The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

FWIW, took a look at AQPD1 locally and, two observations.

 

Not too bad on the pre-sales.  Waaaay back in the day of capped theaters when COVID was still raging and theaters just opening (and before I tracked DBOX), AQP2 sold 160 tickets at T-22 and....  AQPD1 sold 166 tickets at T-28.

 

Now I am now tracking DBOX seats, which at a glance sold 19 tickets tonight.  However three theaters locally converted to having DBOX showings, so some local theaters will just have more DBOX sales. Still, basically in line with D1 of AQP2, more or less.

 

Secondly, the tickets sold for the 3pm fan event are practically non-existent right now.  Out of the 166 tickets sold, only 8 tickets of them being at the Fan Events.

 

Not doing a formal track yet, and there are so many problems with an AQP2 comp as to make it nearly worthless (or indeed, utterly worthless).   But... promising start, I'd say.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/27/2024 at 4:21 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-60 Days (7 days on sale)

 

Previews - 7262/83467 (318 showings) $109K

 

Comps

1.67x GoTG3 (T-25 days) - $29.2M

1.18x Black Panther (T-32 days) - $33.7M

0.82x Thor 4 (T-18 days) - $23.8M

 

Will freeze comps at T-17 days, whenever they reach there.

 

Moving along well. Target of 8.2K by T-50 days.

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-56 Days (11 days on sale)

 

Previews - 7731/83899 (318 showings) $115K

 

Comps

1.59x GoTG3 (T-21 days) - $28M

1.14x Black Panther (T-28 days) - $32.5M

0.83x Thor 4 (T-17 days) - $24.2M

 

Thor comp froze at T-17 days. GoTG 3 will be next.

 

Weirdly strong day today, selling 200+ tix. Unless some error that gets corrected later on, will make reaching 8.2K by T-50 easier.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/21/2024 at 1:21 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-24 Days

 

Previews - 440/52272 (203 showings)

 

Comps

5.05x Kung Fu Panda 4 first 7 days - $19M

 

2.57x Haunted Mansion first 7 days - $8M

2.84x Wonka first 7 days - $10M

 

Moving along nicely. 

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Previews - 818/53875 (207 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $20.2M

 

Haunted Mansion - $10.5M

Wonka - $9.5M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $8.6M

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

CM EQUIV       230 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    235 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

The heck was going on here

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

The heck was going on here

T-x days, not nth day of sale.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Legion Again said:

The heck was going on here

 

I haven't been updating one of the fields that regulates that cell "is what the heck is going on here".

 

No sleep in 48 42 hours will do that to a fella.  I'll fix it either now or in the morning depending on how difficult it is to fix/how many days I have to fix.

 

ETA::::

 

*checks*

 

Yeah I just fell out of the habit of updating all my fields on Monday and unfortunately the one field I should still be updating just slipped through the cracks.

 

Too tired to deal with it now, but I'll go back and check/fix the last four days sometime tomorrow.

Edited May 31 by Porthos
Too damn tired to do math correctly

[vafrow]

On 5/30/2024 at 6:19 AM, vafrow said:

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-8 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 50

New Sales: 10

Growth: 25%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 1/4

Early Evening: 40/8

Late Evening: 9/8

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 6/7

IMAX: 13/6

VIP: 31/4

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.714x KOTPOTA for $3.6M

0.259x HG:BoSS for $1.5M

0.794x GB:FE for $3.7M

1.493x Equalizer 3 (estimated) for $5.7M

 

Average: $3.6M

 

A bounceback day that helped undo some of the damage from earlier this week.

 

I've also added Equalizer 3 as a comp. I only have data from a larger subset, so I'm taking an estimation. It's value though will see if Bad Boys can match the pace. Equalizer really had late growth.

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-7 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 58

New Sales: 10

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 1/4

Early Evening: 42/8

Late Evening: 15/8

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 6/7

IMAX: 17/6

VIP: 35/4

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.773x KOTPOTA for $3.9M

0.276x HG:BoSS for $1.6M

0.892x GB:FE for $4.2M

1.559x Equalizer 3 (estimated) for $5.9M

 

Average: $3.9M

 

A good and steady day. 

