The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[THUNDER BIRD]

52 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Previews (T-6) - 283054/1380393 5083272.32 8707 shows +13700ish (slightly more as I took run a bit earlier)

 

Filling in while Keyser is away. Much bigger day than Thor or BP2 aided by final trailer. 

Final trailer has taken the hype to a different level now.

[THUNDER BIRD]

Deadpool & Wolverine Pre sales are about to enter berserker mode.

[SpiderByte]

And critic reactions this week as well, which will likely be very positive with how confident they are in them

[Boxofficerules]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

And critic reactions this week as well, which will likely be very positive with how confident they are in them

When did Ant Man reaction hit?

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Previews (T-6) - 283054/1380393 5083272.32 8707 shows +13700ish (slightly more as I took run a bit earlier)

 

Filling in while Keyser is away. Much bigger day than Thor or BP2 aided by final trailer. 

At T-4 , he will surpass the 300K club ( where AM3, GOTG 3 and Spiderverse 2 finish) . At this point he will be around 18M previews already . To surpass 30M , it should make around 500K which is really possible if the final week is good. To surpass DS2 , it should be around 600K which is really difficult but not impossible . I'm agree with @keysersoze123 32-34M previews for me at this point. For OW , i was on 170-180M OW , which is possible but with really good WOM.

 

PS : It's me or the number of shows is the biggest I see for this tracking ?

 

PS-PS : we agree , World Premiere and Embargo end is Monday night/ Tuesday Morning in Europe ?

Edited July 20 by Grand Cine

[SpiderByte]

56 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

When did Ant Man reaction hit?

Actually earlier, a full week and a half I think. But they didn't also tour around the first 40 minutes of that like they have this

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

At T-4 , he will surpass the 300K club ( where AM3, GOTG 3 and Spiderverse 2 finish) . At this point he will be around 18M previews already . To surpass 30M , it should make around 500K which is really possible if the final week is good. To surpass DS2 , it should be around 600K which is really difficult but not impossible . I'm agree with @keysersoze123 32-34M previews for me at this point. For OW , i was on 170-180M OW , which is possible but with really good WOM.

 

PS : It's me or the number of shows is the biggest I see for this tracking ?

 

PS-PS : we agree , World Premiere and Embargo end is Monday night/ Tuesday Morning in Europe ?

From what I saw yesterday in my sample dare I say $35M+

[Ryan C]

9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

From what I saw yesterday in my sample dare I say $35M+

 

If that's the case and we give the film a multipler of just over/under 5.3, that would give Deadpool and Wolverine a $185M opening weekend. That's really close to what Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness opened to back in May 2022. 

 

However, if I remember correctly, I think Doctor Strange 2 was set to open to at least $200M based on insanely strong pre-sales and even it's opening day number, but came in lower at $187.4M due to mixed word-of-mouth. That's why strong word-of-mouth will be essential in seeing if D&W can hit $200M next weekend. 

 

It's gonna be a lot harder to gauge because this is opening in the more frontloaded month of July as supposed to May, but as long as early reviews are good and the reactions from the first 40 minutes translate to the rest of the movie, we're gonna be in for a wild ride. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/18/2024 at 3:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
349	764	65921	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

(0.526x) of Bad Boys $3.10M

 

*Breakout alert*

Can't think of any comps, but yeah this is really good

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
349	1099	65921	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

209

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-19

(0.756x) of Bad Boys $4.46M

(0.620x) of Quiet Place $4.22M

Comps AVG: $4.34M

 

DANG! Seeing enough to call it a breakout. 

[HummingLemon496]

If it actually happens we gotta give some kind of reward to everybody who went in on the $191M+ OW club

[Eric the Marxist]

17 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

If it actually happens we gotta give some kind of reward to everybody who went in on the $191M+ OW club

Dude, it's not that big a deal lol

[AniNate]

Don't think I'm gonna have a better pulse on Deadpool than others in this thread so I'm just moving to tracking N Canton presales for Twisters' next weekend. Was at 27 total last I checked this morning and now it's at 37.

