The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan C]

On 10/9/2024 at 12:34 AM, Ryan C said:

Gladiator II

 

T-44

 

Thursday: 1,243 Seats Sold (From 16 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 12:25 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: This also includes the "Fan Event" showngs, but since they're on the same day as the actual Thursday previews, I'm putting them into the number of seats sold for that day. 

 

Looking at this, it's definitely carried by IMAX, but since Wicked is coming out on the same weekend, it's not gonna get the full PLF footprint. Not sure how much this'll affect its run (as both movies are going after completely different demographics), but it's sure to at least take some business away from it. 

 

Also, about 60% of seats sold right now (746 Seats) are for the "Fan Event" showings and though this is only the first day of pre-sales, it's not exactly an encouraging sign. The hope is that unlike Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, this one is a lot more walk-up heavy and since it's both releasing at November and is just a sequel (not a deep franchise installment) I think it has a chance to do a lot better than Furiosa. 

 

I'll continue to track this one at least once a week (until the weekend it opens), but if this one wants to avoid the same fate as Furiosa, it's gotta play more than in just the PLF screens (even Furiosa got the full footprint for two weeks) and it has to get casual audiences in there. Definitely possible, but I'm skeptical right now. 

 

Gladiator II

 

T-36

 

Thursday: 1,713 Seats Sold (37.8% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 12:30 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A solid increase from last week. It's still heavily carried by the IMAX showtimes, but there is still a lot of time (a little over a month) for this to make up ground. Discounting the "Fan Event" showings, there was a 50% bump in ticket sales from the other showings on Thursday within the past week. Definitely a good sign for this one's pacing over the next few weeks. 

 

This is really one of those cases that we're not going to be able to make any final judgements until the final week of pre-sales. As @emoviefan put out to me last week, this really could go either one of two directions. It could be as walk-up heavy as Twisters or it could have no walk-up business like Furiosa. 

 

If we want Wickedator to be the next Barbenheimer, we better hope this follows the Twisters direction. Will continue to track this one every week. 

Edited 16 hours ago by Ryan C

[misterpepp]

Overlord: The Sacred Kingdom on sale Oct 18

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Ryan C said:

 

Gladiator II

 

T-36

 

Thursday: 1,713 Seats Sold (37.8% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 12:30 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A solid increase from last week. It's still heavily carried by the IMAX showtimes, but there is still a lot of time (a little over a month) for this to make up ground. Discounting the "Fan Event" showings, there was a 50% bump in ticket sales from the other showings on Thursday within the past week. Definitely a good sign for this one's pacing over the next few weeks. 

 

This is really one of those cases that we're not going to be able to make any final judgements until the final week of pre-sales. As @emoviefan put out to me last week, this really could go either one of two directions. It could be as walk-up heavy as Twisters or it could have no walk-up business like Furiosa. 

 

If we want Wickedator to be the next Barbenheimer, we better hope this follows the Twisters direction. Will continue to track this one every week. 

I will add to that if the reviews are good I do not see a repeat of Furiosa. I think it will play to a lot more casual audience that will pay attention to good reviews and decide to go ala Twisters where as Furiosa played so  niche in the end the good reviews did not mean  squat.

[Ryan C]

On 10/9/2024 at 2:59 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-15

 

Thursday: 2,281 Seats Sold (59.1% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 2:45 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Not a whole lot to say about this one right now, but I do have some good news. It's currently pacing better than Joker: Folie à Deux at the same point (59.1% to 33.3%) and though Joker 2 may have had stronger demand/sales for PLF screens, that won't necessarily be the case for this film. 

 

It'll still be nice to have the PLF screens, but if this is as walk-up heavy as we hope it to be, how it does in non-PLF showings is far more important. 

 

Overall, a solid update from last week when tickets went on sale. If the pace keeps steady these next few weeks, then I'd absolutely bet on this having a higher preview number than Joker: Folie à Deux. 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-8

 

Thursday: 2,789 Seats Sold (22.2% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 1:55 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Ok, this kind of fell back down to earth. We'll still have a better idea of where this is headed by next week, but this is a pretty subpar bump from last week. 

 

Just for comparison's sake, Joker: Folie a Deux had a slightly higher pace at the same point (24.2% to 22.2%). However, despite that one having more tickets sold, I'm more than comfortable betting that this won't have the abysmal word-of-mouth that destroyed any chance of that film even meeting the most pessimistic of expectations. 

