The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Smile is gonna end with little more than half of the total of the first movie. That is a pretty big disappointment.

Yeah but most movies of that size would either do 10m OW or break out to 40 these days - at least that opening is relatively normalish.

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

Venom 3 T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
1523	34336	211

Comps

1.06x Alien Romulus = $6.9m

1.22x Joker 2 = $7.3m

0.80x GxK NE = $8.0m

1.02x Twisters = $8.4m

 

AVG = $7.65m

 

[Eric is Smiling]

Wait, I thought Gladiator was doing well and seeing good ticket spikes because of the reactions? Why we doing the whole "EVERYTHIGN IS BOMBING NOW" schtick?

[AniNate]

14 minutes ago, Eric is Smiling said:

Wait, I thought Gladiator was doing well and seeing good ticket spikes because of the reactions? Why we doing the whole "EVERYTHIGN IS BOMBING NOW" schtick?

 

It's more Venom people are panicking about

[Eric is Smiling]

Of course I have always been predicting Gladiator to open in the 50s or 60s? Like this is a movie that's aimed at old white guys, and most old white guy actioners (Bond, Indy, Mission: Impossible) all opened around here, and there's nothing in this that would make me think it would gain substantially more than that, especially when there's no Russell Crowe. Like I know, I know, budget and all, but Gladiator doing 50M+ seems pretty par for the course.

[HummingLemon496]

Sub-50M would be what like half of Venom 1 admits? Ouch

[Eric is Smiling]

https://deadline.com/2024/10/venom-the-last-dance-box-office-1236144422/

 

Quote

With the last couple of October weekends stateside being off from the strike-laden marketplace a year ago, hopefully, superhero sequelitis and moviegoers’ erratic attitudes toward prestige fare don’t push the theatrical marketplace down further.

 

Sony has their Marvel title Venom: The Last Dance which is bound to see its lowest opening in the trilogy, stateside that is, after the previous installment, Venom: Let There Be Carnage opened to a franchise high of $90M in October 2021 fueled by fanboys yearning to return to cinemas post Covid. The original Venom once owned the October opening record back in 2018 at $80.2M before 2019’s Joker unseated it with $96.2M.

 

U.S./Canada presales and tracking indicate an opening that’s just under that of 2022’s Black Adam ($67M) at $65M. Overseas is looking at $85M –possibly higher– for an all-in global weekend of $150M. Previews in U.S./Canada start at 2PM on Thursday. Young males under 25 are the first in, followed by older males over 25, which is to be expected on a comic-book movie as such. 

 

 

Focus Features is opening their critically acclaim Edward Berger directed, Ralph Fiennes starring papal thriller Conclave to $4M-$6M at 1,742 cinemas. Previews start Thursday at 2PM. Coming out of Telluride and TIFF, Conclave notched 95% fresh with critics on Rotten Tomatoes.

 

Meanwhile stateside, A24 and Studio Canal’s wide break of the Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh romance, We Live in Time, at 2,000 theaters is expected to see around $5M.

 

[AniNate]

Well, if Venom does disappoint, that pretty much puts the onus on Wicked and Moana to have those ridiculous breakout performances for this year to have any hope of catching up to '23.

[Grand Cine]

4 minutes ago, Eric is Smiling said:

https://deadline.com/2024/10/venom-the-last-dance-box-office-1236144422/

 

 

Great expansion for We Live in Time . Correct WW Weekend for Venom 3

[M37]

Just for the record…

 

Spoiler

because I’m obviously on 🔥 this year!

I remain bearish on Gladiator II, as it has always felt to me more like Alien Romulus (or a somewhat bigger Furiosa) than like a Kingdom POTA or even Twisters terms of appeal to casuals beyond the franchise brand 

 

In the end, just don’t think a swords & sandals action/epic will surpass the “worth paying for” hurdle for enough people, particularly when it’s a sequel almost in name only. And Scott isn’t in the Cameron/Nolan level of drawing an audience on his own

Though the absence of other adult options and/or split audience riding whatever coattails Wicked has can probably push it higher 

 

 

[cooldude97]

venom underperforming is going to put a lot more pressure on Kraven 

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

venom underperforming is going to put a lot more pressure on Kraven 

 

I don't think anyone really has high expectations for Kraven. I'd consider it a moral victory if it does $75mil.

[fmpro]

Did`ent this doom and gloom also happen when the 2nd open? Just to se it EXPLODE from thursday presale to saturday gross?

I still see 65-75 mill OW DOM and a chance of 450 mill WW. China should do 100 mill +.
Thats pretty good for a 110 mill budget movie

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, Eric is Smiling said:

Of course I have always been predicting Gladiator to open in the 50s or 60s? Like this is a movie that's aimed at old white guys, and most old white guy actioners (Bond, Indy, Mission: Impossible) all opened around here, and there's nothing in this that would make me think it would gain substantially more than that, especially when there's no Russell Crowe. Like I know, I know, budget and all, but Gladiator doing 50M+ seems pretty par for the course.

 

Well, it has Denzel Washington, that's a draw, and specifically a draw outside the core white demographic.

 

He's such a unique variable here, and has the potential to bring in his very specific audience. He doesn't do franchise films, so we don't have a clear understanding of how his value translates. But he's already being talked about as a standout in the film, so I imagine his base will be active.

 

I find both Wicked and Gladiator to be really interesting tracks. There's unique elements and both have generated interest with a long sales cycle. There's no guarantees, but there's far more reasons to be positive than negative on both right now.

[vale9001]

Gladiator has denzel Washington. Who cares about Russel Crowe, he peaked 20 years ago.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Well, it has Denzel Washington, that's a draw, and specifically a draw outside the core white demographic.

 

He's such a unique variable here, and has the potential to bring in his very specific audience. He doesn't do franchise films, so we don't have a clear understanding of how his value translates. But he's already being talked about as a standout in the film, so I imagine his base will be active.

He was in the 2016 remake of Magnificent 7 (a dying - now dead? - Western genre 🤔) , and I don’t think his role had much impact on grossing potential and audience demos  

[AniNate]

Gladiator was slightly sluggish at my last check but nothing to be overly concerned about yet. I would say averaging 17 Thursday sales per theater with over a month to go is a pretty solid start.

[Tinalera]

Wicked

Thurs Nov 21 Fri Nov 22(taken Oct 22)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver
	Thurs	4	11	158	2703	2861	0.0552	-1 show
	Fri	4	10	306	4313	4619	0.0662
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary
	Thurs	3	10	74	2134	2208	0.0335
	Fri	3	16	140	3329	3469	0.0403

 

 

Not much movement here a month out. I think theres going to be a wait and see what reviews are. Im not sure we will see alot of movement until closer to the release date, but who knows for certain. Right now I think the people who are going to see it regardless are buying the tickets, while rest its a wait and see IMO.

[Flip]

7 hours ago, AniNate said:

Y'all are reading too much into one guy's counts at 3, maybe 4 theaters? Wicked increased nearly 30% the last week in the 11 theaters I looked at.

 

Also, isn't Flip NYC based? Probably makes sense that there was a bigger fan rush there (and likely more capacity issues as well)

 

 

Yeah I’m tracking NYC with one NJ theater. I think the first week was also boosted a bit by Grande appearing on SNL (NY show). It’s not like the pace is bad (doesn’t matter too much since the raw numbers are enormous), just more that I was expecting it to stay a bit more steady than it did. 

[joselowe]

3 hours ago, Chubbycc said:

If Gladiator can get $70m I will be happy. Anything $50m or less is honestly disappointing. This movie should be seen on the biggest IMAX screen 

OW or domestic overall?