The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Relevation said:

Yeah like I don’t expect that to hold given you’re comparing 9 days to 1, but that is REALLY good if it can hold. $3.79M would be by far the biggest non-Frozen II previews for a WDAS film ever

 

Averaging out Encanto and Strange World’s IMs from TUE to their 5-days gets me around 25x, so if Wish can do that off $3.79M previews, you’re talking a magnificent $94.75M 5-day opening

you are taking a sample which includes 1 theater which will over index huge and went way overboard. FYI it sold slightly more than 2K tickets at entire MTC2 !!! There is nothing in the data that indicates this is breaking out huge. Definitely not from one sample in Orlando. 

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26569	27574	1005	3.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	64.84		71	1550		0/96	13991/15541	9.97%		6409	15.68%		6.96m
GOTG3	29.91		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		10750	9.35%		5.23m
TLM	86.64		55	1160		0/153	21416/22576	5.14%		6561	15.32%		8.92m
AtSV	59.75		81	1682		0/123	18234/19916	8.45%		9744	10.31%		10.37m
Flash	99.50		34	1010		0/178	24138/25148	4.02%		5327	18.87%		9.65m
Indy 5	94.99		35	1058		0/124	18463/19521	5.42%		4767	21.08%		6.84m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     145/8661  [1.67% sold]
Matinee:    36/2547  [1.41% | 3.58% of all tickets sold]
3D:            65/5021  [1.29% | 6.47% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26487	27574	1087	3.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

82

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	67.14		69	1619		0/96	13922/15541	10.42%		6409	16.96%		7.21m
GOTG3	31.66		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		10750	10.11%		5.54m
TLM	88.66		66	1226		0/153	21353/22579	5.43%		6561	16.57%		9.13m
AtSV	62.40		60	1742		0/123	18177/19919	8.75%		9744	11.16%		10.83m
Flash	100.46		72	1082		0/178	24066/25148	4.30%		5327	20.41%		9.74m
Indy 5	98.28		48	1106		0/125	18415/19521	5.67%		4767	22.80%		7.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     153/8661  [1.77% sold]
Matinee:    39/2547  [1.53% | 3.59% of all tickets sold]
3D:            70/5021  [1.39% | 6.44% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Just a great day today, locally, with strong sales up and down the region.

 

Maybe @M37 is on to something with his whole "What matters is being reminded by social media chatter That Something Exists" rather than the actual reason for the chatter. 

 

(or it was just a Inexplicable One Day Blip — to-may-TOE/toe-MAH-to)

((or it's the start of a trend!!!))

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	159	18168	21466	3298	15.36%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	234
Total Seats Sold Today	242

 

T-4 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	174.87		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	73.39%		13.12m
Scrm6	261.33		115	1262		0/78	8602/9864	12.79%		3134	105.23%		14.90m
Wick4	143.08		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	60.54%		12.73m
AtSV	83.64		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	33.85%		14.51m
GOTG3	57.67		506	5719		0/227	26231/31950	17.90%		10750	30.68%		10.09m
TLM	107.95		358	3055		0/177	22304/25359	12.05%		6561	50.27%		11.12m
Flash	150.18		173	2196		0/178	22946/25142	8.73%		5327	61.91%		14.57m
Barbie	58.22		625	5665		1/180	16083/21748	26.05%		12077	27.31%		12.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     696/4688  [14.85% sold]
Matinee:    246/926  [26.57% | 7.46% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeah, I ain't gonna lie here; would have liked to see a stronger Sat->Sun jump.  It did do relatively well against the Across the Spider-Verse comp, but that was being dragged down by MDW (with Sunday acting like a pseudo/quasi Super Saturday).

 

See if it was just a one day blip locally, but could be the relative frontloading + not having reviews/social media reactions out yet finally rearing its head.  Also could just be a one day blip.

