The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[crazymoviekid]

15 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Back to Black:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 6 Tickets 

Theater 2: 10 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $.46M

Whitney Houston: $.39M

Downton Abbey 2: $.32M

 

We're back up to $.3M-$.5M.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 13 Tickets 

Theater 2: 14 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $1.15M

Whitney Houston: $1.35M

Downton Abbey 2: $1.14M

 

Pretty damn consistent. Still around $1.15M-$1.4M

 

Estimated OW: $4.5M-$5.5M

Back to Black:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets 

Theater 2: 21 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $.49M

Whitney Houston: $.61M

Downton Abbey 2: $.49M

 

Strong finish. $.5M

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 13 Tickets 

Theater 2: 12 Tickets

 

MBFGW3: $.62M

Whitney Houston: $.98M

Downton Abbey 2: $.73M

 

Terrible terrible day. Feel like it'll come back tomorrow. Will go $.75M-$1M

 

Weekend Estimate: $3.5M-$5M

Edited May 17 by crazymoviekid

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

15 minutes ago, Relevation said:

66 day presale window? That's pretty wack 

 

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

It will be a fun few days but then quite a long effectively meaningless window

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

18 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

It will be a fun few days but then quite a long effectively meaningless window

What I’m expecting too. A fan rush, static/stable June, and Probably will start seeing active sales again between July 5-12 when the marketing campaign goes into full swing.

[Rorschach]

On 5/16/2024 at 12:01 AM, Rorschach said:

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

7 2D showings: 29/716 (4.1% sold) 

 

Comp:

Tarot: $1.09 mil

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Thursday Afternoon Outlook - T-minus 0

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

7 2D showings: 62/716 (8.7% sold) [+33]

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $1.17 mil

 

Numbers were taken around 6 pm CST, the start of the first showtime.

Edited May 17 by Rorschach

[Rorschach]

On 5/16/2024 at 12:01 AM, Rorschach said:

IF - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

5 XD showings: 51/1,175

11 2D showings: 66/1,060

Total: 117/2,235 (5.2% sold)

 

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

10 2D showings: 51/952 (5.4% sold)

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $4.68 mil

IF - Thursday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

5 XD showings: 83/1,175

11 2D showings: 106/1,060

Total: 189/2,235 (8.5% sold) [+72]

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 - Thursday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

10 2D showings: 80/952 (8.4% sold) [+29]

 

Comp: 

Tarot: $6.12 mil

 

^ Sincerely doubt it will finish this high, but still a pretty good final day of sales. Compared to this, Tarot barely moved the needle on its Friday ticket sales on its opening Thursday, so in the end, probably not a great comp. Should do very solid walk-up business tomorrow.

Edited May 17 by Rorschach

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

66 day presale window? That's pretty wack 

 

[HummingLemon496]

This might sound so odd given the performance of these two films, but Ant-Man 3 level sales is good news, whereas Guardians 3 level sales is. . .bad news

Edited May 17 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

48 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

What I’m expecting too. A fan rush, static/stable June, and Probably will start seeing active sales again between July 5-12 when the marketing campaign goes into full swing.

And I am sure everybody will be rational and calm and not overreact if there is a long period where the sales don't look that great.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Legion Again said:

It will be a fun few days but then quite a long effectively meaningless window

 

If it was only "meaningless", that'd be one thing.

 

However....

 

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Have a bunch of numbers from today, including Bad Boys (pretty good start for it honestly), but only able to post them tomorrow. Today was the first time in a long while that tracking felt very frustrating. Damn these Fandango issues and overall slowness  

 

This is the major problem and having multiple massive films to track at the same time is going to be: unfun.  Especially since I expect well over 250 showtimes initially for DP3.

 

Been using IO2 to experiment with setting up a non-Fandango workflow for everything except Regal (as their corp site, to use some technical jargon, is fucking horrific) and I might be able to streamline a few things here and there.  But shifting from corp site to corp site to corp site is still disruptive, especially in the case of Cinemark where not only do I have to look out for combined DBOX/regular showings, but I also have to keep an eye on handicap/wheelchair seats as that is flagged separately in their code.

 

And, really, "disruptive" is the best word to use here as I like to get into a flow when I'm checking and constantly popping the clutch as I shift mental methods (and physical keyword searches) is, well, as I said: Unfun.

