The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, fmpro said:

Did`ent this doom and gloom also happen when the 2nd open? Just to se it EXPLODE from thursday presale to saturday gross?

I still see 65-75 mill OW DOM and a chance of 450 mill WW. China should do 100 mill +.
Thats pretty good for a 110 mill budget movie

I am comparing this to last movie. It was at a tear by this point. But we did not know how crazy the walkups would be. This has to do even better than that to hit your numbers. I dont see that happening. I can see 60m if it goes on a tear this thursday but anything higher would be shocking. 

[Chubbycc]

21 minutes ago, joselowe said:

OW or domestic overall?

OW 

[fmpro]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am comparing this to last movie. It was at a tear by this point. But we did not know how crazy the walkups would be. This has to do even better than that to hit your numbers. I dont see that happening. I can see 60m if it goes on a tear this thursday but anything higher would be shocking. 

Okay. You track better than my gut speaks to me im sure. Lets see if its O/U 60 mill

They kept the budget under control and will make good money from a CBM. 
That is succes in my book these days

[filmpalace]

On 10/21/2024 at 11:57 PM, filmpalace said:

Venom: The Last Dance T-3

 

Tickets sold: 508 (+50)

Growth: 11%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 13

 

1,11x Joker 2 (T-3) – 7,2M

 

One theater I track actually removed 4 showtimes, because they had few to none tickets sold. Hoping for a strong final week, but based on my and other tracker’s numbers, I wouldn’t be surprised with an opening below 70M.

Venom: The Last Dance T-2

 

Tickets sold: 583 (+75)

Growth: 15%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 19

 

1,11x Joker 2 (T-2) – 7,2M

 

Joker comp stayed flat, so at least there’s that. Hope it can increase in the final 2 days.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/21/2024 at 6:56 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
701	6551	146911	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

482

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.037x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.53M

(0.768x) of Dune 2 $7.14M

(0.175x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.73M

Comps AVG: $6.80M

 

Continues to slip, not great. Still not seeing signs of acceleration as sales are just not improving. Struggling to see $60M OW from here...

FLORIDA 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
701	7657	146911	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1106

*1 Sellout

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.061x) of Joker Folie a Deux $6.69M

(0.761x) of Dune 2 $7.08M

(0.181x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $6.98M

Comps AVG: $6.92M

 

Pretty strong day. Finally seeing some acceleration, but not enough to move the needle much. Looks more like $7M previews than the $6mish it was looking like a few days ago. 

[DAJK]

Any acceleration is good acceleration. Unless it's negative acceleration, ala Folie a Deux lol.

[ringedmortality]

6 hours ago, Eric is Smiling said:

Of course I have always been predicting Gladiator to open in the 50s or 60s? Like this is a movie that's aimed at old white guys, and most old white guy actioners (Bond, Indy, Mission: Impossible) all opened around here, and there's nothing in this that would make me think it would gain substantially more than that, especially when there's no Russell Crowe. Like I know, I know, budget and all, but Gladiator doing 50M+ seems pretty par for the course.

 

6 hours ago, M37 said:

Just for the record…

 

  Reveal hidden contents

because I’m obviously on 🔥 this year!

I remain bearish on Gladiator II, as it has always felt to me more like Alien Romulus (or a somewhat bigger Furiosa) than like a Kingdom POTA or even Twisters terms of appeal to casuals beyond the franchise brand 

 

In the end, just don’t think a swords & sandals action/epic will surpass the “worth paying for” hurdle for enough people, particularly when it’s a sequel almost in name only. And Scott isn’t in the Cameron/Nolan level of drawing an audience on his own

Though the absence of other adult options and/or split audience riding whatever coattails Wicked has can probably push it higher 

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry but wasn't Twisters tracking for roughly 50-60M before exploding to 80M. Where's this certainty coming from with Gladiator

[Cmasterclay]

Just one man's admittedly often wrong opinion, but Gladiator def doesn't feel like Romulus (starless fifth sequel) or Furiosa (niche property prequel) to me tbh. First one was iconic with a long wait for a single sequel like Beetlejuice, and this one is going to have great reviews, possible award noms, and tons of star power. Also, it's a perfect storm of counterprogramming with Wicked and Moana. If Gladiator is hurt by anything it's the lack of big white guy audience left for movies to tap in to more than once a year with a Top Gun or Oppenheimer or Deadpool. Even then, I think Denzel expands the audience to younger and more diverse people. I always pegged it for somewhere between 60-75, John Wick 4 numbers with maybe a lower opening and tiny bit higher total. 50m would be disappointing I'm gonna be honest.

[WorkingonaName]

G2 will make over $500M INT trust.

