, which underindexed here, it's not doing well. 

 

I'd be curious if it's doing just as bad in other regions in Canada. @DAJK, @Tinalera, if you guys have a chance, can you take a peak. Reynolds should be a draw out of BC I would hope.

Selling pretty well so far here, but Free Guy opened to like the equivalent of 80M here in 2021.

[emoviefan]

27 minutes ago, Eric Loves Rey said:

Quorum Updates

The Garfield Movie T-22: 47.67% Awareness, 49.72% Interest

Sight T-22: 12.45% Awareness, 34.09% Interest

Inside Out 2 T-43: 51.81% Awareness, 51.92% Interest

Twisters T-78: 43.23% Awareness, 55.89% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-176: 34.34% Awareness, 54.83% Interest

Red One T-197: 21.46% Awareness, 40.77% Interest

 

Tarot T-1: 31.85% Awareness, 46.1% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 44% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

The Fall Guy T-1: 48.77% Awareness, 51% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Tentpole Awareness: N/A

Final Interest: 91% chance of 10M, 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-8: 64.05% Awareness, 57.39% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 29% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 80M, 20% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-57: 28.05% Awareness, 51.2% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M, 11% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 8% chance of 40M

T-60 Interest: 97% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Yeah those Apes numbers are pretty promising. If the reviews match the reactions then it should do at least 50 maybe even 60. That would be great. It would make next weekend much better than what we are going through right now.

[Boxofficerules]

38 minutes ago, Eric Loves Rey said:

Quorum Updates

The Garfield Movie T-22: 47.67% Awareness, 49.72% Interest

Sight T-22: 12.45% Awareness, 34.09% Interest

Inside Out 2 T-43: 51.81% Awareness, 51.92% Interest

Twisters T-78: 43.23% Awareness, 55.89% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-176: 34.34% Awareness, 54.83% Interest

Red One T-197: 21.46% Awareness, 40.77% Interest

 

Tarot T-1: 31.85% Awareness, 46.1% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 44% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

The Fall Guy T-1: 48.77% Awareness, 51% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Tentpole Awareness: N/A

Final Interest: 91% chance of 10M, 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-8: 64.05% Awareness, 57.39% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 29% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 80M, 20% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-57: 28.05% Awareness, 51.2% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M, 11% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 8% chance of 40M

T-60 Interest: 97% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

I don't understand Quorum, I would have thought A Quiet Place would have a much better chance at hitting $10 million. I would have thought it would have a 59% chance at hitting $30 million.

[emoviefan]

16 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I don't understand Quorum, I would have thought A Quiet Place would have a much better chance at hitting $10 million. I would have thought it would have a 59% chance at hitting $30 million.

Honestly I don't think the Qurom numbers mean much to the last few weeks before release. Like the warning signs were there for the Fall Guy in these last few weeks and Apes is looking pretty strong in it's final few weeks.

[vafrow]

On 4/28/2024 at 8:20 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-26, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 0

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 0/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 0/4

3D Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

EA - Sunday May 19

Sales: 0

Showtimes: 2

Theatres: 2

 

Still no sales. I have KFP4 and Wonka both set up for comps, but need some actual sales to be able to do anything with them.

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-20, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 0

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 0/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 0/4

3D Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

EA - Sunday May 19

Sales: 3

Showtimes: 2

Theatres: 2

 

100km radius 

Previews: 18 (38 theatres)

EA: 44 (13 theatres)

 

Still no sales for my core sample for previews. But I did the larger sweep, which shows the interest right now is the Sunday early access shows. Looking at sales patterns, it's mainly blocks of 3/4 tickets, so likely families grabbing some. It's worth nothing that the May holiday in Canada is the weekend of May 17-20th, not the weekend after with Memorial Day. I can see families prioritizing getting out the holiday weekend when they have more time.

 

 

[Boxofficerules]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
The Strangers	T-12	Jax	5	11	-1	6	1,110	0.54%
		Phx	5	11	5	8	1,388	0.58%
		Ral	6	11	0	14	1,222	1.15%
	Total		16	33	4	28	3,720	0.75%

 

Day 2 comps

 - Exorcist 6 - .903x (2.11m)

 - Insidious 5 - .583x (2.92m)

 - Scream VI - .129x (647k)

That good or bad?