 

The story isn't completely written yet, but Deadline's recent article of this tracking at around $70M sounds about right if we expect good walk-up business to come in. Still a good opening, but probably not going to be a breakout. 

[Krissykins]

Empire is going with sub $20m for Smile 2, and an opening in the $70m range for Venom 3.

 

But $120m for Wicked. Bring it on! 
 

(hope Smile has great walk ups, seen more reactions and they were very positive. Review embargo lifts this afternoon). 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Smile 2, T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 57

New Sales: 13

Growth: 30%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 5.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Early Evening: 42/5

Late Evening: 15/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 57/10

 

Comps 

0.626x AQP:D1 for $4.3M

0.235x Alien Romulus for $1.5M

0.370x Furiosa for $1.3M

 

Average: $2.4M

 

Another solid day. And there's no T-Mobile deal here or anything. This just started really picking up after it was completely dead last week. Remarkable turnaround.

 

Smile 2, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 95

New Sales: 38

Growth: 67%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Tickets per Showtime: 9.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Early Evening: 71/5

Late Evening: 24/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 88/8

Dolby: 7/2

 

 

Comps 

0.864x AQP:D1 for $5.9M

0.318x Alien Romulus for $2.1M

0.495x Furiosa for $1.7M

 

Average: $3.2M

 

Amazing growth here down the stretch. It's almost caught AQP:D1. 

Edited 11 hours ago by vafrow

[vafrow]

On 10/13/2024 at 6:15 AM, vafrow said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 101

New Sales: 7

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 5.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 9/4

Early Evening: 69/8

Late Evening: 23/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 5/1

Dolby 3D: 31/6

IMAX: 28/4

IMAX 3D: 4/2

4DX 3D: 3/3

VIP: 30/3

 

Comps 

0.871x Joker 2 for $5.5M

2.104x GB:FE for $9.9M

1.161x Beetlejuice² for $11.3M

 

Average: $8.9M

 

Continues to be steady 

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-9, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 144

New Sales since T-9: 43

Growth: 43%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 7.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 12/4

Early Evening: 103/8

Late Evening: 29/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 7/1

Dolby 3D: 39/6

IMAX: 44/4

IMAX 3D: 5/2

4DX 3D: 5/3

VIP: 44/3

 

Comps 

1.099x Joker 2 for $6.9M

2.483x GB:FE for $11.7M

1.485x Beetlejuice² for $14.5M

 

Average: $11.0M

 

This continues to remain hot in this market. Growth is staying pretty consistent around 10% a day, which is impressive this far out. 

[vafrow]

On 10/13/2024 at 6:26 AM, vafrow said:

 

Wicked, D4, T-40, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 49

New Sales: 5

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 11

Tickets per Showtime: 4.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 11/3

Early Evening: 30/5

Late Evening: 8/3

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/1

Regular 3D: 0/2

Dolby: 11/2

Dolby 3D: 38/6

 

Comps

2.042x Beetlejuice 2 for $20.0M

0.803x Joker 2 for $5.1M

0.297x Dune 2 for $3.0M

 

Average: $9.3M 

 

EA sales

Total sales: 120

New sales : 4

Growth: 3%

Theatres: 3

Showtimes: 3

Formats: Dolby 3D

 

1.765x Joker 2 for $1.2M

5.714x Beetlejuice 2 for $17.7M

0.374x Dune 2 for $0.7M

 

Average: $6.6M

 

Still at marginal growth, which is still impressive this far out. It's not stagnating.

 

Wicked, T-37, western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 69

New Sales since T-40: 20

Growth: 41%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 11

Tickets per Showtime: 6.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 16/3

Early Evening: 43/5

Late Evening: 10/3

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/1

Regular 3D: 0/2

Dolby: 16/2

Dolby 3D: 53/6

 

Comps

Not available 

 

 

EA sales

Total sales: 131

New sales since T-40: 11

Growth: 9%

Theatres: 3

Showtimes: 3

Formats: Dolby 3D

 

Comps not available 

 

I wasn't going to post until close enough to have decent comps again, but felt it was worth it to highlight the growth here. I'm not sure if it was the SNL appearance or not, or just the general marketing, but it's impressive to maintain this level of interest over a month out.

