The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Free Guy mainly. It was Levy's first movie in 7 years, and it did well while released during the 2nd year of the pandemic while nearly everything was bombing. It also stared Ryan Reynolds, and I'm sure Ryan liked Levy enough to get him for DP3.

 

Not bad for the guy mainly known for directing those Night at the Museum films.

 

 

I actually think reliable veteran studio director is a better fit for the MCU these days than indie auteur going straight to their first big budget production. That's paid dividends in the past, but, I think the MCU is in a different place right now.

 

This project in particular likely benefitted from veteran experience, trying to get this project done around the strikes last year. 

 

I don't think there's much point trying to forecast the quality of this film. There's lots of different voices involved and lots of different variables.

[YM!]

21 hours ago, YM! said:

5/21/24 - Southeastern Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking Sample (North Shore, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield Square and Majestic Cinemas)

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (T-2) - 12.5 screens (3 each for North Shore, Menomonee and Brookfield, 4.5 for Majestic split with Garfield) with 34 showings (18 PLF/2D)

- 146 tickets sold (122 PLF/24 2D)

 

Solid growth shown within the past two days although I do think Deadpool tickets slowed its sails. Currently at 53.7% (or 21.7% if we use just NS+MF) of Napoleon’s T-30 minutes before previews at North Shore and Menomonee Falls. Not much has changed from my 4-5m previews prediction.

 

The Garfield Movie (T-2) - 8 screens (2 per theater with Brookfield at 1.5 and Majestic at 2.5 screens) with 27 showings (21 2D/6 3D)

- 85 tickets sold (35 without EA) (30 2D/5 3D)

 

Finally, the fat cat gets off his ass and moves tickets. Still not that strong without EA but is at 75% of IF (T-6.5 hours until previews) and 34.4% of Wish’s North Shore+Menominee Total (T-30 minutes until previews) when you factor EA (26.3% of Wish, if we use the same theaters and include EA). Thinking about 1.5-2.25m Thursday previews including EA but am losing confidence in an OW above 30m.

 

 

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga	5/23/24	T-2	12.5		39	20	17	70	146	24	122
The Garfield Movie	5/23/24	T-3	8		2	6	5	9	22
The Garfield Movie	5/23/24	T-2	8		7	8	8	12	35	30		5

5/22/24 - Southeastern Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking Sample (North Shore, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield Square and Majestic Cinemas)

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (T-22 hours) - 12.5 screens (3 each for North Shore, Menomonee and Brookfield, 4.5 for Majestic split with Garfield) with 34 showings (18 PLF/2D)

- 186 tickets sold (144 PLF/42 2D)

 

Solid growth shown within the past two days although I do think Deadpool tickets slowed its sails. Currently at 68.4% (or 30% if we use just NS+MF) of Napoleon’s T-30 minutes before previews at North Shore and Menomonee Falls. Feeling a bit less optimistic considering the muted jumps and this is likely going to be last post on it due to work but thinking around 3.5-4.5m previews prediction.

 

The Garfield Movie (T-21 hours) 8 screens (2 per theater with Brookfield at 1.5 and Majestic at 2.5 screens) with 27 showings (21 2D/6 3D)

- 86 tickets sold (36 without EA) (31 2D/5 3D)

 

Amazing, Garfield sprinted from 35 tickets to a whopping 36 tickets. Still not that strong without EA but is at 75% of IF (T-6.5 hours until previews) and 34.4% of Wish’s North Shore+Menominee Total (T-30 minutes until previews) when you factor EA (26.3% of Wish, if we use the same theaters and include EA). Thinking about 1.5-2M Thursday previews including EA but am thinking 25m might be hit or miss with a good chance at O/U 20m. 
 

The Garfield Movie	5/23/24	T-21 hours	8		7	9	8	12	36	31		6
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga	5/23/24	T-22 hours	12.5		51	31	14	90	186	42	144

Edited May 22 by YM!