[vafrow]

A Quiet Place Day One, T-28 and Day One, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 8

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 8/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/5

IMAX: 7/4

4DX: 0/2

 

D1 Comps

2.000x KOTPOTA for $10M

0.421x Furiosa for $1.5M

2.000x KFP4 for 7.8M

 

Average: $6.4M

 

Not a bad start.

 

I don't have great comps with it starting at a month out. I took a page from @Porthos and threw a family comp in there. It had a similar sales window. Not sure if it'll work out, but I'll need something when I switch to T minus comps.

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Inside Out 2 T-15: 57.24% Awareness, 51.97% Interest

It Ends with Us T-71: 16.41% Awareness, 38.23% Interest

Alien: Romulus T-78: 28.69% Awareness, 44.05% Interest

The Crow T-85: 32.33% Awareness, 42.53% Interest

Killer's Game T-106: 14.17% Awareness, 43.33% Interest

Joker: Folie a Deux T-127: 55.37% Awareness, 60.72% Interest

Piece by Piece T-134: 14.62% Awareness, 32.92% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-148: 32.62% Awareness, 53.5% Interest

 

Bad Boys for Life T-8: 65.02% Awareness, 57.79% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M

Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M

 

The Watchers T-8: 28.06% Awareness, 44.67% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M

[thajdikt]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-56 Days (11 days on sale)

 

Previews - 7731/83899 (318 showings) $115K

 

Comps

1.59x GoTG3 (T-21 days) - $28M

1.14x Black Panther (T-28 days) - $32.5M

0.83x Thor 4 (T-17 days) - $24.2M

 

Thor comp froze at T-17 days. GoTG 3 will be next.

 

Weirdly strong day today, selling 200+ tix. Unless some error that gets corrected later on, will make reaching 8.2K by T-50 easier.

The popcorn bucket stuff really blew up at least on Twitter. Almost 100K likes from Ryan and Hugh’s account. Maybe that attributed to that.

[YM!]

29 minutes ago, Eric Lasagna said:

Quorum Updates

Inside Out 2 T-15: 57.24% Awareness, 51.97% Interest

Was looking at Quorum just now and notice that it’s lagging behind KFP4 at about the days before release. Don’t think it’ll open under it but am starting to doubt 100m OW, though it’s still very early.

[YM!]

Marcus is doing $7 matinees for children and seniors all day every day before 4 PM for the summer.

[filmlover]

Twisters showtimes are starting to appear, starts at 2:00 that Thursday following an Early Access show the night before.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

"Sony / Crunchyroll's HAIKYU!! The Dumpster Battle grossed an estimated $800K from Thursday preview shows."

 

 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/30/2024 at 9:01 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-7	Jax	5	56	7	166	9,816	1.69%
		Phx	6	39	6	118	7,802	1.51%
		Ral	8	46	-2	114	6,817	1.67%
	Total		19	141	11	398	24,435	1.63%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-6	Jax	3	3	5	29	855	3.39%
Watchers	T-7	Jax	5	21	4	15	1,458	1.03%
		Phx	6	20	2	21	2,182	0.96%
		Ral	7	21	0	5	2,142	0.23%
	Total		18	62	6	41	5,782	0.71%

 

Bad Boys (Total) T-7 adjusted comps

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .387x (3.41m)

 - F9 - .442x (3.33m)

 - Furiosa - 1.423x (4.98m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - .9x (3.94m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .55x (4.95m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - .795x (5.35m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.93x (7.34m)

 - Creed 3 (Total) - .99x (5.41m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.1m

 

Watchers T-7 adjusted comps

 - Abigail - 1.11x (1.11m)

 - Strangers - .621x (745k)

 - Last Voyage - .82x (713k)

