The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Friday Final - 702376/1441721 11093767.14 8451 shows +442658

 

Just wanted to post this to show how crazy were it walkups today. It just blew past all our expectations. It was way crazier than even Minions 2 OD. 

Biggest single day we ever got I think.

 

Mario was 425K on FRI.

[todos]

MiniTC2 was the blueprint from the very beginning. Moana will be fun.

[HummingLemon496]

On 6/13/2024 at 2:37 PM, HummingLemon496 said:

Y not 12.5*11.8 for $147.5M

 

$530M DOM, $1280M WW

[Porthos]

On 6/14/2024 at 1:15 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-42 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28622	33627	5005	14.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

58

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	23.70%		8.53m
L&T		16962	29.51%		8.56m
BP2		16800	29.79%		8.34m
AM3		10475	47.78%		8.36m
GOTG3		10750	46.56%		8.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1102/12927  [8.52% sold]
Matinee:    279/4470  [6.24% | 5.57% of all tickets sold]
3D:            482/6801  [7.09% | 9.63% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2664/11535  [23.09% | 53.23% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        46 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    46 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-41 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28585	33624	5039	14.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	23.86%		8.59m
L&T		16962	29.71%		8.62m
BP2		16800	29.99%		8.40m
AM3		10475	48.11%		8.42m
GOTG3		10750	46.87%		8.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1106/12924  [8.56% sold]
Matinee:    283/4468  [6.33% | 5.62% of all tickets sold]
3D:            484/6800  [7.12% | 9.61% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2672/11535  [23.16% | 53.03% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV       33 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    35 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Porthos]

Been gone most of the day (had a bunch of Things I Needed To Do + Wanting To Decompress A Bit), but wanted to take a quick postmortem.

 

17 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-inside-out-2-1235973432/

 

$13M for IO2

 

On 6/13/2024 at 4:49 PM, Porthos said:

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	197.67		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	197.67%		12.35m
Ltyear [3:50-4:20]	190.91		802	4091		1/196	18650/22741	17.99%		4091	190.91%		9.93m
Minion 2 [3:50-4:20]	118.49		1571	6591		0/218	23799/30390	21.69%		6591	118.49%		12.74m
Element [4:25-4:40]	408.90		929*	1910		—/—	8657/10567	18.08%		1910	408.90%		9.81m
Barbie [3:50-4:30]	64.67		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	64.67%		14.62m
Wonka [3:55-4:20]	395.44		461	1975		0/211	24794/26769	7.38%		1975	395.44%		13.84m
GBFE [3:50-4:15]	355.48		439	2197		0/208	27083/29280	7.50%		2197	355.48%		16.71m
KFP4 [3:55-4:20]	332.91		1087*	2346		0/188	18495/20841	11.26%		2346	332.91%		12.65m

 

 

So did have pretty good comps over all, just was waaaay too influenced by prior (low appealing) Pixar films.  Prob think I would have had trouble pulling the trigger on 13m even without those two comps though, but might have settled in at 12.5m.

 

Still, this is what I get for trying to play games/guess the ATP/PSM ahead of time.  Oh well, live and [don't] learn, that's my motto! 👍

 

All in all, the comps were good, just not the analysis.  Can't complain too much about that.  More importantly, should be a good comp going forward for similiar-ish films.  Which, when all is said and done is the important thing.

 

(will catch up on today's posts, tomorrow — only had time time today to leave a couple of stray reactions here and there and am about to log back out for the night)

Edited June 15 by Porthos

[justnumbers]

11 hours ago, Derpity said:

 

Seems like Quorum is considering $240m is described as a "conservative" 

Their range is 200M-230M. Which is dangerous.

 

But I wouldn't be surprised if comes July 26th and things just go crazy and we get over 200M even if barely. Which is what I'm inclined to think will happen. If it comes under and around 180M-190M, it's still huge and we all can laugh at the Quorum. 

[Youngstar]

5 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

Their range is 200M-230M. Which is dangerous.

 

But I wouldn't be surprised if comes July 26th and things just go crazy and we get over 200M even if barely. Which is what I'm inclined to think will happen. If it comes under and around 180M-190M, it's still huge and we all can laugh at the Quorum. 

As I said previously: They have to comp against PG-13 superhero movies(NWH and  DrS2), which gives that number. But the R rating will limit this, but they have no comps for that so...

 

Here is how they got to that number: https://thequorum.com/can-deadpool-wolverine-open-above-200m-it-certainly-looks-possible/

[Kon]

9 hours ago, Maaatt said:

i feel like both are probably contributing no? Clearly the power of popular IP has been very important given the presales and strong Thursday walkup business (some of which though was probably driven by the strong reviews/social media reactions) but this morning it seemed like consensus was thinking true Friday of around 40m on the high end and 120-130m for the weekend and that 10x preview multiple for pixar fathers day weekend movies seemed like close to a ceiling… but if it does go to 150m then thats better then 11X. So i feel like the numbers continuing to go up through the day has to be at least somewhat attributable to strong word of mouth.