[Speedorito]

13 hours ago, Squire said:

Maybe this is controversial, but I don’t think Furiosa is gonna open that high. I’m thinking more like $35-40M. 
 

I can’t remember the source, but it was reported screenings had a divisive audience reaction because the movie isn’t paced or structured like Fury Road. Miller has basically confirmed the comparison with Fury Road in interviews. Plus, it seems the trailers haven’t worked for a good chunk of people. 
 

My prediction is the movie becomes a Dial of Destiny situation where mixed reception out of Cannes leads to poor pre-sales and fan excitement for the movie. 

Yeah I could definitely those numbers switched for the films.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

8 hours ago, Eric Loves Rey said:

Quorum Updates

The Garfield Movie T-22: 47.67% Awareness, 49.72% Interest

Sight T-22: 12.45% Awareness, 34.09% Interest

Inside Out 2 T-43: 51.81% Awareness, 51.92% Interest

Twisters T-78: 43.23% Awareness, 55.89% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-176: 34.34% Awareness, 54.83% Interest

Red One T-197: 21.46% Awareness, 40.77% Interest

 

Tarot T-1: 31.85% Awareness, 46.1% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 44% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

The Fall Guy T-1: 48.77% Awareness, 51% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Tentpole Awareness: N/A

Final Interest: 91% chance of 10M, 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-8: 64.05% Awareness, 57.39% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 29% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 80M, 20% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-57: 28.05% Awareness, 51.2% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M, 11% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 8% chance of 40M

T-60 Interest: 97% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Am I the only one who thinks Twisters is still a huge wildcard? If its a bad tornado season in the US, the film won't be able to market as well as if it's a calm season.

[MightyDargon]

7 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Am I the only one who thinks Twisters is still a huge wildcard? If its a bad tornado season in the US, the film won't be able to market as well as if it's a calm season.

It's....not gonna be that marketable anyway IMO because it's a remake of something already done with an older, better cast, but yeah, deadly tornadoes do not qualify as escapism anymore.

[AniNate]

Tornado season typically peaks before July, and they're not the kind of thing that even at their worst get wall to wall national press coverage for a week like big hurricanes do.

 

I am skeptical about it just from a general franchise cashgrab perspective, and I see that as being a more likely factor for a disappointing box office

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/30/2024 at 10:00 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

IF

 

Thursday 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
388	1026	75194	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

COMPS

T-16

(1.131x) of Civil War $3.28M

 

This is very good considering the lower amount of showings it has

FLORIDA 

IF

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
388	1216	75194	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(1.000x) of Civil War $2.90M

(0.949x) of Fall Guy $2.18M

Comps AVG: $2.54M

 

After a strong start, this has cooled off quite a bit.  

[emoviefan]

24 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Tornado season typically peaks before July, and they're not the kind of thing that even at their worst get wall to wall national press coverage for a week like big hurricanes do.

 

I am skeptical about it just from a general franchise cashgrab perspective, and I see that as being a more likely factor for a disappointing box office

If it does hit big I bet some of it;s biggest areas are in the Midwest. The original played strong in those Areas. If the movie is respectful and not disaster porn it should be fine.

[AniNate]

Yeah I mean, I think people who deal with it on a regular basis always have had a certain gallows sense of humor about it, and the movie wasn't really about indulging in the destruction so much as the thrill of vicariously living through the storm chaser professionals. It still treats it seriously when innocent people get caught up in it.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

I’m convinced Twisters is gonna be big. If reviews are good I might even say huge.

[AniNate]

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES - Thurs/Fri

 

Cinemark Cuyahoga Falls and XD - 43
Cinemark Tinseltown North Canton and XD - 153
Cinemark Bistro North Canton - 10
Cinemark Valley View - 122

 

These presales leave something to be desired, especially for the Bistro. I guess the "dine-in" experience doesn't have the luster it used to have compared to the PLF of the theater a mile away.