 

(and, no, Atom is out of the question considering they only cover half of my market)

[HummingLemon496]

In general the first 24 hours or so are fantastic to tell how a Marvel movie would open. In 24 hours we knew that NWH was clearing $200M, that DS2 was on fire (first 24 hours or so pointed to $190-210M which it landed right around even with weak reception), that Thor 4 and BP2 were strong but not crazy strong, that Ant-Man would clear $100M (QM would've opened to $140M+ with positive reception), that Guardians 3 would have a weak opening, and that The Marvels was bombing. And also not Marvel but 24 hours or so was enough to know that Shazam 2/Flash/Blue Beetle/AQM 2 would all bomb

 

24 hours is quite a lot of information to know about how a CBM would open! 

 

And also these Deadpool tickets going on sale remind me of that 'NWH over 700M DOM' club made in like August 2021 which was completely correct somehow 🤣

Edited May 17 by HummingLemon496

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

And I am sure everybody will be rational and calm and not overreact if there is a long period where the sales don't look that great.

 

Actually... they probably will, given how folks reacted during various SW runs (and even recently JW3).  This isn't exactly the first long term rodeo this thread has seen and folks have figured out PDQ that the marathon stretch will be really marathon-y.

[AniNate]

Any rumblings on Twisters sale date? I assume they had plans soon given how they're promoting the soundtrack 

[Porthos]

On 5/16/2024 at 12:09 AM, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23820	24051	231	0.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

Day 2  Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	106.94		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		3951	5.85%		6.68m
Minion 2	190.91		53	121		0/165	25079/25200	0.48%		6591	3.50%		20.52m
TLM	42.46		90	544		0/154	21462/22006	2.47%		6561	3.52%		4.37m
Wonka	316.44		16	73		0/109	18862/18935	0.39%		1975	11.70%		11.08m
Aqua 2	132.76		28	174		0/78	13783/13957	1.25%		2629	8.79%		5.97m
GBFE	93.15		38	248		0/114	18650/18898	1.31%		2197	10.51%		4.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       66/10075  [0.66% sold]
Matinee:      27/2674  [1.01% | 11.69% of all tickets sold]
3D:                8/3852  [0.21% | 3.46% of all tickets sold]
PLF:            92/9686  [0.95% | 39.83% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not much to say.  Already 'bout to hit in the loooooooong stretch of low sales.  Likely to shift to T-x comps (such as they are) tomorrow;  no later than Sat night.

 

Did decided to other comps after seeing them in a couple of blocks.  Also had the wrong comp for Minion's 2 last night (which I'll correct anon), but since it's clearly an outlier (and still is), eh. 

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23781	24051	270	1.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

Day 3  Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	108.00		34	250		0/73	11015/11265	2.22%		3951	6.83%		6.75m
Minion 2	169.81		38	159		0/165	25041/25200	0.63%		6591	4.10%		18.25m
TLM	44.12		68	612		0/154	21382/21994	2.78%		6561	4.12%		4.54m
Wonka	272.73		26	99		0/109	18836/18935	0.52%		1975	13.67%		9.55m
Aqua 2	146.74		10	184		0/78	13770/13954	1.32%		2629	10.27%		6.60m
GBFE	91.53		47	295		0/114	18603/18898	1.56%		2197	12.29%		4.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        68/10075  [0.67% sold]
Matinee:      29/2674  [1.08% | 10.74% of all tickets sold]
3D:              10/3852  [0.26% | 3.70% of all tickets sold]
PLF:           114/9686  [1.18% | 42.22% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Fairly strong day today, actually.  Strong enough that I kept the D-x comps for one more night.  Gunna shift over to T-x tomorrow though, come hell or high water.  Was concentrated at a couple of theaters (including a small group sale at one showing), but still, sales are sales.

 

Still debating what comps to bring in starting at T-27, as I doubt I'll have many good ones to choose from.  Then again, why should tomorrow be much different from the last couple of days, when it comes to... unrepresentative comps? 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Any rumblings on Twisters sale date? I assume they had plans soon given how they're promoting the soundtrack 

June 6

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/15/2024 at 10:14 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-30 Days

 

Previews - 134/52278 (203 showings)

 

Comps

4.2x Kung Fu Panda 4 first day - $16M

11.2x Elemental first day - $27M

 

1.25x Haunted Mansion - $3.9M

1x Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire first day - $4.5M

2.23x Wonka first day - $7.8M

 

 

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-28 Days

 

Previews - 265/52275 (203 showings)

 

Comps

4.73x Kung Fu Panda 4 first day - $18M

 

2.12x Haunted Mansion - $6.6M

2.5x Wonka first day - $8.75M

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, T-8 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 74

New Sales: 11

Growth since T-12: 64%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 6/3

Early Evening: 45/7

Late Evening: 23/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 13/4

IMAX: 51/6

VIP: 7/5

4DX: 3/2

 

Comps

0.130x Dune 2 for $1.3M

1.057x KOTPOTA for $5.3M

0.383x HG:BoSS for $2.2M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

Comps are showing as steady since the last update, but it actually dipped quite a bit this week before rebounding today.