 

I'm not sure the sudden increase in numbers is really due to good WOM. It could just be a big amount of people waited for the last day to buy a ticket.

 

We've already seen movies with really good reviews, but they didn't receive this kind of boost.

 

 

PS: Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Mario also has this kind of increase (although the reviews weren't so good).

Edited June 15 by Kon

[justnumbers]

18 minutes ago, Youngstar said:

As I said previously: They have to comp against PG-13 superhero movies(NWH and  DrS2), which gives that number. But the R rating will limit this, but they have no comps for that so...

 

Here is how they got to that number: https://thequorum.com/can-deadpool-wolverine-open-above-200m-it-certainly-looks-possible/

Yeah I figured. The Quorum is pretty embarrassing when it goes out to give specific numbers a lot of times. 

 

Again...I do agree that they're going wayyy too high. Range until 230M and they say it may be conservative is just ridiculous nonsense. I do agree with this.

[vafrow]

On 6/8/2024 at 8:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-48, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1788

New Sales since T-55: 140

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 43.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 172/13

Early Evening: 942/14

Late Evening: 674/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1532/21)

Regular: 6/1

Dolby: 389/5

IMAX: 776/4

VIP: 350/8

4DX: 11/3

 

3D (256/20)

Regular: 30/2

Dolby: 113/4

IMAX: 36/2

VIP: 77/6

 

Comps 

No suitable comps available 

 

 At it's current stage, I can't figure any comp that's worthwhile.

 

However, it did well of the gate and it's growth during this dead period is decent, doing about a percentage point a day.

 

My big issue is that this is getting to be unwieldy to count manually. Even when I get to the final week, I won't be able to do daily counts. I'll probably try to continue to do weekends, and maybe the odd weekday update if there's a reason to.

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-41, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1866

New Sales since T-48: 78

Growth: 4%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 45.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 190/13

Early Evening: 998/14

Late Evening: 678/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1578/21)

Regular: 7/1

Dolby: 393/5

IMAX: 794/4

VIP: 372/8

4DX: 12/3

 

3D (288/20)

Regular: 34/2

Dolby: 128/4

IMAX: 40/2

VIP: 86/6

 

Comps 

No suitable comps available 

 

 Sales are expectedly slowing down. We're still a few weeks away from when things should pick up.

[vafrow]

On 6/8/2024 at 9:02 AM, vafrow said:

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-20, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales since T-26: 9

Growth: 50%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/1

Early Evening: 11/5

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 6/5

IMAX: 8/4

4DX: 4/2

 

D3 Comps

0.600x KOTPOTA for $3.0M

N/A for Furiosa

1.200x KFP4 for 4.6M

 

Average: $3.8M

 

Nothing really noteworthy here.

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-13, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 22

New Sales since T-20: 4

Growth: 22%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/1

Early Evening: 15/5

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 6/5

IMAX: 10/4

4DX: 4/2

 

Comps

0.500x KOTPOTA for $2.5M

 0.647x Furiosa for $2.3M

0.407x KFP4 for $1.5M

 

Average: $2.0M

 

Not much happening on this one. I'm hoping it sees a late surge.

 

[Eric Prime]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-gladiator-2-debuts-thanks-to-russell-crowe/

 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/13/2024 at 10:32 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Amazing part was it did 4.2K on T-5 finishing under 39K. From that point it did > 5x. Only Minions 2 and Mario had similar strong finishes. Mario did not even have early previews(just midnights). So it was all OD BO.

 

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Friday - 259718/1408619 4186775.56 8038 shows +111870

 

Really strong T-1 sales for Friday. I think it can go for 600K finish tomorrow. That should get it to high 30s True friday. Let us see how the day goes. 

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Saturday - 268565/1509494 4095585.19 8898 shows

 

I let it run overnight. Can it do 750K or even 800K.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Eric S'ennui said:

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-gladiator-2-debuts-thanks-to-russell-crowe/

 

Now we just need them to drop the trailer for Gladiator 2 in the next few weeks. If they do not then combined with the reshoots I will agree that it may be in trouble. 

[jeffthehat]

On 6/14/2024 at 9:42 AM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana Lite

Inside Out 2 Fri T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
6688	37524	212

TC = 10

Comps (Don't take too seriously)

6.62x Furiosa Fri T-0 = $45.6m

3.29x Bad Boys 4 Fri T-0 = $51.4m

3.92x IF Sat T-0 = $54.9m

6.31x IF Sun T-0 = $58.7m

3.78x Kingdom Apes Fri T-0 = $59.3m

---

Just throwing what I have at the wall here. Keep in mind ATP will be lower than most of these. Still, looking like $40m+ true Friday to me. 

