The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/14/2024 at 10:50 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	135	42	201	18626	1.08

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		122	26	60.7
MTC1:		119	17	59.2
Alamo:		12	2	5.97
Other chains:		70	23	34.83

 

Comps:

0.36x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.39 Million (17 theaters)

0.79x Migration: $1.18 Million (17 theaters)

0.36x Wonka: $1.25 Million (17 theaters)

0.58x Wish (TUE): $1.04 Million (17 theaters)

0.97x Trolls (THU): $1.26 Million (17 theaters)

0.43x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.33 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.24 Million

 

Most comps did move the right direction, Wish and its lower ATP is bringing the average down, but if it keeps trending up perhaps I can see a finish around 1.5. One thing to peep at: the MTC1 ratio is unusually large compared to other family releases. At T-2, other releases' MTC1 % was at:

 

KFP4: 51%

Migration: 34%

Wonka: 59%

Wish: 35%

Trolls: 24%

 

So much more comparable to Wonka and KFP4; maybe something to think about when looking at keyser's numbers and thinking of the ratio there.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	136	120	321	18766	1.71

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		187	65	58.26
MTC1:		181	62	56.39
Alamo:		12	0	3.74
Other chains:		128	58	39.88

 

Comps:

0.4x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.53 Million (17 theaters)

0.97x Migration: $1.46 Million (17 theaters)

0.47x Wonka: $1.63 Million (17 theaters)

0.74x Wish (TUE): $1.33 Million (17 theaters)

1.23x Trolls (THU): $1.6 Million (17 theaters)

0.47x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.47 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.5 Million

 

Really good update here, FINALLY! Been waiting for this. I will be able to give a T-0 update tomorrow and I will give a prediction then, but this is encouraging for sure. With this growth now maybe shooting for a finish near 1.75 or maybe even approach 2.

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/14/2024 at 10:59 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 22 theaters	46	1	21	3982	0.53
Saturday May 15 EA: 2 theaters	2	11	45	380	11.84
TOTALS:	48	12	66	4362	1.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		17	-1	80.95
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		4	2	19.05

 

Comps (THU + EA):

0.29x Challengers (THU): $465k

0.11x Civil War (THU): $305k

Drive-Away Dolls: Missed

0.67x Ferrari: $290k (17 theaters)

0.44x Iron Claw: $295k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $340k

 

The Strangers Chapter 1 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	67	26	96	6116	1.57

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		66	12	68.75
Alamo:		5	5	5.21
Other chains:		25	9	26.04

 

Comps:

0.72x Abigail: $720k

1.43x First Omen: $1.04 Million

Immaculate: Missed

0.6x Thanksgiving: $605k (17 theaters)

0.31x Exorcist Believer: $895k (17 theaters)

0.37x Saw X: $745k (17 theaters)

0.41x Nun II: $1.27 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $880k

 

Not much movement here

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Back to Black (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-1 hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 22 theaters	46	15	36	3982	0.9
Saturday May 15 EA: 2 theaters	2	16	61	380	16.05
TOTALS:	48	31	97	4362	2.22

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		24	7	66.67
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		12	8	33.33

 

Comps (THU + EA):

0.29x Challengers (THU): $465k

0.12x Civil War (THU): $340k

0.82x Drive-Away Dolls: $285k

0.6x Ferrari: $260k (17 theaters)

0.55x Iron Claw: $370k (17 theaters)

 

Average: $345k

 

Probably looking at EA around $100k from these numbers, it's limited to Dolby only though so it's quite tiny. I do think I will be able to give an update tomorrow as well so I will hold off on a prediction until then

 

The Strangers Chapter 1 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	67	58	154	6116	2.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		83	17	53.9
Alamo:		7	2	4.55
Other chains:		64	39	41.56

 

Comps:

0.81x Abigail: $815k

1.25x First Omen: $910k

1.63x Immaculate: $895k (17 theaters)

0.75x Thanksgiving: $750k (17 theaters)

0.39x Exorcist Believer: $1.12 Million (17 theaters)

0.5x Nun II: $1.56 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1 Million

 

Perhaps this will follow the Nun and the Exorcist comps, but I am not fully convinced. I'll just go with the average here and call it a day with my prediction: $1 Million, +/- 0.2 

Edited May 16 by abracadabra1998

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

IF - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

2 XD showings: 4/476

8 2D showings: 45/639

Total: 49/1,115 (4.2% sold) 

 

Friday:

5 XD showings: 29/1,175

11 2D showings: 37/1,060

Total: 66/2,235 (3% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 115/3,350 (3.4% sold) [+21]

 

Even with no comps to go off, this growth seems pretty weaksauce. I guess we'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

 

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

7 2D showings: 27/716 (3.8% sold)

 

Comp:

Tarot: $1.14 mil

 

Friday:

10 2D showings: 37/952 (3.9% sold)

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $5.22 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 64/1,668 (3.8% sold) [+33]

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $5.44 mil

 

Damn! More than double from yesterday's count. Curious to see if it keeps up the momentum going forward. 