 

Of the comps, I would hold the Apes movie as the most important. Advance ticket buying has been so off in this market recently for some reason. Holding pace with the most recent success is a good sign I'd say.

 

 

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, T-8 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 99

New Sales: 25

Growth: 34%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 6/3

Early Evening: 62/7

Late Evening: 31/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 17/4

IMAX: 68/6

VIP: 11/5

4DX: 3/2

 

Comps

0.163x Dune 2 for $1.6M

1.320x KOTPOTA for $6.6M

0.471x HG:BoSS for $2.7M

 

Average: $3.6M

 

It's starting to heat up.

 

[vafrow]

Bad Boys Ride or Die, D1 / T-21 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 5/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 2/6

VIP: 2/4

 

D1 Comps

1.250x KOTPOTA for $6.3M

0.106x HG:BoSS for $0.6M

 

Comps are not the greatest. One, surprisingly hard to find a comparable film with similar srart on sales. POTA started at T-31. HG:BoSS started at around T-15.

 

Plus, I think ticket buying patterns have changed pretty drastically in my market over the last few months. There's very little up front sales compared to late 2023. Dune was the exception, and I'm eager to see what Deadpool and Wolverine does.

[Liiviig 1998]

5 hours ago, emoviefan said:

And I am sure everybody will be rational and calm and not overreact if there is a long period where the sales don't look that great.

Sure window is long. But this is a CBM .will be able to gauge if  its potential 150-200M+. opener from the first week of sales. Even with Yeah  review  and typical good MCU final week bumps to consider

 

It's not like IO2 where the jury is still out till final week. Which could either be an 80mish  or 120ish + opener.

 

 

Edited May 17 by Liiviig 1998

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/14/2024 at 10:55 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Furiosa	T-9	Jax	6	53	13	89	8,801	1.01%
		Phx	6	27	7	79	5,173	1.53%
		Ral	8	50	2	86	6,718	1.28%
	Total		20	130	22	254	20,692	1.23%
Garfield	T-9	Jax	5	30	5	19	3,091	0.61%
		Phx	6	35	5	31	6,024	0.51%
		Ral	7	36	4	37	4,949	0.75%
	Total		18	101	14	87	14,064	0.62%
Garfield (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	2	12	70	173	40.46%
		Phx	1	1	0	43	49	87.76%
		Ral	1	1	1	32	73	43.84%
	Total		4	4	13	145	295	49.15%

 

Garfield (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .37x (2.65m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .619x (2.15m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .362x (2.03m)

 - Elemental - missed

 - Kung Fu Panda 2 - .85x (3.23m)

 - IF - 1.589x

 

Furiosa T-9 adjusted comps

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .833x (3.92m)

 - Suicide Squad - .804x (3.49m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.728x (4.08m)

 - John Wick 4 - .243x (2.16m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.649x (6.27m)

 - F9 - .294x (2.21m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .37x (2.43m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Furiosa	T-6	Jax	6	53	21	132	8,801	1.50%
		Phx	7	31	21	109	5,404	2.02%
		Ral	8	48	15	116	6,572	1.77%
	Total		21	132	57	357	20,777	1.72%
Garfield	T-6	Jax	5	31	4	23	3,285	0.70%
		Phx	7	40	2	28	6,350	0.44%
		Ral	7	36	3	40	4,949	0.81%
	Total		19	107	9	91	14,584	0.62%
Garfield (EA)	T-2	Jax	2	2	9	97	173	56.07%
		Phx	2	2	6	51	110	46.36%
		Ral	1	1	4	41	73	56.16%
	Total		5	5	19	189	356	53.09%

 

Garfield (EA) T-2 adjusted comps

 -Sing (EA) - .25x

 - Ghostbusters (EA) - 5.4x (2m)

 - Sonic 2 (EA) - .62x (806k)

 - Lightyear (EA) - 1.83x (924k)

 - Haunted Mansion (EA) - .719x (121k)

 

Garfield (Thu) T-6 adjusted comps

 - Sonic 2 - .151x (860k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .273x (666k)

 - TMNT - .259x (1.03m)

 - Elemental - .417x (1m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .291x (1.1m)

 - IF - .487 (1m?)

 

Furiosa T-6 adjusted comps

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .828x (3.9m)

 - Suicide Squad - .84x (3.65m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 2.19x (4.56m)

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.417x (5.38m)

 - F9 - .343x (2.58m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - missed

 - Kingdom of Apes - .597x (4.02m)

 - Creed III (Total) - .715x (3.9m)