The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

I think 80-85K after 1 day already better than Guardians 3 but he has a terrible OD. With the fact that Marvel Films finished around 17M with around 300K at MTC1 , i think already near 3,5M collected in 4 hours which is really good for a movie which come in 2 Months

Yes. I think at this point we need to comp with 2022 MCU movies if OD presales are on par. Let us see how things go. Until we are within T-x cycle for this movie, we cannot comp after 1st 2-3 days. 

[Tinalera]

Furiosa 

Thurs May 23 and Fri May 24 

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	20	473	5217	5690	0.0831
	Fri	4	29	523	6573	7096	0.0737
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montreal	Thurs	3	14	320	3806	4126	0.0775
	Fri	3	13	310	3194	3504	0.0884

[keysersoze123]

One interesting thing is fan event is just MTC1. I dont see anything for any other MTC so far or even smaller chains. 

[HummingLemon496]

I am so fucking sorry about my doom and glooming for DPW

 

I thought Guardians 3 opening poorly would mean DP3 would open poorly, but it turns out that's not the case. My theory about how DS2/AM3/Thor 4 would gank this was completely wrong. And I am so fucking glad

 

Biggest opening weekend since Wakanda Forever let's fucking go

[Cmasterclay]

The interesting thing about that Fandango poll is that the summer most anticipated one didn't have either Twisters or Furiosa in the top ten at all, now they're above Bad Boys and Quiet Place which were very high on that list. These Fandango don't tend to be very predictive whatsoever BUT they do occasionally show some things to make you say "huh", specifically when an unexpected film is really high or something expected to be high isn't even in top ten. Just another data point to throw on the pile.

Edited May 20 by Cmasterclay

[Porthos]

Just escaped Fandango Jail. 

(ALSO:  DBOX IS ***STILL THE GOT DRAT BANE OF MY EXISTENCE         ***)

 

Ahem.

 

Ran into issues about half way into setting up my sheets and then eventually had to completely switch computers it got so bad.

 

Since the setup took about 60-75 min longer than it usually does, take the following with a slight grain of salt

 

Deadpool & Wolverine 1:45pm:   2105/30422 [6.92% sold] 202 showtimes

 

NWH 2am:                                        6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                                      10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman 12:45 pm:                             1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:                                   5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

L&T 12:15pm:                                     2519/31603 [7.97% sold]

BP2 2:15pm:                                       2197/33919 [6.48% sold]

GOTG3 12:40pm:                               1317/29568 [4.45% sold]

 

Two theaters have not yet checked in.  From a quick-ish glance, seems to be broadly in line with other markets that have reported in, while noting this took a bit longer on the back half than normal.

 

I wasn't able to use my altered workflow pattern for the set up, so hopefully this isn't an omen for tonight.  Fingers crossed, at least.

[AniNate]

Fandango polls are often biased towards movies that released a new trailer soon before the poll was taken

 

 

 

Edited May 20 by AniNate

[HummingLemon496]

According to u/Sliver__Legion this is looking like $150-180M opening weekend. Crazy, so glad about that. If this movie delivers on the quality like GOTG 3, I seriously wonder if we could get a a 5 in front of the final DOM. Could be first MCU movie to land in between that $164M gap between AOU and A1

 

 

Edited May 20 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

$100M OW discussion to bed

It won't just be put to bed, it's gonna be killed and then the head of the corpse is gonna be blown off with a shotgun

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-18: 60.56% Awareness, 59.12% Interest

The Watchers T-18: 31.07% Awareness, 44.15% Interest

It Ends with Us T-81: 15.47% Awareness, 38.28% Interest

Blink Twice T-95: 10.69% Awareness, 35.19% Interest

Never Let Go T-130: 18.2% Awareness, 42.48% Interest

Wicked T-191: 37.01% Awareness, 45.09% Interest

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-4: 43.46% Awareness, 43.51% Interest

Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-4: 56.39% Awareness, 49.62% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 70M

 

Sight T-4: 14.96% Awareness, 33.53% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M 

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 T-39: 19.73% Awareness, 36.57% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 33% chance of 10M 

Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M

[Grand Cine]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just escaped Fandango Jail. 

(ALSO:  DBOX IS ***STILL THE GOT DRAT BANE OF MY EXISTENCE         ***)

 

Ahem.