IF - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

2 XD showings: 7/476

8 2D showings: 48/639

Total: 55/1,115 (4.9% sold)

 

Friday:

5 XD showings: 51/1,175

11 2D showings: 66/1,060

Total: 117/2,235 (5.2% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 172/3,350 (5.1% sold) [+57]

 

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

7 2D showings: 29/716 (4.1% sold) 

 

Comp:

Tarot: $1.09 mil

 

Friday:

10 2D showings: 51/952 (5.4% sold)

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $4.68 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 80/1,668 (4.8% sold) [+16]

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $5.23 mil

 

Good growth for IF, especially after Tuesday's abysmal sales. Decent day for Strangers. Didn't quite continue off yesterday's big bump, but still holding well against the Tarot comp. 

 

Will report IF's Thursday T-1 hour total at 4 pm CST. Gonna be at work around Strangers' first showtime at 6 so no report on the T-0 hour until later tomorrow night (along with the Friday night outlooks).

[keysersoze123]

On 5/14/2024 at 9:42 PM, keysersoze123 said:

IF MTC1 

Previews(T-2) - 14352/303208 251919.45 1899 shows +2026

Friday - 19252/776155 305448.75 4729 shows +3607

 

Pace is really meh for T-2. Probably finishing around 35K and around 600kish gross. 1.75m ish for previews. OW should be similar to what I saw yesterday for now. 

 

 

IF MTC1 Previews (T-1) - 18208/306866 315496.11 1927 shows +3856

 

Dont think even if it doubles the gross, 2m is locked. But even if it does, it would barely do that much. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23849	24051	202	0.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

202

 

Day 1  Comps.               SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	110.99		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	5.11%		6.94m
Minion 2	297.06		68	68		0/163	24356/24424	0.28%		6591	3.06%		31.93m
TLM	44.49		454	454		0/153	21451/21905	2.07%		6561	3.08%		4.58m
GBFE	96.19		210	210		0/111	18011/18221	1.15%		2197	9.19%		4.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       58/10075  [0.58% sold]
Matinee:     25/2674  [0.93% | 12.38% of all tickets sold]
3D:                7/3852  [0.18% | 3.47% of all tickets sold]
PLF:             81/9686  [0.84% | 40.10% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Since some people are already acting like Chicken Littles, I want to make something very clear.  I really do not have good comps for this movie.  Like, at all.  Especially for D1. 

 

With that in mind, I did some digging and did manage to get the Elemental D1 numbers out of the old Tracking thread:

 

IO2 = 5.45946x Elemental on D1 [13.10m]

 

Now will Inside Out 2 be as backloaded as Elemental?  Well it's tough to literally sell 5.5x times the amount of tickets on the final couple of days that Elemental did, so perhaps not.  But it does show how fracking backloaded purely kids animation is.

 

Anyway, this is 30 days out and it isn't a CBM film (like AtSV) or CBM-adjacent film (like Incredibles 2), so... maybe cool the jets a bit on the Sad Tennant faces a bit, eh?

 

NB:  The Sonic 2 comp is perhaps a little concerning.  On the other hand, nearly a weeks more of pre-sales so not exactly a great comp.

 

NB2:  No, I don't have D1 comps for KFP4, I don't think.  I'd have to trawl through this thread to check to see if I made a post about it  as I didn't save that info and I'm running late right now.

 

NB3: If folks want to suggest other comps, I'm game, but I might not get to it until tomorrow as I'm turning in early tonight.

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23820	24051	231	0.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

Day 2  Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	106.94		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		3951	5.85%		6.68m
Minion 2	190.91		53	121		0/165	25079/25200	0.48%		6591	3.50%		20.52m
TLM	42.46		90	544		0/154	21462/22006	2.47%		6561	3.52%		4.37m
Wonka	316.44		16	73		0/109	18862/18935	0.39%		1975	11.70%		11.08m
Aqua 2	132.76		28	174		0/78	13783/13957	1.25%		2629	8.79%		5.97m
GBFE	93.15		38	248		0/114	18650/18898	1.31%		2197	10.51%		4.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       66/10075  [0.66% sold]
Matinee:      27/2674  [1.01% | 11.69% of all tickets sold]
3D:                8/3852  [0.21% | 3.46% of all tickets sold]
PLF:            92/9686  [0.95% | 39.83% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not much to say.  Already 'bout to hit in the loooooooong stretch of low sales.  Likely to shift to T-x comps (such as they are) tomorrow;  no later than Sat night.