 - Smile (Thu) - .641x (937k)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .347x (925k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-6	Jax	5	56	31	197	9,816	2.01%
		Phx	6	39	45	163	7,802	2.09%
		Ral	8	46	15	129	6,817	1.89%
	Total		19	141	91	489	24,435	2.00%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-5	Jax	3	3	6	35	855	4.09%
Watchers	T-6	Jax	5	21	1	16	1,458	1.10%
		Phx	6	20	1	22	2,182	1.01%
		Ral	7	21	0	5	2,142	0.23%
	Total		18	62	2	43	5,782	0.74%

 

Bad Boys (Total) T-6 adjusted comps*

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .437x (3.85m)

 - F9 - .503x (3.78m)

 - Furiosa - 1.468x (5.14m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.06x (4.65m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .595x (5.37m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - .876x (5.78m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 2.08x (7.9m)

 - Creed 3 (Total) - 1.05x (5.72m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.36m

 

Watchers T-6 adjusted comps*

 - Abigail - 1.075x (1.075m)

 - Strangers - .566x (679k)

 - Last Voyage - .78x (680k)

 - Smile (Thu) - .434x (756k)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .319x (848k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 854k

 

*I noticed an error yesterday on my comp adjustments.  They have been corrected going forward

[Flip]

On 5/29/2024 at 11:08 PM, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-15)

12 showtimes/127 tix sold (+6)

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-8)

 

14 showtimes/126 tix sold (+6)

 

Watchers (T-8)

 

8 showtimes/46 tix sold (+12)

Last nights update: 

 

Inside Out 2 (T-14)

12 showtimes/152 tix sold (+25!)

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-7)

 

14 showtimes/131 tix sold (+5)

 

Watchers (T-7)

 

8 showtimes/49 tix sold (+3)

 

A Quiet Place (D-28)

 

12 showtimes/69 tix sold 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/25/2024 at 6:45 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Inside Out 2	T-19	Jax	6	65	67	67	11,261	0.59%
		Phx	6	64	67	67	12,492	0.54%
		Ral	8	73	102	102	9,043	1.13%
	Total		20	202	236	236	32,796	0.72%

 

T-19 comps

 - Super Mario Bros (OD) - missed

 - Barbie (Total) - .184x (3.45m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.18x (3.66m)

 - Garfield (Total) - 1.919x (3.8m)

 - Minions 2 - 1.439x (14.57m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Inside Out 2	T-13	Jax	6	65	18	123	11,261	1.09%
		Phx	6	64	9	102	12,492	0.82%
		Ral	8	73	14	161	9,043	1.78%
	Total		20	202	41	386	32,796	1.18%

 

T-13 comps

 - Super Mario Bros (OD) - missed

 - Barbie (Total) - .205x (4.81m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.37x (4.46m)

 - Garfield (Total) - 2.52x (5.25m)

 - Minions 2 - 1.35x (14.8m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .821x (6.31m)

 - Shazam 2 - .928x (3.22m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .752x (4.55m)

 

As everyone else has already said - no great comps for this.  I have been hesitant to even provide updates as to not encourage doom posting.  The last week and especially final few days will tell everything we need to know.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Quiet Place 3	T-27	Jax	6	58	54	54	9,832	0.55%
		Phx	6	37	77	77	6,419	1.20%
		Ral	8	44	34	34	6,467	0.53%
	Total		20	139	165	165	22,718	0.73%

 

Day 1 comps

 - Halloween Ends - .994x (5.49m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - .801x (3.52m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - .708x (3.12m)

 - Furiosa - 1.269x (4.44m)

[Shawn Robbins]

BOT's AQP: DAY ONE and HORIZON 4-week tracking is up:

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/4-week-tracking-a-quiet-place-day-one-pre-sales-lead-recent-horror-ip-can-horizon-an-american-saga-chapter-1-bring-out-gen-x-and-baby-boomers/

 

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/4-week-tracking-a-quiet-place-day

[Shawn Robbins]

On 5/24/2024 at 3:48 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

Checked all three Trades, and aside from Variety saying it was a total of 1.925m (that extra .025 is very important after all 😉), none of them have said anything aside from the $1.9m total.

 

Perhaps @Shawn Robbins can ask around/already knows?

 

 

$1.925m is what I received as well.