[Ryan C]

On 10/21/2024 at 8:05 PM, Ryan C said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-3

 

Thursday: 3,725 Seats Sold (33.5% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 7:50 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I'm more than aware of the projections for this dropping considerably below where they were last week, but I think we need to wait until Thursday before we make any final judgements on where this is heading. 

 

As far as my market is concerned, I'm not seeing any big red flags yet. I still believe this will be walk-up heavy and that'll get this within the $60M-$70M range. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I still remember when Sony projected a $40M opening for Venom: Let There Be Carnage and that exploded to a $90M opening. 

 

This may not be 2021 anymore, but I can't rule out the possibility of this doing a lot better in the final days of its pre-sales or even just during the weekend. 

 

As always, we'll see how this plays out. I sincerely hope this doesn't collapse. 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-2

 

Thursday: 4,208 Seats Sold (12.9% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 9:25PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I hate to say it, but I'm not starting to believe the weaker projections for this. This can still have a great final day, but this increase from yesterday (despite more showtimes being added) is pretty underwhelming. Just for a frame of reference, Joker: Folie à Deux had a better percentage increase from its final Monday to Thursday pre-sale window (17.1% to 12.9%). 

 

This will still have a better opening weekend because I can guarantee that buzz/word-of-mouth won't be disastrous, but it's gonna have to work real hard these next two days to convince me that this'll hit at least $60M. 

 

So the discourse surrounding this film and it's numbers don't end up being insufferable to deal with, I sincerely hope all of the walk-up business and presumed positive early reactions can boost it's financial prospects. 

[Mulder]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Just one man's admittedly often wrong opinion, but Gladiator def doesn't feel like Romulus (starless fifth sequel) or Furiosa (niche property prequel) to me tbh. First one was iconic with a long wait for a single sequel like Beetlejuice, and this one is going to have great reviews, possible award noms, and tons of star power. Also, it's a perfect storm of counterprogramming with Wicked and Moana. If Gladiator is hurt by anything it's the lack of big white guy audience left for movies to tap in to more than once a year with a Top Gun or Oppenheimer or Deadpool. Even then, I think Denzel expands the audience to younger and more diverse people. I always pegged it for somewhere between 60-75, John Wick 4 numbers with maybe a lower opening and tiny bit higher total. 50m would be disappointing I'm gonna be honest.

Romulus definitely satisfied Disney money wise since they put Predator Bad Lands into theaters.

[emoviefan]

45 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Just one man's admittedly often wrong opinion, but Gladiator def doesn't feel like Romulus (starless fifth sequel) or Furiosa (niche property prequel) to me tbh. First one was iconic with a long wait for a single sequel like Beetlejuice, and this one is going to have great reviews, possible award noms, and tons of star power. Also, it's a perfect storm of counterprogramming with Wicked and Moana. If Gladiator is hurt by anything it's the lack of big white guy audience left for movies to tap in to more than once a year with a Top Gun or Oppenheimer or Deadpool. Even then, I think Denzel expands the audience to younger and more diverse people. I always pegged it for somewhere between 60-75, John Wick 4 numbers with maybe a lower opening and tiny bit higher total. 50m would be disappointing I'm gonna be honest.

Yes 50 m would be disappointing but even if it only does that number as long as WOM is good to great it will have the entire holiday movie period to stretch it''s legs with no real competition for it's core audience. A IM of at least 4 would be very doable and worse case it could be the inverse of Twisters. Great OS numbers offsetting not great DOM numbers 

[Pinacolada]

My only real worry about Gladiator II is the lack of PLFs it's gonna have. It's definitely gonna be 3rd priority to Moana and Wicked

 

Opening weekend it seems it has 100% of IMAX which is good. And one nightly Dolby showing. 2nd weekend I imagine it's gonna MAYBE have like 1 IMAX showing, no Dolby.

 

As long as the demand is there tho, it should still have good legs. But I think it's gonna be the runt of the litter against Wicked and Moana, even though it's different audiences

[filmlover]

Don't know if anyone else is tracking it but the sales for the early shows on 11/10 for Red One seem solid this far out near me. Wonder if it might benefit from being by far the most high-profile holiday themed movie this year, Amazon is certainly pushing it.

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Venom 3:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 23 Tickets

Theater 2: 24 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $3.20M

BB: $5.62M

BB:RoD: $8.91M

GB:FE: $4.91M

FN@F: $2.33M

FX: $4.75M

Black Adam: $4.83M

 

Oh boy, this is gonna be a fun week to track. Going with $5M.