 

Ran into issues about half way into setting up my sheets and then eventually had to completely switch computers it got so bad.

 

Since the setup took about 60-75 min longer than it usually does, take the following with a slight grain of salt

 

Deadpool & Wolverine 1:45pm:   2105/30422 [6.92% sold] 202 showtimes

 

NWH 2am:                                        6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                                      10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman 12:45 pm:                             1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:                                   5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

L&T 12:15pm:                                     2519/31603 [7.97% sold]

BP2 2:15pm:                                       2197/33919 [6.48% sold]

GOTG3 12:40pm:                               1317/29568 [4.45% sold]

 

Two theaters have not yet checked in.  From a quick-ish glance, seems to be broadly in line with other markets that have reported in, while noting this took a bit longer on the back half than normal.

 

I wasn't able to use my altered workflow pattern for the set up, so hopefully this isn't an omen for tonight.  Fingers crossed, at least.

 

43 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Yes. I think at this point we need to comp with 2022 MCU movies if OD presales are on par. Let us see how things go. Until we are within T-x cycle for this movie, we cannot comp after 1st 2-3 days. 

I confirmed with @Porthos numbers and @keysersoze123 confirmation that 2022 MCU Movies are the good comp ( which is good after a meh 2023 for MCU in tracking). I think the best comp for this year is BP2 because he has the longest run of all movies and had a good finish , he seems to me. Thor 4 is also a good comp but he seems also he don't have good finish .

 

Clearly and even more in 2024 , WOM will be the key for OW and the life of the movie in general

[thajdikt]

On 5/19/2024 at 11:06 PM, thajdikt said:

I would be cautious expecting high sales tomorrow for D&W. I Would love to be wrong of course.

Can confirm that I’m loving. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

I was wondering if The Lion King (2019) would be a good comp for this? Obviously 2022 MCU is the better comp. But out of curiosity comparing these would be interesting. The Lion King still holds the record for biggest July opening ever, and presales for Deadpool and Wolverine are off to a hot start. 
 

Does anyone have the first day presale numbers for the 2019 remake? Or was that too long ago?

[Eric Prime]

Re: Fandango polls

 

Yes, they are plagued with recency bias and their exact rankings don't typically correlate with reality. And yeah, for specific stuff like horror or action or animation or whatever, I don't pay that any mind (though in the case of IMAX movies, yeah Twisters or Alien won't make as much as Despicable Me 4 or Inside Out 2, but not many are going to seek out IMAX specifically for those, so...)

 

But generally speaking, their top 10s have served as a good rule of thumb and the majority of their films do reach their rankings. If you look at the summer countdowns specifically...

 

Spoiler

Fandango Summer Top 15 2023

1. Across the Spider-Verse

2. M:I Dead Reckoning Part 1

3. The Flash

4. Transformers Rise of the Beasts

5. The Little Mermaid

6. Fast X

7. Barbie

8. Oppenheimer

9. Haunted Mansion

10. TMNT Mutant Mayhem

11. Indiana Jones 5

12. Insidious 5

13. The Meg 2

14. Asteroid City

15. Gran Turismo

 

Actual Summer Top 15 2023

 

1. Barbie

2. Across the Spider-Verse

3. The Little Mermaid

4. Oppenheimer

5. Sound of Freedom

6. Indiana Jones 5

7. M:I Dead Reckoning Part 1

8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

9. Elemental

10. Fast X

11. The Flash

12. TMNT Mutant Mayhem

13. Insidious 5

14. Meg 2

15. Haunted Mansion

 

13/15 match (using the top 10, 7/10, was done after Guardians 3 released)

 

Fandango Summer Top 10 2022

1. Doctor Strange 2

2. Thor: Love and Thunder

3. Jurassic World: Dominion

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. Minions: The Rise of Gru

6. Lightyear

7. Elvis

8. Nope

9. Bullet Train

10. Downton Abbey: A New Era

 

Actual Summer Top 10 2022

 

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Doctor Strange 2

3. Jurassic World: Dominion

4. Minions: The Rise of Gru

5. Thor: Love and Thunder

6. Elvis

7. Nope

8. Lightyear

9. Bullet Train

10. DC League of Super-Pets

9/10 match

 