[justnumbers]

Wonder if M3GAN could see the same fate as Smile 2 if novelty also wears off 

[vafrow]

12 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

Wonder if M3GAN could see the same fate as Smile 2 if novelty also wears off 

 

We haven't seen Smile play out yet. But even if the outcome is a slightly reduced box office of a surprise low budget hit, that's still a decent outcome.

 

Smile 2 being a bit underwhelming (and I'm not convinced of that outcome yet based on numbers in my market) only really is notable because Joker 2 fell so hard.

[leoh]

53 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

Wonder if M3GAN could see the same fate as Smile 2 if novelty also wears off 

I still don’t get why on earth Universal changed M3GAN sequel from May 9 where it’d be the only horror release to put it just one week after 20 Years Later, which will be a way more high profile horror movie ($75 million budget, IMAX release, Alex Garland writing, Dany Boyle directing, Cillian Murphy and Aaron Taylor Johnson staring). A lot of M3GAN hype will be muted by 20 Years Later, which it’ll probably get way more buzz. Universal put M3GAN between 20 Year Later and Superman, crazy!

Edited 8 hours ago by leoh

[AniNate]

Sometimes I feel like industry psychology works against it. There really was nothing wrong with that new year release date the first m3gan went with, why not just do that again?

 

I suppose they could still delay the sequel to 2026.

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, leoh said:

I still don’t get why on earth Universal changed M3GAN sequel from May 9 where it’d be the only horror release to put it just one week after 20 Years Later, which will be a way more high profile horror movie ($75 million budget, IMAX release, Alex Garland writing, Dany Boyle directing, Cillian Murphy and Aaron Taylor Johnson staring). A lot of M3GAN hype will be muted by 20 Years Later, which it’ll probably get way more buzz.

Oh I suspect it will be the other way around. 

[filmpalace]

I think teens will be a lot more interested in a M3GAN sequel than a 28 Days Later sequel

[ThomasNicole]

Smile 2 is the type of horror that people just walk in, there’s no fanbase involced. The reviews are pretty good, sales are starting to showing signs of life. 
 

I don’t think it’ll explode, but i don’t see it falling from the first just yet. Right now i’m expecting 22M-ish. 
 

Tomorrow is the make or break day.

Edited 6 hours ago by ThomasNicole

[M37]

19 hours ago, Eric is Smiling said:

I guess this is the best place to put it? My Regal just updated their showtimes for this weekend, and Smile 2 has 4DX and RPX, while IMAX is shared with Wild Robot in the afternoon and Beetlejuice in the evening (oh and Deadpool has ScreenX, but nobody likes ScreenX, so who cares?).

 

Will say I was half-convinced Joker was going to be like Birds of Prey where it would still have IMAX for three weeks, even though it absolutely did not deserve it. But on the other hand, the fact that Smile 2 isn't getting the most popular PLF format of them all really says a lot about Paramount/exhibitors' confidence on it. Which is uh...yeah.

My guess would be that WB had secured a 3-week exclusive IMAX run for what they expected to be a hit, and with Joker 2 collapsing, they’re giving those evening shoes to Beetlejuice, matinee up for grabs 

 

Paramount may not have even cut an IMAX (or Screen X) version for Smile 2, being sandwiched between Joker and Venom on the calendar. Digital IMAX is dual projectors, so can’t just plug the standard version content in there and have it work (like you can for Dolby, RPX, etc formats)

[kayumanggi]

 

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Smile 2 is the type of horror that people just walk in, there’s no fanbase involced. The reviews are pretty good, sales are starting to showing signs of life. 
 

I don’t think it’ll explode, but i don’t see it falling from the first just yet. Right now i’m expecting 22M-ish. 
 

Tomorrow is the make or break day.

I could see it catching on similar to the first movie in terms of good holds since it's the most high-profile horror offering this Halloween that isn't Terrifier (and should appeal to those put off by the squeamish elements of those movies).

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited 5 hours ago by kayumanggi

[TheFlatLannister]

15 hours ago, leoh said:

Is this including the Fan Event showings  that are also happening on Thursday?
 

The good news is that it’s  improving significantly against the comps, particularly well against DW comp, which is a good sign. Let’s see how it paces from now on. Friday it has a primetime panel in NY Comic Con, which should help to increase the marketing buzz.

Yes it includes those Thursday fan events