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, D2, T-65, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1272

New Sales: 212

Growth: 20%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 31.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 96/13

Early Evening: 723/14

Late Evening: 453/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1127/21)

Regular: 4/1

Dolby: 268/5

IMAX: 639/4

VIP: 210/8

4DX: 6/3

 

3D (145/20)

Regular: 14/2

Dolby: 43/4

IMAX: 27/2

VIP: 61/6

 

Comps 

8.772x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $87.7M

2.730x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $32.8M

4.659x Day 7 of The Marvels for $30.8M

3.676x Day 2 of FNAF for $37.9M

0.441x Estimated Day 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $16.6M

 

Average: $41.1M

 

20% growth on day 2 when it had a really strong first day is impressive. This is now ahead of T-1 for Dune Previews to officially be the highest selling film I've tracked since I switched to the 5 theatre radius.

 

I've got a very busy week, and this is a painful manual track, but I want to see at least one more day from this before relegating to the backburner for a while. 

 

I'll need to start dropping comps that don't make that much sense. FNAF was good as a gauge, but it hard a very short window and stops being relevant. Eras Tour is probably good for a little bit, but I lost that one about two weeks out when the app changed.

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, D3, T-64, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1371

New Sales: 99

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 33.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 106/13

Early Evening: 772/14

Late Evening: 493/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1207/21)

Regular: 6/1

Dolby: 288/5

IMAX: 665/4

VIP: 242/8

4DX: 6/3

 

3D (164/20)

Regular: 19/2

Dolby: 55/4

IMAX: 27/2

VIP: 63/6

 

Comps 

8.309x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $83.1M

2.775x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $33.3M

5.022x Day 7 of The Marvels for $33.1M

0.469x Estimated Day 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $17.7M

 

Average: $41.8M

 

8% growth at this stage is very positive. I expect another drop tomorrow, but I'm probably not going to touch this until the weekend at this stage.

 

I'm comping high, and without a proper MCU comparison (Marvels doesn't count), it's hard to gauge, but I feel this is just doing really well here.

[AnthonyJPHer]

Let me hop onto the Garfield Movie doom train

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE 

It’s… not looking good for this movie. I’m very much considering a sub 30m opening weekend.

 

From all the theaters I have tracked, this movie has sold a whopping… 246 tickets for Thursday previews. Compare that to the well over 750 tickets for Inside Out 2, and it’s pitiful. 
 

I hope the weekend proves me wrong and walkups are strong, but it’s not looking good for our feline friend.

Edited May 22 by AnthonyJPHer

[Joyous Legion]

3 hours ago, Flip said:

Should widen IM range to at least 5.75 and move the top end of previews down, I can’t see 40m being plausible 

Below 30 isn’t particularly plausible either, that’s why I said to focus on medium green and it’s just wide for being so far away.  
 

That said I think 40 is easier to achieve than a high IM like 5.75, pretty comfortable on the range there too. ~+5% Sat and -20 Sun is a true IM ~2.9. Previews this early in summer are almost a th opening, so Fri soemthing like +35-55% from Th is IM ~4.9-5.5. If we get some strong Fri sales when we’re close maybe I’ll drag it up to 5.6 or something but it will be really really tough to beat that. 

1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Are you expecting an IM close to Thor 4?

Yeah. Better reception (in avg case, just by regression to the mean) but bigger previews/more fanrush element, ~cancelling

Edited May 22 by Legion Again

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Legion Again said:

Yeah. Worse reception but bigger previews/more fanrush element, ~cancelling

You're expecting the third Deadpool movie to be worse than the fourth Thor movie? Seriously?

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, HummingLemon496 said:

You're expecting the third Deadpool movie to be worse than the fourth Thor movie? Seriously?