Venom 3:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 30 Tickets
Theater 2: 30 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $2.88M
BB: $6.41M
BB:RoD: $8.60M
GB:FE: $5.22M
FN@F: $2.72M
FX: $4.79M
Black Adam: $4.51M

 

Some ups and downs. Still hovering around $5M+

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 24 Tickets
Theater 2: 27 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $4.17M
BB: $9.24M
BB:RoD: $8.66M
GB:FE: $6.77M
FN@F: $2.33M
FX: $7.69M
Black Adam: $6.01M

 

Pretty fucking bad, but suspiciously low. Going for $6M-$9M for now.

[crazymoviekid]

12 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Conclave: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 4 Tickets
Theater 2: 10 Tickets

 

Megalopolis: $.33M
Bikeriders: $1.56M
Challengers: $1.23M
Drive Away Dolls: $.79M
KotFM: $1.17M

 

No idea just yet. I'll be ballsy and say $1M.

Conclave: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets
Theater 2: 16 Tickets

 

Megalopolis: $.47M
Bikeriders: $1.91M
Challengers: $1.28M
Drive Away Dolls: $.95M
KotFM: $1.24M

 

Some comps going up. Still strong between $1M-$1.25M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 7 Tickets

Theater 2: 16 Tickets

 

Megalopolis: $1.56M

Bikeriders: $5.86M

Challengers: $2.18M

Drive Away Dolls: $4.31M

KotFM: $2.44M

 

A little wide, but I'd say $1.5M-$2.5M for now

[Flip]

On 10/21/2024 at 10:30 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 (T-3) 

 

25 showtimes/380 tix sold (+54)

 

1.15x AQP Day One (T-3) [7.82m]
.84x Beetlejuice 2 (T-3) [8.23m]
1.43x Alien Romulus (T-3) [9.30m]

1.76x Bad Boys 4 (T-3) [10.34m]

 

Underperformed my target, but considering the fact that it held steady with every comp but BB4, it was an ok day. However, the fact that it couldn’t hold with BB4 means the chances of a late explosion are low since today would’ve been the day to get that started; instead it’s chugging along with the other genre comps. Tomorrow I’m expecting 85 tickets sold at the least, but I won’t be impressed by a number below 3 digits. 

Venom 3 (T-2) 

 

29 showtimes/461 tix sold (+81)

 

1.09x AQP Day One (T-2) [7.41m]
.84x Beetlejuice 2 (T-2) [8.23m]

1.38x Bad Boys 4 (T-2) [8.11m]
 

bad day. Tomorrow I want to see at least 100 tickets sold if $7m is to be over a 50% chance

[Flip]

On 10/21/2024 at 10:36 PM, Flip said:

Venom 3 Friday (T-4) 

 

31 showtimes/301 tix sold (+30)

 

Missed Beetlejuice 2 (T-4) [???]

Missed Alien Romulus (T-4) [???]

.40x Inside Out 2 (T-4) [20.22m]

 

No change in pace

Venom 3 Friday (T-3) 

 

31 showtimes/371 tix sold (+71)

 

.56x Beetlejuice 2 (T-3) [16.14m]

Missed Alien Romulus (T-3) [???]

.39x Inside Out 2 (T-3) [19.71m]
 

Nothing of note going on

[Flip]

On 10/21/2024 at 9:31 PM, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-31) 

 

14 showtimes/110 tix sold (+7)

Missed AQP Day One (T-31) [???]

Missed Twisters (T-31) [???]

1.18x Beetlejuice 2 (T-31) [11.56m]

 

Unusually strong day

Gladiator 2 (T-30) 

 

14 showtimes/151 tix sold (+41!)
 

Missed AQP Day One (T-30) [???]

3.28x Twisters (T-30) [24.6m]

1.53x Beetlejuice 2 (T-30) [14.99m]

 

Um, not really sure what happened today. Hopefully other trackers can see if Gladiator 2 is growing a lot in their locations or (more likely) this is something location specific to NYC/NJ. 

[Flip]

On 10/21/2024 at 9:28 PM, Flip said:

Wicked 2 (T-31) 4 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/638 tix sold (+25)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-31) [???]
5.8x Gladiator 2 (T-31) [???]

 

pace has slowed down a lot, the weekend was weaker than I would’ve expected. Over the last 4 days it actually sold less tickets than Gladiator, so that’s an interesting trend to follow.

Wicked 2 (T-30) 

 

15 showtimes/652 tix sold (+14)

 

.54x Deadpool 3 (T-30) [20.79m]
4.32x Gladiator 2 (T-30) [???]
 

today was a strong day for Wicked as well, maybe there was a common factor that helped the Glicked duo but I can’t think of what it could be.