The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

FYI i even looked at saturday numbers from Freddy earlier today and that shows demand is sustained by thu/fri. Saturday has sold 11825 tickets which well below Friday. Oppenheimer had insane Saturday(and even Sunday or 2nd weekend) due to imax/70mm selling out for multiple weeks. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-58 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	10282	10728	446	4.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

75

 

0.08508x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

0.09690x the amount of tickets TET sold on D2 [774 vs 75]

 

Regal:     163/4145  [3.93% sold]

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-57 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	10244	10721	477	4.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

31

 

0.08749x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

0.08732x the amount of tickets TET sold on D3 [355 vs 31]

 

Regal:     173/4145  [4.17% sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	152	11378	19815	8437	42.58%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	174
Total Seats Sold Today	78

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	48.45		416	17415		0/308	20137/37552	46.38%		28183	29.94%		24.22m	35.12m
MoM	74.73		265	11290		0/353	31386/42676	26.46%		21117	39.95%		26.90m	39.01m
Thor 4	114.60		178	7362		0/228	24235/31597	23.30%		16962	49.74%		33.23m	48.19m
BP2	107.93		201	7817		2/295	29214/37031	21.11%		16800	50.22%		30.22m	43.82m
AM3	158.62		142	5319		0/238	27475/32794	16.22%		10475	80.54%		27.76m	40.25m
GOTG3	209.04		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	78.48%		36.58m	53.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-10 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	182.11		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	71.76%
JWD	264.81		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	76.94%
Ava 2	242.93		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	93.89%
AtSV	351.40		154	2401		0/129	18385/20786	11.55%		9744	86.59%
Barbie	288.15		426	2928		0/99	9785/12713	23.03%		12077	69.86%
Oppy	563.22		103	1498		0/57	7336/8834	16.96%		4621	182.58%
Barben	190.62		529	4426		0/156	17121/21547	20.54%		16698	50.53%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2374/6150  [38.60% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	152	11317	19815	8498	42.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

61

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	47.64		424	17839		0/311	20218/38057	46.87%		28183	30.15%		23.82m	34.54m
MoM	72.68		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	40.24%		26.16m	37.94m
Thor 4	111.08		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	50.10%		32.21m	46.71m
BP2	104.69		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	50.58%		29.31m	42.51m
AM3	152.40		257	5576		0/238	27218/32794	17.00%		10475	81.13%		26.67m	38.67m
GOTG3	200.47		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	79.05%		35.08m	50.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-9 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	177.00		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	72.28%
JWD	251.42		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	77.49%
Ava 2	232.12		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	94.57%
AtSV	327.73		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	87.21%
Barbie	263.10		302	3230		0/127	12791/16071	20.10%		12077	70.37%
Oppy	520.71		134	1632		0/65	7968/9600	17.00%		4621	183.90%
Barben	174.78		436	4862		0/192	20759/25671	18.94%		16698	50.89%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2383/6150  [38.75% sold]

 

====

 

The adage about catching a falling knife comes to mind for some reason...

[Porthos]

On 10/4/2023 at 1:09 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	9279	10322	1043	10.10%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	642
Total Seats Sold Today	200

 

Day 3:

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	189.64		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	23.21%		14.22m
Wick4	143.86		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	19.14%		12.80m
AtSV	76.75		87	1359		0/123	18537/19896	6.83%		9744	10.70%		13.32m
GOTG3	44.36		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	9.70%		7.76m
Flash	125.81		71	829		0/174	23899/24728	3.35%		5327	19.58%		12.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     295/3078  [9.58% sold]
Matinee:    115/926  [12.42% | 11.03% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Fucking A'!!!! 

 

...

 

I'm curious, @Shawn...  Have you ever doubled the OW LRF for a film in one update when it was already at least at 30m?

 

Asking for a friend.

 

====

 

Okay, okay, 80 of the 200 seats sold tonight were PLFs, with the vaaaaaaaaaaast majority of them at those newly added Cinemark showings (another Cinemark joined the party tonight, BTW).

 

Still, even if I discount that, just a tremendous Day 3.  Hell, if I don't discount it, it's an amazing Day 3.  It outsold GOTG3's Day 3 for criminy sakes!!!  Okay okay, longer pre-sale window for GOTG3 + more burnt off demand + newly added PLF screens for FNAF.  Still a fanfuckingtastic day.

 

Where is it going from here?  Hell if I know.  But it'll be fun to find out.

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	11078	12239	1161	9.49%

 

Total Showings Added Today	18
Total Seats Added Today	1917
Total Seats Sold Today	118

 

Day 4:

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	192.54		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	25.83%		14.44m
Wick4	150.39		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	21.31%		13.38m
AtSV	79.52		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	11.92%		13.80m
GOTG3	47.14		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	10.80%		8.25m
Flash	125.51		96	925		0/178	24217/25142	3.68%		5327	21.79%		12.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     325/3078  [10.56% sold]
Matinee:    128/926  [13.82% | 11.02% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Switching to T-x comps tomorrow.

 

****MAJOR WORD OF WARNING FOR NEWBIES/LURKERS***

 

EVERY SINGLE COMP, EXCEPT THE GOTG3 ONE, ***WILL*** GO UP DUE TO DISPARITIES IN PRE-SALE WINDOW LENGTHS.  KEEP THAT IN MIND WHEN SEEING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WORTH OF CHARTS UNTIL THINGS STABILIZE!

 

Now that I have the ALL CAPS out of the way...

 

FNAF started at     T-25

---

BA        started at   T-21

Wick 4 started at   T-22

GOTG3 started at  T-31

AtSV started at      T-24

Flash started at     T-23

 

So the change will be somewhat marginal for Across the Spider-Verse and a little bit more for The Flash.  Will be decently significant for John Wick 4 and very significant (in opposite directions) for Black Adam and GOTG3.  Might have to drop BA and GOTG3 for a few days until things stabilize.   Just have to see how it goes.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-57 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	10244	10721	477	4.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

31

 

0.08749x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

0.08732x the amount of tickets TET sold on D3 [355 vs 31]

 

Regal:     173/4145  [4.17% sold]

I'm confused here. How can TET after one day be less than TET day 3. That's like saying D3 was better than D1. What am I missing?

[Porthos]

44 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'm confused here. How can TET after one day be less than TET day 3. That's like saying D3 was better than D1. What am I missing?

 

The first comp is Ren *D3* total sales vs TET *D1* total sales

The second comp is Ren D3 day of sales vs TET D3 day of sales

 

That is, one is measuring total against the first day of TET's sales ONLY and the other current daily pace.

 

I personally think a total comp versus TET is worth next to nothing but I think it'll be worth slightly less nothing by the time Renaissance catches up to TET at T-43, as that will have 16 days more pre-sales.  Thus I am constantly comping against TET's day 1 until then.

 

I am providing a daily pace comparison separately for a short while to see how they are mimicking each other and if Ren continues to be around the same percentage behind before they both enter the steep portion of the U-curve.

 

That's why the descriptions for each are different.  Might try to reword it to make it more clear though.  Not that I'll be keeping up the daily pace comparisons much longer anyways...

Edited October 5, 2023 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

The first comp is Ren *D3* total sales vs TET *D1* total sales

The second comp is Ren D3 day of sales vs TET D3 day of sales

 

That is, one is measuring total against the first day of TET's sales ONLY and the other current daily pace.

 

I personally think a total comp versus TET is worth next to nothing but I think it'll be worth slightly less nothing by the time Renaissance catches up to TET at T-43, as that will have 16 days more pre-sales.  Thus I am constantly comping against TET's day 1 until then.

 

I am providing a daily pace comparison separately for a short while to see how they are mimicking each other and if Ren continues to be around the same percentage behind on before they both enter the steep portion of the U-curve.

 

That's why the descriptions for each are different.  Might try to reword it to make it more clear though.  Not that I'll be keeping up the daily pace comparisons much longer anyways...

Ahhh coolio. Thanks.

[vafrow]

Ticket sale update from Cineplex.

 

Still nothing available up here for FNAF. It's not the first time there's a lag between sale in the US and Canada, but this feels on the lengthier side, especially for something tracking so well.

 

We're heading into Canadian Thanksgiving weekend as well, so you'd think you'd get this out before that point. 

 

For TET, there's still no update with regards to the matinee shows since they were removed. Only the two theatres that added them back, but that honestly looks like it was accidental.

 

They were removed at T-35, and I'm most amazed how that hasn't created any sort of stir or anxiety among ticket holders.

 

Full showtimes for the Friday get confirmed Tuesday evening before, so, we'll know at that point whether they're going through with the full matinee showings or not. 

 

I'm leaning towards them being available, because I can't imagine cancelling 6000 tickets with a few days notice. 

[el sid]

The Exorcist II, counted yesterday for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 288 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 133 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (9 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 155 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 504 (17 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.115.

Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): The Nun II (9.9M true Friday) had 833 sold tickets = 13.3M true Friday for The Exorcist II.
Halloween Kills (17.95M) had 1.254 sold tickets = 16M.
Insidious: The Red Door (10.3M) had 598 sold tickets = 19.2M.
M3gan (2.75M) had 506 sold tickets = 19.7M.
Smile (2M) had 399 sold tickets = 17.4M.
And Saw X (6M) had 490 sold tickets = 13.7M.

Last week I was disappointed when I saw that Saw X was way behind The Nun II. But The Exorcist's Friday numbers are good so far. I guess it will lose a bit in the comps today because with already over 1k tickets big jumps aren't easy.
Next report in a few hours.

[Giorno]

the marvels already went on sale

[Youngstar]

13 minutes ago, Giorno said:

the marvels already went on sale

Showtimes are popping up, but nothing is on sale yet as far as I can tell.

[Giorno]

8 minutes ago, Youngstar said:

Showtimes are popping up, but nothing is on sale yet as far as I can tell.

yeah you can click on seats but errors show up when you try and purchase, my mistake

Edited October 5, 2023 by Giorno

[TwoMisfits]

44 minutes ago, Giorno said:

the marvels already went on sale

 

Interestingly, both of my Cinemarks have not yet even set the movie.  Hmmm.

 

Cinemark has been the chain that goes Disney-lite recently, so I'm very interested to see how they ultimately set this movie.

[keysersoze123]

 

[jeffthehat]

On 10/4/2023 at 8:52 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-9

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 107 (+1)

Seats sold - 6669

Total seats - 17809

% sold - 37.4%

New sales - 133 (+2%)

3-day average of new sales - 116.3 tickets/day

 

Ramping up. 

 

Comp at local Malco

 

Barbie T-2 hours (1.32x) - $29.4m / $42.7m ATP adjusted (+45%)

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-8

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 125 (+18)

Seats sold - 6874

Total seats - 20734

% sold - 33.2%

New sales - 205 (+3.1%)

 

Buncha new shows. I think they were added to Fandango between Mon-Wed (I check manually). But they also could've been selling tickets on their own websites for awhile. They account for like 90 of the new sales. 

 

[M37]

13 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

so I am going to join @Shawn's side on this one, sorry @M37.

 

Comps for Exorcist vs Nun II from the 3 active tracks:

 

(1.381x) of Nun II~$4.28M THUR Previews

1.29x The Nun II: $3.98 Million

The Nun II

1.082x

=

$3.35m

 

Even if those comps cannot keep pace with Nun's final sales day, there's a fair amount of room to fall back and still keep $3M+ in play

 

Also:

13 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	23.81
3-Day:	73.33

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.29x The Nun II: $3.98 Million (23%, 128%)

So after playing catch-up through the shorter sales period for Nun II, for your sample, growth rate has mostly aligned .... though fell way behind in OK sample. The variability in smaller numbers means its difficult to really gauge, and generally I prefer to look at the largest volume sample, usually MTC1, but in this case its Orlando ... where Exorcist only needs to sell 58 more tickets to match Nun II's T-0 total. And El Sid's update above shows the potential for a $10M+ true Friday, ahead of Nun II's $9.9M

 

Oh, and definitely some error bars on this data, but this too:

Spoiler

From Quorum

 

Interest

 

 

Awareness

 

All in all, I still see a very reasonable path to $3M/$30M+, though my only hesitation is that the reviews are trash, which may be enough to outweigh the goodwill of the Blumhouse brand and limit walk-ups both for Thursday and the weekend as WOM spreads. I think there's some gun-shyness with how Saw X finished last week, and while that is certainly a possibility, the long vs short sales period is IMO making that comp seem more likely than it is in reality

[M37]

Some quick thoughts on FNAF* ...

 

As someone who does tend to bang the drum on capacity, I'm not at all concerned about show & seat volume in the long run. A little surprising that the industry hasn't reacted to the high early demand and added more shows, perhaps hesitant because of ERAS and the extra screens needed to compensate for KOTFM's running time, but they'll pop up sooner rather than later. Feels a bit like ATSV where there was a big gap between expectation (supply) and performance (demand) and it took a while for it to more closely align, but with the competition mainly coming out before instead of after it, there will be no reason to hold back for OW

 

As for where it's headed, I suppose you can now count me in the "breakout" camp, in that I think the Sonic/JW4/Venom2 range of $70-$90M OW seems about right, with potential to go higher. Even though it's an original film, the known IP is making it perform more like a sequel, and though I do think the game nature and D&D with Peacock will make both the presales and IM more frontloaded, even a $9M Thursday and 8x gets to $72M

 

*my middle school daughter, out of the blue, asked me when FNAF (which she pronounced phonetically, Fa-naf) is coming out

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

1.381x) of Nun II~$4.28M THUR Previews

1.29x The Nun II: $3.98 Million

The Nun II

1.082x

=

$3.35m

0.89x of The Nun II in MiniTC2.

[Shawn Robbins]

23 hours ago, Shawn said:

Deadline's $30m for Exorcist comes from studio sources, but... I dunno. This is one I'd rather be careful on, much like Saw X last week, and be pleasantly surprised if it can significantly over-perform all of these data points in front of me. Going under for the final forecast today.

 

22 hours ago, M37 said:

 

 

16 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Exorcist: Believer (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	80	65	338	13929	2.43

 

 

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	23.81
3-Day:	73.33

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.29x The Nun II: $3.98 Million (23%, 128%)

Saw X: Missed

0.82x Insidious Red Door: $4.1 Million (37%, 152%)

1.1x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.37 Million (38%, 145%, Just Thursday)

2.45x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $1.84 Million (34%, 130%)

 

Comp Average: $2.82 Million

 

Comps are all over the place and I get that the sales window makes the growth rate comps a bit useless, but let's go with $2.75 Million, +/- 0.15. That would mean less than $30 Million OW with what I am assuming will be bad WOM, so I am going to join @Shawn's side on this one, sorry @M37.

I didn't realize @M37 had made an earlier post about being sold on $30M+ with a chance at $40M... my bad if it sounded like I was calling anyone out or taking sides.  

 

That said, if it misses, I don't think it'll be by much. If it goes over, maybe it can squeak past Nun II. It looks like final day pace was pretty solid, but the reviews (and trailers before those were available) have been keeping me on the conservative end for it. I feel like they're going to be more influential for a legacy franchise without the kind of built-in "younger" appeal of Nun/Conjuring, but we'll see.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

 

I didn't realize @M37 had made an earlier post about being sold on $30M+ with a chance at $40M... my bad if it sounded like I was calling anyone out or taking sides.  

 

That said, if it misses, I don't think it'll be by much. If it goes over, maybe it can squeak past Nun II. It looks like final day pace was pretty solid, but the reviews (and trailers before those were available) have been keeping me on the conservative end for it. I feel like they're going to be more influential for a legacy franchise without the kind of built-in "younger" appeal of Nun/Conjuring, but we'll see.