Edited, started to write the sentence as Thor reception being worse and then changed the framing in the middle haha

[HummingLemon496]

5 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Edited, started to write the sentence as Thor reception being worse and then changed the framing in the middle haha

Yeah, I tbh think Thor 4's reception was more like B than a B+

Edited May 22 by HummingLemon496

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

18 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

 

Yeah. Better reception (in avg case, just by regression to the mean) but bigger previews/more fanrush element, ~cancelling

Yeah that makes sense, fan rush and all.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
560	3712	109578	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

473

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.435x) of Civil War $4.16M
(0.889x) of Planet Apes $4.45M

(0.546x) of Godzill and Kong $5.18M

Comps average: $4.60M

 

Yeah, idk this had a great pace up until Deadpool x Wolverine just sucked the air out of the room. Don't really know if $5M previews is happening anymore. 

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
560	3854	109578	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

142

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.250x) of Civil War $3.62M
(0.793x) of Planet Apes $3.97M

(0.475x) of Godzill and Kong $4.51M

Comps average: $4.03M

 

Just yikes. Not sure if this gets to $4M for Thursday 

Edited May 23 by TheFlatLannister

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
560	3854	109578	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

142

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.250x) of Civil War $3.62M
(0.793x) of Planet Apes $3.97M

(0.475x) of Godzill and Kong $4.51M

Comps average: $4.03M

 

Just yikes. Not sure if this gets to $4M for Thursday 

One thing that keeps me a little hopeful for this is that Dune had a trash last week of pre sales and still pulled through. Even then, there’s gonna be audience differences and I don’t expect as good walk ups.

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
560	3854	109578	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

142

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.250x) of Civil War $3.62M
(0.793x) of Planet Apes $3.97M

(0.475x) of Godzill and Kong $4.51M

Comps average: $4.03M

 

Just yikes. Not sure if this gets to $4M for Thursday 

Sigh I get all the reasons this might not break out but the way some of these movies seem to be falling off the cliff in the home stretch anymore. The reviews and buzz should be good enough to get close to Fury Road numbers  even if the casuals and GA do not bite. They did not really embrace that either.

[YM!]

Got to say with Furiosa and Garfield looking to underperform, and most of May’s slate: if Bad Boys and IO2 get the right reception - I honestly wouldn’t be surprised at a breakout for either. I mean something has to fill in seats, right?

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

Got to say with Furiosa and Garfield looking to underperform, and most of May’s slate: if Bad Boys and IO2 get the right reception - I honestly wouldn’t be surprised at a breakout for either. I mean something has to fill in seats, right?

If IO 2 and BB ROD do not break  assuming good reviews and buzz for both,  Be afraid be very afraid. It would be even worse than we fear and think around here. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

Got to say with Furiosa and Garfield looking to underperform, and most of May’s slate: if Bad Boys and IO2 get the right reception - I honestly wouldn’t be surprised at a breakout for either. I mean something has to fill in seats, right?

Both films are currently looking good by pre sales so far. At the very least they should have good openings, and will hopefully have the receptions to carry on into the summer.

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, YM! said:

I mean something has to fill in seats, right?

I would say the story of the past few years (and esp 10 months) is that this is wrong

 

That said I do think BB and IO should do decent-great for other reasons

Edited May 23 by Legion Again

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Legion Again said:

I would say the story of the past few years is that this is wrong

 

That said I do think BB and IO should do decent-great for other reasons

Yeah, I do remember nothing of note domestically this past holiday season other than Wonka.

Edited May 23 by YM!

[filmlover]

It's just a question of whether anything can build up excitement until Deadpool & Wolverine (which is looking like a guaranteed monster at this point) arrives in late July. At least we already know that has #1 movie of the summer (maybe even the year too?) on lock.

[AniNate]

It would be a bummer if Furiosa disappointed ngl. Sounds like it delivers on every front people could have reasonably hoped for from it. 

 

I'll be going on vacation Saturday so hopefully I'll be distracted enough to limit my exposure to any hypothetical doom cycle at least.

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Just yikes. Not sure if this gets to $4M for Thursday 

 

All my fault, really.  I started posting Q&D's which suggested that sub-4m might be incoming, and well...

 

Spoiler

FWIW, if I had to bet, I'd bet on it doing over 4m, as I do think Sacto is either underperforming or I'm very likely using the wrong comps.