 

Did decided to other comps after seeing them in a couple of blocks.  Also had the wrong comp for Minion's 2 last night (which I'll correct anon), but since it's clearly an outlier (and still is), eh. 

[vafrow]

On 5/15/2024 at 7:20 AM, vafrow said:

 

IF, T-2 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.6

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/7

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 7/6

Dolby: 4/4

VIP: 8/2

 

Comps

0.160x Wonka for $0.6M

0.057x KFP4 for $0.2M

 

Average: $0.4M

 

Eek

 

Zero sales day only a few days before previews, when you're dealing with a very low baseline. I'm not sure what's happening here.

 

IF, T-1 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 42

New Sales: 23

Growth: 121%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.5

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 32/7

Late Evening: 10/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 13/6

Dolby: 19/4

VIP: 10/2

 

Comps

0.240x Wonka for $0.8

0.100x KFP4 for $0.4M

 

Average: $0.6M

 

Well, we finally got something. It still lags behind comps, and if I could be bothered to track walk ups, I'm guessing this will do okay. But it's still lagging some very reasonable comps by a large margin here. Hopefully it's faring better elsewhere.

Edited May 16 by vafrow

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

Insid Out 2, D1, T-30 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 2/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 2/6

IMAX: 0/4

VIP: 0/4

 

With the site glitching yesterday, it might account for the slow start. But, what's interesting is the format breakdown. Nothing is being made available in anything close to a regular showtime. The one non 3D showing in Dolby is a matinee showing. Everything else is carrying a hefty premium. 

 

They'll likely release regular showtimes closer to release, but right now, it's priced to get eager fans to pay the premium formats.

 

Inside Out 2, D2, T-29 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 2/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 2/6

IMAX: 0/4

VIP: 0/4

 

No new sales. Whatever glitches in the system on day 1 didn't push sales to day 2.

 

I still think the lack of base ticket options will push families to wait. Cineplex has jacked up the cost of premium formats, plus they're throwing in an increase for opening weekend of major releases. It adds up quickly for families. 

[vafrow]

On 5/12/2024 at 7:46 AM, vafrow said:

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, T-12 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 45

New Sales: 11

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 2/3

Early Evening: 34/7

Late Evening: 9/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 2/4

IMAX: 35/6

VIP: 5/5

4DX: 2/2

 

Comps

0.095x Dune 2 for $0.9M

1.098x KOTPOTA for $5.5M

0.381x HG:BoSS for $2.2M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

It had a good day. 

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, T-8 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 74

New Sales: 11

Growth since T-12: 64%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 6/3

Early Evening: 45/7

Late Evening: 23/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 13/4

IMAX: 51/6

VIP: 7/5

4DX: 3/2

 

Comps

0.130x Dune 2 for $1.3M

1.057x KOTPOTA for $5.3M

0.383x HG:BoSS for $2.2M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

Comps are showing as steady since the last update, but it actually dipped quite a bit this week before rebounding today.

 

Of the comps, I would hold the Apes movie as the most important. Advance ticket buying has been so off in this market recently for some reason. Holding pace with the most recent success is a good sign I'd say.

 

 

[filmlover]

The latest ads for Back to Black are now calling it "Amy Winehouse: Back to Black" at the last second in probable response to the low tracking. Worked out great for Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody (also a last minute title change)!

[crazymoviekid]

On 5/14/2024 at 11:32 PM, crazymoviekid said:

IF:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 12 Tickets

 

KFP4: $1.83M

Migration: $2.33M

Wonka: $2.72M

Elemental: $1.08M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $4.03M

 

Comps mostly are up. Adjusting up to around $2M-$2.25M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 17 Tickets

Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

KFP4: $6.76M

Migration: $6.02M

Wonka: $6.87M

Elemental: $9.13M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $22.26M

 

unless this plays like Elemental, we're aiming around $6.5M-$7M.

 

Estimated OW: $25M-$27M

IF:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 15 Tickets

 

KFP4: $1.62M

Migration: $1.96M

Wonka: $2.70M

Elemental: $.97M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $4.89M

 

Not a great day. Wonka is giving me hope, but back down to $1.75M-$2M.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 30 Tickets

Theater 2: 40 Tickets

 

KFP4: $7.45M

Migration: $6.61M

Wonka: $7.21M

Elemental: $5.92M

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile: $15.28M

 

Pretty good day. Bumping up to $7M-$7.5M. 