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	209	22434	26130	3696	14.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today	61
Total Seats Added Today	4664
Total Seats Sold Today	398

 

T-3 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	170.17		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	82.24%		12.76m
Scrm6	244.28		251	1513		0/102	10725/12238	12.36%		3134	117.93%		13.92m
Wick4	139.63		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	67.84%		12.43m
AtSV	82.89		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	37.93%		14.38m
GOTG3	58.61		587	6306		0/273	29558/35864	17.58%		10750	34.38%		10.26m
TLM	104.50		482	3537		0/201	24221/27758	12.74%		6561	56.33%		10.76m
Flash	153.17		217	2413		0/193	23824/26237	9.20%		5327	69.38%		14.86m
Barbie	56.23		908	6573		1/180	19138/25711	25.56%		12077	30.60%		12.54m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     786/6616  [11.88% sold]
Matinee:    254/2558  [9.93% | 6.87% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Better day today than yesterday.   And, yes, that increased show count is accurate.  Might even still go up if a couple of hold out theaters expand.

 

Not quite sure where this is pacing to, locally, but I do think one thing should be noted that might not have received the attention it deserves:

 

FNAF IS SELLING *VERY* WELL FOR 10PM AND LATER SHOWINGS.

 

Well, relatively speaking.  But honestly, seeing any sales in the late night corridor is noteworthy, and this is doing much much better than most in that time frame.  Fairly obvious why, I would think.  

 

Which should bode well for walkups on Thursday, and might not be caught by local trackers if it is indeed proportionately heavier than most Preview Late Night walkups that come in after end of various tracking reports.  That last point might only matter around the edges, but it is something I'll be thinking about on Thursday as I see the final sales roll in.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/14/2023 at 11:13 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

FNAF MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Previews - 5334/62850 (247 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Barbie - $23.8M

2.81x Oppenheimer - $26.25M (Adj for ATP)
1.16x Avatar 2 - $17.5M (Adj for ATP)
2.40x Eternals - $22.8M

2.24x The Flash - $21.7M

Still growing for Barbie comp. LOL.

Friday - 2081/61868 (241 showings)

 

Comps
0.64x Barbie - $30.9M

1.82x The Flash - $26.6M

 

Pretty Great result. I am obviously over-indexing for this which does happen at times for horror films but still LOL. The usual overindexing should still see these comps around $17-18M for THU. 
 

FNAF MiniTC2 T-3 Days

Previews - 14012/79785 (313 showings)

 

Comps

0.97x Barbie - $21.5M
3.04x Oppenheimer - $28M (Adj for ATP)
1.52x Avatar 2 - $23.5M (Adj for ATP)
3.07x Eternals - $30M

3.24x The Flash - $31M

 

[Boxofficerules]

FNAF is out tomorrow, how are there no reviews or reactions yet? Less than 24 hours to go.

[SpiderByte]

16 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

FNAF is out tomorrow, how are there no reviews or reactions yet? Less than 24 hours to go.

The embargo is scheduled for the day after release.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-18, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 529

New sales: 17

Growth: 3.3%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 13.6

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.556x of ATSV for $9.6M

 

Still not much. And with Halloween coming up, I don't expect too much over the next week.

 

The Marvels, T-17, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 546

New sales: 17

Growth: 3.2%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 13.6

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.523x of ATSV for $9.1M

 

Still nothing.

 

The lack of any trigger event other than the late review embargo is concerning.  This feels like a boring track so far, and honestly, I'm hoping we see something happen here just to make it interesting.

 

[tdangie]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

FNAF is out tomorrow, how are there no reviews or reactions yet? Less than 24 hours to go.

I think you asked this already? We'll already be seeing reactions on the 25th from the early screenings (UK, Mexico, and Blumhouse fan screenings). There's also an embargo that opens on the 26th but that doesn't apply to everyone.

Edited October 24, 2023 by tdangie

[Relevation]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are taking a sample which includes 1 theater which will over index huge and went way overboard. FYI it sold slightly more than 2K tickets at entire MTC2 !!! There is nothing in the data that indicates this is breaking out huge. Definitely not from one sample in Orlando. 

I agree, $3.79M is kind of a meme comp and the expectation should not be for that to actually pan out

 

 

BUT…

It doesn’t need to crack $3.8M to be considered a breakout imo. The IM for this will be massive to the extent where beating Elemental at all is a successful omen IMO 

[M37]

On 10/23/2023 at 7:41 AM, M37 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-4 Update

Not really enough new data points to update the chart, though the average is in roughly the same ~$13M spot (before adjusting for ATP). With that said, the sales growth over the weekend was ... shall we say uninspiring. The pace fell back into a range that includes two sets of divergent comps: the Indy/Avatar grouping, which had softer final days due in large part to a more mature audience, and the Scream IV/Fast X range, franchise films which - for differing reasons - had already plucked a lot of the lower hanging sales opportunity and so ramped up more slowly, yet still had solid, walk-up friendly finishes.

