The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Arlborn]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

There's absolutely no way it keeps up pace with Barbie...Right???

 

That would be insane, and also very interesting because the audiences for both movies are wildly different, aren’t they?

[Cmasterclay]

Five Nights At Freddy Got Fingered

[keysersoze123]

The Exorcist Believer MTC1 - 50266/401420 932400.74 2153 shows

 

Ratio similar to Saw X means low 3s previews. Unlike Saw X this is seeing very high ATP.  

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Exorcist Believer MTC1 - 50266/401420 932400.74 2153 shows

 

Ratio similar to Saw X means low 3s previews. Unlike Saw X this is seeing very high ATP.  

yeah ATP seems too good to be true. I will take the norm $16. Seems like $2.75-3M.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

yeah ATP seems too good to be true. I will take the norm $16. Seems like $2.75-3M.

Looking at data. its mostly PLF. regular shows sold almost nothing. 

 

FYI Friday - 50163/775756 901421.81  4235 shows

 

Really good show count. But not feeling it doing that well with walkups. Thinking mid or high 20s OW. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

On 10/4/2023 at 9:20 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews - 29154/173786 405216.78 1230 shows

Friday - 30126/319091 418339.04 2093 shows

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews(T-21) - 31644/177567 440453.54 1255 shows +2490

Friday - 34069/327514 478476.49 +3943

 

Another really good day. Will have a great internal multi for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

On 10/4/2023 at 8:20 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday - 532109/795300 11249262.01 4766 shows

Saturday - 457238/1608138 9884927.82 9401 shows

 

Still no sign of final surge. Let us see how things go. 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-8) - 535189/795210 11312999.21 4766 shows

Saturday - 462513/1608651 9999352.57 9403 shows

 

Still no sign of acceleration.

[Boxofficerules]

5 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Five Nights At Freddy Got Fingered

Are the animatronics going to deliver a baby and swing it around by the umbilical cord?

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-57 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	10244	10721	477	4.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

31

 

0.08749x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

0.08732x the amount of tickets TET sold on D3 [355 vs 31]

 

Regal:     173/4145  [4.17% sold]

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-56 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	10217	10719	502	4.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

25

 

Comp against TET's D1 total:

0.09576x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

---

Daily Pace Check:

0.14368x the amount of tickets TET sold on D4 [174 vs 25]

 

Regal:     178/4145  [4.29% sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	152	11317	19815	8498	42.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

61

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	47.64		424	17839		0/311	20218/38057	46.87%		28183	30.15%		23.82m	34.54m
MoM	72.68		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	40.24%		26.16m	37.94m
Thor 4	111.08		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	50.10%		32.21m	46.71m
BP2	104.69		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	50.58%		29.31m	42.51m
AM3	152.40		257	5576		0/238	27218/32794	17.00%		10475	81.13%		26.67m	38.67m
GOTG3	200.47		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	79.05%		35.08m	50.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-9 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	177.00		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	72.28%
JWD	251.42		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	77.49%
Ava 2	232.12		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	94.57%
AtSV	327.73		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	87.21%
Barbie	263.10		302	3230		0/127	12791/16071	20.10%		12077	70.37%
Oppy	520.71		134	1632		0/65	7968/9600	17.00%		4621	183.90%
Barben	174.78		436	4862		0/192	20759/25671	18.94%		16698	50.89%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2383/6150  [38.75% sold]

 

====

 

The adage about catching a falling knife comes to mind for some reason...

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	152	11236	19813	8577	43.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

79

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	47.05		390	18229		0/325	20891/39120	46.60%		28183	30.43%		23.53m	34.11m
MoM	70.94		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	40.62%		25.54m	37.03m
Thor 4	108.10		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	50.57%		31.35m	45.46m
BP2	102.30		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	51.05%		28.64m	41.53m
AM3	148.31		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	81.88%		25.95m	37.63m
GOTG3	194.53		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	79.79%		34.04m	49.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-8 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	172.37		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	72.95%
JWD	240.18		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	78.21%
Ava 2	218.69		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	95.45%
AtSV	310.09		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		9744	88.02%
Barbie	234.22		432	3662		0/179	17666/21378	17.13%		12077	71.02%
Oppy	490.68		116	1748		0/72	8305/10053	17.39%		4621	185.61%
Barben	158.54		548	5410		0/251	25971/31431	17.21%		16698	51.37%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2395/6150  [38.94% sold]

 

===

 

A little under 30 of the tickets sold tonight went to a sole showing that was added recently in the 7pm corridor.  Which is... interesting. Might have been a group sale, might not have been.  Tough to tell, looking at the seat map.

 

Either way, as I said, "interesting." (in multiple directions, really)

[Porthos]

On 10/5/2023 at 1:01 AM, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	11078	12239	1161	9.49%

 

Total Showings Added Today	18
Total Seats Added Today	1917
Total Seats Sold Today	118

 

Day 4:

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	192.54		53	603		0/146	21460/22063	2.73%		4494	25.83%		14.44m
Wick4	150.39		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	21.31%		13.38m
AtSV	79.52		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	11.92%		13.80m
GOTG3	47.14		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	10.80%		8.25m
Flash	125.51		96	925		0/178	24217/25142	3.68%		5327	21.79%		12.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     325/3078  [10.56% sold]
Matinee:    128/926  [13.82% | 11.02% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Switching to T-x comps tomorrow.

 

****MAJOR WORD OF WARNING* FOR NEWBIES/LURKERS***

 

EVERY SINGLE COMP, EXCEPT THE GOTG3 ONE, ***WILL*** GO UP DUE TO DISPARITIES IN PRE-SALE WINDOW LENGTHS.  KEEP THAT IN MIND WHEN SEEING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WORTH OF CHARTS UNTIL THINGS STABILIZE!

 

Now that I have the ALL CAPS out of the way...

 

FNAF started at     T-25

---

BA        started at   T-21

Wick 4 started at   T-22

GOTG3 started at  T-31

AtSV started at      T-24

Flash started at     T-23

 

So the change will be somewhat marginal for Across the Spider-Verse and a little bit more for The Flash.  Will be decently significant for John Wick 4 and very significant (in opposite directions) for Black Adam and GOTG3.  Might have to drop BA and GOTG3 for a few days until things stabilize.   Just have to see how it goes.

 

 

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	101	13826	15048	1222	8.12%

 

Total Showings Added Today	15
Total Seats Added Today	2809
Total Seats Sold Today	61

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Wick4	186.00		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	22.43%		16.55m
AtSV	83.70		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	12.54%		14.52m
GOTG3	39.33		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		10750	11.37%		6.88m
Flash	147.41		71	829		0/174	23899/24728	3.35%		5327	22.94%		14.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     330/3078  [10.72% sold]
Matinee:    118/926  [12.74% | 9.66% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The GOTG3 comp wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it might be after the switch, so left it in.  Black Adam was waaaay too loltastic, unsurprisingly since it was its first day of sales, so it's being left off for a while.

 

Aside from that gonna be a few days for comps to stabilize so probs for the best to just ignore them for the most part (yeah yeah, "rush to reddit" already made that joke earlier today 😉 ).  Am curious, I must admit, to see just where they stabilize at during the U portion of the pre-sale curve.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Hilts]

8 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

There's absolutely no way it keeps up pace with Barbie...Right???

 

 

Without EA it is easily outpacing here, including EA seems to be a decent barometer at the moment considering how quickly those sold.

 

I doubt it keeps up later in the run due to the Barbenheimer effect but it is pretty nuts we are asking this question at any stage!

[vale9001]

I love how this year Is so full of surprises btw. Super Mario, Barbie and opp incredible surprising results. A concert movie no one knew until 5 weeks ago can make 100M+ OW and now a new horror movie with the potential of the same thing.

Hope Scorsese, Wonka and Napoleon can turn into big surprises too. 

We need originals and new things. 

Box office is exciting again to follow .

Edited October 6, 2023 by vale9001

[Truckasaurus]

I'm so sorry to interrupt the flow of the thread, but can someone tell me what ATP stands for? I only learned that IM meant Internal Multiplier last week.


On that note, is there a thread on this forum that serves as a dictionary for these terms that not all members might be aware of? Thanks in advance!

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Truckasaurus said:

I'm so sorry to interrupt the flow of the thread, but can someone tell me what ATP stands for? I only learned that IM meant Internal Multiplier last week.


On that note, is there a thread on this forum that serves as a dictionary for these terms that not all members might be aware of? Thanks in advance!

Average Ticket Price

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Truckasaurus said:

I'm so sorry to interrupt the flow of the thread, but can someone tell me what ATP stands for? I only learned that IM meant Internal Multiplier last week.


On that note, is there a thread on this forum that serves as a dictionary for these terms that not all members might be aware of? Thanks in advance!

 

I'm not aware of a singular post that has all the information. But, no one really minds if you ask questions on the data. People are usually happy to provide clarification, or receive feedback to make it clearer if possible. 

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-8

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 125 (+18)

Seats sold - 6874

Total seats - 20734

% sold - 33.2%

New sales - 205 (+3.1%)

 

Buncha new shows. I think they were added to Fandango between Mon-Wed (I check manually). But they also could've been selling tickets on their own websites for awhile. They account for like 90 of the new sales. 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-7

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 125

Seats sold - 6970

Total seats - 20734

% sold - 33.6%

New sales - 96 (+1.4%)

 

Weekly growth

 

T-34 to T-28: +376 (+7.7%)

T-27 to T-21: +240 (+4.5%)

T-20 to T-14: +576 (+10.1%)

T-13 to T-7: +712 (+11.4%)

 

Been pacing better here than elsewhere. But a bad day at this stage. Idk how disasterous pace is for OD because the comps are so bipolar. Would like to see better though. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by jeffthehat

[Jsmitty]

2.85M Previews for EX Believer (Deadline)

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/4/2023 at 6:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Comps are all over the place and I get that the sales window makes the growth rate comps a bit useless, but let's go with $2.75 Million, +/- 0.15

The Exorcist: Believer’ Delivers $2.9M in Box Office Previews

 

Once in a blue moon happened, just within my range!!

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Killers of the Flower Moon T-15: 35.58% Awareness

The Holdovers T-36: 15.39%

Next Goal Wins T-43: 13.89%

Thanksgiving T-43: 20.29%

Wish T-48: 32.06%

Poor Things T-64: 17.06%

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-76: 52.63%

The Beekeeper T-99: 24.8%

 

The Exorcist: Believer T-1: 54.99% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 41% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-8: 44.74% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M