 

Estimate OW: $27M-$29M

[crazymoviekid]

On 5/14/2024 at 11:33 PM, crazymoviekid said:

The Strangers: Chapter 1

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 5 Tickets

 

Tarot: $1.16M

Imaginary: $.67M

Night Swim: $2.09M

Pope's Exorcist: $.63M

 

Comps leveling off. Adjusting up to $1M.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 5 Tickets

 

Tarot: $7.95M

Imaginary: $9.75M

Night Swim: $5.48M

Pope's Exorcist: $17.00M

 

Wouldn't trust these just yet. Definitely on the lower end.

The Strangers: Chapter 1

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets

Theater 2: 8 Tickets

 

Tarot: $1.43M

Imaginary: $1.00M

Night Swim: $2.01M

Pope's Exorcist: $.50M

 

Decent day. Feeling an inch past $1.25M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 12 Tickets

Theater 2: 7 Tickets

 

Tarot: $4.36M

Imaginary: $4.07M

Night Swim: $5.15M

Pope's Exorcist: $3.82M

 

Much better comps. Aiming now between $4M-$5M

 

Estimated OW: $14M-$17M

[crazymoviekid]

On 5/14/2024 at 11:35 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Back to Black:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets 

Theater 2: 4 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $.28M

Whitney Houston: $.22M

Downton Abbey 2: $.14M

 

Knocking this down to $.25M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets 

Theater 2: 11 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $1.08M

Whitney Houston: $1.31M

Downton Abbey 2: $1.13M

 

Despite relatively strong sales, comps are low around $1.25M.

Back to Black:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 6 Tickets 

Theater 2: 10 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $.46M

Whitney Houston: $.39M

Downton Abbey 2: $.32M

 

We're back up to $.3M-$.5M.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 13 Tickets 

Theater 2: 14 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $1.15M

Whitney Houston: $1.35M

Downton Abbey 2: $1.14M

 

Pretty damn consistent. Still around $1.15M-$1.4M

 

Estimated OW: $4.5M-$5.5M

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-1	Jax	5	14	1	6	1,416	0.42%
		Phx	7	16	17	47	1,554	3.02%
		Ral	7	14	4	24	1,316	1.82%
	Total		19	44	22	77	4,286	1.80%
Back to Black (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	2	2	15	395	3.80%
		Phx	1	1	3	14	208	6.73%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	0	0.00%
	Total		4	4	5	29	603	4.81%
IF	T-1	Jax	5	36	30	157	4,816	3.26%
		Phx	7	40	19	115	5,833	1.97%
		Ral	8	44	7	79	5,899	1.34%
	Total		20	120	56	351	16,548	2.12%
The Strangers	T-1	Jax	5	16	24	65	1,507	4.31%
		Phx	7	22	18	80	2,237	3.58%
		Ral	7	20	18	64	2,022	3.17%
	Total		19	58	60	209	5,766	3.62%

 

IF T-1 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .251x (1.28m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .469x (1.36m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .478x (1.62m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .483x (1.62m)

 - Lightyear (Thu) - .297x (1.19m)

 - Elemental - .731x (1.54m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 3.28x (3.13m)

 - Super Pets - 1.186x (2.67m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.309x (2.72m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2m

 

Raising my expectations to 1.5 - 1.75m range.  I don't really have a good feel for what age this is playing to.

 

Strangers T-1 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .381x (1.91m)

 - Talk to Me - .85x (1.06m)

 - Abigail - 1.77x (1.77m)

 - Candyman - .711x (1.43m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .487x (1.3m)

 - Beast - 1.26x (1.19m)

 - Nun II - .51x (1.31m)

 - Smile (Thu) - 1.2x (2.09m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.49m

 

Back to Black (Total) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Respect - 1.01x (696k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .341x (255k)

 - House of Gucci - .292x (402k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-0	Jax	5	14	5	11	1,416	0.78%
		Phx	7	17	9	56	1,723	3.25%
		Ral	7	14	1	25	1,262	1.98%
	Total		19	45	15	92	4,401	2.09%
IF	T-0	Jax	5	43	27	184	5,590	3.29%
		Phx	7	40	52	167	5,833	2.86%
		Ral	8	48	45	124	6,527	1.90%
	Total		20	131	124	475	17,950	2.65%
The Strangers	T-0	Jax	5	17	56	121	1,593	7.60%
		Phx	7	22	49	129	2,237	5.77%
		Ral	8	25	36	100	2,310	4.33%
	Total		20	64	141	350	6,140	5.70%

 

IF T-0 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .271x (1.38m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .475x (1.38m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .478x (1.42m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .439x (1.47m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 3.52x (2.07m)

 - Elemental - .709x (1.5m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 1.84x (1.76m)

 - Super Pets - 1.035x (2.33m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.189x (2.58m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.78m

Growth model forecast - 1.46m

 

Sticking to the 1.5m - 1.75m range.  I'm looking for a +40% final day that would finish at 1.8m avg comps and 1.62m growth forecast.   Some other comps I'm keeping my eye on: Free Guy (1.55m), Dog (1.51m), and Jungle Cruise (1.59m).  I'm not ruling out 2m, but it would need to have a very good day.  