 

 

Indiana Lite

Inside Out 2 Sat T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
6508	35955	206

TC = 10

Comps 

0.97x Inside Out 2 Fri T-0 = $48.7m

3.81x IF Sat T-0 = $53.7m

2.94x Bad Boys 4 Sat T-0 = $57.2m

3.03x Kingdom Apes Sat T-0 = $60.5m

 

AVG = $54.97m

 

Guess I should've taken the comps seriously yesterday  Had suspicions it would be ~$50m but chickened out on saying it directly 

 

On 6/12/2024 at 4:39 PM, jeffthehat said:

The average of IF/KFP4 has been holding steady, so wouldn't shock me if this ends up playing like a normal family movie. 

 

On 6/13/2024 at 9:58 AM, jeffthehat said:

Thinking TLM might be an outlier here. If and KFP4 are comping ~$48.5m true Fri at MTC1, similar to Minions 2. Recent action stuff like Fall Guy ($49.5m) and Bad Boys 4 ($43.4m) looks good as well. We'll see

 

Would guess flat-ish today. Weird that showcount is lower than yesterday but don't think there was an error in counting 

Edited June 15 by jeffthehat

[Maaatt]

6 hours ago, Kon said:

 

I'm not sure the sudden increase in numbers is really due to good WOM. It could just be a big amount of people waited for the last day to buy a ticket.

 

We've already seen movies with really good reviews, but they didn't receive this kind of boost.

 

 

PS: Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Mario also has this kind of increase (although the reviews weren't so good).

Id argue word of mouth is different then “reviews”.. Audiences can and often do

have different tastes then many critics, what matters just as much as strong critic reviews, if not more in many cases, once a movie opens is the audiences response and what they are telling their friends and family, what they’re posting to social media. Critics didnt like mario but i think its hard to argue that among the audience it was targeting the movie was a lot more loved (see its continued presence in Netflix’s US top 10 movies 6 months after arriving on the platform). 
 

Even among some of the movies im assuming you’re talking about, i would argue word of mouth probably helped those movies perform stronger throughout there run then woulda been the case had audiences hated a movie. Fall Guy’s Box Office is getting close to $90 million, pushing past a better then 3X opening weekend multiple for instance. IF is another one surging past a 3X multiple.. but again the entire point of my post was that BOTH interest in the IP and strong audience response can be driving the box office, ultimately you need to have interest in seeing a movie for word of mouth to push you to go. Even movies with strong audience reactions might not get the numbers you’d think or hope if there just isn’t the interest to see that movie. I’ve been recommended movies i ultimately do not see because I just don’t have any interest. And in terms of what can guarantee a high level of interest, beloved IP is usually a studios best bet. 

[todos]

According to Deadline, Inside Out 2 is 62% walk ups. Insane.

[Firepower]

100% walk ups will save Horizon.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Friday Final - 702376/1441721 11093767.14 8451 shows +442658

 

Just wanted to post this to show how crazy were it walkups today. It just blew past all our expectations. It was way crazier than even Minions 2 OD. 

 

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Saturday - 268565/1509494 4095585.19 8898 shows

 

I let it run overnight. Can it do 750K or even 800K.

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Saturday - 733955/1539610 11369052.03 9262 shows +465390

 

Another record for walkups. i would think this is good enough for 50m. But its highly likely that more child tickets were sold today and so we need discount more than yesterday. Still huge walkups again and this makes me confident about its legs. 

[Porthos]

On 6/15/2024 at 1:36 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-41 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28585	33624	5039	14.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	23.86%		8.59m
L&T		16962	29.71%		8.62m
BP2		16800	29.99%		8.40m
AM3		10475	48.11%		8.42m
GOTG3		10750	46.87%		8.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1106/12924  [8.56% sold]
Matinee:    283/4468  [6.33% | 5.62% of all tickets sold]
3D:            484/6800  [7.12% | 9.61% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2672/11535  [23.16% | 53.03% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV       33 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    35 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-40 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28526	33625	5099	15.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	24.15%		8.69m
L&T		16962	30.06%		8.72m
BP2		16800	30.35%		8.50m
AM3		10475	48.68%		8.52m
GOTG3		10750	47.43%		8.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1120/12925  [8.67% sold]
Matinee:    289/4469  [6.47% | 5.67% of all tickets sold]
3D:             498/6801  [7.32% | 9.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2683/11535  [23.26% | 52.62% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        53 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    56 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking