The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

Will have a closer look at it in a few hours but from what I saw the presales for The Exorcist: Believer are good. Already (way) more than 100 tickets sold in my 7 theaters (for Thursday, October 5). And it get surprisingly many shows.

[vale9001]

I don't think the eras tour will have any "space problem".

If the pre sales suggest there Is the request for new showings they will add them.

 

September and october until the 13 don't have any blockbuster and all the "big" releases are horrors (saw X and the exorcist). So if the request Is there the showings will be there. Whatever It's gonna make will be imo "the best of Its possibilities".

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/5/2023 at 9:08 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-2	Jax	5	13	1	42	1,351	3.11%
		Phx	6	16	12	45	1,490	3.02%
		Ral	7	17	15	41	1,877	2.18%
	Total		18	46	28	128	4,718	2.71%
Nun II	T-2	Jax	6	39	14	89	5,259	1.69%
		Phx	5	19	19	135	3,256	4.15%
		Ral	8	36	34	93	5,093	1.83%
	Total		19	94	67	317	13,608	2.33%

 

Greek Wedding T-2 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .476x (476k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .257x (326k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .587x (646k)

 - Strays (Total) - .707x (778k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.422x (711k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .487x (355k)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - missed

 - Marry Me - 1.094x (574k)

 - West Side Story - .883x (706k)

 

Size adjusted average - 669k

 

Thinking in the 700k range still

 

The Nun II T-2 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .779x (3.89m)

 - Scream VI - .243x (1.38m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .708x (2.12m)

 - Candyman - 1.554x (2.95m)

 - Nope - .307x (1.97m)

 - Boogeyman (Total) - 2.217x (2.44m)

 - Halloween Kills - .285x (1.38m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 

Average adjusted comps - 2.5m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding 3	T-1	Jax	5	15	16	58	1,425	4.07%
		Phx	6	19	4	49	1,759	2.79%
		Ral	7	17	8	49	1,877	2.61%
	Total		18	51	28	156	5,061	3.08%
Nun II	T-1	Jax	6	48	36	125	6,331	1.97%
		Phx	5	29	33	168	4,404	3.81%
		Ral	8	40	21	114	5,323	2.14%
	Total		19	117	90	407	16,058	2.53%

 

*Switching to true previews comps

 

Greek Wedding T-1 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .471x (471k)

 - 80 for Brady (Thu) - .687x (515k)

 - Strays (Thu) - 1.02x (841k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.472x (735k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .502x (366k)

 - Marry Me - 1.106x (581k)

 - West Side Story - .843x (675k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 1.076x (646k)

 - Man Called Otto - 1.076x (683k)

 

Size adjusted average - 653k

 

Greek Wedding pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Greek Wedding 3	67.74%	22.58%	25.00%	21.88%
Magic Mike 3	79.89%	27.72%	36.84%	23.05%
80 for Brady	60.99%	31.91%	26.04%	25.41%
Strays			18.46%	30.77%
Easter Sunday	85.96%	43.86%	0.00%	17.78%
I Wanna Dance	77.71%	20.00%	23.57%	18.25%
Marry Me				20.51%
West Side Story				27.59%
Dear Evan Hansen	98.63%			33.03%
Otto	145.76%	40.68%		43.56%

 

In line with most of the comps for yesterday.  Gonna drop my prediction a little to 650k

 

The Nun II T-1 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .743x (3.71m)

 - Scream VI - .27x (1.54m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .949x (2.47m)

 - Candyman - 1.384x (2.63m)

 - Nope - .298x (1.91m)

 - Boogeyman (Thu) - 3.634x (3.63m)

 - Halloween Kills - .288x (1.4m)

 - Halloween Ends - .382x (2.06m)

 

Average adjusted comps - 2.68m

 

Nun pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Nun II	91.08%	91.08%		28.39%
Insidious 5	134.19%	41.45%	38.69%	34.64%
Scream VI	43.43%	20.38%	12.56%	15.40%
Black Phone			15.25%	34.06%
Candyman	131.50%			44.12%
Nope	91.58%	26.23%	19.39%	32.36%
Boogeyman				0.90%
Halloween Kills	97.07%	39.75%		26.95%
Halloween Ends			22.00%

 

This is kinda all over the place.  Going to put a pin down around 2.5m but expecting it to change tomorrow.

[katnisscinnaplex]

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Exorcist 6	T-30	Jax	5	34	2	3	6,046	0.05%
		Phx	4	18	8	9	3,777	0.24%
		Ral	5	21	1	3	3,289	0.09%
	Total		14	73	11	15	13,112	0.11%

 

Exorcist T-30 comps

 - Nope - .089x (571k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/5/2023 at 9:19 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-38	Jax	6	64	63	4,018	10,330	38.90%
		Phx	6	69	66	7,348	11,798	62.28%
		Ral	8	65	85	4,687	8,417	55.68%
	Total		20	198	214	16,053	30,545	52.56%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .463x (23.14m)

 - Dr Strange - .696x (25.04m)

 - BP2 - .908x (25.42m)

 - Thor 4 - .98x (28.43m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.667x (29.17m)

 - Barbie - 1.407x (29.82m)

 

Pretty much sold another ticket per show today.  Lost a couple late shows with no sales and added a couple in other theaters to net zero change.  Expecting this to be the norm going forward unless a promo/something else causes a jump.  I've been saying that capacity will keep this from reaching some of the predictions out there.  Here's the final show count for previews for the comps above.

 

NWH: 475

Dr. Strange - 519

BP2 - 450

Thor 4 - 414

Ant-Man 3 - 358

Barbie - 285

 

While there is certainly room for more shows to be added, most of these started at 3 or 4pm and had much more room to add.  I don't think we'll get even close to the CBM show counts.  ATP will help counteract that some, but it'll be tough to fill all of the handicap and single seats that are still available out there for Friday.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-37	Jax	6	66	19	4,037	10,609	38.05%
		Phx	6	72	57	7,405	11,976	61.83%
		Ral	8	65	30	4,717	8,417	56.04%
	Total		20	203	106	16,159	31,002	52.12%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .466x (23.3m)

 - Dr Strange - .7x (25.21m)

 - BP2 - .914x (25.59m)

 - Thor 4 - .987x (28.62m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.678x (29.36m)

 - Barbie - 1.416x (30.02m)

[M37]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

I don't think the eras tour will have any "space problem".

If the pre sales suggest there Is the request for new showings they will add them.

 

September and october until the 13 don't have any blockbuster and all the "big" releases are horrors (saw X and the exorcist). So if the request Is there the showings will be there. Whatever It's gonna make will be imo "the best of Its possibilities".

The “problem” is that they kneecapped themselves by not starting until 6pm

 

Can more shows be added? Absolutely 

Will they? Probably 

But trust me from experience: putting shows less than 20 minutes apart is a major headache, and with the default schedule being 6/630/7/730, there’s going to be a limit to how many prime shows will be added. It’s less about resources being a limiting factor, more about operational efficiency 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

I don't think the eras tour will have any "space problem".

If the pre sales suggest there Is the request for new showings they will add them.

 

September and october until the 13 don't have any blockbuster and all the "big" releases are horrors (saw X and the exorcist). So if the request Is there the showings will be there. Whatever It's gonna make will be imo "the best of Its possibilities".

 

I agree with this, but one of the strangest dynamics is going to be how empty theatres will be on the Monday to Wednesday. 

 

You'll have 30-40% screens dedicated to an event film that doesn't play during the week. You'll either use those screens to double up the more recent releases, even though one screen is probably adequate. Or, you're keeping early September holdovers around for the sake of it. 

 

I expect that we'll see a lot of empty showings around that time.

[jeffthehat]

Started tracking some small regional theaters near me to see if capacity in non-MTCs can catch up to MTC-1 for Eras. 

 

T-39 (5 theaters)

 

780/3652 (21.35% sold)

 

T-38 

 

819/3652 (22.42% sold) +39 (+5%)

 

T-37 

 

901/3652 (24.67% sold) +82 (+10%)

 

Not a lot of data, but great growth in the first couple of days. Suggests there's a lot of demand left out there. Might try to add some theaters today. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by jeffthehat

[keysersoze123]

Just MTC1 over 3 day is just under 25m (without adjusting for any child/senior tickets). I like the formula used by @Legion Again. I would adjust 5% from this for now. I expect more family tickets sold closer to release. MTC2 is around 9-10m (extrapolated from data I have). MTC3 is even lower. I am impressed by MTC4 as its performing on par with MTC1 in terms of crazy demand as it does not have to compete with MTC1 in Canada. Off the smaller MiniTC few are doing great, couple which started presales almost day and half after overall presales start(MiniTC2 from Charlie) seems good but not spectacular. But this movie has longer sales cycle than most and so it has time to catch up. 

 

I expect overall OW presales to be in 45-50m range. While Friday is capacity constrained at MTC1 and couple of other TC, it has huge runway for sat/sun. I also expect shows to be continuously added for Friday as well. On 6PM being a factor, dont forget Endgame previews also started at 6PM and this movie has way higher ATP advantage. So it can still hit 50m on friday selling way lower tickets starting at 6PM. Sat/Sun has single day record potential. Question is if the swifties have the urge to see it in theaters beyond the hardcore fans who have already booked the tickets. Only time will tell.

[Issac Newton]

 

We are getting IMAX! for Miyazaki Film!

[Relevation]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

At the risk of starting a multi-page argument, if folks want to give me a ballpark/estimated/good-enough-for-governmenttracking-work/spitball estimate for the ATP of the Taylor Swift concert film I can use that against the official current NATO ATPs for the last couple of years and give a slightly better sense where current comps out of Sacramento are pointing to.

 

What I am not looking for: A hyper-exact bullseye figure.

What I am looking for: Something better than nothing.

 

Honestly, even within 5% to 10% of what the ATP ends up being is probs good enough.  At least for now.

 

If I get a consensus that feel right (to me at least), likely to use it in some form in my coming charts.

 

(this is a one-time ask, for this event film only.  In all other cases, I'll just use my own historical comps + my own sense of judgement)

From the peak capacity math I ran earlier assuming every show is sold out, the distribution of PLF and standard shows would put my guess at around $21.27 ATP.

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

It Lives Inside T-16: 20.05% Awareness

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-23: 36.5% Awareness

Dumb Money T-30: 16.93% Awareness

The Book of Clarence T-128: 14.97% Awareness

Elio T-177: 21.67% Awareness

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-2: 47.7% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

 

The Nun II T-4: 54.39% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 90% chance of 20M, 70% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M, 30% chance of 50M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

Freelance T-30: 26.14% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-37: 35.16% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

 

The Marvels T-65: 49.25% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 73% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 70M, 27% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 75% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 25% chance of 90M

[el sid]

The Nun II counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 237 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 92 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 19 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 39 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 137 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 299 (13 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 833.

Up very solid 81.5% since Monday.
Comps (all films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): M3gan (30.4M OW) had 506 sold tickets,
Smile (22.6M) had 399,
Prey for the Devil (7.2M) had 207,
Old (16.9M) had 262,
HK (49.4M) had 1.254
Scream VI (44.4M) had 1.693,
Meg 2 (30M) had 486,
The Pope's Exorcist (9M) had 142

and Insidious 4 (29.3M) had 598 sold tickets.

So the jump till today was pretty good but not fantastic. I agree that The Nun II will very probably not reach the OW result of its predecessor. But I still say 40M OW could very well happen with e.g. walk-ups similar to Insidious 4.

[el sid]

The Exorcist: Believer had today after a bit less than 24 hours on sale 171 sold tickets for Thursday, October 5 (with showtimes in all 7 theaters).
Comps (all three films counted after ca. 1 day on sale): M3gan had 57 sold tickets,
Beast had 53

and The Black Phone had 95 sold tickets.
Evil Dead Rise had with 6 days left 421 sold tickets.
Insidious 4 had with 8 days left 153 sold tickets.
Nope had with 10 days left 1.355 sold tickets. But that movie had great presales, way better than the actual weekend result (44.4M) and would have made even films like e.g. Insidious 4 and M3gan look like flops.
The Boogeyman had with 10 days left 39 sold tickets.
Halloween Ends had with 10 days left 511 sold tickets.
And Prey for the Devil had on Monday of the release week 115 sold tickets.

Nice start!

[vale9001]

If can be helpful for someone 

 

 

[Relevation]

@across the Jat verse How much do you think Jawan will open to domestically this weekend?

[Hilts]

Weekend Box Office Forecast: THE NUN II and MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3 Set to Continue September’s Slate of Sequels - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 10	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$31,400,000	$31,400,000	~3,600	NEW
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$12,800,000	$63,100,000	~3,965	-63%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	Focus Features	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	3,645	NEW
Barbie	Warner Bros. Pictures	$6,100,000	$620,600,000	~3,300	-40%
Blue Beetle	Warner Bros. Pictures	$4,100,000	$63,900,000	~2,800	-42%
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	$3,400,000	$315,400,000	~2,200	-41%
Gran Turismo	Sony Pictures	$3,300,000	$35,700,000	~2,600	-50%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	Paramount Pictures	$3,000,000	$111,800,000	~2,700	-35%
Meg 2: The Trench	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,600,000	$81,200,000	~1,600	-43%
Bottoms	Orion Pictures	$1,300,000	$6,400,000	~1,200	-57%
Jawan	Yash Raj Films USA, Inc.	n/a	n/a	~800	NEW

[Hilts]

13 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

These were counted at my normal time I just didn't have time to post earlier. Busy night setting up Exorcist and Haunting in Venice too (it is just me or is there a LOT of horror coming up).

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-6	19	38	0	6	56	4,167	1.34%
T-5	19	38	0	4	60	4,167	1.44%
T-4	19	38	0	4	64	4,167	1.54%
T-3	20	41	0	9	73	4,364	1.67%
T-2	21	45	0	12	85	4,559	1.86%
Comps
Strays					0.452x	=	$0.50m
Joy Ride					0.450x	=	$0.49m
Asteroid City					0.515x	=	$0.57m
No Hard Feelings					0.452x	=	$0.97m

 

Comp average = $630k

 

As it keeps falling, unless this picks up thinking ~$500k. Even with very good IM doubtful it reaches $10m OW.

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-6	23	84	0	30	91	16,293	0.56%
T-5	23	84	0	10	101	16,293	0.62%
T-4	23	84	0	5	106	16,293	0.65%
T-3	23	84	0	42	148	16,293	0.91%
T-2	23	87	0	65	213	16,822	1.27%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.772x	=	$3.86m
Talk To Me					2.366x	=	$2.95m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.958x	=	$2.22m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.607x	=	$1.94m

 

Comp average = $2.75m

 

Seeing similar range to Abracadabra. If it follows Insidious late surge I could see $3.5m maybe. Tricky to get to $40m OW now but let's see.

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-5	19	38	0	4	60	4,167	1.44%
T-4	19	38	0	4	64	4,167	1.54%
T-3	20	41	0	9	73	4,364	1.67%
T-2	21	45	0	12	85	4,559	1.86%
T-1	22	51	0	23	108	5,010	2.16%
Comps
Strays					0.794x	=	$0.66m
Joy Ride					0.675x	=	$0.74m
Asteroid City					0.519x	=	$0.57m
No Hard Feelings					0.445x	=	$0.96m

 

Removed the EA on these. Comp average = $730k. See-sawing between $550k-$750k.

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-5	23	84	0	10	101	16,293	0.62%
T-4	23	84	0	5	106	16,293	0.65%
T-3	23	84	0	42	148	16,293	0.91%
T-2	23	87	0	65	213	16,822	1.27%
T-1	24	100	0	105	318	17,803	1.79%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.824x	=	$4.12m
Talk To Me					2.504x	=	$3.12m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					3.118x	=	$2.34m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.679x	=	$2.17m

 

Comp average = $2.94m. All increases. On pace to clear $3m with good jump tomorrow.

[Hilts]

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-11	1	1	0	0	10	563	1.78%
T-10	1	1	0	2	12	563	2.13%
T-9	1	1	0	0	12	563	2.13%
T-8	1	1	0	2	14	563	2.49%
T-7	1	1	0	0	14	563	2.49%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	19	50	0	38	38	9,987	0.38%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.487x	=	$2.44m
No Hard Feelings					1.000x	=	$2.15m
Talk To Me					1.810x	=	$2.25m
The Meg 2: The Trench					1.027x	=	$3.29m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.000x	=	$1.50m
Gran Turismo					1.625x	=	$2.28m
The Equalizer 3					0.377x	=	$1.43m

 

Wasn't sure what to comp so just threw everything at it. Let's give it a couple of days but aiming to beat Death on the Nile with this start.

 

[Hilts]

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-29	19	74	0	22	22	15,892	0.14%

 

Day 1 Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.524x	=	$2.62m
Haunted Mansion					0.367x	=	$1.14m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.595x	=	$1.90m
The Nun II					0.361x
A Haunting In Venice					0.579x

 

Not much going on this far out so Day 1 comps here.