The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

On 6/18/2024 at 1:23 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-38 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28457	33625	5168	15.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

35

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	24.47%		8.81m
L&T		16962	30.47%		8.84m
BP2		16800	30.76%		8.61m
AM3		10475	49.34%		8.63m
GOTG3		10750	48.07%		8.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1124/12925  [8.70% sold]
Matinee:    285/4469  [6.38% | 5.51% of all tickets sold]
3D:             505/6801  [7.43% | 9.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2713/11535  [23.52% | 52.50% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        37 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    37 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

I could technically bring back the BP2 comp, as T-38 was its first day of sales.  But gonna wait a few days (say four or five) and wait for the initial wave of sales to be over.  It'll still be a terribad comp, but at least it won't be a ludicrously terribad comp.  Just a ridiculously terribad one.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-37 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28379	33625	5246	15.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

78

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	24.84%		8.94m
L&T		16962	30.93%		8.97m
BP2		16800	31.23%		8.74m
AM3		10475	50.08%		8.76m
GOTG3		10750	48.80%		8.54m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1137/12925  [8.80% sold]
Matinee:    288/4469  [6.44% | 5.49% of all tickets sold]
3D:             534/6801  [7.85% | 10.18% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2748/11535  [23.82% | 52.38% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        69 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    70 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-16 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 72

New Sales: 18

Growth: 29%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 7/8

Early Afternoon: 24/8

Late Afternoon: 15/8

Early Evening: 26/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 7/7

Regular 3D: 0/5

Dolby: 52/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 9/10

 

Comps (T minus)

2.250x Inside Out 2 for $29.3M

2.118x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.2M

2.057x GB:FE for $7.6M

6.545x Wonka for $22.9M

18.000x Garfield for $34.2M

24.000x IF for $42.0M

Average: $24.4M

 

Another big day. I think people woke up this week and realized they need to figure out what to do with their kids over the holidays.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-15 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 79

New Sales: 7

Growth: 10%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 7/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 15/8

Early Evening: 28/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 7/7

Regular 3D: 0/5

Dolby: 57/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 11/10

 

Comps

2.469x Inside Out 2 for $32.1M

1.975 Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.5M

2.257x GB:FE for $8.4M

4.647x Wonka for $16.3M

19.750x Garfield for $37.5M

26.333x IF for $46.1M

Average: $25.0M

 

Slightly slower dat today, but still doing really well 2 weeks out.

[Hiccup23]

Chicago Alamo House 

 

A Quiet Place: Day 1	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	61	206	29.6%
Twisters	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	52	206	25.2%
The Bikeriders	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
EA Wednesday	61	61	100.0%
Thursday	33	130	25.4%
Despicable Me 4	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	2	412	0.5%
MaXXXine	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Wednesday EA	65	65	100.0%
Friday	74	401	18.5%
Saturday	52	401	13.0%
Sunday	24	401	6.0%

 

 

[John2015]

22 hours ago, JonathanMB said:

The last Focus/Regency release was The Northman, which opened to $12.3M for a $34.2M total off a $70M budget. Bikeriders' reported budget is $40M, and being a late acquisition probably means the breakeven point for Focus is not that high. If it can get even close to that Northman opening I think that would be a genuine win (especially since it's opening in 700 less theaters).

plus "The Northman" did huge business on VOD, and Focus actually made profit on it.

 

"The Bikeriders" is the kind of films that will over-perform on VOD.  

[Shawn Robbins]

BOT weekend forecast is up: https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-as-the-bikeriders-debuts-pixars-inside-out-2-gears-up-for-stellar-2nd-weekend-hold-at-76m/

 

Pinpoints and full chart on Substack: https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/weekend-forecast-as-the-bikeriders

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/17/2024 at 9:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

CANADAMTC1 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-38 Thursday: 24243/207399

T-39 Friday: 14763/271893

T-40 Saturday: 10526/288179

T-41 Sunday: 3336/282085

 

CANADAMTC2 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-38 Thursday: 6617/33412

T-39 Friday: 5087/43635

T-40 Saturday: 4397/44803

T-41 Sunday: 2380/44803

CANADAMTC1 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-37 Thursday: 24466/207557

T-38 Friday: 14959/271893

T-39 Saturday: 10636/288179

T-40 Sunday: 3393/282093

 

Numbers are from yesterday night. I will hold off on posting CanadaMTC2 for now until I can look into the potential blocked seats

[Inceptionzq]

CANADAMTC1 Despicable Me 4

T-15 Wednesday: 939/230100

T-16 Thursday: 188/229845

T-17 Friday: 318/235181

T-18 Saturday: 688/238189

[Inceptionzq]

CANADAMTC1 A Quiet Place Day One

T-9 Thursday: 501/82547

T-10 Friday: 577/142506

T-11 Saturday: 314/157746

T-12 Sunday: 141/156530

[jeffthehat]

On 6/18/2024 at 10:22 AM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana 

The Bikeriders T-2 

Sales	Seats	Shows
229	8450	73

TC = 23, pulled 10 AM EST

Comps

0.62x Challengers T-2 = $984k

0.29x Furiosa T-2 = $1.02m

0.39x Civil War T-2 = $1.14m*

*pulled 10ish hrs earlier

 

AVG = $1.05m

Indiana 

The Bikeriders T-1 

Sales	Seats	Shows
274	8654	82

TC = 25, pulled 11 AM EST

Comps

0.62x Challengers T-1 = $937k*

0.31x Furiosa T-1 = $1.08m

0.39x Civil War T-1 = $1.13m*

*pulled 10ish hrs earlier

 

AVG = $1.05m

Edited June 19 by jeffthehat

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/17/2024 at 9:51 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Awesome stuff. BTW you cannot get Denver data as well?