 

Strangers T-0 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .343x (1.71m)

 - Talk to Me - .91x (1.14m)

 - Abigail - 1.75x (1.75m)

 - Candyman - .677x (1.36m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .518x (1.38m)

 - Beast - 1.52x (1.43m)

 - Nun II - .6x (1.53m)

 - Smile (Thu) - 1.74x (3.03m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.64m

Growth model forecast - 1.43m

 

Keeping on track to match IF tonight.  Looking for a +70% today to finish right at 1.6m

 

 

Back to Black (Total) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Respect - .807x (556k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .304x (227k)

 - House of Gucci - .267x (367k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

IF - 175/6,121

 - Super Pets - .621x (1.37m)

 - Bad Guys - 1.944x (2.24m)

 - Lightyear - .213x (1.04m)

 

Strangers - 224/4,161

 - Abigail - 3.446x (3.446m)

 - Northman - 1.409x (1.9m)

- Nope - .292x (1.87m)

Santikos Tracking

 

IF - 269/6,121

 - Super Pets - .517x (1.14m)

 - Bad Guys - 1.78x (2.05m)

 - Lightyear - .19x (932k)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.057x (1.54m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .447x (1.7m)

 - Indiana Jones - .227x (1.63m)

 

Strangers - 383/4,161

 - Abigail - 3.3x (3.3m)

 - Northman - 1.658x (2.24m)

 - Nope - .301x (1.93m)

 - M3GAN - .88x (2.42m)

 - Insidious 5 - .138x (688k)

 - Scream VI - .147x (841k)

 - Black Phone - .508x (1.32m)

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23820	24051	231	0.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

Day 2  Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	106.94		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		3951	5.85%		6.68m
Minion 2	190.91		53	121		0/165	25079/25200	0.48%		6591	3.50%		20.52m
TLM	42.46		90	544		0/154	21462/22006	2.47%		6561	3.52%		4.37m
Wonka	316.44		16	73		0/109	18862/18935	0.39%		1975	11.70%		11.08m
Aqua 2	132.76		28	174		0/78	13783/13957	1.25%		2629	8.79%		5.97m
GBFE	93.15		38	248		0/114	18650/18898	1.31%		2197	10.51%		4.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       66/10075  [0.66% sold]
Matinee:      27/2674  [1.01% | 11.69% of all tickets sold]
3D:                8/3852  [0.21% | 3.46% of all tickets sold]
PLF:            92/9686  [0.95% | 39.83% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not much to say.  Already 'bout to hit in the loooooooong stretch of low sales.  Likely to shift to T-x comps (such as they are) tomorrow;  no later than Sat night.

 

Did decided to other comps after seeing them in a couple of blocks.  Also had the wrong comp for Minion's 2 last night (which I'll correct anon), but since it's clearly an outlier (and still is), eh. 

Will like to see Toy Story 4 comp. I know ton of adjustments and stuff but still would like to see just for sake of it.

[emoviefan]

Still scratching my head at the 30m+ for IF forecasts. Nothing seems to indicate that in Presales so unless the WOM and Walkups blowup don't see it with the eh reviews. It could happen though. You never know.

[emoviefan]

We are going to have all this handwringing over IO 2 for the next few weeks and just like KFP4  it will blow up at the last minute and be fine in the end. 

[AniNate]

All I can say is if you look at Tinseltown Canton presales the IF projections seem pretty reasonable. I will grant they might've booked more screens than necessary for it.

 

I'd count them up myself but I'm in the middle of work and there's too many to accurately multitask there

 

 

Edited May 16 by AniNate

[Maggie]

Bad Boys 4 tickets on sale. Curios about this.

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

IF MTC1 Previews (T-1) - 18208/306866 315496.11 1927 shows +3856

 

Dont think even if it doubles the gross, 2m is locked. But even if it does, it would barely do that much. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. 

IF MTC1 Friday - 26100/777161 409052.95 4739 shows +6848

 

Friday pace is promising.