 

Given the nature of FNAF, skewing to a younger audience and to the non-fan base still a horror film, definitely leaning towards the Scream VI/Fast X trajectory from here, but even that path does lower the ceiling for Thursday. Need to see 1-2 more days of data to be able to project finals with some precision, but right now I'm definitely leaning under on that $13M average

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-3 Update

Enough new data points to update the chart:

 

Not gonna lie, this is a bit messy, in part because comps are generally grouped very closely together - increasing confidence in the values - but also moving in different directions, which adds a layer of uncertainty. Average his dipped a bit to ~$12.75, and MTC1 is still on the low end (~$11M), so from here ~$12M Thursday seems like a good target to me (after adjusting for ATP)

 

There is good reason in the data to be not concerned, but certainly hesitant on projecting too high; pace since T-7 isn't quite where one might hope. However, FNAF has had a weird daily sales pattern, probably in large part because its a fan-driven IP - basically a YA film - to much of the audience, but much more a generic PG13 horror film to the GA. In terms of daily and multi-day pace, the closest comp I have been able to find is: Jurassic World Dominion. That's a notorious walk-up monster, which also has an atypical market skew including underindexing at MTC1. Just wanted to throw that out there in case we do see a huge final push, for Thursday and/or Friday

[keysersoze123]

On 10/23/2023 at 6:58 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Five Night at Freddy's

Friday - 114909/447601 1696214.93 2923 shows

Five Night at Freddy's Friday - 133086/582632 1958340.30 3851 shows +18177

 

Another great day. Should be 250K+ by friday morning. Plus looking at how strong MTC2 friday also is, 30m True friday is in play at this point or higher. 

[M37]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Night at Freddy's Friday - 133086/582632 1958340.30 3851 shows +18177

 

Another great day. Should be 250K+ by friday morning. Plus looking at how strong MTC2 friday also is, 30m True friday is in play at this point or higher. 

For reference & comparison

 

GOTG3 Friday ($30.6M TFri) [$141/tix PSM]

Quote

MTC1 Fri(T-4) - 127917/1318554 2206272.49 7262 shows +15373

MTC1 (T-3) - 146071/1378257 2495973.03 7732 shows +18154

MTC1 (T-2) - 173403/1386380 2930289.57 7797 shows +27332

Guardians Friday MTC1 (T-0) - 217053/1391700 3603686.49 7874 shows +43650

 

ATSV Friday ($34.5M TFri) [$125.6/tix PSM]

Quote

ATSV MTC1 Friday- 107042/925931 1886447.98 4606 shows

ATSV MTC1 Friday - 140653/1156323 2445864.89 6329 shows +33611

 

Spiderverse MTC1 Friday PS Final - 274568/1211561 4498223.74 6794 shows 

 

Even if you split the difference on pace/PSM there, if we do indeed get to 250K by Friday morning, seems like $30M TFri would be nearly a given, with $35M in play if it leans more towards the ATSV pace with a GOTG3 type market share

 

EDIT: Fwiw, my working number for total OD is ~$45M ($12 + $33), and I think if it falls short it will be because of ATP, not admissions/ticket sales

 

Also, while thread diving for these numbers, found this exchange in regards two particular June releases to be particularly interesting after the fact (CC @Porthos)

Edited October 24, 2023 by M37

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Night at Freddy's Friday - 133086/582632 1958340.30 3851 shows +18177

 

Another great day. Should be 250K+ by friday morning. Plus looking at how strong MTC2 friday also is, 30m True friday is in play at this point or higher. 

Can you make the Saturday/Sunday to see if the movie is really based just in OD or he can have a good hold during the weekend

[Gabe0mazing]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

In terms of daily and multi-day pace, the closest comp I have been able to find is: Jurassic World Dominion. That's a notorious walk-up monster

So where would that comp get it to in most places? 13-14M? I know it might be unlikely that FNAF has walkups that strong, but it’s worth comping if that’s the closest to its pattern.

