The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric is Smiling]

Quorum Updates

Here T-16: 22.08% Awareness, 41.34% Interest

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-23: 19.57% Awareness, 34.74% Interest

Moana 2 T-42: 67% Awareness, 55.26% Interest

A Complete Unknown T-70: 17.98% Awareness, 33.88% Interest

The Fire Inside T-70: 13.59% Awareness, 32.18% Interest

Flight Risk T-100: 24.77% Awareness, 46.03% Interest

Novocaine T-149: 11.2% Awareness, 36.29% Interest

Michael T-184: 32.94% Awareness, 52.17% Interest

 

Smile 2 T-2: 56.2% Awareness, 45.34% Interest

Final Awareness: 93% chance of 20M, 71% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 30M

 

The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim T-58: 20.56% Awareness, 43.39% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 14% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 78% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M, 22% chance of 30M

T-60 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 75% chance of 20M

[Eric is Smiling]

https://deadline.com/2024/10/smile-2-box-office-1236117666/

 

Quote

There’s really one true one wide release this weekend and it’s Paramount‘s sequel Smile 2 which currently presales point toward a high-teens result. Tracking earlier this week indicated higher in the $20M+ range but that all depends on whether Latino and Hispanic moviegoers send this $28M priced sequel to the 2022 original to another stratosphere.

 

 

Why the lower result here for Smile 2? When the first movie opened, there wasn’t a lot of horror on the marquee at the time, much of the fall sparse due to the delay of movies coming out of Covid, and the post production logjam. We’ll continue to assess the up and down as the weekend goes on.

 

Smile 2 will have the PLFs as part of its 3,500 theater count this weekend. Where’s the Imax screens? Why they’re part of a three-week deal on Warner Bros’ bomb Joker: Folie a Deux.

 

The R-rated Smile 2 is largely under 25 female skewing to the male skewing Terrifier 3 which did a great $2.2M yesterday for a five-day running total of $23.7M. The Cineverse microbudget success is expected to ease -60% in weekend 2 per sources for around $7.6M. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the unrated horror film holds better. Smile 2 and Terrifier 3 do have some overlap in their audiences.

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Grand Cine]

5 hours ago, justnumbers said:

Wonder if M3GAN could see the same fate as Smile 2 if novelty also wears off 

I think M3GAN 2 will have a better marketing than Smile 2 and the former will have the advantage to be on Summer

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think M3GAN 2 will have a better marketing than Smile 2 and the former will have the advantage to be on Summer

They are already doing a M3GAN spinoff with a sexbot. Studio exes have NO freaking clue.

[lorddemaxus]

The kids have already moved on to Art the Clown. Next year, theyll find some new horror thing to latch onto. 28 Years Later is probably making more

[kayumanggi]

 

[vafrow]

General question, more for Canadian trackers, does anyone know why Universal releases don't get released in VIP theatres in Cineplex?  I just saw someone say this on the chain's subreddit. I went back and checked all my Universal releases, and it seems to be the case.

 

Is this a similar occurrence in US based chains? Are VIP theatres a thing elsewhere? I thought Alamo was essentially the VIP concept. Premium seats, table service and age restrictions.

 

If that's the case, that's going to be a big hurdle for Wicked. It feels like it would do really well there. VIP tickets go for more than IMAX tickets. Barbie did gangbusters with the format here, and this feels like the closest thing.

 

I don't know why Universal would be against it other than bickering over studio share of ticket prices.

 

Edited Wednesday at 08:46 PM by vafrow

[jeffthehat]

On 10/15/2024 at 12:30 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana 

Smile 2 T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
372	10171	60

Comps

0.83x Trap = $1.8m

0.67x Longlegs = $2.0m

2.73x Imaginary = $2.0m

0.95x Terrifier 3 = $2.3m

 

AVG = $2.03m

 

2 theaters are having issues so comps could be undershooting 5-10% 

 

 

Indiana 

Smile 2 T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
520	11230	73

Comps

0.95x Trap = $2.1m

0.71x Longlegs = $2.1m

3.31x Imaginary = $2.4m

 

AVG = $2.20m

 

Good day, had the wrong # for Terrifier yesterday

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

General question, more for Canadian trackers, does anyone know why Universal releases don't get released in VIP theatres in Cineplex?  I just saw someone say this on the chain's subreddit. I went back and checked all my Universal releases, and it seems to be the case.

 

Is this a similar occurrence in US based chains? Are VIP theatres a thing elsewhere? I thought Alamo was essentially the VIP concept. Premium seats, table service and age restrictions.