I can get Denver data, the script just isn't usually stable enough to run in the background. It likes to break. Which is ok in the days leading up to release, but that just means if/when it breaks when I have it automatically run on release day, I'm out of luck and can't get the data. But I will get around to it and start posting data again before A Quiet Place

[misterpepp]

On 5/17/2024 at 12:20 PM, misterpepp said:

Longlegs on sale July 1

This actually goes on sale tomorrow.

[el sid]

First, an update for AQP: Day One from last Sunday for Thursday, June 27: 

It had nice 860 sold tickets. 11 days left.

 

Comps (both films counted for Thursday): Halloween Ends (5.4M from previews) had with 10 days left 511 sold tickets = 9.1M + 1 day left.

And Nope (6.4M) had also with 10 days left 1.355 sold tickets = 4.1M + 1 day left.

Average: 6.6M + 1 day left.

 

And two additional loose comps (also both counted for Thursday): Insidious: The Red Door (5M) had with 8 days left 260 sold tickets.

And AQP II (4.8M) had with 9 days left 402 sold tickets and on Monday of the release week 747 sold tickets. 

[Flip]

I was checking maXXXine shows near me, and I think 10m+ is more likely than not, in just one theater it’s sold as much as Twisters’ first day

[el sid]

Bikeriders, counted today for Thursday, had 208 sold tickets in now 6 of my 7 theaters (no shows in the action-affine AMC in NY). 

 

The average number from six films, namely Civil War, Expendables 4, Plane, Bullet Train, Meg 2 and The Fall Guy was pretty exactly 1M (so it definitely improved). 

 

This film is really hard to predict. Overall I agree with several members here who track that movie that the studio gave up on this film too early. IMO the trailer is interesting and the film could have decent walk-ups.

The shows in the AMCs Metreon in San Francisco and the AMC Lakeline in Texas were added very recently so it could see a nice jump till tomorrow. With shows in all 7 theaters it would probably have been at ~ 400 sold tickets today, not bad and e.g. way in front of Ambulance (8.7M OW). 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Despicable Me 4 T-14: 67.42% Awareness, 57.49% Interest

MaXXXine T-16: 17.98% Awareness, 31.97% Interest

Cuckoo T-44: 11.7% Awareness, 36.09% Interest

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-44: 18.2% Awareness, 30.86% Interest

Trap T-51: 23.03% Awareness, 46.23% Interest

Megalopolis T-100: 15.12% Awareness, 32.89% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-128: 42.03% Awareness, 54.35% Interest

Gladiator II T-156: 28.98% Awareness, 44.53% Interest

Den of Thieves: Pantera T-205: 19.44% Awareness, 33.89% Interest

 

The Bikeriders T-2: 28.52% Awareness, 37.13% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

THE BIKERIDERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
354	1014	73288	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.263x) of Furiosa $920k

(0.529x) of Challengers $846k

(0.329x) of Civil War $954k
Comps AVG: $907k 

 

No comment. Didn't even know this movie existed yesterday 

[Unfitclock]

Just out of curiosity has anyone looked at the Russell Crowe movie coming out this weekend? 

[AniNate]

On 6/16/2024 at 8:13 AM, AniNate said:

TWISTERS

 

NORTH CANTON

Wednesday EA - 13
Thursday - 22
Friday - 20

 

VALLEY VIEW (CLEVELAND)

Wednesday EA - 13
Thursday - 12
Friday - 7

 

Interesting to compare these to Bad Boys presales at the outset where Valley View had the lions' share. Another illustration of the customer demographic contrast. 

 

 

 

NORTH CANTON

 

WED EA - 16
THUR - 26
FRI - 23

 

VALLEY VIEW (CLEVELAND)

 

WED EA - 17
THUR - 17
FRI - 13

 

Welp, now at the month point, so I would expect presales to start ramping up fairly soon if this is the kind of mid-America appeal film I'm thinking/hoping it will be.

[Human]

52 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

 

Welp, now at the month point, so I would expect presales to start ramping up fairly soon if this is the kind of mid-America appeal film I'm thinking/hoping it will be.

Its has been making the top 20 disk sales these past few weeks, so people willing to spend with their wallets are interested.  (Granted Beetlejuice is doing much better).

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Unfitclock said:

Just out of curiosity has anyone looked at the Russell Crowe movie coming out this weekend? 

 

FLORIDA 

 

THE EXORCISM 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
295	287	54935	0.52%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.358x) of The Watcher $358k

(0.220x) of Night Swim $330k

Comps average: $344k

 

This will be a walkup film. Still very anemic. Thinking around $500k previews, ~$5M OW