[Grand Cine]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

For reference & comparison

 

GOTG3 Friday ($30.6M TFri) [$141/tix PSM]

 

ATSV Friday ($34.5M TFri) [$125.6/tix PSM]

 

Even if you split the difference on pace/PSM there, if we do indeed get to 250K by Friday morning, seems like $30M TFri would be nearly a given, with $35M in play if it leans more towards the ATSV pace with a GOTG3 type market share

 

Also, while thread diving for these numbers, found this exchange in regards two particular June releases to be particularly interesting after the fact (CC @Porthos)

I think the guardians 3 is the better comp for FNAF but Horror Movie is really solid in day before or the day opened ( maybe better than blockbuster movies so i think 30M True Friday will happen so depend of Saturday/Sunday we could have a weekend between 85-90M which is insane

[M37]

9 minutes ago, Gabe0mazing said:

So where would that comp get it to in most places? 13-14M? I know it might be unlikely that FNAF has walkups that strong, but it’s worth comping if that’s the closest to its pattern.

Interestingly, the same ~$12M range, but that's without adjusting up for ticket price increases over 18 months, and then back down for lower PLF/higher child share (but that may not be as much of a delta for that particular film as opposed to the MCU fare and other PLF heavy comps).

 

It was more a reference to how the next few days may go, the trajectory, as opposed to the final end point. Even if FNAF slides against other comps through T-1,the potential of JWD-like final day is something to be watchful of, as opposed to an ATSV which had a softer final day than overall pace would have suggested

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-16):

 

658 tickets sold at 10 Houston AMC's/+16 YD

 

Comps:

 

0.76 x [EA + (D-16) PV] of MI7 = $5.35m

 

1.36 x (D-16) MI7 = $9.5m

 

1.89 x (D-16) Indiana Jones 5 = $13.6m

 

[Austin]

Just out of genuine curiousity, how might one go about tracking? Like, how to start? I don't know if there's a post or thread about this somewhere but I was just considering maybe getting into tracking myself.

[jeffthehat]

16 minutes ago, Austin said:

Just out of genuine curiousity, how might one go about tracking? Like, how to start? I don't know if there's a post or thread about this somewhere but I was just considering maybe getting into tracking myself.

 

1. Pick a region or chain that you're curious about

 

2. Pick some theaters from your region/chain and count how many tickets are sold in that theater each day (these are represented by X's when you go to checkout on Fandango or the TC website). You can do this manually or with a program if you code. The more you can count, the more accurate your results. 

 

3. Keep track of the daily sales in a spreadsheet and analyze the growth over time and/or how many tickets have been sold vs. another movie at the same time (aka a "comp")

 

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by jeffthehat

[vafrow]

7 minutes ago, Austin said:

Just out of genuine curiousity, how might one go about tracking? Like, how to start? I don't know if there's a post or thread about this somewhere but I was just considering maybe getting into tracking myself.

 

I don't think there's a definitive starting point, but, I can share what I did.

 

Back in March or so, I started tracking what films were at for final tickets sold for Thursday previews. I didn't bother posting much, as it was my own point of reference. I would always look at my local theatre to see how things were selling, so I figured i should record it somewhere.

 

I made a simple Google Sheet that I could access from my phone and just input numbers. I expanded to take a count at the beginning of the day and near showtimes to measure walk ups. I started making posts that would give that detail.

 

Eventually, I expanded to take daily totals. Still kept with my one local theatre, and did that over the summer. Again, just with a Google sheet, and typed up a summary each time (copying and pasting my previous post to keep a format). I'd do the simple math with basic formulas to measure against comps.

 

I expanded for a broader radius for a while until the app I used changed and made it harder to tell how many seats are sold (it used to display totals when previewing a theatre, and now I have to manually count).

 

I've since restarted to do manual counts, but limited the theatres I track to 10.

 

Others do more elaborate tracking, using scripts that scrape data on mass from ticket sites. That doesn't work for me for a few reasons, but yields a much bigger and more reliable sample.

 

Best advice is to find what works for you. Start small and don't overdo it. 

 

Often, the biggest challenge is making the post and formatting data. I avoid tables for that reason.

 

Also, for anything you do, people here are highly encouraging, and, I think the general consensus is that any additional data is good data. If you ask for feedback, people will usually provide some.