[AniNate]

LMAO I'm learning the lesson now that I really shouldn't have relied on Baldwin hills / Crenshaw to get a pulse on West coast interest. Deadpool looks like it's selling jack diddly there next weekend too. Is that just like a real crappy theater or something?

[Maaatt]

29 minutes ago, AniNate said:

LMAO I'm learning the lesson now that I really shouldn't have relied on Baldwin hills / Crenshaw to get a pulse on West coast interest. Deadpool looks like it's selling jack diddly there next weekend too. Is that just like a real crappy theater or something?

 
its funny you bring this up cause i meant to tell you this when you mentioned it the other day.. dont rely on this theater to gage how the LA market is performing. Yes it is a shitty theater for one haha. Its dated & needs to be upgraded and is next to a dated indoor mall (that is past its prime).  Cinemark isn’t that big in LA either. this is the most centrally located Cinemark i can think of but its not that centrally located.  
 

Where this theater really is more beneficial is perhaps gaging black audience reception (Baldwin Hills and surrounding area used to be known as “the black beverly hills”). Bad Boys 4 for instance did well here (its the theater Will Smith went to opening weekend and surprised one showtime). So i dont think this theater was a great fit for Twisters to begin with.. but besides that its also just a relatively low trafficked theater (because of its lack of modern amenities.. things like recliner seats.. which is really where LA audiences at least have been running to). Look at AMC’s like Century City, The Grove, Burbank 16 (these are often among the top grossing theaters in the country), Universal, Santa Monica, the Americana at Brand, AMC Topanga.. the downtown Alamo drafthouse and others.  All these locations look to be selling similar to this summers 50-60 million live action movies (Day one, Bad Boys, Apes) give or take just eyeballing it. Not the crazy business the midwest is seeing but solid i’d say. 

[SpiderByte]

For inexplicable reasons ONLY NOW has my local AMC started selling IMAX tickets.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/19/2024 at 9:45 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1197	30015	253176	11.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1482

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.319x) of Dune 2 $40.16M 

 

Just pure madness in Florida 

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1197	32525	253176	12.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2510

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-5

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.443x) of Dune 2 $41.32M 

 

The madness somehow gets crazier. It might actually quintuple Dune 2 final count by T-0

[Ryan C]

Deadpool and Wolverine

 

T-5

 

Thursday: 12,217 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 11:00PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Instead of just tracking my two local AMC theaters and for the entire weekend, I decided to track 11 other theaters (all are still AMC) that are not too terribly far from my area and keep it to Thursday. To say that it's doing well in all of the theaters I checked would be an understatement. There was also a noticeable uptick in sales from the two theaters I tracked last night. Nothing major, but a clear sign that the last week is already starting to kick into high gear. 

 

Unless something catastrophic happens, a $30M+ in Thursday previews (with these kinds of sales) is practically a given. 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Previews (T-6) - 283054/1380393 5083272.32 8707 shows +13700ish (slightly more as I took run a bit earlier)

 

Filling in while Keyser is away. Much bigger day than Thor or BP2 aided by final trailer. 

Deadpool and Wolverine MTC1 Previews (T-5) 

296429/1387644 5304135.51 8779 shows +13375

 

Excellent day considering Sat typically drops and yesterday was inflated by the trailer. 

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-6 Days

 

Previews - 17239/108313 (458 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $37.1M

Thor 4 - $35.5M 

GoTG 3 - $36.1M

 

And so it begins?

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-5 Days

 

Previews - 18446/108765 (460 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $37.7M

Thor 4 - $36M 

GoTG 3 - $36.7M

 

Another outstanding day.

[Cooper Legion]

Waiting on Sacto for grid update but thinking over 35 for first time in run (midpoint has been 35.0 in the past so not like a huge change or anything, just bumping up a bit)

Edited July 21 by Joyous Legion