 

If that's the case, that's going to be a big hurdle for Wicked. It feels like it would do really well there. VIP tickets go for more than IMAX tickets. Barbie did gangbusters with the format here, and this feels like the closest thing.

 

I don't know why Universal would be against it other than bickering over studio share of ticket prices.

 

all I know is that there’s some sort of dispute. I haven’t been told what over, but likely something to do with %’s.

[el sid]

I'm sorry that I didn't report since weeks. It wasn't my fault. After the last update of the AMC site I had no access from my old PC. And this was the only computer where I had access from Germany to the  page where the actual sold tickets were shown. And I didn't know what to do (once again), how to fix the problem. 

 

Today, because I missed the counting especially in autumn for horror and adventure movies so much, I tried to get access with the old links (not easy from Germany) with an old Smartphone. And it worked (partly) :). 

It will take me a while to find all (NY) comps for Smile 2 but it looks good for the movie.

Edited Wednesday at 10:02 PM by el sid

[Unfitclock]

How much is we live in time expanding this weekend does anybody know?

[el sid]

So, Smile 2 had on Wednesday, counted for tomorrow, nice 161 sold tickets in the AMC in NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7). It has 5 shows, a good number for previews. OTOH Smile had 4 shows back then and course a sequel to such a successful film should get more.

 

Average from 5 other comps, namly: Prey for the Devil,  M3gan, Smile (69 sold tickets in NY on that day but of course a sequel is more frontloaded), The Invitation and Abigail (all movies counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): 3.5M. 

 

So, a very nice number. Of course this is only one theater (but pretty big and horror affine) and I don't know how walk-ups and reviews will turn out.

 

Edited Wednesday at 11:30 PM by el sid

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

all I know is that there’s some sort of dispute. I haven’t been told what over, but likely something to do with %’s.

 

That's what I figure. I'm just surprised it's a dispute that's dragged out like this.

 

With Glicked weekend, you'd think that means that Gladiator would get those screens, but they don't have them allocated there either. And Paramount has Smile 2 in VIP theatres, so there's no studio dispute there.

 

Maybe there's still negotiations happening on Wicked, so they're keeping their options open.

[MightyDargon]

Need more Gladiator numbers

[filmpalace]

On 10/16/2024 at 12:00 AM, filmpalace said:

Smile 2 T-2

 

Tickets sold: 177 (+22)

Growth: 14%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

 

2,46x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 3,2M

0,91x Terrifier 3 (T-2) – 2,2M

14,75x Never Let Go (T-2) – 5,3M

8,43x The Substance (T-2) – 2,8M

 

Average: 3,4M

 

Though not uncommon for horror, growth hasn’t been that high these past few days. I’m not too worried yet, but It should definitely be accelerating now. Especially with the T-Mobile deal starting today.

Smile 2 T-1

 

Tickets sold: 218 (+41)

Growth: 23%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 8

 

2,10x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 2,7M

0,97x Terrifier 3 (T-1) – 2,3M

9,90x Never Let Go (T-1) – 3,6M

7,52x The Substance (T-1) – 2,5M

 

Average: 2,8M

 

Bad growth for T-1. Hoping for a strong final day to get it around 3M, but for now I’d guess this will end up with ~2.5M

[el sid]

And Smile 2 isn't frontloaded in my AMC in NY (Fresh Meadows): 

 

It had today for Friday 263 sold tickets. 

Smile had back then 120 sold tickets (and e.g. M3gan (8.95M true Friday) had 154 sold tickets and Nope (13.1M true Friday) had 340). Of course, a sequel is frontloaded but Smile 2 is doing fine so far in that important theater.

[vafrow]

I just did a prelimary check on Smile 2 and it's doing phenomenal here. I'll do the official T-1 update tomorrow morning, but it's up 62% already from this morning, and has caught AQP:D1, which under indexed here. Stil, it's outpaced my comps already today with time left on the clock.

 

Not sure if this is regional deviation or if it's seeing similar elsewhere. I know other forecasts still had this struggling all week.

[HummingLemon496]

Question for people who were tracking three years ago, when did Venom 2 start blowing up? Might be useful to see where Venom 3 is headed for previews. . .

Edited yesterday at 12:20 AM by HummingLemon496

[Shawn Robbins]

As I always have, I'm throwing my weight behind "Wickiator" if we're gonna have nomenclature for the November 22 duo. Wicked is going to open #1 so it probably deserves to have priority in the ordering of things. (I say this as a MASSIVE Gladiator fan.)

 

Incidentally, it also makes me long for the never-gonna-happen dual weekend release of a John Wick film alongside another Gladiator sequel.

 

But I'm also fine having no gimmicky name at all. 😄