2019 Fandango Summer Top 10

1. Spider-Man: Far From Home

2. Rocketman

3. Godzilla: King of the Monsters

4. Dark Phoenix

5. The Lion King

6. Toy Story 4

7. Men in Black: International

8. Hobbs and Shaw

9. Aladdin

10. The Secret Life of Pets 2

 

2019 Actual Summer Top 10

 

1. The Lion King

2. Toy Story 4

3. Spider-Man: Far From Home

4. Aladdin

5. Hobbs and Shaw

6. Secret Life of Pets 2

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

8. Godzilla: King of the Monsters

9. Rocketman

10. Good Boys

8/10 match (done after Endgame/Detective Pikachu released)

 

Fandango Summer 2018

1. Avengers: Infinity War

2. Deadpool 2

3. Solo: A Star Wars Story

4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

5. Incredibles 2

6. Ocean’s 8

7. Mamma Mia! 2

8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

9. Sicario 2

10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

 

Actual Summer 2018

1. Avengers: Infinity War

2. Incredibles 2

3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

4. Deadpool 2

5. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

6. Ant-Man and the Wasp

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story

8. Crazy Rich Asians

9. Hotel Transylvania 3

10. The Meg

 

7/10 match

 

Like yeah, the metrics have it that for 70% of the time, at least for the summer, these Fandango polls showcase a good barometer on what's connecting, and you can easily use context clues to realize that Asteroid City or Downton Abbey 2 or Sicario 2 will probably get beaten out by a July/August release that doesn't have much advertising or a kids animated movie that won't be on most Fandango users' radar. I think there's value in them IMO

[AniNate]

If you are completely unfamiliar with the schedule and just want like a quick cheat sheet of what the big 18-24 targeted blockbusters this summer are expected to be, I guess Fandango is useful for that. Any fool can predict the top ten with reasonable accuracy with the vaguest idea of what the movies are, it's the actual total sales that are where the challenge is.

[Squire]

23 minutes ago, Eric the IF said:

Quorum Updates

Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-18: 60.56% Awareness, 59.12% Interest

The Watchers T-18: 31.07% Awareness, 44.15% Interest

It Ends with Us T-81: 15.47% Awareness, 38.28% Interest

Blink Twice T-95: 10.69% Awareness, 35.19% Interest

Never Let Go T-130: 18.2% Awareness, 42.48% Interest

Wicked T-191: 37.01% Awareness, 45.09% Interest

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-4: 43.46% Awareness, 43.51% Interest

Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-4: 56.39% Awareness, 49.62% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 70M

 

Sight T-4: 14.96% Awareness, 33.53% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M 

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 T-39: 19.73% Awareness, 36.57% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 33% chance of 10M 

Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M

Based on pre-sales, Quorum is not tracking Furiosa well or they are picking up a lack of GA enthusiasm that will translate to poor walk ups this weekend and a disappointing number. 
 

I’m thinking the former since they have been pretty off this year. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	3022	94881	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

232

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.391x) of Dune 2 $3.64M

(1.508x) of Civil War $4.37M
(1.004x) of Planet Apes $5.02M

(0.634x) of Godzill and Kong $6.02M

Comps average: $4.76M

 

Does look like it's heading to maybe $5M

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
505	3239	97067	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

217

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.457x) of Civil War $4.23M
(0.942x) of Planet Apes $4.71M

(0.578x) of Godzill and Kong $5.49M

Comps average: $4.81M

 

Not impressed with pace to be honest 

[HummingLemon496]

5 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

I'm happy it's doing well because I've talked a lot about how much I think it'll make a billion and it's way to late for me to take it all back 

You deserve one massive stand up ceremony if you are correct

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
456	963	84459	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

74

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.554x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $2.11M

Comps average: $2.11M

 

Pace is actually terrible 

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
456	1073	84630	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

110

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.617x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $2.35M

Comps average: $2.35M

 

Well, there's at least some sign of life

[YM!]

I’ll update later but DP&W on its first day has sold over 10x the amount of tickets as Furiosa T-6 here in the SE Wisconsin roundup. For those who feel like a throwback, it’s at 70% of Shang-Chi’s and Venom: Let There Be Carnage’s T-2 at North Shore, 47% of Homecoming’s T-2 at North Shore, and 41.25% of Thor: Rangarök’s T-2 at North Shore - all of which just using DP&W’s T-66 at North Shore!